Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[pfrduke]

Yep and Duke looked BAD in that game with the most "memorable" play being Williams not paying attention and getting his pocket picked right before half for a buzzer beating layup - don't recall by who - maybe Dixon? Give it enough time and I try to turn every thread back to that era.

Funny, I had thought that play (and I remembered Blake being the pick-pocketer) happened in the Miracle Minute game.

[roywhite]

Wasn’t the 2001-2002 season the one in which during the Maryland game at Cameron Indoor Jason Williams put the team on his back and relentlessly drove to the basket again and again while leading Duke to a destruction of the #3-ranked Terrapins? I’m pretty sure it was.

Regardless, it was astonishing to see a relatively short guard fearlessly attack the basket over and over with much bigger players — often two or even three — waiting for him knowing full well he was coming. My gosh, I wish I had a recording of that game.

Ha...reminiscent in many ways of Maryland at Duke in 1973, with Gary Melchionni doing the relentless attacking while leading Duke to a big upset over highly ranked Maryland. Gary ended up with 39 points with many of the baskets coming on short jumpers in the lane. Certainly the highlight of the season for Bucky's last team.

[Steven43]

Ha...reminiscent in many ways of Maryland at Duke in 1973, with Gary Melchionni doing the relentless attacking while leading Duke to a big upset over highly ranked Maryland. Gary ended up with 39 points with many of the baskets coming on short jumpers in the lane. Certainly the highlight of the season for Bucky's last team.

Wow, I didn’t know Melchionni was that kind of scorer. Were you in attendance for that game?

[Teton Jack]

I was there and he was fantastic! Probably got him drafted to the NBA. Maryland kept shifting new guards to shut him down and he methodically took them apart. The court was spread and he would use positioning to get deeper into the lane. Then he would take his short jumper and score. This wasn't a dribble-drive environment; he didn't use quickness as much as he used intelligence. Ol' Lefty just about had a heart attack that game. He had so many weapons at his disposal.

[jv001]

Ha...reminiscent in many ways of Maryland at Duke in 1973, with Gary Melchionni doing the relentless attacking while leading Duke to a big upset over highly ranked Maryland. Gary ended up with 39 points with many of the baskets coming on short jumpers in the lane. Certainly the highlight of the season for Bucky's last team.

Ah! The Mongoose Offense. Well, I think that's what it was called. Gary was magnificent that game.

He was one smooth lefty.

GoDuke!

[House P]

Yep and Duke looked BAD in that game with the most "memorable" play being Williams not paying attention and getting his pocket picked right before half for a buzzer beating layup - don't recall by who - maybe Dixon?

Pretty sure it was Steve Blake who stole the ball from Williams, but I am not​ going to look it up to confirm. Ugh.

For what it is worth, KenPom says that Duke would probably have been a 3.5 to 4 point favorite in a Final 4 rematch.

[DavidBenAkiva]

This came out a couple of days ago. The fine people of HoopsHype do the dirty work of aggregating mock drafts from a variety of sources, including the Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, ESPN, NBADraft.net, Rookie Wire (USA Today), SB Nation, SI.com, and Sporting News. The aggregate mock draft, version 5.0, was released on April 4.

1. Anthony Edwards, Georgia
2. LaMello Ball, International/BBB
3. James Wiseman, Memphis(ish)
4. Deni Avdija, International/Israel
5. Obi Toppin, Dayton
6. Onyeka Okongwu, USC
7. Isaac Okoro, Auburn
8. Killian Hayes, International/France
9. Tyrese Halliburton, Iowa State
10. Cole Anthony, UNC
11. Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky
12. RJ Hampton, International/American
13. Theo Maledon, International/France
14. Devin Vassell, FSU

24. Vernon Carey, Duke
27. Tre Jones, Duke
34. Cassius Stanely, Duke

A couple of notes about the Duke guys.

Vernon Carey, Jr. is in the 1st round in every mock and as high as 13th (NBADraft.net) and as low as 30th (Bleacher Report and SB Nation). Most of the ones I trust have him in the 26-29 range. That seems about right to me. He will most likely get drafted by a good team that could use a productive big right away like Houston or the Lakers.

Tre Jones mostly appears in the first round, with a low of 54 (NBADraft.net) and a high of 20 (SB Nation). I think a more recent mock from Sam Vecennie at The Athletic also had Jones at 20. He looks like he's in a good spot to go in the latter part of the first round.

Cassius Stanley did not appear in 2 mock drafts. Those mocks do not include 2nd rounders. Of the others, it's a mix of first and second round. I have heard on twitter or elsewhere that Stanely got a grade of early 2nd round during an initial evaluation. I do believe he's going to get a good contract from a team because of his athletic ability and how he shot the ball this year (36% from 3, 73.3% from the FT line). What NBA team couldn't use an athletic wing that can fly, has the foot speed to guard multiple positions, and can make a jumper? If he develops a tighter handle, he could be quite valuable in the NBA.

Matthew Hurt doesn't show up on most mocks and Wendell Moore is absent as well. I think the word is that they will both be sophomores but haven't seen firm confirmation yet on Hurt in particular. Signs are good he's coming back, which is great news to me. We'll see, though. Things change.

[brlftz]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

[sagegrouse]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

Me too. I would say, however, that we should celebrate the success of Lonzo Ball -- we don't seem to hear anything any more from poppa LaVar.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

By all indications, he appears to be a very advanced passer. The shot still needs work. Perhaps he is getting a boost on account of his brother, who finally starting hitting jumpers this past season.

[JasonEvans]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

Ummm, not even close to laughable. Playing in the NBL, a league full of grown men that is a decent international league, Mello averaged 17ppg with close to 7 assists per game and more than 7 and a half rebounds. His shooting is poor -- par for the course for a Ball -- only hitting 25% of his threes, but the fact that he hit better than 72% of his FTs shows that he may be able to round into at least a little bit of a perimeter shooter (his brother hit just 67% of his FTs at UCLA).

What's more, LaMello is a legit 6-7, perhaps even 6-8, PG with very good passing instincts and a strong handle. Because he was playing against the kind of experienced, older players he will face in the NBA, I think there's a good argument that Ball is the safest pick of anyone in the lottery this year.

-Jason "if I had the #1 pick, I would be very tempted to take him... he only just turned 18 and will be among the youngest players in this draft" Evans

[jv001]

Ummm, not even close to laughable. Playing in the NBL, a league full of grown men that is a decent international league, Mello averaged 17ppg with close to 7 assists per game and more than 7 and a half rebounds. His shooting is poor -- par for the course for a Ball -- only hitting 25% of his threes, but the fact that he hit better than 72% of his FTs shows that he may be able to round into at least a little bit of a perimeter shooter (his brother hit just 67% of his FTs at UCLA).

What's more, LaMello is a legit 6-7, perhaps even 6-8, PG with very good passing instincts and a strong handle. Because he was playing against the kind of experienced, older players he will face in the NBA, I think there's a good argument that Ball is the safest pick of anyone in the lottery this year.

-Jason "if I had the #1 pick, I would be very tempted to take him... he only just turned 18 and will be among the youngest players in this draft" Evans

Thanks for the info on young Mr. Ball but remember Jason, if you took him #1 or any spot in the draft, you'd have to put up with DAD.

GoDuke!

[JayZee]

Me too. I would say, however, that we should celebrate the success of Lonzo Ball -- we don't seem to hear anything any more from poppa LaVar.

popping off...

https://www.talkbasket.net/78348-lav...allhe-too-slow

[MartyClark]

popping off...

https://www.talkbasket.net/78348-lav...allhe-too-slow

He is a narcissistic moron. Even if he doesn't believe his own self promotion, and he may, this type of talk does him no good.

[arnie]

He is a narcissistic moron. Even if he doesn't believe his own self promotion, and he may, this type of talk does him no good.

Narcissistic yes; moron no. He loves attention and we’re talking about him😡.
I guess his kids still love him♥️

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, who I think does a great job with these mock drafts, has an update to his Big Board. Here's what he has for the Duke players in the draft:

23. Miami Heat: Tre Jones
33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cassius Stanley
35. Sacramento Kings: Vernon Carey, Jr.

Vecenie writes interesting notes about each player. For Jones, he got on a shooting hot streak over his last 7 games of the season, which lifted his season 3P% from 32.1% to 36.1%. In those final game, he shot 46.7% from 3 and 86.8% from the FT line. That is both encouraging and a little concerning to teams having to evaluate Jones. Was it sign of an improving shooter or a mirage? Vecenie writes that Jones does basically everything else at a high level and could see Jones taking over as a backup PG at worst in the NBA, like a version of his older brother Tyus. There are worse outcomes for a 23rd pick in the draft.

Cassius Stanley is a big riser over the season for Vecenie and others. He proved that his shooting, which could improve, is not the concern that some had before the year began. Oh, and he can absolutely fly. Vecenie referred to Stanley as a glue guy. Stanley also ended the year on a shooting hot-streak, hitting 43.5% of his 3-point attempts and 77.8% from the FT line. He has a future in the NBA if he can further refine his shooting form and play better off-the-ball defense.

Carey suffers from being a person with a skillset that is not in demand in the NBA these days. He did show promise as a shooter and notes that players that excel at scoring in the post and off of offensive rebounds can carve out a role - Enes Kanter was a comp. The biggest question for Carey is his ability to defend guards on switches. More teams are running drop-coverage defense, so you can play a guy like Carey in the right system. The ability to move his feet will be key.

[jv001]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, who I think does a great job with these mock drafts, has an update to his Big Board. Here's what he has for the Duke players in the draft:

23. Miami Heat: Tre Jones
33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cassius Stanley
35. Sacramento Kings: Vernon Carey, Jr.

Vecenie writes interesting notes about each player. For Jones, he got on a shooting hot streak over his last 7 games of the season, which lifted his season 3P% from 32.1% to 36.1%. In those final game, he shot 46.7% from 3 and 86.8% from the FT line. That is both encouraging and a little concerning to teams having to evaluate Jones. Was it sign of an improving shooter or a mirage? Vecenie writes that Jones does basically everything else at a high level and could see Jones taking over as a backup PG at worst in the NBA, like a version of his older brother Tyus. There are worse outcomes for a 23rd pick in the draft.

Cassius Stanley is a big riser over the season for Vecenie and others. He proved that his shooting, which could improve, is not the concern that some had before the year began. Oh, and he can absolutely fly. Vecenie referred to Stanley as a glue guy. Stanley also ended the year on a shooting hot-streak, hitting 43.5% of his 3-point attempts and 77.8% from the FT line. He has a future in the NBA if he can further refine his shooting form and play better off-the-ball defense.

Carey suffers from being a person with a skillset that is not in demand in the NBA these days. He did show promise as a shooter and notes that players that excel at scoring in the post and off of offensive rebounds can carve out a role - Enes Kanter was a comp. The biggest question for Carey is his ability to defend guards on switches. More teams are running drop-coverage defense, so you can play a guy like Carey in the right system. The ability to move his feet will be key.

Wow, Vernon all the way down to #35. Do you think that's anywhere close to where he'll be drafted?

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wow, Vernon all the way down to #35. Do you think that's anywhere close to where he'll be drafted?

GoDuke!

Certainly possible. To me, Carey is like an Okafor who tries on defense (but doesn't really succeed) and has a better (but still not very good) long-range shot.

if Okafor were drafted today, he'd likely be a fringe second-round draft pick. These "back to the basket" big men who aren't good defenders aren't very useful in the league.

I do think Carey in the second round is an absolute steal. I also think Stanley will end up a first round pick and the highest pick of the bunch. His athleticism, defense, and 3pt potential are all high qualities. He doesn't need to be a star but rather an excellent role player. Think of Danny Green light.

Tre is where I have no idea. To me, he's a second round pick. His qualities in college (leadership, defense, ability to take over the game) aren't going to be qualities in the NBA as he isn't big enough, strong enough, or fast enough. Also, I just don't trust that shot.

If I had to guess, I'd say Stanley goes in the early 20s, Carey in the late 20s, and Tre in the 30s. But I'm unfortunately not a GM.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Certainly possible. To me, Carey is like an Okafor who tries on defense (but doesn't really succeed) and has a better (but still not very good) long-range shot.

if Okafor were drafted today, he'd likely be a fringe second-round draft pick. These "back to the basket" big men who aren't good defenders aren't very useful in the league.

I do think Carey in the second round is an absolute steal. I also think Stanley will end up a first round pick and the highest pick of the bunch. His athleticism, defense, and 3pt potential are all high qualities. He doesn't need to be a star but rather an excellent role player. Think of Danny Green light.

Tre is where I have no idea. To me, he's a second round pick. His qualities in college (leadership, defense, ability to take over the game) aren't going to be qualities in the NBA as he isn't big enough, strong enough, or fast enough. Also, I just don't trust that shot.

If I had to guess, I'd say Stanley goes in the early 20s, Carey in the late 20s, and Tre in the 30s. But I'm unfortunately not a GM.

A couple of things:

Carey is absolutely better at shooting than Okafor was and will be in the NBA. Jah was an elite interior scorer but had no shot in college. He never attempted a 3 at Duke and shot 51% from the FT line. Jah did hit a pretty decent 44% of his jumpers out to 10 feet from the rim, but that's not a shot you take in the NBA these days. Vernon took 21 3's at essentially NBA range and made 38.1% to go along with a pretty decent 67.0% FT rate. Carey was struggling from the line up to the game against SFA, hitting just 54.0% of his FT attempts. From there on, he hit 70.8% of his FT attempts and 75.0% over the final 14 games. The kid can shoot a jumper much better than Jah. And Carey appears to know where to be on defense, which is something Okafor lacks. Jah is also much longer than Carey. Okafor has a 7'5" reach, which is among the longest in the NBA. Carey is a more pedestrian 7'0". Wingspan isn't everything, but it helps. The question is if Carey's limited wingspan and footspeed make him a defensive liability.

As for Tre, he may not be elite at scoring, but he is and should be an elite defender. His brother Tyus is one of the best defenders as a PG in the NBA and there's no reason to believe that Tre won't be among the better on-ball defenders as a PG from day 1. If Tre can shoot the ball well, dish it out, and make an occasional jumper, he's going to have a long NBA career even if he never starts.

[brlftz]

... His brother Tyus is one of the best defenders as a PG in the NBA...

Wait, what? Not saying you're wrong, but that would really really surprise me. He wasn't exactly known for defense previously.