Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[WillJ]

The Ringer has a roundup today on how the current rookie glass is doing -- and, outside of Morant, Clarke and Tyler Herro, it's pretty grim for the first rounders.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1...omps-ja-morant

Some particularly brutal numbers on RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish:

"Of the 120 rookies this century who have attempted enough shots to qualify for the shooting leaderboard, Barrett ranks 117th in TS%. Only Elfrid Payton, Adam Morrison, and Emmanuel Mudiay are worse."

***

"[Reddish] ranks in the second percentile of rookies this century in TS%; he’s shooting 38 percent on 2-pointers and 26 percent on 3s."

I'm a bit worried about both RJ and Cam. They are not good enough on defense to be offensive liabilities.

[devildeac]

Here’s a mock that has Stanley going 27. It’s Bleacher Report so not exactly the most reputable source, and the rest of the mock differs from the general consensus, but I do believe their blurb that NBA scouts are beginning to take notice of Stanley’s potential.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...adline-edition

Interesting to see Tre and Vern at #17 and #18, respectively. And Anthony down to #8. Hopefully, we can drop him a few more notches after today's game and the regular season finale.

[MChambers]

Interesting to see Tre and Vern at #17 and #18, respectively. And Anthony down to #8. Hopefully, we can drop him a few more notches after today's game and the regular season finale.

If we drop him too much, he'll be another of Ol' Roy five star four year players.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie at The Athletic released his latest Mock Draft. I think Vecenie does a good job with his mocks and provides tons of insight about players. He's a little higher on some guys (Tyrese Maxey is #5 - which is wild as he's a scoring guard shooting worse than Tre Jones) and lower on others than me but he's honest about it at the very least. And he clearly talks to NBA guys to do his work.

In his latest mock, he has a quartet of Duke guys in the 1st and 2nd round:

25.. New York Knicks (via LAC): Vernon Carey, Jr.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via DEN): Tre Jones
40. Cassius Stanley (via PHX): Cassius Stanley
42. New Orleans Pelicans: Matthew Hurt

Vecenie has the usual things to write about the Duke players. There are concerns about Carey's abilities to defend but that he has been so productive in 25 minutes a game that it could translate to the NBA. Is Tre Jones capable of being a lead guard or is he destined for a backup role? Is the shooting real with Cassius Stanely? Is Hurt strong enough, with good enough handles, to play in the NBA? Regarding Hurt, Vecenie has a spot on quote:

"I think someone sells themselves on the shooting, but it’s been a weird freshman year in Durham."

[CDu]

"I think someone sells themselves on the shooting, but it’s been a weird freshman year in Durham."

Honestly, I'm not all that shocked by Hurt's freshman year. He looked overmatched in the high school all-star games too. And there were questions of his athleticism and strength that were obvious. So it isn't shocking that he's had trouble staying on the floor this year. That should be the norm for big guys with strength and athleticism questions. See Jon Henson for (an entirely different style but similar problem) example. It can take time for them to find their way.

Now, I wouldn't have been surprised if Hurt had been a star either. Such is the life of guys who are great shooters with poor run/jump athleticism: if they can figure out how to compensate for the athletic limitations, they can make an impact. With Hurt, the issue is that he just hasn't found a way to compete physically with consistency. I think the questions will only get tougher at the next level, where he would be undersized for the PF position, and the size/length, strength, and athleticism of the competition will be much much greater.

I just hope he plays well enough the next month or two that he pushes himself to the back of the first round. That would likely mean good things for our season.

Vecenie's other estimates seem about right: if Carey can show he can score against size and can defend away from the basket, his stock will rise. If not, the NBA is tough on bigs that struggle away from the rim.

With Jones vis-a-vis Maxey, the issue is that Maxey is taller, longer, and much more explosive athletically. And he's considered a better shooter than Jones despite having a lower % on 3s. Mainly because he has historically profiled as a good shooter, and is better from the FT line. With Maxey, you know you can get a lead-guard scorer and multi-position defender. With Jones, he's a one-position guy, and he may be limited at that one position (limited run/jump athleticism raises questions about his defensive prowess at the next level, questionable shooter at a position where you really need shooting). Maxey probably has higher bust potential, but also a much higher ceiling.

[brevity]

25.. New York Knicks (via LAC): Vernon Carey, Jr.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via DEN): Tre Jones
40. Cassius Stanley (via PHX): Cassius Stanley
42. New Orleans Pelicans: Matthew Hurt

Wow, even Zion didn't have the power to draft himself! Good for Cassius Stanley to make that trade with Phoenix.

What team did you mean? I'm seeing Sacramento at #40 and Memphis (via PHX) at #41. Either would have a warm welcome for a Duke player.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wow, even Zion didn't have the power to draft himself! Good for Cassius Stanley to make that trade with Phoenix.

What team did you mean? I'm seeing Sacramento at #40 and Memphis (via PHX) at #41. Either would have a warm welcome for a Duke player.

Oops! Memphis Grizzlies. Vecenie used the standings as of Monday (2/10) to put this list together.

[wsb3]

I didn't want to start a thread for this article that I read yesterday. I thought it was interesting and maybe it fits okay here, with it being about players leaving early for the Pros. Bob Huggins did not hold back about young kids getting bad advice, even at times from their family.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...ly/4735520002/

Quote from the article.

"I don't think that has anything to do whether a guy stays or goes. I think it's the people in their ears," Huggins said. "And the people that really don't care about them but care about themselves and care about trying to make some money off of them, trying to enhance their own lifestyle as opposed to doing what's best for them..."

[flyingdutchdevil]

I didn't want to start a thread for this article that I read yesterday. I thought it was interesting and maybe it fits okay here, with it being about players leaving early for the Pros. Bob Huggins did not hold back about young kids getting bad advice, even at times from their family.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...ly/4735520002/

Quote from the article.

"I don't think that has anything to do whether a guy stays or goes. I think it's the people in their ears," Huggins said. "And the people that really don't care about them but care about themselves and care about trying to make some money off of them, trying to enhance their own lifestyle as opposed to doing what's best for them..."

Tough to disagree with Huggins. I certainly think this has happened at Duke over the last 3-4 years (especially with undrafted players / 2nd round players).

I'd argue Duke has 1 sure fire first rounder this year (Carey, although he could go in the teens or in the late 20s. Neither would surprise me). Every other player is more of a 2nd rounder but has the ability to be a 1st rounder given how bad this draft is.

[English]

Tough to disagree with Huggins. I certainly think this has happened at Duke over the last 3-4 years (especially with undrafted players / 2nd round players).

I'd argue Duke has 1 sure fire first rounder this year (Carey, although he could go in the teens or in the late 20s. Neither would surprise me). Every other player is more of a 2nd rounder but has the ability to be a 1st rounder given how bad this draft is.

If Vern is a sure fire 1st rounder, I'd say Tre Jones is safely in the first round of this weak draft. He's been in the first round of every mock I've seen in the last few months. He's currently 23nd at ESPN's latest mock, which was done about a month ago by Jonathan Givony whose opinion, along with Mike Schmitz', I value.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Tough to disagree with Huggins. I certainly think this has happened at Duke over the last 3-4 years (especially with undrafted players / 2nd round players).

I'd argue Duke has 1 sure fire first rounder this year (Carey, although he could go in the teens or in the late 20s. Neither would surprise me). Every other player is more of a 2nd rounder but has the ability to be a 1st rounder given how bad this draft is.

Duke has had remarkably few players leave early and not find success in the process of getting to the NBA.

Only 2 Duke players have left early and gone in the 2nd round - Frank Jackson and Gary Trent, Jr. Both of those guys got signed to guaranteed contracts and have been NBA players for the majority of their time since leaving Duke. It was not a mistake for them to leave Duke.

Trevon Duval and Marques Bolden went undrafted. Those are the only two Duke players that left with eligibility remaining since Shavlik Randolph in 2006. And both of those guys got a 10-day contract to play in the NBA the next year.

So that's 4 guys that left early and didn't go in the 1st round. Two of those guys are NBA players and play most nights (Frank Jackson less so than Gary Trent, Jr.) and another two guys that got to play in the NBA. During the one-and-done era (2010-11, since Kyrie Irving as this denotes the first "true" one-and-done at Duke), there have been another 34 or so guys that have played in the NBA after leaving Duke. That's a really high success rate if you ask me.

I know it is a common refrain around here that players getting drafted in the 2nd round are destined for the G-League and non-guaranteed contracts. The facts don't bear that out. Most guys drafted early in the 2nd round are getting multi-year deals from the NBA teams that drafted them. I expect that, if Hurt, Stanley, Jones, or Carey fall to the second round, a team is going to give them a guaranteed contract and they are going to playing in the NBA most of their rookie year. Of the first 14 guys selected in the 2nd round of the 2019 NBA draft, all but 3 have played a game in the NBA so far. Of the three, 2 are Euro players still playing in Europe and the third is Bol Bol, a guy that had serious health issues last year. Most of the top 14 2nd rounders have played a dozen or more games so far. There are even rotation guys like Cody Martin with Charlotte and a starter in Eric Paschall with Golden State.

[gam7]

Updated 2020 Mock for NBADraft.net - https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

12. Vernon Carey, Jr.
36. Cassius Stanley
51. Tre Jones

Updated 2020 Mock from Givony - https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...risers-fallers (behind paywall):

29. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Tre Jones
49. Cassius Stanley

My takeaways:

1. There's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to where the Duke prospects will go.
2. My gut tells me there is no way that Tre goes #51. I think Givony has him pegged in the right general area (give or take 5 picks or so).
3. I also think there is no way Carey goes #29. I think Carey goes between 15-20. If he expects to go #29, I think it's a fair question to ask whether he would come back for a second year.
4. I really don't know what to make of Cassius's draft stock. I haven't seen any mock projecting him in the first round. He's been so good for Duke this year, and is clearly NBA-ready athletically, but for some reason I have trouble visualizing how his game translates to the NBA... I guess I'm not alone.

This is neither here nor there, but I think 2020 Cassius is probably what the coaching staff back in 1994-95 had hoped 1995 Ricky Price would be.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Updated 2020 Mock for NBADraft.net - https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

12. Vernon Carey, Jr.
36. Cassius Stanley
51. Tre Jones

Updated 2020 Mock from Givony - https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...risers-fallers (behind paywall):

29. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Tre Jones
49. Cassius Stanley

My takeaways:

1. There's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to where the Duke prospects will go.
2. My gut tells me there is no way that Tre goes #51. I think Givony has him pegged in the right general area (give or take 5 picks or so).
3. I also think there is no way Carey goes #29. I think Carey goes between 15-20. If he expects to go #29, I think it's a fair question to ask whether he would come back for a second year.
4. I really don't know what to make of Cassius's draft stock. I haven't seen any mock projecting him in the first round. He's been so good for Duke this year, and is clearly NBA-ready athletically, but for some reason I have trouble visualizing how his game translates to the NBA... I guess I'm not alone.

This is neither here nor there, but I think 2020 Cassius is probably what the coaching staff back in 1994-95 had hoped 1995 Ricky Price would be.

Stanley's stock will skyrocket after we go get a few banners.

[jimsumner]

Well, somebody has to go pro early.

Right now Duke has 14 committed scholarships for next season.

But I do not think this will be a problem.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Updated 2020 Mock for NBADraft.net - https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

12. Vernon Carey, Jr.
36. Cassius Stanley
51. Tre Jones

Updated 2020 Mock from Givony - https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...risers-fallers (behind paywall):

29. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Tre Jones
49. Cassius Stanley

My takeaways:

1. There's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to where the Duke prospects will go.
2. My gut tells me there is no way that Tre goes #51. I think Givony has him pegged in the right general area (give or take 5 picks or so).
3. I also think there is no way Carey goes #29. I think Carey goes between 15-20. If he expects to go #29, I think it's a fair question to ask whether he would come back for a second year.
4. I really don't know what to make of Cassius's draft stock. I haven't seen any mock projecting him in the first round. He's been so good for Duke this year, and is clearly NBA-ready athletically, but for some reason I have trouble visualizing how his game translates to the NBA... I guess I'm not alone.

This is neither here nor there, but I think 2020 Cassius is probably what the coaching staff back in 1994-95 had hoped 1995 Ricky Price would be.

Ask and ye shall receive. Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report has a new mock draft out today.

17. Tre Jones
26. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Cassius Stanley

I've never really trusted NBADraft.net. I think mid-to-late 1st is the consensus on Tre Jones right now and late 1st is where Vernon Carey, Jr. is slotted. Stanley is creeping up into the early 2nd/late 1st territory on a lot of mock drafts.

[gam7]

Ask and ye shall receive. Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report has a new mock draft out today.

17. Tre Jones
26. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Cassius Stanley

I've never really trusted NBADraft.net. I think mid-to-late 1st is the consensus on Tre Jones right now and late 1st is where Vernon Carey, Jr. is slotted. Stanley is creeping up into the early 2nd/late 1st territory on a lot of mock drafts.

Ha, thanks! Truth be told, I don't trust nbadraft.net either. But God help us if we are instead relying on the accuracy of Bleacher Report!

[roywhite]

I wish all these guys well for pro careers, but frankly I like the idea of sophomores Wendell Moore, Jr. and Matthew Hurt playing for Duke in 2020-21. And I'll be happy to see senior guards Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell playing key roles on that team, too.

[arnie]

I wish all these guys well for pro careers, but frankly I like the idea of sophomores Wendell Moore, Jr. and Matthew Hurt playing for Duke in 2020-21. And I'll be happy to see senior guards Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell playing key roles on that team, too.

YES, with the incoming freshmen, O’Connell, Goldwire, Baker, Moore and Hurt we could be deeper than this year and have a great mix of experience and talent. Bit early, but could be Top 5 again with that lineup.

[UrinalCake]

YES, with the incoming freshmen, O’Connell, Goldwire, Baker, Moore and Hurt we could be deeper than this year and have a great mix of experience and talent. Bit early, but could be Top 5 again with that lineup.

We would absolutely be top 5 with that lineup, very possibly #1. I actually think we'd play small ball quite a bit.

Roach / Goldwire
Steward / O'Connell
Moore / Baker
Johnson / Brakefield
Hurt / Williams / Coleman

I'm not sure how good that lineup will be defensively, but nobody is stopping us on offense. The second five would be a competitive team by themselves. We'd have the flexibility to go big with Williams at center, Hurt and Johnson playing up. And from what I've read Johnson could even play point forward. The crazy thing is that this lineup isn't that far-fetched, though obviously we're a long way from those decisions being made.

[arnie]

We would absolutely be top 5 with that lineup, very possibly #1. I actually think we'd play small ball quite a bit.

Roach / Goldwire
Steward / O'Connell
Moore / Baker
Johnson / Brakefield
Hurt / Williams / Coleman

I'm not sure how good that lineup will be defensively, but nobody is stopping us on offense. The second five would be a competitive team by themselves. We'd have the flexibility to go big with Williams at center, Hurt and Johnson playing up. And from what I've read Johnson could even play point forward. The crazy thing is that this lineup isn't that far-fetched, though obviously we're a long way from those decisions being made.

Don’t know about #1. Roy has that locked up with the return of Anthony/Bacot and the rest, coupled with the great Freshman class. And don’t forget emergence of Platek😀