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  1. #1
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is online now Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

    It's never too early to start looking wayyyyyy ahead to next year's draft!!!

    SI.com has their "way too early" 2020 Big Board up. It's quite interesting with regards to Duke players. Particularly:
    • Vernon Carey is the first Duke guy to show up, and he's all the way down to 25. After being a consensus Top 5 recruit and projected lottery pick for so long, this seems to fit with the storyline that scouts have soured on him slightly. I imagine someone will subtly let him know to add fuel to his fire
    • The list is only a Top 30, so Tre Jones, Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore are nowhere to be found.

    FWIW, the 2020 Mock Draft at NBADraft.net was updated fairly recently, and has Carey at 13, Tre barely in the first round at 29, and Javin in the second round... none of our other freshmen are on the list. This site isn't the be all and end all, obviously, but between that and SI's Big Board it seems clear that none of our freshmen besides Carey are considered one-and-done "locks" by the scouting community.

    That said, if Hurt shows the shooting touch we all expect, considering how the draft went (with Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro jumping into the lottery based on shooting, and a guy like Jordan Poole who was initially viewed as an undrafted prospect jumping into the late first round as a deadeye shooter) he could easily make a monumental leap.

    Obviously these projections are the very definition of "way too early", but I think it bears emphasizing that this year's team will be different than the last few years... there are no consensus projected lottery picks amongst our very talented freshmen.
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    It's never too early to start looking wayyyyyy ahead to next year's draft!!!

    SI.com has their "way too early" 2020 Big Board up. It's quite interesting with regards to Duke players. Particularly:
    • Vernon Carey is the first Duke guy to show up, and he's all the way down to 25. After being a consensus Top 5 recruit and projected lottery pick for so long, this seems to fit with the storyline that scouts have soured on him slightly. I imagine someone will subtly let him know to add fuel to his fire
    • The list is only a Top 30, so Tre Jones, Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore are nowhere to be found.

    FWIW, the 2020 Mock Draft at NBADraft.net was updated fairly recently, and has Carey at 13, Tre barely in the first round at 29, and Javin in the second round... none of our other freshmen are on the list. This site isn't the be all and end all, obviously, but between that and SI's Big Board it seems clear that none of our freshmen besides Carey are considered one-and-done "locks" by the scouting community.

    That said, if Hurt shows the shooting touch we all expect, considering how the draft went (with Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro jumping into the lottery based on shooting, and a guy like Jordan Poole who was initially viewed as an undrafted prospect jumping into the late first round as a deadeye shooter) he could easily make a monumental leap.

    Obviously these projections are the very definition of "way too early", but I think it bears emphasizing that this year's team will be different than the last few years... there are no consensus projected lottery picks amongst our very talented freshmen.
    ESPN is more positive about the Duke players:

    #13 - Hurt
    #16 - Tre
    #17 - Moore
    #22 - Carey
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  3. #3
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    ESPN is more positive about the Duke players:

    #13 - Hurt
    #16 - Tre
    #17 - Moore
    #22 - Carey
    Thanks for that... ESPN's mock is behind the ESPN+ paywall now

    At this point I think Tre in the late teens makes much more sense than outside of the Top 30 entirely. And the Hurt ranking on ESPN seems to fit more with the emphasis on shooting we saw in this year's draft. And Carey will be a first rounder, it just depends where. To me Moore is the biggest unknown with regards to NBA game... is he a defensive specialist (a couple of those did get drafted in the late first round this year)? Can he develop his shot into a 3-and-D guy (in which case he's got the possibility to move into the lottery)? Is he a more complete small forward a-la Justice Winslow/Jayson Tatum? That'll be interesting to watch not just for this year's team but for his draft stock.
    Scott Rich on the front page

    Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
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    K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012

    Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
    If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!

  4. #4
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    Speaking of Vernon Carey and his draft position, there may be some family competition as to where he gets selected...his father, Vernon Carey, Sr. was the 19th pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

    And this will make us feel older...Vernon, Sr. was drafted in 2004.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Speaking of Vernon Carey and his draft position, there may be some family competition as to where he gets selected...his father, Vernon Carey, Sr. was the 19th pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

    And this will make us feel older...Vernon, Sr. was drafted in 2004.
    I remember when the 21st century was brand spanking new. It's almost drinking age now.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Speaking of Vernon Carey and his draft position, there may be some family competition as to where he gets selected...his father, Vernon Carey, Sr. was the 19th pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

    And this will make us feel older...Vernon, Sr. was drafted in 2004.
    thread hijack? yeah, but it's a long time till the 2020 NBA draft, so what the heck...

    https://dymelyfe.com/blogs/news/spor...first-rounders

    Sports Illustrated- When the Canes Ruled the Draft: The Year Miami Had Six First-Rounders

    Carey had long expected to be in this position. Coming out of high school, he was one of the top recruits in the country—and the status may have gone to his head. “Vernon was a highly, highly sought-after recruit,” says Swasey, the strength coach. “Being all over the country eating on every trip—by the time he showed up, it was like, damn. He was up to 380-something, I think. I mean, he was heavy.” As a result, Carey redshirted his first year and mostly served as a backup the following two seasons.

    Around that time, Carey received two wake-up calls. First, his girlfriend gave birth to their first child, a boy they named Vernon Carey Jr. Then he watched the Minnesota Vikings draft his Miami teammate Bryant McKinnie at No. 7 overall in 2002.

  7. #7
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    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #8
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    New Mock Draft at SI.com

    SI.com has a new "preseason" mock draft up. Interestingly, Wendell Moore is now Duke's lone representative in the first round, listed as going No. 15. I think the analysis by the writer here is on point: namely, even if Moore is limited offensively (which has seemed to be the takeaway from the preseason), his NBA-made body and athleticism could allow him to find his way into the first round regardless, especially in a relatively weak draft year.

    I imagine this will fluctuate WILDLY throughout the season... to my eye this may be the most unpredictable year when it comes to the draft in quite some time, perhaps since Anthony Bennett was the surprise No. 1 overall pick in 2013. But to those discussing (in other threads) the concern that Duke may be overcommitting when it comes to scholarships and recruiting, I think this is a very interesting data point, that at least one prognosticator thinks Moore is a first round pick even with his limitations. Given how weak this year's draft is, I think there's very little chance that ALL of our underclassmen return, for better or worse... and I imagine K knows this too and is recruiting accordingly.
    Scott Rich on the front page

    Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
    Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
    K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012

    Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
    If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!

  9. #9
    Givony's latest mock draft at ESPN (from about a month ago) has Hurt at #16, Tre at #18, Moore #19, Carey #27 and Stanley not projected in the Top 60.

    I think there is significant built in expectation that Tre's 3pt shooting will meaningfully improve in that ranking.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Givony's latest mock draft at ESPN (from about a month ago) has Hurt at #16, Tre at #18, Moore #19, Carey #27 and Stanley not projected in the Top 60.

    I think there is significant built in expectation that Tre's 3pt shooting will meaningfully improve in that ranking.
    Givony's updated his NBA draft board at ESPN, https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable

    His rankings of the Duke guys are roughly the same: #16 Matthew Hurt, #19 Tre Jones, #20 Wendell Moore, #28 Vernon Carey, Stanley-unranked.

    He's got Boogie Ellis at #48.

    Jordan Nwora at #34. Most of the other NBA draftniks have Nwora in the same range, which seems a bit low given how productive he is expected to be this season.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Jordan Nwora at #34. Most of the other NBA draftniks have Nwora in the same range, which seems a bit low given how productive he is expected to be this season.
    College productivity and NBA draft stock are not necessarily linked, as you well know. That said, I agree with you that Nwora seems to have skills that should translate to the next level. I could see him as a pretty good 3&D wing and those are certainly worth a mid-late first rounder.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #12
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    For everyone who seems to have forgotten that NBA drafts don't always skew toward what college basketball fans think (or reflect college performance much at all), most of the larger hoops sites have updated their mocks in the last 1-2 days...obviously with the caveat that plenty can & will change over the course of the next few months...

    Some Duke notables:
    The Athletic--Matthew Hurt (No. 13), Wendell Moore (No. 15), Tre Jones (No. 23), Vernon Carey (No. 47)
    CBSSports--Matthew Hurt (No. 20), Tre Jones (No. 24), Wendell Moore (No. 30)
    Sporting News--Matthew Hurt (No. 17), Wendell Moore (No. 20), Tre Jones (No. 24), Vernon Carey (No. 26)
    ESPN--Matthew Hurt (No. 16), Tre Jones (No. 19), Wendell Moore (No. 20), Vernon Carey (No. 28)
    Haters gonna hate.

  13. #13
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    Latest ESPN Mock Draft released earlier today:

    Vernon Carey - 18
    Tre Jones - 21
    Matthew Hurt - 32 (2nd round)
    Cassius Stanley - 53 (2nd round)

    Wendell Moore nowhere to be found.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Latest ESPN Mock Draft released earlier today:

    Vernon Carey - 18
    Tre Jones - 21
    Matthew Hurt - 32 (2nd round)
    Cassius Stanley - 53 (2nd round)

    Wendell Moore nowhere to be found.
    I could get behind this starting lineup. Is it too early for a minutes discussion?
    - Jeremy Roach
    - Stanley
    - Moore/Baker
    - Jalen Johnson
    - Hurt (stretch 5) after gaining 25 pounds of off-season muscle

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    SI.com has a new "preseason" mock draft up. Interestingly, Wendell Moore is now Duke's lone representative in the first round, listed as going No. 15. I think the analysis by the writer here is on point: namely, even if Moore is limited offensively (which has seemed to be the takeaway from the preseason), his NBA-made body and athleticism could allow him to find his way into the first round regardless, especially in a relatively weak draft year.
    What athleticism are you referring to? Wendell is not an elite athlete, even by college standards. He hasn't shown the ability to beat college defenders off the dribble without the use of a screen, and his lack of explosiveness limits his ability to finish at the rim. He does have size, and a very good frame, and shows some ability on the defensive end, but he is by no means a superior run/jump/quick twitch athlete. I suspect he has hurt himself in the eyes of NBA scouts through 8 college games thus far, but it's probably because I think everyone overestimated his athleticism. Before I saw him play, I thought he would be dunking on people with regularity, too. He's just not that type of athlete.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    I could get behind this starting lineup. Is it too early for a minutes discussion?
    - Jeremy Roach
    - Stanley
    - Moore/Baker
    - Jalen Johnson
    - Hurt (stretch 5) after gaining 25 pounds of off-season muscle
    From what I have heard, it is going to be very hard to keep DJ Steward's scoring punch out of the starting lineup.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    From what I have heard, it is going to be very hard to keep DJ Steward's scoring punch out of the starting lineup.
    Can he play center?

    No, good point. Iíve read he is on the rise and a big time scorer.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Latest ESPN Mock Draft released earlier today:

    Vernon Carey - 18
    Tre Jones - 21
    Matthew Hurt - 32 (2nd round)
    Cassius Stanley - 53 (2nd round)

    Wendell Moore nowhere to be found.
    This more or less meets my expectations. Carey has done a lot to improve his position and is moving towards the lottery. He's a guy that is a plus offensively and at least passable on defense. There's a lot of value there for a variety of NBA teams. Tre Jones may never be a starting PG in the NBA, but he's got great value and is answering questions about his shooting. Hurt has slipped a little, but his shooting and basketball IQ at 6'9" leaves a lot to like in the modern NBA. I could see him shooting up the draft board during conference play. Stanley wasn't on draft boards over the summer and is starting to show up. He's a big guard with elite athleticism and a pretty good looking shot. Honestly, I wonder if he will move to late 1st/early 2nd round if he comes back healthy in about a month.

    Moore has a lot of skills but appears to lack any kind of NBA skillset at the moment. The frame is good. The length is excellent as a multi-positional defender. The handles are pretty good. He has shown flashes of being a very good passer when he isn't turning the ball over. But he lacks the quickness and explosion to get to the rim at the moment. Honestly, I think he's going to be an excellent college player soon, either at the end of this year or next. I sort of hope it is next year as he's a very good player and he screams "sophomore leap" all over him, to my eyes at least.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    This more or less meets my expectations. Carey has done a lot to improve his position and is moving towards the lottery. He's a guy that is a plus offensively and at least passable on defense. There's a lot of value there for a variety of NBA teams. Tre Jones may never be a starting PG in the NBA, but he's got great value and is answering questions about his shooting. Hurt has slipped a little, but his shooting and basketball IQ at 6'9" leaves a lot to like in the modern NBA. I could see him shooting up the draft board during conference play. Stanley wasn't on draft boards over the summer and is starting to show up. He's a big guard with elite athleticism and a pretty good looking shot. Honestly, I wonder if he will move to late 1st/early 2nd round if he comes back healthy in about a month.

    Moore has a lot of skills but appears to lack any kind of NBA skillset at the moment. The frame is good. The length is excellent as a multi-positional defender. The handles are pretty good. He has shown flashes of being a very good passer when he isn't turning the ball over. But he lacks the quickness and explosion to get to the rim at the moment. Honestly, I think he's going to be an excellent college player soon, either at the end of this year or next. I sort of hope it is next year as he's a very good player and he screams "sophomore leap" all over him, to my eyes at least.
    Carey will get drafted in the first round but Tre is still a question mark. I agree that everyone else is currently a second rounder or undrafted. But if this group makes a FF run- all bets are off.

  20. #20
    scottdude8's Avatar
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    Stanley will be an interesting case. We forget that heís an older freshman (heís already 20), which weíve seen in the past can influence decisions. Now the injury is also a factor. But if he comes back strong, it wouldnít shock me if he looks into his NBA stock closely, even if itís looking like he isnít a first rounder.

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