Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[superdave]

NBA is saying that pre draft travel, accessibility is going to be severely limited. If that's the case, guys like Hurt who could have a big shooting day and get a promise from a team may not even have the chance to play their way into getting picked.

Hurt averaged 10/4 and just shy of 40% from 3. If he goes 13/6 and 43% next year, he's a first rounder and gets drafted late enough to be on a playoff team. Anything better than that and he's All Acc and maybe a fringe All American, all while playing 35 nationally televised games.

How is that not better than a season at $77k in the G-league? Unless, as someone said, he did not enjoy his season at Duke, which I've not heard anywhere.

[sagegrouse]

NBA is saying that pre draft travel, accessibility is going to be severely limited. If that's the case, guys like Hurt who could have a big shooting day and get a promise from a team may not even have the chance to play their way into getting picked.

.

Wondering why NBA teams wouldn't use private jets to go where the players are? "Social distancing" may enter the equation. Another thought: if the 2020 NBA season resumes -- say, in June -- isn't it likely the draft would be postponed?

[superdave]

Wondering why NBA teams wouldn't use private jets to go where the players are? "Social distancing" may enter the equation. Another thought: if the 2020 NBA season resumes -- say, in June -- isn't it likely the draft would be postponed?

My guess is delayed draft and compressed evaluation period.

Which do scouts prefer, private workouts or combines?

[UrinalCake]

I think Stanley is the one who would be hurt the most by not having a combine opportunity. He would have gotten a big boost, must like Frank Jackson and Miles Plumlee did. Hurt would have likely put up mediocre testing and measurement numbers. He could have had a good shooting performance in some of the drills and five on fives, but I'm not sure that would tell scouts anything they don't already know.

It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.

[scottdude8]

I think Stanley is the one who would be hurt the most by not having a combine opportunity. He would have gotten a big boost, must like Frank Jackson and Miles Plumlee did. Hurt would have likely put up mediocre testing and measurement numbers. He could have had a good shooting performance in some of the drills and five on fives, but I'm not sure that would tell scouts anything they don't already know.

It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.

Agreed. There's also the possibility that there may not even be a "testing the waters" option this year which would throw another huge wrench into things. I have to imagine that Stanley would "test the waters" rather than hire an agent right away given the huge variability in his projections, which would allow him to go in and impress at the combine. If the NCAA does something stupid (and let's be honest, that's the expectation rather than the exception at this point) and doesn't adjust their rules with the NBA draft, guys for whom that evaluation would've been very useful may not be able to get it. That will lead to some people who we would've expected to go pro returning, and others making potentially rash decisions and going pro when it seems like not the best decision.

This will be fascinating to watch and speculate about endlessly over these next months. I really hope the NBA and NCAA make these decisions in concert, but that seems like a pipe dream.

[Nugget]

Agreed. There's also the possibility that there may not even be a "testing the waters" option this year which would throw another huge wrench into things. I have to imagine that Stanley would "test the waters" rather than hire an agent right away given the huge variability in his projections, which would allow him to go in and impress at the combine. If the NCAA does something stupid (and let's be honest, that's the expectation rather than the exception at this point) and doesn't adjust their rules with the NBA draft, guys for whom that evaluation would've been very useful may not be able to get it. That will lead to some people who we would've expected to go pro returning, and others making potentially rash decisions and going pro when it seems like not the best decision.

This will be fascinating to watch and speculate about endlessly over these next months. I really hope the NBA and NCAA make these decisions in concert, but that seems like a pipe dream.

Given that Cassius' father is a big-time agent he would presumably be better situated to get accurate information in a truncated draft process than almost anyone else. To the extent it matters - he may just be ready to move on to a pro career regardless of his draft position.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agreed. There's also the possibility that there may not even be a "testing the waters" option this year which would throw another huge wrench into things. I have to imagine that Stanley would "test the waters" rather than hire an agent right away given the huge variability in his projections, which would allow him to go in and impress at the combine. If the NCAA does something stupid (and let's be honest, that's the expectation rather than the exception at this point) and doesn't adjust their rules with the NBA draft, guys for whom that evaluation would've been very useful may not be able to get it. That will lead to some people who we would've expected to go pro returning, and others making potentially rash decisions and going pro when it seems like not the best decision.

This will be fascinating to watch and speculate about endlessly over these next months. I really hope the NBA and NCAA make these decisions in concert, but that seems like a pipe dream.

Why should the NBA care at all about the NCAA at this point? The NBA will do what is best for them. The NCAA will try to do what is best for them but will always lose to the NBA.

I hope (and suspect) the NBA makes the best decision for their draftees, which should translate to the plenty of private workouts for the top 50-70 players.

It's times like these where having a coach with such a deep connection to the NBA and their scouts will really help a lot.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic has updated his big board for the 2020 NBA Draft. I think Vecenie is one of the better writers about this. He interviews a lot of NBA scouts and front office folks. Here's what he has as of the beginning of April:

20. Tre Jones
32. Cassius Stanley
34. Vernon Carey, Jr.
67. Matthew Hurt

This makes me think Stanley is as good as gone if he is that close to a late first round. I am sort of not surprised to see Vernon Carey there but also wonder if a team that could use a productive big like the Lakers would take him in the 1st.

[roywhite]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic has updated his big board for the 2020 NBA Draft. I think Vecenie is one of the better writers about this. He interviews a lot of NBA scouts and front office folks. Here's what he has as of the beginning of April:

20. Tre Jones
32. Cassius Stanley
34. Vernon Carey, Jr.
67. Matthew Hurt

This makes me think Stanley is as good as gone if he is that close to a late first round. I am sort of not surprised to see Vernon Carey there but also wonder if a team that could use a productive big like the Lakers would take him in the 1st.

Shades of Carlos Boozer for Vernon?

Carlos went #35 in the 2002 draft. As a rookie, he averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds; by his second season, Carlos averaged 15.5 points and 11.4 rebounds, on his way to a very productive pro career.

[Jaks19]

Stanley has many of the qualities that NBA programs look for. As we all have seen he is extremely athletic. He had a decent 3pt shooting percentage, he was focused as a defender and he has good physical intangibles. Those things alone will entice some team to take him in either the late 1st round or in the second round.

[Natty_B]

Shades of Carlos Boozer for Vernon?

Carlos went #35 in the 2002 draft. As a rookie, he averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds; by his second season, Carlos averaged 15.5 points and 11.4 rebounds, on his way to a very productive pro career.

Probably the other way around Boozer, with his total lack of D and limited outside game, wouldn't be a good fit for the present day NBA.

[UrinalCake]

Probably the other way around Boozer, with his total lack of D and limited outside game, wouldn't be a good fit for the present day NBA.

I think the similarity was just in draft position, not playing style. Boozer was a second round steal and Carey could be as well. Boozer broke his foot that season and was limited in his return during that 2001 run, so that could have affected his draft position. I think many thought that he was undersized to play the 5 but he acquitted himself well at the next level. Agree that he would be less productive in today's game.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I think the similarity was just in draft position, not playing style. Boozer was a second round steal and Carey could be as well. Boozer broke his foot that season and was limited in his return during that 2001 run, so that could have affected his draft position. I think many thought that he was undersized to play the 5 but he acquitted himself well at the next level. Agree that he would be less productive in today's game.

Boozer performed better in 2001-02 (increased ppg and rpg), his junior year. Why did his broken foot in 2001 affect his 2002 draft position?

[UrinalCake]

Sorry, brain fart. I was thinking he left in 2001.

[devildeac]

Sorry, brain fart. I was thinking he left in 2001.

Here's to never forgetting 3/21/02:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...3-21-duke.html

Boozer. Was. Fouled.

Yep, still too soon.

[Natty_B]

Here's to never forgetting 3/21/02:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...3-21-duke.html

Boozer. Was. Fouled.

Yep, still too soon.

A top tier brutal Duke loss for me. 2002 team had 5 guys who would go on to have very solid NBA careers (or would have in the case of Williams). Waiting in the Elite 8 was Cinderella Kent St (and Antonio Gates) - not saying Duke would have rolled them but IU did so a FF seemed pretty likely. The Terps would have been difficult though.

[Steven43]

A top tier brutal Duke loss for me. 2002 team had 5 guys who would go on to have very solid NBA careers (or would have in the case of Williams). Waiting in the Elite 8 was Cinderella Kent St (and Antonio Gates) - not saying Duke would have rolled them but IU did so a FF seemed pretty likely. The Terps would have been difficult though.

Wasn’t the 2001-2002 season the one in which during the Maryland game at Cameron Indoor Jason Williams put the team on his back and relentlessly drove to the basket again and again while leading Duke to a destruction of the #3-ranked Terrapins? I’m pretty sure it was.

Regardless, it was astonishing to see a relatively short guard fearlessly attack the basket over and over with much bigger players — often two or even three — waiting for him knowing full well he was coming. My gosh, I wish I had a recording of that game.

[CDu]

Wasn’t the 2001-2002 season the one in which during the Maryland game at Cameron Indoor Jason Williams put the team on his back and relentlessly drove to the basket again and again while leading Duke to a destruction of the #3-ranked Terrapins? I’m pretty sure it was.

It's also the season in which Maryland beat us by 14 in College Park just a month later.

[Natty_B]

It's also the season in which Maryland beat us by 14 in College Park just a month later.

Yep and Duke looked BAD in that game with the most "memorable" play being Williams not paying attention and getting his pocket picked right before half for a buzzer beating layup - don't recall by who - maybe Dixon? Give it enough time and I try to turn every thread back to that era.

[Steven43]

Geez, I was excited about discussing one of the signature performances by an all-time great Duke player and you guys killed it.