I think we'll start seeing movement on the Class of 2022 once the Class of 2021 is wrapped up. Duke has offers out to Patrick Baldwin and Trevor Keels for the Class of '21. Baldwin won't stay beyond a year, but Keels could. Should Duke miss on Keels, there is the potential of pivoting to another uncommitted guard, like TyTy Washington. If not, then a transfer could be in the cards. There will be many, many transfers on the market this summer and the NCAA has indicated they will pass a one-time transfer exception. Furthermore, the ACC has announced it will not block players from transferring within the conference. Prepare for a lot of player movement.
All things being equal, I think Duke will be quiet on the transfer market. They may bring in a grad transfer, like Patrick Tapé, to provide insurance in case Mark Williams or Paolo Banchero suffer an injury. Either way, that shouldn't affect the Class of 2022.
If we are talking about needs, I see Duke having the following players in the mix for roster spots in 2022-23
SR: Joey Baker (granted an exception for a 5th year by NCAA due to COVID), Wendell Moore
JR: Jaemyn Brakefield, Henry Coleman, Jeremy Roach, Mark Williams
SO: Trevor Keels/Another SG
FR: TBD
I'm penciling in these players. Baker could decide to graduate or transfer if he wants to start. Mark Williams really impressed late in the season this year, so a sophomore blow-up is possible. Still, his family really values education and he's quite young. Getting physically ready for the NBA with his height and frame is going to take time. He could see value growing into an All-American candidate as a junior and earn a degree within 3 years. I'd say it's a 50/50 bet at this point he sticks around 3 years. Brakefield and Coleman seem like 3-4 year players to me, which is great. I think both can contribute and could play off each other nicely as a small-ball frontcourt of bigger wing options. Imagine a starting lineup with Coleman and Williams as juniors. The rebounding and shot blocking of that duo would be awesome. I see Jeremy Roach as a 3-4 year point guard, too. His shot improved late in the year, but he needs to develop the point guard instincts. He has the talent to become a really good player in my mind. Next year's team is going to have a number of scoring options. I could see Roach being one of the best point guards in the college game as a junior or senior. Keels, should he commit, I don't know if he will start ahead of DJ Steward next year. I think DJ is going to be battling Paolo for the scoring lead on the team. Keels is a bigger guard and Steward could slide to PG for times, but I don't think he'll have the path to play enough on the roster as a freshman to get a good look from NBA scouts. From what I've seen, he's a great all-around player without that one outstanding skillset. That speaks multi-year player to me. I would love to see a sophomore Keels with this roster around him. He and Roach could form one of the best backcourts in the country. I haven't even talked about Moore. I am still on the long-term Moore bandwagon and see him becoming a great glue guy or more, a player that scores 15+ points, shoots 35-38% from 3, defends multiple positions, etc.
If that all comes to pass, there won't be many starting spots for the Class of 2022. Duke will need to identify a couple of players that will be cool playing behind this experienced roster for a year or two. There will be players like that, in the top 25-50 range, that would love a Duke offer. I see PG and C as needs with a couple of wings and forwards mixed in to develop into rotation players as sophomores and beyond. We should start to see names emerge later this spring and summer as the AAU circuit returns. Until then, the Class of 2022 should be quiet.