2022 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[CDu]

This is a much different situation than Carter/Bagley. The Carter's beef was that did not know Duke was also recruiting Bagley as a possible reclass player. They thought the message of how Carter would be utilized and feature at Duke changed once Bagley committed.

Flip openly has recruited Lively to play with him at Duke... much different

This, and also that Filipowski and Lively have much more complementary skill sets. Carter and Bagley were a lot more similar in their skill sets, which made it harder to showcase both players' strengths. Not that Carter had a bad season or anything, but it was pretty hard to run the offense through Carter when they were running the offense through Bagley and Allen.

With Lively, he isn't really a guy you run the offense through. He's a bit more like Mark Williams (a bit more willing to shoot from the perimeter than Williams, but still mainly a rimrunner and lob lurker). Filipowski is a much more offensive-minded player, so to the extent that they run offense through a big it will be Filipowski getting those touches first.

[SkyBrickey]

I know Bagley has had some injury issues but it’s interesting watching the trajectory of Bagley vs Carter in the NBA. Carter put up really strong numbers last season at ORL: 15 ppg, 10 rpg, 3 apg. I’m very interested to see how he and Paolo coexist. Both are big, skilled guys but as Jason pointed out on the podcast, Carter is not an elite rim protector who can erase Palio’s defensive mistakes. But on the offensive end, they may play off each other really well - both are willing passers.

Yes, this is a long detour from 2022 recruits…

[flyingdutchdevil]

I know Bagley has had some injury issues but it’s interesting watching the trajectory of Bagley vs Carter in the NBA. Carter put up really strong numbers last season at ORL: 15 ppg, 10 rpg, 3 apg. I’m very interested to see how he and Paolo coexist. Both are big, skilled guys but as Jason pointed out on the podcast, Carter is not an elite rim protector who can erase Palio’s defensive mistakes. But on the offensive end, they may play off each other really well - both are willing passers.

Yes, this is a long detour from 2022 recruits…

Carter is a true C in the NBA. He probably could play some 4, but he's better suited for the C.

Paolo is a versatile 4 who is likely going to take a lot of 3s (whether he makes them is a different question).

I think they can easily coexist, given Carter is a defensive big who can rebound can score internally vs Paolo is a 3-level scorer with playmaking abilities.

I like the pairing a lot.

[DavidBenAkiva]

To add to the way-off-topic discussion, Carter shot 32.7% from 3 on 1.5 attempts per game last season, which isn't bad. He also improved a ton in pick-and-roll on the offensive end, pairing nicely with Cole Anthony in particular. He's a big body but is pretty mobile and can be effective operating on the wings and either flashing for an open jumper or rolling to the rim. Carter is also a good passer for a 5. I think he and Paolo could play off each other very well as teammates.

[JasonEvans]

Carter is a true C in the NBA. He probably could play some 4, but he's better suited for the C.

Paolo is a versatile 4 who is likely going to take a lot of 3s (whether he makes them is a different question).

I think they can easily coexist, given Carter is a defensive big who can rebound can score internally vs Paolo is a 3-level scorer with playmaking abilities.

I like the pairing a lot.

Ummmm, not so sure I agree with this. I'm not saying Wendell is a bad defender, far from it, but in a league where plenty of bigs get paid big bucks to do little more than protect the paint, he ain't exactly a defensive stalwart.

Wendell averaged 0.7 blocks per game last season. That was 89th best in the league and one of the worst block percentages of any starting center. His DRating (points scored per 100 possessions while he was on the floor) was 110, which is not awful but good either. It has been in that area throughout his career. Now, Wendell does excel at individual defense. His rim defense was -11.3%, this means that players he defends shoot 11.3% worse against him than they do on average when taking a shot within 6 feet of the basket. That is a truly outstanding number, among the top 5% in the NBA. But, he is in the bottom 15% of all players in the league at deflections and is also below average when switched onto a smaller player. He is, as you note, a good -- though not great -- defensive rebounder.

Bottom line, I don't see Wendell as much more than a middle-of-the-pack defensive center. If, as many expect, Paolo also struggles on defense then it puts Orlando in the position of having two bigs who are *at best* average defenders out there. That is not a formula for being a really successful NBA team. Wendell and Paolo will need to really make up for it with their offensive play if Orlando is to be anywhere close to the playoff hunt next year.

-Jason "I do think Paolo will put up some eye-popping offensive stats in Orlando" Evans

[JasonEvans]

By the way, one more interesting note about Wendell Carter, Jr...

When he and Orlando agreed to a 4-year extension prior to last season, everyone focused on the bottom line dollar figure -- $50 mil, an average of $12.5 mil per season. But Orlando did something interesting with that deal. They made the annual salaries decline each season so the contract gets more and more team-friendly over time and gives Orlando a bit more cap space each year. Wendell is being paid $14,150,000 this coming season, then $13,050,000 in 2023-24, $11,950,000 in 24-25, and $10,850,000 in 25-26.

The Magic have some interesting decisions to make regarding the cap (RFA Mo Bamba is the most vexing problem, I suspect) but I think they will be quite pleased with Wendell's contract for the duration.

[jimsumner]

Ummmm, not so sure I agree with this. I'm not saying Wendell is a bad defender, far from it, but in a league where plenty of bigs get paid big bucks to do little more than protect the paint, he ain't exactly a defensive stalwart.

Wendell averaged 0.7 blocks per game last season. That was 89th best in the league and one of the worst block percentages of any starting center. His DRating (points scored per 100 possessions while he was on the floor) was 110, which is not awful but good either. It has been in that area throughout his career. Now, Wendell does excel at individual defense. His rim defense was -11.3%, this means that players he defends shoot 11.3% worse against him than they do on average when taking a shot within 6 feet of the basket. That is a truly outstanding number, among the top 5% in the NBA. But, he is in the bottom 15% of all players in the league at deflections and is also below average when switched onto a smaller player. He is, as you note, a good -- though not great -- defensive rebounder.

Bottom line, I don't see Wendell as much more than a middle-of-the-pack defensive center. If, as many expect, Paolo also struggles on defense then it puts Orlando in the position of having two bigs who are *at best* average defenders out there. That is not a formula for being a really successful NBA team. Wendell and Paolo will need to really make up for it with their offensive play if Orlando is to be anywhere close to the playoff hunt next year.

-Jason "I do think Paolo will put up some eye-popping offensive stats in Orlando" Evans

Does Mo Bamba factor in here? Are we assuming he and Orlando are parting ways?

[flyingdutchdevil]

By the way, one more interesting note about Wendell Carter, Jr...

When he and Orlando agreed to a 4-year extension prior to last season, everyone focused on the bottom line dollar figure -- $50 mil, an average of $12.5 mil per season. But Orlando did something interesting with that deal. They made the annual salaries decline each season so the contract gets more and more team-friendly over time and gives Orlando a bit more cap space each year. Wendell is being paid $14,150,000 this coming season, then $13,050,000 in 2023-24, $11,950,000 in 24-25, and $10,850,000 in 25-26.

The Magic have some interesting decisions to make regarding the cap (RFA Mo Bamba is the most vexing problem, I suspect) but I think they will be quite pleased with Wendell's contract for the duration.

No idea what the Magic or Bamba will do, but this is not a good sign: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...rn-by-mo-bamba

[TywinBlue]

Bye Bye GG...

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...lina-gamecocks

[Daddylawman]

Bye Bye GG...

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...lina-gamecocks

As the father of a UofSC grad this is a second best outcome.