2019-20 DWBB Season

[CameronBornAndBred]

#1 Stanford lost to unranked Texas today.

[dudog84]

I hear you, but we've had this discussion after pretty much every loss for the past 12 and a half years. This year more people want to be involved, that's all.

I disagree, that's way overstated. There were a few people that had an obviously personal animus towards Coach P, but they were the minority. Their posts were outlandish and the coach had many more defenders. I remember, I got into it with one of them because they were posting derogatory quotes from other coaches about P that were never said.

So let's look at that beatdown. SC had a great recruiting class and starts 3 freshmen. Their ESPN high school ranks were 3, 4, and 11. They also start 2 seniors, whose ranks were 28 and 72. They're not Uconn.

We have an available starting lineup of a 5th-year player who was ranked 9. A senior who was ranked 9. A junior who was ranked 14. An international sophomore who would have been clearly ranked top-20 if she was an American (her 3-point FG% was 3rd among freshmen and 6th among all players nationwide). And a 5th-year player not highly ranked in high school (52) but who got pre-season All-America votes.

Ok, recruiting is not an exact science. But picking blindly from those two resumes I'm convinced most would take the team with much more experience when the recruiting rankings are basically a wash.

Most importantly, how does that second team lose by 43?!?!? I would love an explanation.

I never paid much attention to the disgruntled players. I'll take Lexie Brown's word over the rest of theirs combined. I never cared much about the transfers, ALL teams have transfers and not a single one of ours made a splash elsewhere. Not even Azura Stevens, who would have been a strong Player of the Year candidate at Duke and was a 6th-man at UConn (started only a few games). And she never got her National Championship.

But something is wrong.

[chrishoke]

Mods: Is it possible to break this into two threads, one about this season's WBB team and another about what to do about the coach? I don't know about anybody else, but I'm very interested in the former and not at all interested in the latter.

I am vitally interested in both. I'M okay with 2 threads if that's what folks want

[jimsumner]

I never paid much attention to the disgruntled players. I'll take Lexie Brown's word over the rest of theirs combined. I never cared much about the transfers, ALL teams have transfers and [I]not a single one of ours made a splash elsewhere.Not even Azura Stevens, who would have been a strong Player of the Year candidate at Duke and was a 6th-man at UConn (started only a few games). And she never got her National Championship.

But something is wrong.

I suppose it depends on how we define "made a splash elsewhere." But transfers like Chelsea Hopkins (San Diego State), Alexis Rogers (Bowling Green), Crystal Primm (Auburn/FAU) and Sierra Moore (Penn State) had pretty solid college careers after leaving Duke. Alexis Jones was first-team all Big-12 twice at Baylor, which seems like making a splash to me.

All programs have transfers. But more than often than not they come from players disgruntled about lack of PT. Duke has lost a lot of players who were in the rotation, even stars.

[triaddukefan]

I suppose it depends on how we define "made a splash elsewhere." But transfers like Chelsea Hopkins (San Diego State), Alexis Rogers (Bowling Green), Crystal Primm (Auburn/FAU) and Sierra Moore (Penn State) had pretty solid college careers after leaving Duke. Alexis Jones was first-team all Big-12 twice at Baylor, which seems like making a splash to me.

All programs have transfers. But more than often than not they come from players disgruntled about lack of PT. Duke has lost a lot of players who were in the rotation, even stars.

Hopkins made the 1st team All MWC team both her years and earned the Mountain West Player of the year as a Senior, honorable mention All-American, not too shabby. Actually played a handful of games in the WNBA. I do remember she had injury problems while at Duke.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Not even Azura Stevens, who would have been a strong Player of the Year candidate at Duke and was a 6th-man at UConn (started only a few games). And she never got her National Championship.

A point about Stevens; she left UCONN "early" after only one year, and was drafted 6th in the WNBA. She went on to make the All Rookie team in 2018.

[ehdg]

I wanted Coach P replaced back when we did the internal review of her n the program a year or 2 ago. When they decided to keep her I stopped my complaining n just stopped following our women’s program. It’s useless for me to invest my time n energy into them if our AD n those above are happy with Coach P n how the program is performing. If they really did care about the program they wouldn’t have let it continue the way it has for the last 5 or more years!

[CamrnCrz1974]

The FGCU game could be one that makes or breaks the season.

FGCU is likely to win its conference (Atlantic Sun) and has wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, and South Dakota State. Currently ranked 29th in RPI by RealTimeRPI.com and 32nd in RPI by the NCAA's site, FGCU would represent a quality win for Duke, especially on the road.

[budwom]

I wanted Coach P replaced back when we did the internal review of her n the program a year or 2 ago. When they decided to keep her I stopped my complaining n just stopped following our women’s program. It’s useless for me to invest my time n energy into them if our AD n those above are happy with Coach P n how the program is performing. If they really did care about the program they wouldn’t have let it continue the way it has for the last 5 or more years!

yeah, that's been my approach. Obviously Kevin White couldn't be bothered to do the right thing. Haven't watched a minute of WBB in several years now.

[OldPhiKap]

Our athletic department has done well across the board, generally, under White. So I have few complaints.

I too was concerned during the time of the review. I have enough trust in him to think that the decision he made was the best available although none of the options were terribly appealing. He talked to the parties involved, not me. He knows the budgetary constraints put on him, I do not.

White gave the coach an opportunity to work it out and improve, rather than implement a costly buy-out. It didn't improve, and we are whittling down the amount of buy-out with every game. Sad to say it, but I think that's where we are. Would love to be proved wrong in the next three months.

[Phredd3]

The FGCU game could be one that makes or breaks the season.

FGCU is likely to win its conference (Atlantic Sun) and has wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, and South Dakota State. Currently ranked 29th in RPI by RealTimeRPI.com and 32nd in RPI by the NCAA's site, FGCU would represent a quality win for Duke, especially on the road.

While I agree it would be a quality road win, I disagree that it will make or break the season. What's going to make or break the season is how we perform in the ACC. We have to manage at least a .500 record in the ACC to get a tournament bid. Granted, a win at FGCU would help and a loss would hurt, but it's games - and more specifically, road games - in our own league that will make or break us in terms of getting into the NCAA.

At the moment, I regard us as long shots to break even in the ACC, but if Mikayla comes back as an immediate contributor, and if nothing else goes wrong, well, you never know.

[AustinDevil]

While I agree it would be a quality road win, I disagree that it will make or break the season. What's going to make or break the season is how we perform in the ACC.

I’m of two minds on this. This game cannot make the season. It can definitely break (further break?) the season.

[Phredd3]

So let's look at that beatdown. SC had a great recruiting class and starts 3 freshmen. Their ESPN high school ranks were 3, 4, and 11. They also start 2 seniors, whose ranks were 28 and 72. They're not Uconn.

We have an available starting lineup of a 5th-year player who was ranked 9. A senior who was ranked 9. A junior who was ranked 14. An international sophomore who would have been clearly ranked top-20 if she was an American (her 3-point FG% was 3rd among freshmen and 6th among all players nationwide). And a 5th-year player not highly ranked in high school (52) but who got pre-season All-America votes.

Ok, recruiting is not an exact science. But picking blindly from those two resumes I'm convinced most would take the team with much more experience when the recruiting rankings are basically a wash.

I disagree that the recruiting in these two scenarios is "basically a wash". There's generally a pretty big talent gap between top-five players and everyone else, even other top-tier players. 3, 4, 11 should be notably better than 9, 9, 14 from a pure talent point of view. Further, I think you overvalue Goodchild, who is clearly a good shooter, but not the kind of multi-dimensional athletic talent that one would normally see in the recruiting top 20. Blindly, to me this looks like a close game with South Carolina likely having the edge, particularly on their home floor. So the real question is this one:

Most importantly, how does that second team lose by 43?!?!?

That's the real problem. This should be the kind of game where we hope for win, but can accept a well-played loss as a reasonable performance. Instead, we got a game that was not competitive past the 15th minute and the teddy-bear toss was welcome relief.

We should be doing better than that here at Duke.

[Phredd3]

I’m of two minds on this. This game cannot make the season. It can definitely break (further break?) the season.

If we lose on the road at FGCU, we probably have to at least go one-over-.500 in the ACC to make the tournament. But win or lose at FGCU, we will definitely have opportunities to accumulate quality wins this season right here in the ACC. The only question is: Will we?

[jimsumner]

The "Review" destroyed McCallie's ability to recruit top-10 recruits and turned Duke into a developmental program.

Based on personal observation and input from multiple program insiders McCallie did respond to the critiques by moderating her style to the benefit of the program. But she's doing it with a program of top-50 players not top-20 players and the program has clearly suffered.

In retrospect it might have been a mercy to all concerned to have ended it right then. She was put in a very bad spot, albeit one in which she bore some responsibility.

This season? Duke responded well to the Northwestern debacle. They will have to do so again if there's any chance of salvaging this season. A bad loss at FGCU and I could see the whole thing spiraling out of control. Gorecki, Lambert and Odom have to be veterans on and off the court.

[budwom]

Our athletic department has done well across the board, generally, under White. So I have few complaints.

I too was concerned during the time of the review. I have enough trust in him to think that the decision he made was the best available although none of the options were terribly appealing. He talked to the parties involved, not me. He knows the budgetary constraints put on him, I do not.

White gave the coach an opportunity to work it out and improve, rather than implement a costly buy-out. It didn't improve, and we are whittling down the amount of buy-out with every game. Sad to say it, but I think that's where we are. Would love to be proved wrong in the next three months.

yes, I think his decision was primarily financially motivated (avoiding the buyout), but I suspect the math has changed in the last few years, given the drop off in WBB ticket sales.

[uh_no]

The "Review" destroyed McCallie's ability to recruit top-10 recruits and turned Duke into a developmental program.

Based on personal observation and input from multiple program insiders McCallie did respond to the critiques by moderating her style to the benefit of the program. But she's doing it with a program of top-50 players not top-20 players and the program has clearly suffered.

In retrospect it might have been a mercy to all concerned to have ended it right then. She was put in a very bad spot, albeit one in which she bore some responsibility.

This season? Duke responded well to the Northwestern debacle. They will have to do so again if there's any chance of salvaging this season. A bad loss at FGCU and I could see the whole thing spiraling out of control. Gorecki, Lambert and Odom have to be veterans on and off the court.

didn't the chronicle interview happen after the conclusion of the inquiry? I ask because my recollection was that it was published after, but that doesn't mean the actual interview was not earlier.

Lying about being misquoted therein certainly was afterwards (not that that's a fireable offense, but certianly was not a good look were she trying to put forward a better style)

[OldPhiKap]

yes, I think his decision was primarily financially motivated (avoiding the buyout), but I suspect the math has changed in the last few years, given the drop off in WBB ticket sales.

I agree with this.

Jim of course raises excellent points too and is much closer to things than I am. I wonder if the dip in recruiting is a result of the investigation, or of the reported activity that led to it in the first place. But ultimately agree that it might have been better for all to just pull the Band-Aid off and move on.

As I said before, it's a tough situation all around with few easy outs.

[CamrnCrz1974]

The "Review" destroyed McCallie's ability to recruit top-10 recruits and turned Duke into a developmental program.

Based on personal observation and input from multiple program insiders McCallie did respond to the critiques by moderating her style to the benefit of the program. But she's doing it with a program of top-50 players not top-20 players and the program has clearly suffered.

In retrospect it might have been a mercy to all concerned to have ended it right then. She was put in a very bad spot, albeit one in which she bore some responsibility.

The complaint that led to the investigation was initiated by Elizabeth Williams, who said no mistreatment was physical or criminal in nature but described the program's atmosphere with McCallie at the helm as negative.

While McCallie was put in a bad spot, Duke had an obligation to investigate.

Other programs have survived when an internal review did not lead to dismissal of a coach - e.g., Kentucky/Matthew Mitchell. But Coach Mitchell was very public about issues to address with the program; in her Chronicle interview in the summer of 2016, McCallie came across as angry and defiant (and then, in March 2018, denied making statements that she clearly did, as The Chronicle reporter had an audio recording of the interview).

Duke still has multiple MCDAA players on the roster -- Odom, Lambert, Williams -- plus others who were state Gatorade POY players (Gorecki, Boykin). There is plenty of talent. Injuries have hurt, especially last year. But McCallie also does not seem to have the ability to "coach up" many players who are not elite -- at least not in recent years.

[jimsumner]

There's one variable we haven't discussed.

Kevin White is 69. How much longer is he going to do this? If retirement is on the horizon perhaps he wants to allow his replacement to hire his/her WBB coach, or extend the current coach. Coaches and the ADs who hired them have a symbiotic relationships. ADs want their people and coaches want an AD who has an investment in their hiring.

I do not pretend to know the answer to this question. Nor do I know if Jacki Silar's retirement complicates matters.

But it might be something to think about.