Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[CDu]

Isaiah Steward is having plenty of issues adjusting to the college game. Kinda like James McAdoo.

Stewart has very little in common with McAdoo. His FG%, FT%, points per game, rebounds per game, and blocks per game are all substantially better than anything McAdoo ever did in college. So I don’t think it is at all fair to say that he is having issues adjusting to the college game. His stats are actually quite good.

Basically, he is doing about what Carey is doing, minus the 3pt shooting.

[907bluedevils]

Anthony has definitely dropped. He lost himself a ton of money coming back to UNC after he injured his knee (or ankle?).

Wiseman is weird. I think it's recency bias (or lack thereof). He's a really nice player.

Isaiah Steward is having plenty of issues adjusting to the college game. Kinda like James McAdoo.

If averaging 17 and 9 a game is having issues adjusting to the college game, I want Duke to get all the kids that have a hard time adjusting to the college game.

[Billy Dat]

Jonathan Tjarks makes the case for Cassius Stanley as an NBA prospect, based on the fact that he is already playing the role and NBA team would likely ask of him:
https://www.theringer.com/2020/2/27/...assius-stanley

[jv001]

Jonathan Tjarks makes the case for Cassius Stanley as an NBA prospect, based on the fact that he is already playing the role and NBA team would likely ask of him:
https://www.theringer.com/2020/2/27/...assius-stanley

I think Cassius is the player that could get Duke to an elite team. But he just doesn't seem to want to take a leading man role. If he was more like Wendell in wanting to take the shot, he would be an even better player. Cassius is not only a good offensive player, he's a very good defender. I wish our offense was set up for Tre to get him more involved. The only plays that we run for him is the lob pass.

GoDuke!

[kAzE]

I think Cassius is the player that could get Duke to an elite team. But he just doesn't seem to want to take a leading man role. If he was more like Wendell in wanting to take the shot, he would be an even better player. Cassius is not only a good offensive player, he's a very good defender. I wish our offense was set up for Tre to get him more involved. The only plays that we run for him is the lob pass.

GoDuke!

The point Tjarks was trying to make is that Stanley isn't really being used to his full potential at Duke. Duke doesn't have a dominant offensive player who can really run an offense. Tre is at best an average offensive guard (far below average in the NBA), but he's the best we've got with the ball in his hands. There are lots of guys in the NBA who can do that, and the best type of player to surround superstar players are guys who can shoot, play good defense, and don't need to have the ball in their hands on offense to contribute. This is basically what Milwaukee has done with Giannis.

Stanley is an NBA wing with good size and fits that description. Imagine him playing with guys like LeBron, Giannis, or even Zion. First, he'd be getting wide open looks from 3 because of the attention those guys draw when they get in the paint, and second, NBA teams are full of elite shooters, who would space the floor much better than this Duke team can, leaving the paint wide open for Stanley to slash or rim run for lobs.

I do think Stanley will be the best pro of this group of Duke players, but it's not necessarily because he's the most talented guy (Vernon is more talented), but because he's a perfect fit for the modern NBA. Whoever drafts him in the late first round or second round is getting a guy who will play 10-15 years as a strong 3&D role player, with potential for more if he develops his playmaking skills.

Unfortunately for Duke, we need more playmaking, which isn't really a strength for anyone on the team not named Tre Jones (and really, I'd say Tre is good, but not elite. He doesn't have great vision). Stanley would be better if we had more guys who could deliver him the ball in spots where he can just catch and finish.

It's frustrating, because we had way too many playmakers last year, but not enough shooting.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think Cassius is the player that could get Duke to an elite team. But he just doesn't seem to want to take a leading man role. If he was more like Wendell in wanting to take the shot, he would be an even better player. Cassius is not only a good offensive player, he's a very good defender. I wish our offense was set up for Tre to get him more involved. The only plays that we run for him is the lob pass.
GoDuke!

I really dislike the coaching design to put the ball in Moore's hands to create. He's just really, really bad at it. He has a poor a:to for a player tasked with creating. He's especially bad at creating from the dribble, but he's actually pretty effective if he receives the ball while moving. WIth more practice and awareness perhaps he can become a reasonable creator for the offense, but he hasn't developed (at all?) in that regard this year.

Unfortunately for Duke, we need more playmaking, which isn't really a strength for anyone on the team not named Tre Jones (and really, I'd say Tre is good, but not elite. He doesn't have great vision). Stanley would be better if we had more guys who could deliver him the ball in spots where he can just catch and finish.
It's frustrating, because we had way too many playmakers last year, but not enough shooting.

I disagree with the bold. Tre's got great vision and is an elite playmaker, but perhaps not elite at being BOTH a playmaker and a scoring threat. Some of his fast-break passes are spectacular, and he has been much better than any PG since his brother at feeding the post for Duke. Tre has flaws, like every player, but criticizing him for not being elite sounds poor to me.

[roywhite]

I really dislike the coaching design to put the ball in Moore's hands to create. He's just really, really bad at it. He has a poor a:to for a player tasked with creating. He's especially bad at creating from the dribble, but he's actually pretty effective if he receives the ball while moving. WIth more practice and awareness perhaps he can become a reasonable creator for the offense, but he hasn't developed (at all?) in that regard this year.

There's a lot I like about Wendell Moore. Against Wake, he shot well (5-8 FG), shot really well from the line (15-16), had 3 steals and played 40 minutes without fouling out. He's not afraid to make plays near the end of the game, and he's got strength and length. The major downside has been turnovers, and yes, it's been a real problem when he dribbles into a crowd. I can see him as a pro, but he needs to tighten his handle, and work on his shooting. He does make plays, good and bad. He can be a key part of a good tournament run.

As to this thread topic, I don't see him as a good candidate for the 2017 NBA draft.

[kAzE]

I disagree with the bold. Tre's got great vision and is an elite playmaker, but perhaps not elite at being BOTH a playmaker and a scoring threat. Some of his fast-break passes are spectacular, and he has been much better than any PG since his brother at feeding the post for Duke. Tre has flaws, like every player, but criticizing him for not being elite sounds poor to me.

Completely disagree . . . Tre's handles are far from elite, and he's way below average for an NBA point guard in terms of quickness and explosiveness. Those are all a huge part of being an elite play maker, which is why I said he's good, but not elite. He's really smart and very keen on details, which helps him be a good decision maker, as well as a good perimeter defender. I'm not criticizing him, he's a great college point guard, definitely the best PG at Duke since Tyus, but he's a backup point guard in the NBA.

Also, feeding the post has nothing to do with vision. It's pretty hard to miss Vernon Carey calling for the ball with his man on his hip in the post. Feeding the post is about accuracy and timing. Missing wide open shooters in transition because you're looking to take a contested pull up 3 is lacking vision.

[jv001]

The point Tjarks was trying to make is that Stanley isn't really being used to his full potential at Duke. Duke doesn't have a dominant offensive player who can really run an offense. Tre is at best an average offensive guard (far below average in the NBA), but he's the best we've got with the ball in his hands. There are lots of guys in the NBA who can do that, and the best type of player to surround superstar players are guys who can shoot, play good defense, and don't need to have the ball in their hands on offense to contribute. This is basically what Milwaukee has done with Giannis.

Stanley is an NBA wing with good size and fits that description. Imagine him playing with guys like LeBron, Giannis, or even Zion. First, he'd be getting wide open looks from 3 because of the attention those guys draw when they get in the paint, and second, NBA teams are full of elite shooters, who would space the floor much better than this Duke team can, leaving the paint wide open for Stanley to slash or rim run for lobs.

I do think Stanley will be the best pro of this group of Duke players, but it's not necessarily because he's the most talented guy (Vernon is more talented), but because he's a perfect fit for the modern NBA. Whoever drafts him in the late first round or second round is getting a guy who will play 10-15 years as a strong 3&D role player, with potential for more if he develops his playmaking skills.

Unfortunately for Duke, we need more playmaking, which isn't really a strength for anyone on the team not named Tre Jones (and really, I'd say Tre is good, but not elite. He doesn't have great vision). Stanley would be better if we had more guys who could deliver him the ball in spots where he can just catch and finish.

It's frustrating, because we had way too many playmakers last year, but not enough shooting.

I agree with everything you posted but the bolded. I don't think Vernon is more talented because of his defense. He has a hard time with the PNR in college and he will have an even harder time in the NBA. He has a great college low post game but that will not translate to the pros. He was a perimeter player in high school but I don't think he's quick enough to play the perimeter in the NBA. I think Cassius is the best all-around player for Duke and he will be the best NBA player on this Duke team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurt be the 2nd best if he returns to Duke bigger and stronger his sophomore season. I don't think the G league would benefit him as much as another year at Duke. As for Moore, I know another year at Duke would help him. Tre will be a good backup point guard in the NBA.

GoDuke!

[wsb3]

He has a great college low post game but that will not translate to the pros. He was a perimeter player in high school but I don't think he's quick enough to play the perimeter in the NBA. I think Cassius is the best all-around player for Duke and he will be the best NBA player on this Duke team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurt be the 2nd best if he returns to Duke bigger and stronger his sophomore season. I don't think the G league would benefit him as much as another year at Duke. As for Moore, I know another year at Duke would help him. Tre will be a good backup point guard in the NBA.

GoDuke!

I think you are right and I have thought the same about Carey. I would love to be proven wrong. From the beginning of this season I have thought Cassius has the most upside as a pro.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I really dislike the coaching design to put the ball in Moore's hands to create. He's just really, really bad at it. He has a poor a:to for a player tasked with creating. He's especially bad at creating from the dribble, but he's actually pretty effective if he receives the ball while moving. WIth more practice and awareness perhaps he can become a reasonable creator for the offense, but he hasn't developed (at all?) in that regard this year.



I disagree with the bold. Tre's got great vision and is an elite playmaker, but perhaps not elite at being BOTH a playmaker and a scoring threat. Some of his fast-break passes are spectacular, and he has been much better than any PG since his brother at feeding the post for Duke. Tre has flaws, like every player, but criticizing him for not being elite sounds poor to me.

Tre is elite for a college PG. He's a really good distributor with a 2.3 A:TO ratio. As a scorer, Tre is very good, but nowhere near elite. He is still mediocre at 3s with 33% 3pt shooting. His 2pt shooting has gone down from last year, but that's because he's hunting his shot a lot more.

But this is the NBA we're talking about, not college. In the NBA, Tre's strengths aren't going to be strengths. Tre's really good D in college will be a massive liability in the NBA. In college, Tre gets burned by fast PGs. You know who's faster than college PGs? NBA PGs. Also, Tre is great at moving his feet but has very little bulk. A beefy PG like Eric Bledsoe will feast on that everyday and twice on Sunday. Also, Tre's shooting is very subpar. He's getting better, but it's a clear NBA weakness right now. And if you're in the NBA, defense and shooting are two of the basics you really need to lock down if you're not elite at something.

[jv001]

Tre is elite for a college PG. He's a really good distributor with a 2.3 A:TO ratio. As a scorer, Tre is very good, but nowhere near elite. He is still mediocre at 3s with 33% 3pt shooting. His 2pt shooting has gone down from last year, but that's because he's hunting his shot a lot more.

But this is the NBA we're talking about, not college. In the NBA, Tre's strengths aren't going to be strengths. Tre's really good D in college will be a massive liability in the NBA. In college, Tre gets burned by fast PGs. You know who's faster than college PGs? NBA PGs. Also, Tre is great at moving his feet but has very little bulk. A beefy PG like Eric Bledsoe will feast on that everyday and twice on Sunday. Also, Tre's shooting is very subpar. He's getting better, but it's a clear NBA weakness right now. And if you're in the NBA, defense and shooting are two of the basics you really need to lock down if you're not elite at something.

Tre finishes at the hoop pretty well in college but he won't be able to that as well in the NBA. He really needs to improve his outside shot to have a chance to start or even play meaningful minutes in the pros.

GoDuke!

[Steven43]

Tre's really good D in college will be a massive liability in the NBA. In college, Tre gets burned by fast PGs.

I’m a bit confused by your comments here. On the one hand you say Tre plays “really good D”, but then you say he “gets burned by fast PGs”. Aren’t most PGs fast?

Truly not a criticism; just looking for clarification.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I’m a bit confused by your comments here. On the one hand you say Tre plays “really good D”, but then you say he “gets burned by fast PGs”. Aren’t most PGs fast?

Truly not a criticism; just looking for clarification.

I suspect he is referring to the fact that ALL NBA guards are faster than all but the top five percent of NCAA point guards.

I agree, Jones will have to improve, but so will almost everyone going to the next level.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I’m a bit confused by your comments here. On the one hand you say Tre plays “really good D”, but then you say he “gets burned by fast PGs”. Aren’t most PGs fast?

Truly not a criticism; just looking for clarification.

No- not all college PGs are that fast. The really fast ones, like Devon Dotson, Markell Johnson, etc can get around Tre. That said, these players can get around most PGs. But if Tre wants to hold his NBA hat on his D, he needs to stay in front of quick PGs.

Tre's D is based on quick footwork and active hands. But if that quick footwork is up against an extremely quick PG, Tre has problems keeping in front.

[Jaks19]

This is an interesting discussion. There are so many factors that go into being a good 1v1 defender. speed, agility, lateral movement, anticipation, knowing where you are on the floor, position of your teammates, what type of team defending is being applied, etc...

In Tre's case, his defending has been solid for the most part and it is something that he makes a priority. With that said, he is spending a lot of energy offensively and to put in the work to defend, he is just wearing down. Fatigue both mentally and physically play a big part in defending. All players will get beat off the bounce, but there's where you have to rely on team defending to have a second defender come and the rest of the team recover too positionally. Look at the UNC game, Tre was the reason Duke won that game but honestly, Cole Anthony had a pretty good game too. Good players will compete and at times win in their one on one situations. So in fairness to Tre, if his defending is good 90% of the time, the other 10%, he is getting beat which also could mean pts for the other team.

Tre is not a finished product as a PG but he is a good fit as the PG at Duke. He will need to make adjustments to transition into the NBA. His physical intangibles aren't as NBA coveted as say Tre Duval. So will be he be a good pro or how his career progresses is going to be fun to watch.

[jv001]

This is an interesting discussion. There are so many factors that go into being a good 1v1 defender. speed, agility, lateral movement, anticipation, knowing where you are on the floor, position of your teammates, what type of team defending is being applied, etc...

In Tre's case, his defending has been solid for the most part and it is something that he makes a priority. With that said, he is spending a lot of energy offensively and to put in the work to defend, he is just wearing down. Fatigue both mentally and physically play a big part in defending. All players will get beat off the bounce, but there's where you have to rely on team defending to have a second defender come and the rest of the team recover too positionally. Look at the UNC game, Tre was the reason Duke won that game but honestly, Cole Anthony had a pretty good game too. Good players will compete and at times win in their one on one situations. So in fairness to Tre, if his defending is good 90% of the time, the other 10%, he is getting beat which also could mean pts for the other team.

Tre is not a finished product as a PG but he is a good fit as the PG at Duke. He will need to make adjustments to transition into the NBA. His physical intangibles aren't as NBA coveted as say Tre Duval. So will be he be a good pro or how his career progresses is going to be fun to watch.

But Tre Jones is a much better shooter than Tre Duval. However Duval is faster and quicker than Jones. I agree with the defensive part of the Tre vs. Tre post.

GoDuke!

[Natty_B]

The Athletic has their top 100 draft prospects ranked today:

24. Jones
26. Carey
42. Stanley
43. Hurt

[English]

No- not all college PGs are that fast. The really fast ones, like Devon Dotson, Markell Johnson, etc can get around Tre. That said, these players can get around most PGs. But if Tre wants to hold his NBA hat on his D, he needs to stay in front of quick PGs.

Tre's D is based on quick footwork and active hands. But if that quick footwork is up against an extremely quick PG, Tre has problems keeping in front.

Minor quibble, but Dotson had 6 turnovers against Duke/Tre and a TOV% of 32+%...I haven't gone back to watch that game, but I'd say Tre's defense on really fast Devon Dotson was just fine. Your bigger point about defending really fast NBA PGs certainly stands, but as you noted, those guys are really hard to guard for anyone, including top-notch NBA defenders.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The Athletic has their top 100 draft prospects ranked today:

24. Jones
26. Carey
42. Stanley
43. Hurt

Being more of a college ball fan than the NBA, I would have Stanley and Carey higher, Jones lower. I hope a list like this would encourage all four to think long and hard about a return. When Duke players leave early and end up in the second round, it feels like everyone loses.