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  1. #21

    2020 NBA Draft Expectations

    It's never too early to start speculating who will be entering the draft and where they will be going.

    Vernon has really impressed me this season and he's been moving up to Top 5/10 in a lot of drafts.

    Tre's outside jumper has appeared to get a bit better and I suspect he'll be a late first round based on mocks (some have him early second now, but I suspect he'll move up if he keeps up his play).

    Hurt has fallen out of a lot of the recent mocks. Good player, but needs to bulk up and has been on the bench a lot during our close games. As things stand right now, he could come back for a second season if he doesn't have some great ACC play.

    Cassius and Wendell seem to be getting mixed opinions and probably depends on how they finish the season, but could see Cassius leaving given his age and insane athletic ability. Wendell would likely need to work on finishing and limiting turnovers as has been stated on here numerous times.

    Thoughts?

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil16 View Post
    It's never too early to start speculating who will be entering the draft and where they will be going.

    Vernon has really impressed me this season and he's been moving up to Top 5/10 in a lot of drafts.

    Tre's outside jumper has appeared to get a bit better and I suspect he'll be a late first round based on mocks (some have him early second now, but I suspect he'll move up if he keeps up his play).

    Hurt has fallen out of a lot of the recent mocks. Good player, but needs to bulk up and has been on the bench a lot during our close games. As things stand right now, he could come back for a second season if he doesn't have some great ACC play.

    Cassius and Wendell seem to be getting mixed opinions and probably depends on how they finish the season, but could see Cassius leaving given his age and insane athletic ability. Wendell would likely need to work on finishing and limiting turnovers as has been stated on here numerous times.

    Thoughts?
    My thought it is that we have a thread where we are already discussing many of these things so I will merge your thread with that one as it should provide some of the answers you are seeking.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  3. #23
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    The most recent Devil's Den podcast has a nuanced discussion of how on this year's team will leave for the NBA Draft:

    https://soundcloud.com/thedevilsdenp...otherhood-feud

    The discussion starts at the 14 minute mark.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    The most recent Devil's Den podcast has a nuanced discussion of how on this year's team will leave for the NBA Draft:
    Is it possible to get the Cliff's notes version?

    Don't do podcasts

    Thanks

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by kcduke75 View Post
    Is it possible to get the Cliff's notes version?
    Everyone but Baker, Goldwire, and maybe O'Connell will be leaving... but that could change based on how players play this coming season.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Everyone but Baker, Goldwire, and maybe O'Connell will be leaving... but that could change based on how players play this coming season.
    And the sky is blue...

  7. #27
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    SI's Jeremy Woo weighs in with the latest Big Board projections:

    https://www.si.com/nba/2019/12/11/20...ds-lamelo-ball

    Of note:
    Vernon - #24
    Wendell - #31
    Tre - #40
    Cassius - #50
    Last edited by beach rev; 12-12-2019 at 09:32 AM. Reason: neglected to list our guys

  8. #28
    Sam Vecenie of the The Athletic has his top 100 prospects up today. It's a good article, and IMO The Athletic is totally worth it, and it mentions how outside of the top 5 there is a lack of consensus.

    22. Tre Jones
    24. Matthew Hurt
    29. Vernon Carey
    65. Cassius Stanley
    72. Wendell Moore

    So only 3 Duke guys getting drafted and none anywhere near the lottery.

  9. #29
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    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Everyone but Baker, Goldwire, and maybe O'Connell will be leaving... but that could change based on how players play this coming season.
    That seems a tad bold to me, just based on the probabilities alone.

    A thought-experiment:

    Let's say that a consensus projected lottery pick declares for the draft 95% of the time (believe it or not it doesn't always happen... Miles Bridges returned to MSU for a sophomore season in such a situation, and actually might have hurt his draft stock, but that's more of a Tom Izzo problem, haha). Let's say a consensus projected non-lottery, but still first-round, pick leaves around 80% of the time. Let's say that guys on the first/second round fringe leave around 60% of the time, and guys with NBA potential but who are thought of as likely second round picks leave around 40% of the time. Highly recruited players who might not be drafted, but have an eye on starting their pro careers early might leave 25% of the time. Those are all conservative (i.e. high) numbers, but given what we've seen in the recent past it's probably more accurate to lean towards players leaving for the NBA than staying.

    Based on the most recent prognostications (the SI and Athletic are two highlighted here), it looks like Vernon is the only guy who falls into the "consensus first-round" pick category. Tre, Wendell and Matt probably fall into the first/second round fringe category (and even that might be generous, especially for Matt who is left off of some lists entirely). Cassius as of now probably is in the second round category after his injury.

    Based on those estimations, which again I purposely skewed to make it more likely that guys are going to the NBA, the odds of all five of our NBA caliber freshmen/sophomores going pro would be .80*.6^3*.4~7%.

    To my eye, it's entirely likely that we're going to lose most of our five NBA-caliber youngsters. But all 5 of them? Based on where their prognostications currently stand, that seems unlikely. Now, if they all blow up and lead us to a national title and help their draft stock, that changes the scenario by a large margin, something I think most of us would be very happy with.
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  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Natty_B View Post
    Sam Vecenie of the The Athletic has his top 100 prospects up today. It's a good article, and IMO The Athletic is totally worth it, and it mentions how outside of the top 5 there is a lack of consensus.

    22. Tre Jones
    24. Matthew Hurt
    29. Vernon Carey
    65. Cassius Stanley
    72. Wendell Moore

    So only 3 Duke guys getting drafted and none anywhere near the lottery.
    The exchange he had about Armando Bacot in the comments sections was hilarious.

    Matt R: Sam, unless I overlooked him you don’t have Armando Bacot in your top 100. What are your thoughts on him as a pro down the road? He’s been very good for UNC this year.
    Sam: He’s been fine. A 6-foot-9/6-foot-10 big-bodies true center with no perimeter game and only average length. I don’t really see him as a one and done. Think NC fans are more excited about him based on how bad the rest of the team has been.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Natty_B View Post
    Sam Vecenie of the The Athletic has his top 100 prospects up today. It's a good article, and IMO The Athletic is totally worth it, and it mentions how outside of the top 5 there is a lack of consensus.

    22. Tre Jones
    24. Matthew Hurt
    29. Vernon Carey
    65. Cassius Stanley
    72. Wendell Moore

    So only 3 Duke guys getting drafted and none anywhere near the lottery.
    Sam's rankings look pretty reasonable to me. We're going to lose a few guys - that much I get. But none of these players look like a sure thing in the NBA. I would probably venture a guess that Vernon is the closest thing to a surefire OAD - he's just been a beast and his mobility strikes me as something that should be able to translate (as well as the potential for range out to the 3pt). But even he has some questions on how his game translates.

    Tre is outstanding at the collegiate level, but his offense looks like it's lagging NBA standards. Matt seems like he may have the highest floor, but he's not ready physically at all. Cassius seems like an NBA athlete but it's hard to envision what skill will be his calling card in the NBA. And Wendell has struggled adapting to the college game.

    I love all our guys, and I think they all have reasonable shots at succeeding in the NBA. But standing at today, it's hard to envision any of them having an "easy" decision. Even though I recognize that probabilities will make at least 2 (and potentially but unlikely all 5) bolt for the NBA.

    - Chillin

  12. #32
    I would be stunned if Carey is still around at 29. I understand the concerns about how his measurables and skills translate to the NBA, but he is more agile and athletic than people realize. And he can shoot the ball.

  13. #33
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    The SI board has Cole Anthony at 6. Most others have him at 4 - he started the year as an almost consensus 3, but Ball has jumped him according to most. 6 would be disappointing. Could he be on the Nassir Little track?

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Sam's rankings look pretty reasonable to me. We're going to lose a few guys - that much I get. But none of these players look like a sure thing in the NBA. I would probably venture a guess that Vernon is the closest thing to a surefire OAD - he's just been a beast and his mobility strikes me as something that should be able to translate (as well as the potential for range out to the 3pt). But even he has some questions on how his game translates.

    Tre is outstanding at the collegiate level, but his offense looks like it's lagging NBA standards. Matt seems like he may have the highest floor, but he's not ready physically at all. Cassius seems like an NBA athlete but it's hard to envision what skill will be his calling card in the NBA. And Wendell has struggled adapting to the college game.

    I love all our guys, and I think they all have reasonable shots at succeeding in the NBA. But standing at today, it's hard to envision any of them having an "easy" decision. Even though I recognize that probabilities will make at least 2 (and potentially but unlikely all 5) bolt for the NBA.

    - Chillin
    What has intrigued me about the NBA draft in the OAD era is how many of the players that are drafted are really ready for the NBA. The NBA WILL draft the top 60 most talented players from around the world. If you are one of the top 60 it does not matter if there are deficiencies in your game.

    So, should we do the type of analysis that Chillin has done which is great or do we just ask "Are the Duke players in the top 60?" Maybe a little more precisely are they in the top 30, because 1st round draft picks get guaranteed money. Deficiencies in their games may not matter that much.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    The SI board has Cole Anthony at 6. Most others have him at 4 - he started the year as an almost consensus 3, but Ball has jumped him according to most. 6 would be disappointing. Could he be on the Nassir Little track?
    You know it’s funny. So many basketball fans and writers/commentators were predicting that Cole Anthony was going to come to UNC and be spectacular right from the get-go. Maybe he still will be at some point during his one and only season in college, but I doubt it.

    When are people going to realize that freshmen, no matter how talented, very rarely have a truly significant impact? Zion Williamson was an anomaly the likes of which we might not see again for many years, if ever.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    You know it’s funny. So many basketball fans and writers/commentators were predicting that Cole Anthony was going to come to UNC and be spectacular right from the get-go. Maybe he still will be at some point during his one and only season in college, but I doubt it.

    When are people going to realize that freshmen, no matter how talented, very rarely have a truly significant impact? Zion Williamson was an anomaly the likes of which we might not see again for many years, if ever.
    I think Anthony is going to be fine and maybe even spectacular later this year at UNC. We have seen him play 9 games. He shoots the ball well. That alone will get you a look in the NBA. And we've seen with Kyrie and others that you don't have to be the pure playmaker at the PG position when you have the right guys around you. As weird as it would be to see as a Duke fan, Anthony would fit extremely well with RJ Barrett if they could add a floor spacer at the 3 for the Knicks. It's everyone else at UNC that has not stepped up yet. They thought that they could plug in Keeling, Pierce, Robinson, and Black into the lineup. So far, that isn't working out.

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    You know it’s funny. So many basketball fans and writers/commentators were predicting that Cole Anthony was going to come to UNC and be spectacular right from the get-go. Maybe he still will be at some point during his one and only season in college, but I doubt it.

    When are people going to realize that freshmen, no matter how talented, very rarely have a truly significant impact? Zion Williamson was an anomaly the likes of which we might not see again for many years, if ever.
    [Checks list of NCAA All-American teams in the 10s]
    2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett
    2018: Ayton, Bagley, Young
    2017: Ball, Monk, Jackson (Josh), Markkanen
    2016: Simmons, Murray
    2015: Okafor, Russell, Towns
    2014: Parker, Wiggins, Randle
    2013: quiet
    2012: Davis (PoY), Kidd-Gilchrist
    2011*: Sullinger
    2010: Wall, Cousins

    [Checks list of All-ACC teams in the 10s]
    2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett, White
    2018: Bagley (PoY), Carter
    2017: Smith
    2016: Ingram
    2015: Okafor (PoY), Jones
    2014: Parker, Ennis
    2013: quiet
    2012: Rivers
    2011*: Barnes, Marshall
    2010:

    * - We probably add a certain Duke player to the list if not for a certain lower-extremity injury

    Doesn't seem all that rare for a freshman to have a significant impact. And becoming less and less so more recently. We're at the point where we should expect at least one freshman to be a 1st team All-American, and quite frequently a freshman is in the hunt for ACC PoY.

    Now, it's certainly rare for a freshman to have the impact Zion had. But in fairness it is rare (perhaps unprecedented) for ANY player, regardless of class, to have the impact Zion had.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I think Anthony is going to be fine and maybe even spectacular later this year at UNC. We have seen him play 9 games. He shoots the ball well. That alone will get you a look in the NBA. And we've seen with Kyrie and others that you don't have to be the pure playmaker at the PG position when you have the right guys around you. As weird as it would be to see as a Duke fan, Anthony would fit extremely well with RJ Barrett if they could add a floor spacer at the 3 for the Knicks. It's everyone else at UNC that has not stepped up yet. They thought that they could plug in Keeling, Pierce, Robinson, and Black into the lineup. So far, that isn't working out.
    Yeah, the rest of that team is REALLY bad. Bacot and Brooks are tolerable but nothing special. But after that? Awful. Puts a lot of pressure on the PG when there is nobody else capable of creating their own shot.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    [Checks list of NCAA All-American teams in the 10s]
    2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett
    2018: Ayton, Bagley, Young
    2017: Ball, Monk, Jackson (Josh), Markkanen
    2016: Simmons, Murray
    2015: Okafor, Russell, Towns
    2014: Parker, Wiggins, Randle
    2013: quiet
    2012: Davis (PoY), Kidd-Gilchrist
    2011*: Sullinger
    2010: Wall, Cousins

    [Checks list of All-ACC teams in the 10s]
    2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett, White
    2018: Bagley (PoY), Carter
    2017: Smith
    2016: Ingram
    2015: Okafor (PoY), Jones
    2014: Parker, Ennis
    2013: quiet
    2012: Rivers
    2011*: Barnes, Marshall
    2010:

    * - We probably add a certain Duke player to the list if not for a certain lower-extremity injury

    Doesn't seem all that rare for a freshman to have a significant impact. And becoming less and less so more recently. We're at the point where we should expect at least one freshman to be a 1st team All-American, and quite frequently a freshman is in the hunt for ACC PoY.

    Now, it's certainly rare for a freshman to have the impact Zion had. But in fairness it is rare (perhaps unprecedented) for ANY player, regardless of class, to have the impact Zion had.
    I don’t think I made clear what I meant by “truly significant” — which I was thinking of as being TRANSCENDENT. People were hyping Cole Anthony as being a Zion Williamson-like impact player. Not a single one of the players you listed — other than Anthony Davis — was anywhere near Zion’s level. That was the point I was making.

    Cole Anthony was talked about as being a transcendent player on the level of Zion (and Davis). He is not. And neither were any of the others on your list.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    I don’t think I made clear what I meant by “truly significant” — which I was thinking of as being TRANSCENDENT. People were hyping Cole Anthony as being a Zion Williamson-like impact player. Not a single one of the players you listed — other than Anthony Davis — was anywhere near Zion’s level. That was the point I was making.
    And neither are any of the other college players of any class in probably 30 years or more. That's not an indictment of freshmen - that's just how amazing Zion was. I don't think anyone expected anyone in this weaker class to come anywhere near Zion's impact.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Cole Anthony was talked about as being a transcendent player on the level of Zion (and Davis). He is not. And neither were any of the others on your list.
    I think you're overstating the hype Anthony came in with. I don't think anyone was saying he'd be like Zion. I mean, he wasn't even the #1 recruit coming out of high school, so clearly folks didn't think THAT highly of him.

    I think Anthony stands a pretty good chance of being 1st Team All-ACC and an All-American. If his teammates didn't suck, he would be a comfortable favorite to make those lists. I think that is probably in line with the preseason expectations for him.

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