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  1. #321
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I have no idea who Jason McIntyre is, but Tillman at 17 and Vernon not in the first 30 seems hard to believe.
    I saw that and thought the exact same thing, but then I thought we need to do whatever we can to put this in front of Xavier Tillman's face ASAP to get him out of East Lansing.

    An interesting subplot to the CBB offseason that's gone under the radar is that Joshua Langford is apparently considering trying to make a quasi-comeback for the Spartans as a fifth-year senior after missing the last year and a half. If he returns and is even a fraction of the player he once was he'd give the Spartans exactly what that team needs, namely experienced leadership... if Tillman leaves for the draft along with the graduating Cassius Winston the Spartans will be a group of very young players who have shown flashes, but mostly underachieved relative to their potential. I see the Spartans as a team that will struggle and be a Fringe Top-25 team, especially in the B1G gauntlet, this coming season, without Tillman and Langford (although they'll of course start the season ranked highly given the media's love of Tom Izzo). With Tillman and Langford, they're a legit Top 10 team all year. With one of the two, who knows.
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  2. #322
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    An NBA Draft? Spontaneous reactions from athletes? Highlight clips? Planned 2020-21 lineups? Count me in!
    Maybe we'll have seen some actual live sports by September, but I'm not counting those chickens.

    But I'll watch the draft, even if the players aren't as good as last year's crew. I want to learn which of Nigeria's 500 languages were spoken at home by Precious Achiuwa's minister parents, whether Deni Avdija is the best Israeli-Serbian basketball player of all time, and whether the group thinks Nico Manion will become the best red headed NBA player to have dual Italian citizenship.

    I'm ready...

  3. #323
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    As for the draft, I'm guessing all 3 of our guys are a bit unlucky this year.

    A Tyus-type NCAA tournament, with some decent shooting, and Tre nears the lottery.

    Pre draft workouts for Cassius? 3 on 3 games? Vertical leaps? Schmoozing with guys who know his dad, the professional agent? He could have gone in the teens.

    As for Carey, more time on tv would remind people that his first name isn't Jahlil or Jabari. Even if they couldn't figure that out, he could also remind them that Jahlil at 3 and Jabari at 2 were probably too high, but Vernon, Jahlil, and Jabari at 20 would, in retrospect, be just fine.

  4. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    As for the draft, I'm guessing all 3 of our guys are a bit unlucky this year.

    A Tyus-type NCAA tournament, with some decent shooting, and Tre nears the lottery.

    Pre draft workouts for Cassius? 3 on 3 games? Vertical leaps? Schmoozing with guys who know his dad, the professional agent? He could have gone in the teens.

    As for Carey, more time on tv would remind people that his first name isn't Jahlil or Jabari. Even if they couldn't figure that out, he could also remind them that Jahlil at 3 and Jabari at 2 were probably too high, but Vernon, Jahlil, and Jabari at 20 would, in retrospect, be just fine.
    I'm relaxed. Boozer -- such a magnificent talent -- was taken in the second round despite earning A-A honors his last year at Duke. He got even. Carey will do just fine no matter where drafted.
    Sage Grouse

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  5. #325
    I think a team is going to take a chance on Carey before where he is currently being projected. Would not be surprised if he went just outside the lottery.

  6. #326
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    2020 NBA Draft

    There was a thread on it, not sure why it got locked, but since it was I'm starting this one.
    The lottery is being held tomorrow, so we'll have a better feel for the possible picks afterwards.

    Most mock drafts I've seen have our three guys going pretty late, in the mid 20s to the second round. And most of those only include Jones and Stanley.

    My question is, why is Vernon regarded so lowly, and being that he is, who suggested that he take the leap after last season and why?
    Obviously he is extremely talented, and got awards saying so, but the NBA seems to have other thoughts.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #327
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    I find Carey's poor draft stock somewhat mystifying. I get why he is not a lottery-level prospect because he is not a fabulous run-jump athlete and his skill set around the basket is not considered valuable in today's NBA. But it is not like finishing inside is useless and he showed himself to be a good rebounder and decent shot-blocker. More importantly, he has decent touch on his outside shot and is not reluctant to take it. I won't be at all surprised if he turns into a big who can stretch Ds, at least a little bit.

    The notion that he drops to the mid-2nd round seems insane to me... but I am not a NBA GM.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The notion that he drops to the mid-2nd round seems insane to me... but I am not a NBA GM.
    This is what has me asking the question. I mean, we've all heard about how K and the staff had deep ties to NBA folks, and they know the process and evaluations, and pass that knowledge along to the guys getting ready to make the leap. I've not seen one mock that has ever had Vernon in the lottery, and as noted, most don't even have him in the first round. It's not like some guy that is expected to go high, and then the next day people are scratching their heads wondering why he dropped. In this case the surprise will be if he actually does go in the first, much less the top 20. With that kind of risk, why was he advised to leave? I'm assuming he was advised to make the move, maybe he wasn't and elected to jump anyway, but I've not heard anything but support for his decision.
    That is literally millions of dollars left on the table.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #329
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    This is what has me asking the question. I mean, we've all heard about how K and the staff had deep ties to NBA folks, and they know the process and evaluations, and pass that knowledge along to the guys getting ready to make the leap. I've not seen one mock that has ever had Vernon in the lottery, and as noted, most don't even have him in the first round. It's not like some guy that is expected to go high, and then the next day people are scratching their heads wondering why he dropped. In this case the surprise will be if he actually does go in the first, much less the top 20. With that kind of risk, why was he advised to leave? I'm assuming he was advised to make the move, maybe he wasn't and elected to jump anyway, but I've not heard anything but support for his decision.
    That is literally millions of dollars left on the table.
    Unless the NBA has a major paradigm shift in terms of what teams value, what is going to change for him in a year? Unless he really, really loves being in school, he won't gain anything from sticking around. He could win National Player of the Year and it wouldn't change much. This is part of why I'm not a huge NBA fan (not in terms of Carey specifically but the changes in what is prioritized in the game).

  10. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Unless the NBA has a major paradigm shift in terms of what teams value, what is going to change for him in a year? Unless he really, really loves being in school, he won't gain anything from sticking around. He could win National Player of the Year and it wouldn't change much. This is part of why I'm not a huge NBA fan (not in terms of Carey specifically but the changes in what is prioritized in the game).
    Your argument says that K and Company would say to him "You're really good, but missing some things that NBA is looking for. However, you've hit your peak, and we can't teach you and help you improve, so best wishes."
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  11. #331
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I find Carey's poor draft stock somewhat mystifying. I get why he is not a lottery-level prospect because he is not a fabulous run-jump athlete and his skill set around the basket is not considered valuable in today's NBA. But it is not like finishing inside is useless and he showed himself to be a good rebounder and decent shot-blocker. More importantly, he has decent touch on his outside shot and is not reluctant to take it. I won't be at all surprised if he turns into a big who can stretch Ds, at least a little bit.

    The notion that he drops to the mid-2nd round seems insane to me... but I am not a NBA GM.
    Me too. I wonder if he will be the next Carlos Boozer? They are not an exact match in game or physique, but are both excellent post players that seem to be undervalued by the NBA at this point in their career.

    My guess is that Carey does not fall into the second round and someone snaps him up at great value mid-to-late first round. But I’ve been wrong before, once or twice, and it might happen again.
    Carolina delenda est

  12. #332
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    This post lottery mock draft on ESPN has every single one of our guys going 2nd round, with Stanley last at 50th.

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ottery-winners
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #333
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    This post lottery mock draft on ESPN has every single one of our guys going 2nd round, with Stanley last at 50th.

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ottery-winners
    Seems like one could reasonably see flips between Udoka Azubuike (30) and Carey (32) or between Cassius Winston (29) and either Tre or Devon Dotson (35 and 36), in which case it's still possible Carey or Tre could go first.

    ESPN putting Cole Anthony outside the lottery would be a big fall below expectations for him.

    I'm a little surprised by how highly rated FSU's guys have been -- Vassell and Patrick Williams seem like consensus Top 15 picks and are 11 and 13 here.

    The stats don't seem to show much difference between, Vassell (11) and Cassius (50), who are both listed at 6-6, other than, I guess, Vassell was a bit better 3 point shooter this year (though their FT rates are almost identical) and Vassell is, oddly, a full year younger than Cassius, despite having played 2 years at FSU:

    GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
    30 28.8 49.0 41.5 73.8 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 12.7

    GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
    29 27.4 47.4 36.0 73.3 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.9 12.6

  14. #334
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Seems like one could reasonably see flips between Udoka Azubuike (30) and Carey (32) or between Cassius Winston (29) and either Tre or Devon Dotson (35 and 36), in which case it's still possible Carey or Tre could go first.

    ESPN putting Cole Anthony outside the lottery would be a big fall below expectations for him.

    I'm a little surprised by how highly rated FSU's guys have been -- Vassell and Patrick Williams seem like consensus Top 15 picks and are 11 and 13 here.

    The stats don't seem to show much difference between, Vassell (11) and Cassius (50), who are both listed at 6-6, other than, I guess, Vassell was a bit better 3 point shooter this year (though their FT rates are almost identical) and Vassell is, oddly, a full year younger than Cassius, despite having played 2 years at FSU:

    GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
    30 28.8 49.0 41.5 73.8 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 12.7

    GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
    29 27.4 47.4 36.0 73.3 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.9 12.6
    Age does factor in here. As does defense, where Vassell is a stud. As does the fact that Vassell is a lot longer and perhaps even taller as well. That, and the more advanced metrics all lean heavily towards Vassell. He doubled Stanley in BPM, and comfortably bested him in PER and win shares per 40 minutes.

  15. #335
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    This post lottery mock draft on ESPN has every single one of our guys going 2nd round, with Stanley last at 50th.

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...ottery-winners
    I imagine there is less enthusiasm on DBR about the actual NBA Draft Lottery because it probably won't have a Duke player, but here is the order.

    1. Minnesota Timberwolves
    2. Golden State Warriors
    3. Charlotte Hornets
    4. Chicago Bulls
    5. Cleveland Cavaliers
    6. Atlanta Hawks
    7. Detroit Pistons
    8. New York Knicks
    9. Washington Wizards
    10. Phoenix Suns
    11. San Antonio Spurs
    12. Sacramento Kings
    13. New Orleans Pelicans
    14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)

    How neatly divided: West, West, East, East, East, East, East, East, East, West, West, West, West, East (from West). Watch the video if you are interested.

    nbadraftlottery2020.jpg

    Fun fact: two of these people were in the movie Twister. Jami Gertz played Dr. Melissa Reeves, and Trajan Langdon was the Category F5 tornado.

  16. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I imagine there is less enthusiasm on DBR about the actual NBA Draft Lottery because it probably won't have a Duke player, but here is the order.

    1. Minnesota Timberwolves
    2. Golden State Warriors
    3. Charlotte Hornets
    4. Chicago Bulls
    5. Cleveland Cavaliers
    6. Atlanta Hawks
    7. Detroit Pistons
    8. New York Knicks
    9. Washington Wizards
    10. Phoenix Suns
    11. San Antonio Spurs
    12. Sacramento Kings
    13. New Orleans Pelicans
    14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)

    How neatly divided: West, West, East, East, East, East, East, East, East, West, West, West, West, East (from West). Watch the video if you are interested.

    nbadraftlottery2020.jpg

    Fun fact: two of these people were in the movie Twister. Jami Gertz played Dr. Melissa Reeves, and Trajan Langdon was the Category F5 tornado.
    A coupla things:

    1. New York got screwed. Again. And I fear the Knicks are gonna go something really stupid to get LaMelo. Cus you know what always works in the modern NBA? Having a 1-2 combo (with RJ Barrett) that can't shoot 3s...

    2. The Dubs are going to be fun to watch in the offseason. There is zero chance they keep that pick, which is either Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, or James Wiseman. Three really good, young players. Couple that pick with other picks/young players/Wiggins and you can get any disgruntled star.

    3. I like what the Timerwolves are building. I assume Edwards is the natural choice here. But regardless of who they draft, that team is going to be awwwwwwful defensively. KAT and D'Angelo are already poor defensively; adding Edwards/Ball would be a disaster.

    4. What the hell are the Bulls gonna do? You already have a weird core in White, LaVine, Carter, and the Finnish Flash, but those pieces don't really work (okay. LaVine on any team doesn't work). Another fun team to watch during the draft.
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  17. #337
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    I don't follow the NBA as closely as others here but I was struck by the talk of teams near the top (such as the Warriors) expecting to trade down. Last time I looked, it takes two teams to make a trade. If there is not a really compelling reason to make a trade, why would a team give up a lot to move up? I don't see teams with top picks getting that much in return for those picks. Maybe it is just a lack of hype because most of the top picks don't come from blue blood college teams, but this seems to be one of the weakest drafts in a long time.

  18. #338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Seems like one could reasonably see flips between Udoka Azubuike (30) and Carey (32) or between Cassius Winston (29) and either Tre or Devon Dotson (35 and 36), in which case it's still possible Carey or Tre could go first.

    ESPN putting Cole Anthony outside the lottery would be a big fall below expectations for him.

    I'm a little surprised by how highly rated FSU's guys have been -- Vassell and Patrick Williams seem like consensus Top 15 picks and are 11 and 13 here.

    The stats don't seem to show much difference between, Vassell (11) and Cassius (50), who are both listed at 6-6, other than, I guess, Vassell was a bit better 3 point shooter this year (though their FT rates are almost identical) and Vassell is, oddly, a full year younger than Cassius, despite having played 2 years at FSU:

    GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
    30 28.8 49.0 41.5 73.8 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 12.7

    GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
    29 27.4 47.4 36.0 73.3 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.9 12.6
    If I got to pick for a team no way would Cole Anthony go outside the top 5 to 7 range.

    Cassius is a steal if he's not in the lottery
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking

  19. #339
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    A coupla things:

    1. New York got screwed. Again. And I fear the Knicks are gonna go something really stupid to get LaMelo. Cus you know what always works in the modern NBA? Having a 1-2 combo (with RJ Barrett) that can't shoot 3s...

    2. The Dubs are going to be fun to watch in the offseason. There is zero chance they keep that pick, which is either Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, or James Wiseman. Three really good, young players. Couple that pick with other picks/young players/Wiggins and you can get any disgruntled star.

    3. I like what the Timerwolves are building. I assume Edwards is the natural choice here. But regardless of who they draft, that team is going to be awwwwwwful defensively. KAT and D'Angelo are already poor defensively; adding Edwards/Ball would be a disaster.

    4. What the hell are the Bulls gonna do? You already have a weird core in White, LaVine, Carter, and the Finnish Flash, but those pieces don't really work (okay. LaVine on any team doesn't work). Another fun team to watch during the draft.
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I don't follow the NBA as closely as others here but I was struck by the talk of teams near the top (such as the Warriors) expecting to trade down. Last time I looked, it takes two teams to make a trade. If there is not a really compelling reason to make a trade, why would a team give up a lot to move up? I don't see teams with top picks getting that much in return for those picks. Maybe it is just a lack of hype because most of the top picks don't come from blue blood college teams, but this seems to be one of the weakest drafts in a long time.
    I, for one, don't see it at all as a done deal that the Warriors will trade the pick. One reason is what CrazyNotCrazy said: with there being no clear-cut No. 2 pick, is there going to be a team that views that as a huge asset, or valuable enough of one for the Warriors to get what they want out of it?

    Something else to keep in mind that I think is overlooked: the salary cap. Valuable rookies tend to outperform their cap hit, and the NBA's rules are such that you can go over the cap to resign you're own rookies in many situations where you couldn't do so to get a free agent. If I was the Warriors, who have huge money tied up into 3 (maybe 4 if you think they're going to keep Wiggins) players, I'd see the No. 2 pick as a way to get a significant piece for the next 4-5 years that will cost less than a similar caliber veteran role player.

    One more thing to consider: while Edwards and Ball wouldn't fill a need for the Warriors, who are obviously talented on the perimeter, Wiseman would, since they don't have a top-tier center on the team. Even if Wiseman isn't a star, but just a solid NBA center, he improves their starting lineup (Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman could be scary).
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  20. #340
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I imagine there is less enthusiasm on DBR about the actual NBA Draft Lottery because it probably won't have a Duke player, but here is the order.

    1. Minnesota Timberwolves
    2. Golden State Warriors
    3. Charlotte Hornets
    4. Chicago Bulls
    5. Cleveland Cavaliers
    6. Atlanta Hawks
    7. Detroit Pistons
    8. New York Knicks
    9. Washington Wizards
    10. Phoenix Suns
    11. San Antonio Spurs
    12. Sacramento Kings
    13. New Orleans Pelicans
    14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)

    How neatly divided: West, West, East, East, East, East, East, East, East, West, West, West, West, East (from West). Watch the video if you are interested.

    nbadraftlottery2020.jpg

    Fun fact: two of these people were in the movie Twister. Jami Gertz played Dr. Melissa Reeves, and Trajan Langdon was the Category F5 tornado.
    I am sad my beleaguered Washington Wizards did not move up in the draft. One of the weird quirks of the NBA bubble is that the bubble games did not impact lottery odds for teams not invited. Thus, the Wizards, who had the 9th worse record at the start of the bubble, lost a bunch and actually fell below the Hornets to 8th-worst in terms of winning percentage. But Charlotte, not Washington, got to keep the 8th-best odds for the lottery. Without that rule, it might have been the Wizards, not the Hornets, who moved up to the top of the draft.

    That said, I'm looking forward to drafting one spot behind the Knicks. I'm very hopeful that in a few years we'll look back at this and chuckle about how "in 2020 the Knicks drafted X, just one pick before perennial all-star Y."

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