Bates is a major outlier of a recruitment considering all the unknowns surrounding the OAD rule. He’s widely considered a LeBron-level high school prospect, and given the recent assumptions that OAD would be phased out soon most assumed he’d be going straight to the NBA. In fact, no other high major program appeared to put significant time into recruiting Bates besides Tom Izzo, partly because he’s a local prospect.
Considering how early this commitment is and how much could change in the next two years, I think it’s wise to view this as a “soft” commitment. If OAD goes away Bates would be a prime candidate to skip school. He could also do that to the G-league depending on how that develops. Or, if the tea leaves start shifting towards OAD sticking around, it wouldn’t surprise me if other programs start to kick the tires. There are a LOT of coaches who have a better track record than Izzo on getting top-tier prospects into the NBA...