2022 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[Kedsy]

As to the championship game, I’m confident Duke would have comfortably handled Georgia Tech, much like UConn did.

FWIW, Duke beat Ga Tech two out of three that season, but the one loss was in Durham, so you never know. Also, I believe there have only been three NCAA championship games between two teams from the same conference, and in two of the three, a major underdog won the game. So a Duke/Ga Tech championship game might have been more competitive than many people think.

[mr. synellinden]

FWIW, Duke beat Ga Tech two out of three that season, but the one loss was in Durham, so you never know. Also, I believe there have only been three NCAA championship games between two teams from the same conference, and in two of the three, a major underdog won the game. So a Duke/Ga Tech championship game might have been more competitive than many people think.

An analysis of KenPom data suggests otherwise. Of course that's why they play the games, but according to the KenPom ratings for that year, Duke would have been a strong favorite. Duke was far and away the best KenPom ranked team that year. The spread between them and the #2 team (UConn) was as large as the spread between #2 and #11 (UNC).

Here are all the KenPom spreads (post-championship game because that's what they list) for National Championship games and what the spread would have been if Duke had beaten UConn.

2021 - Gonzaga -2.61 Baylor
2019 - Virginia - 4.19 Texas Tech
2018 - Villanova - 9.56 Michigan
2017 - Gonzaga -3.83 UNC
2016 - Villanova - 2.19 UNC
2015 - Wisconsin - .24 Duke
2014 - Kentucky - .42 Connecticut
2013 - Louisville - 5.06 Michigan
2012 - Kentucky - 5.69 Kansas
2011 - Connecticut - 7.47 Butler
2010 - Duke - 10.74 Butler
2009 - UNC - 6.77 Michigan St.
2008 - Kansas - 3.70 Memphis
2007 - Florida - 1.48 Ohio St.
2006 - Florida - 4.88 UCLA
2005 - UNC -.09 Illinois

2004 - Duke - 7.64 Georgia Tech [???]

2003 - Kansas - 5.33 Syracuse
2002 - Maryland - 4.45 Indiana

I'm hoping I got all my math right because I did it quickly. A few interesting data points here:

If you count 2014 and 2015 as virtual KenPom pick 'ems, then only three real KenPom underdogs have won in the last 20 years. 2003 Syracuse, which was a big underdog (but not quite as big an underdog as Ga. Tech would have been), and Gonzaga 2021 and 2018.

Duke 2010 was the biggest favorite and came pretty close to losing, so of course it would have been possible to lose to Ga. Tech - again, that's why they play the games.

But, other than Kansas in 2003, every KenPom favorite of 4 points or more won the title. (9/10).

If you are a Gonzaga fan and look at this list it might make you feel worse than you already do.

In sum, based on this data (Duke being a 7.6 point KenPom favorite) you could argue that there was a better than 90% chance Duke would have won the title against Ga. Tech.

[revmel53]

Back to recruiting, I'm holding my breath until the first commit for '22. Seems like Scheyer will offer more players each year, and will alter plans as first one or two commit. Can't wait for first one! Go Blue Devils!

[bullettoothtony]

Back to recruiting, I'm holding my breath until the first commit for '22. Seems like Scheyer will offer more players each year, and will alter plans as first one or two commit. Can't wait for first one! Go Blue Devils!

Who will be the first?

[House P]

I'm hoping I got all my math right because I did it quickly.

...

In sum, based on this data (Duke being a 7.6 point KenPom favorite) you could argue that there was a better than 90% chance Duke would have won the title against Ga. Tech.

Good post. Hopefully you don't consider it rude if I mention a potential missed step in your methodology.

It appears that you calculated the KenPom spread based on the difference in AdjEM between Duke and Georgia Tech. My understanding is that this overestimates the predicted point spread because AdjEM is based on points per 100 possessions and the average college game has less than 70 possessions. In 2004 Duke averaged 67.7 possessions per game and Georgia Tech averaged 69.1, so you could expect that a Duke-Georgia Tech game would have about 68.5 possessions.

Therefore, KenPom would probably have made Duke about a 5.2 point favorite (7.6 x 0.685 = 5.2). Duke would still have been a clear favorite, but the odds of Duke winning would have probably been be closer to 70%.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Back to recruiting, I'm holding my breath until the first commit for '22. Seems like Scheyer will offer more players each year, and will alter plans as first one or two commit. Can't wait for first one! Go Blue Devils!

I don't think we are going to see much of a change in the approach to recruiting. Right now, it appears the coaching staff has settled on a core group of players and extended offers to them. If they get those guys, I wouldn't expect many more offers to come.

Offers:
6'7" G/F Antony Black
7'1" C Dereck Lively
6'8" F Mark Mitchell
6'2" G JJ Starling
6'6" G/F Dariq Whitehead

Visitors:
6'10" F Kyle Filipowski

I expect Filipowski will receive a scholarship offer when he visits next weekend or shortly before.

From what I've read, Duke appears to be in good shape with most or all of these recruits. It's not a done deal, but these are the primary targets right now.

[Kedsy]

An analysis of KenPom data suggests otherwise. Of course that's why they play the games, but according to the KenPom ratings for that year, Duke would have been a strong favorite. Duke was far and away the best KenPom ranked team that year. The spread between them and the #2 team (UConn) was as large as the spread between #2 and #11 (UNC).

* * *

I'm hoping I got all my math right because I did it quickly.

* * *

In sum, based on this data (Duke being a 7.6 point KenPom favorite) you could argue that there was a better than 90% chance Duke would have won the title against Ga. Tech.

Well, House P mentioned the biggest math issue. It's also worth noting that post-tournament numbers are often misleading when evaluating what would have happened because what actually did happen is baked into those numbers. Pre-tournament, Duke was still KenPom #1 (31.7279 adj margin), while UConn was #5 (25.8489) and Georgia Tech was #6 (24.8537). Applying approximate pace to those numbers, Duke would have been approximately a 4.7 point favorite over GaT but was almost the same (approximately a 4.0 point favorite) over UConn. And we all know what actually happened in the UConn game.

But all that misses my original point, which was Georgia Tech may have had a better upset chance because they played in the same conference as Duke. As I mentioned earlier, GaTech had already beaten Duke that season. At Cameron. They were better prepared to play us than other 4.7 point underdogs. Two of the biggest upsets in NCAA tournament history were Villanova over Georgetown in the championship game in 1985 and Kansas over Oklahoma in the championship game in 1988. I don't think either of those upsets happen if those teams hadn't each played twice before in those seasons.

If you expand to all Final Four games, by my count teams from the same conference have played 9 times in the history of the Final Four. In one game, both teams were #1 seeds. In the other eight, four seed-favorites won and four seed-favorites lost. Again, I think the underdog had a better chance than you'd expect to win because they were familiar with the favorite after playing a full conference season.

I'm just saying we can't just assume we would have won a game against Georgia Tech if we'd managed to escape UConn. Not that it matters, obviously.

[sagegrouse]

I'm just saying we can't just assume we would have won a game against Georgia Tech if we'd managed to escape UConn. Not that it matters, obviously.

I am assuming we would have won easily. Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State were God-awful in the semis. And, in the finals against UConn, didn't the Huskies go out to 30-point lead before GT made it somewhat more respectable at the end?

Which makes nothing certain, but explains my reasoning.

[Bluedog]

Here are all the KenPom spreads (post-championship game because that's what they list) for National Championship games and what the spread would have been if Duke had beaten UConn.
[...]

If you count 2014 and 2015 as virtual KenPom pick 'ems, then only three real KenPom underdogs have won in the last 20 years. 2003 Syracuse, which was a big underdog (but not quite as big an underdog as Ga. Tech would have been), and Gonzaga 2021 and 2018.

As you note, those are post-championship game spreads. That is, the team that won DEFINITELY got a bump in their "odds of winning" so your conclusion about kenpom underdogs isn't totally forward-looking because it INCLUDES the result of the championship game. (I recognize you can't get the "pre championship game" numbers, although I believe kenpom has pre-NCAA tournament rankings). For this year, Gonzaga was so far ahead of Baylor in the Kenpom ratings that the single game didn't switch it, but I imagine in other years this could have occurred.

[Pghdukie]

Lively, Mitchell, and Filipowski are all visiting Duke on June 28-29. Maybe someone will commit shortly afterwards. It surely get Coach Scheyer off to a great start !

[budwom]

The setup is nice for Coach Jon...he gets to lead recruiting, but he's got K lurking to help him close some deals...I'm sure a conversation with K would be something a lot of recruits would appreciate.

[freshmanjs]

Well, House P mentioned the biggest math issue. It's also worth noting that post-tournament numbers are often misleading when evaluating what would have happened because what actually did happen is baked into those numbers. Pre-tournament, Duke was still KenPom #1 (31.7279 adj margin), while UConn was #5 (25.8489) and Georgia Tech was #6 (24.8537). Applying approximate pace to those numbers, Duke would have been approximately a 4.7 point favorite over GaT but was almost the same (approximately a 4.0 point favorite) over UConn. And we all know what actually happened in the UConn game.

Kind of surprising that Georgia Tech's Kenpom ranking and adj margin got worse during a tournament in which they made it to the final. Are you sure those pre-tournament numbers are right?

[Kedsy]

Kind of surprising that Georgia Tech's Kenpom ranking and adj margin got worse during a tournament in which they made it to the final. Are you sure those pre-tournament numbers are right?

As sure as I can be without access beyond KenPom's paywall (someone downloaded the pre-T ratings for me about four years ago). But (a) the Adj EM didn't go down very much (from 24.85 to 24.69); and (b) looking at GaTech's "run" through the tournament, I think it is probably right:

(all point spreads using KenPom pre-Tournament numbers)

Round 1: Tech was an 11.5 pt favorite over Northern Iowa; they won by 5
Round 2: Tech was a 7.0 pt favorite over BC; they won by 3
Round 3: Tech was a 4.2 pt favorite over Nevada; they won by 5
Round 4: Tech was a 4.5 pt favorite over Kansas; they won by 8 in OT
Round 5: Tech was even money with Oklahoma State; they won by 2
Round 6: Tech was a 0.7 pt underdog to UConn; they lost by 9

So they underperformed by a decent amount in 3 of the 6 games and overperformed by an OK amount in one game (though not really, since the game was OT) and by a tiny bit in the other two. Overall, I'd expect them to drop a little bit, and that's exactly what they did.

[oldbailey]

I’m referring to the fact that the refs fouled out all of our big men on ridiculous phantom fouls. Guarding Emeka Okafor was apparently against the rules.

My recollection is that Duke only had two bigs — Shelden and Shav. Once those two fouled out, we were toast. I have always thought that one of the greatest “what if’s” of the K era was what if Michael Thompson had not transferred out at the end of the Fall semester in search of more playing time elsewhere. Duke would have had 5 more big man fouls to give and may well have won that game.

[jimsumner]

My recollection is that Duke only had two bigs — Shelden and Shav. Once those two fouled out, we were toast. I have always thought that one of the greatest “what if’s” of the K era was what if Michael Thompson had not transferred out at the end of the Fall semester in search of more playing time elsewhere. Duke would have had 5 more big man fouls to give and may well have won that game.

Nick Horvath joined Shelden Williams and Shavlik Randolph on the bench with five fouls. 40 minutes, 15 fouls

[mr. synellinden]

Good post. Hopefully you don't consider it rude if I mention a potential missed step in your methodology.

It appears that you calculated the KenPom spread based on the difference in AdjEM between Duke and Georgia Tech. My understanding is that this overestimates the predicted point spread because AdjEM is based on points per 100 possessions and the average college game has less than 70 possessions. In 2004 Duke averaged 67.7 possessions per game and Georgia Tech averaged 69.1, so you could expect that a Duke-Georgia Tech game would have about 68.5 possessions.

Therefore, KenPom would probably have made Duke about a 5.2 point favorite (7.6 x 0.685 = 5.2). Duke would still have been a clear favorite, but the odds of Duke winning would have probably been be closer to 70%.

Thanks, House P. That's why I made sure in each instance to refer to it as the KP point spread because it is based on 100 possessions. My point was not to indicate what the Vegas spread would have been and therefore how likely it would be for a team to win based on that point spread. Rather I was trying to show how well the KP ratings predict winners and losers and also to show that it would have been a pretty big KP spread for a National Championship game. Only once in the last 20 years was there an upset of that magnitude (Syracuse) and a pretty high percentage (90%) of teams with a 4 point KP spread or more won the title.

I also tend to agree with Kedsy's point about familiarity, which the Final Four data seems to confirm (but I'd be curious to know what the KP data was for those games). In the NFL they often talk about how hard it is to beat a team three times in a season (I also think some of that is just math and statistics). So I think that influences the statistical likelihood. But - the point remains - we would have been a pretty big favorite based on the KP model and those teams almost always win.

[rsvman]

My recollection is that Duke only had two bigs — Shelden and Shav. Once those two fouled out, we were toast. I have always thought that one of the greatest “what if’s” of the K era was what if Michael Thompson had not transferred out at the end of the Fall semester in search of more playing time elsewhere. Duke would have had 5 more big man fouls to give and may well have won that game.

Didn't even need another big. Needed the refs to call a blatant foul on a JJ shot attempt on the lane. He gets the foul call, he makes both free throws, we go on to win even without another big.

That's how it works inside my brain, anyway.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Top target Dereck Lively II released a top 7, and it included Duke. That's not much of a shock as he is expected to visit next weekend Always nice to make the short list, though.

https://twitter.com/dereckl41/status...681218/photo/1

[sagegrouse]

I am assuming we would have won easily. Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State were God-awful in the semis. And, in the finals against UConn, didn't the Huskies go out to 30-point lead before GT made it somewhat more respectable at the end?

Which makes nothing certain, but explains my reasoning.

15 point lead at halftime -- 20 point lead during the 2nd half. This was a ROUT -- final margin of nine points is misleading.

[Utley]

Didn't even need another big. Needed the refs to call a blatant foul on a JJ shot attempt on the lane. He gets the foul call, he makes both free throws, we go on to win even without another big.

That's how it works inside my brain, anyway.

My recollection is that the UConn guard admitted he fouled him in post game interviews too. I’m still not over that game.