Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[JasonEvans]

I, for one, don't see it at all as a done deal that the Warriors will trade the pick. One reason is what CrazyNotCrazy said: with there being no clear-cut No. 2 pick, is there going to be a team that views that as a huge asset, or valuable enough of one for the Warriors to get what they want out of it?

Something else to keep in mind that I think is overlooked: the salary cap. Valuable rookies tend to outperform their cap hit, and the NBA's rules are such that you can go over the cap to resign you're own rookies in many situations where you couldn't do so to get a free agent. If I was the Warriors, who have huge money tied up into 3 (maybe 4 if you think they're going to keep Wiggins) players, I'd see the No. 2 pick as a way to get a significant piece for the next 4-5 years that will cost less than a similar caliber veteran role player.

One more thing to consider: while Edwards and Ball wouldn't fill a need for the Warriors, who are obviously talented on the perimeter, Wiseman would, since they don't have a top-tier center on the team. Even if Wiseman isn't a star, but just a solid NBA center, he improves their starting lineup (Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman could be scary).

I'm with Scott here. The Warriors want to win more rings, but they also want to be like the Spurs and have a title contender for decades. Steph is 32. Dray is 30, and Klay is 30. I think the Warriors would love to get a player who can step in as those guys hit their mid-30s to keep the team in contention.

-Jason "given how much the Warriors value shooting, I think Ball would be a poor fit for them. I think they would prefer Edwards or Wiseman (or Toppin?)" Evans

[tommy]

Age does factor in here. As does defense, where Vassell is a stud. As does the fact that Vassell is a lot longer and perhaps even taller as well. That, and the more advanced metrics all lean heavily towards Vassell. He doubled Stanley in BPM, and comfortably bested him in PER and win shares per 40 minutes.

That's true, and while I love Cassius for sure having watched him for many years -- and he's a GREAT kid -- the big thing is that he didn't show anything off the bounce for us. He was almost all catch-and-shoot. Nothing creating off the dribble, and not much finishing in traffic either. And truth be told, he proved to be an above-average shooter, but not a true plus shooter, and the same goes for his defense. He can improve a lot of that, and his athleticism will give him a chance, but he's not in Vassell's league right now as a prospect.

[awhom111]

Here is the latest update on early entry candidates:
https://www.nba.com/article/2020/08/...ficial-release

There are rumors that the NBA will push back the draft as they try to determine the best time to start the next season from a financial perspective. I am going to be critical about that approach again as it leaves a lot of players in limbo, especially since there seems to have been no information about impacts on the G League and whether they will have a full season or at least a full salary. Players who are more in the fringe prospect range have really had to think about tough decisions about trying to at least make it to training camp versus trying the overseas route immediately.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Vernon Carey has been working since the season ended. The National Freshman of the Year and All-American has dropped close to 30 pounds ahead of the NBA Draft.

[Billy Dat]

Good article by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks about the difference between Duke and Kentucky draft prospects in the One-and-Done era and how to evaluate kids based on the K vs Cal approach to program management.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1...ntucky-players

[sagegrouse]

Good article by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks about the difference between Duke and Kentucky draft prospects in the One-and-Done era and how to evaluate kids based on the K vs Cal approach to program management.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1...ntucky-players

Four word summary -- "Duke because more minutes."

[DukieTiger]

Good article by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks about the difference between Duke and Kentucky draft prospects in the One-and-Done era and how to evaluate kids based on the K vs Cal approach to program management.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1...ntucky-players

Super interesting article, though I question how much homeboy watches college if he thinks Austin Rivers didn't have the ball in his hands during his time at Duke.

I think I buy some of what he's selling, except that it felt like he commended the "spread it around" mentality at the expense of the star-oriented approach K takes.

K gets plenty of role guys and secondary stars drafted, and gets even more guys at least an NBA shot. Marshall Plumlee, anyone?? Quinn Cook?? Duke's star-heavy approach didn't hurt them too much (Narrator: It actually helped them). If you're telling me there's been 1 or 2 grumbling parties (who still got drafted in the lottery ) in 10 years of OAD era at this point, I'd say that's pretty good. But please don't try to imply that there's something inherent about the guys Duke recruits that makes them unwilling to play in a team concept, while these Kentucky recruits are so selfless. You're willfully looking certain Kentucky guys who... aren't the best teammates... Also, um - you know who Cal desperately recruited? Definitely every single one of Duke's most "selfish" players.

And I'd love to hear him flesh out his reasoning that being the featured player on a team allows that player's weaknesses to be hidden, more so than a player who is on a team that spreads it around a bit more. That seems... counter-intuitive to me. Feels like he's blaming each system (Cal's system hiding SGA's talent, K's system hiding Jah's weaknesses) for poor scouting. Plenty of scouts were high on SGA and low(er) on Okafor.

[awhom111]

The final early entry list is up:
https://www.nba.com/news/23-early-en...-by-state-farm

[Billy Dat]

GO TRE GO!!!!!!!!!

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
Here's Duke's Tre Jones going an impressive 18/20 in the 3-point Star Drill. Jones also conducted a simulated NBA Combine in Santa Barbara, where
@P3sportscience says he "put together one of the more complete performances that P3 has ever collected in basketball."

@DraftExpress
"Tre set facility records in the 5y Slide (a test of lateral change of direction ability). His Drop Jump displacement (35”) ranks in the top 5 P3 has ever collected, possessing elite movement in both the vertical and lateral planes." Jones also tested a 40 inch max vertical leap.

[flyingdutchdevil]

GO TRE GO!!!!!!!!!

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
Here's Duke's Tre Jones going an impressive 18/20 in the 3-point Star Drill. Jones also conducted a simulated NBA Combine in Santa Barbara, where
@P3sportscience says he "put together one of the more complete performances that P3 has ever collected in basketball."

@DraftExpress
"Tre set facility records in the 5y Slide (a test of lateral change of direction ability). His Drop Jump displacement (35”) ranks in the top 5 P3 has ever collected, possessing elite movement in both the vertical and lateral planes." Jones also tested a 40 inch max vertical leap.

Is this the right Tre? You sure the vertical isn't Tre Duval?

If not, holy moly. Jones's weaknesses were a) shooting and b) athleticism. If those are now strengths (or at least no longer weaknesses), this kid has to be a 1st rounder.

[jv001]

Is this the right Tre? You sure the vertical isn't Tre Duval?

If not, holy moly. Jones's weaknesses were a) shooting and b) athleticism. If those are now strengths (or at least no longer weaknesses), this kid has to be a 1st rounder.

I would believe the Tre Jones vertical over Tre Duval hitting 18-20 three pointers.

GoDuke!

[jimsumner]

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...uke-basketball

For those of you who don't look at the home page.

[-jk]

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...uke-basketball

For those of you who don't look at the home page.

Thanks, Jim!

-jk

[budwom]

Vern has (finally) found his way onto several first round lists, after been viciously undervalued for a few months by many.

A good team is going to get him late in the first round.

[dukelifer]

GO TRE GO!!!!!!!!!

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
Here's Duke's Tre Jones going an impressive 18/20 in the 3-point Star Drill. Jones also conducted a simulated NBA Combine in Santa Barbara, where
@P3sportscience says he "put together one of the more complete performances that P3 has ever collected in basketball."

@DraftExpress
"Tre set facility records in the 5y Slide (a test of lateral change of direction ability). His Drop Jump displacement (35”) ranks in the top 5 P3 has ever collected, possessing elite movement in both the vertical and lateral planes." Jones also tested a 40 inch max vertical leap.

Wait was Tre Jones holding back? I have never heard of anyone getting better after they were 19. Very strange.

[SouthernDukie]

ABC/ESPN Mock Draft Special did not include one Dukie in their first round projections. That has to be the first in quite some time, no?

[Bluedog]

ABC/ESPN Mock Draft Special did not include one Dukie in their first round projections. That has to be the first in quite some time, no?

I believe we've had a top 3 pick six years in a row. Pretty remarkable.

2010 draft was last year without first rounder although Elliot Williams was (transfer to Memphis).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Seth Davis, writing for The Athletic, had a long article on 50 prospects that combines the feedback from multiple scouts into one take. He calls this amalgam "Finch" as if he is one scout. I like these write-ups as it gives freedom for scouts to say what they want knowing they can be anonymous even if they only contribute one sentence about a player. In this pre-draft write-up, "Finch" gave some fairly typical takes about the Duke prospects with a few standout lines that I will summarize below. I'd post the whole quote, but The Athletic is a subscription site.

Vernon Carey, Jr.
Questions about his weight, his ability to defend in space and shoot, and whether he can get away with bullying people down low like he did at Duke. Still, the production in college was undeniable. One scout thinks he'll go in the 20's.

Tre Jones
He's a proven player, perhaps a 3rd guard more than a backup PG, although there remain questions about his shot. Coach K had him dominate the ball because that's what the team needed. He has proven people wrong everywhere he's been.

Cassius Stanley
We know about the athleticism. He's a future Dunk Contest winner. He's being overlooked a little bit right now and could go late 1st/early 2nd round. He's a future 3-and-D if he continues to work on his defense. The shot and ball-handling skills need to improve.

All told, these are fairly solid write-ups of the three Duke players likely to get drafted. It's not out of the realm of possibility that all three could get drafted by the early 2nd round and there's even a slim chance all go in the 1st round. It's easy to see the roles that Jones and Stanley could play in the NBA. With Carey, I think it's a simple thing: if he can defend in space, he's going to have a role in the NBA for a long time. The commitment to dropping weight gives me hope that he will do that. I am not sure that any will go in the first round, but I feel pretty good about all 3 getting drafted and having a shot at making a career of it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I believe we've had a top 3 pick six years in a row. Pretty remarkable.

2010 draft was last year without first rounder although Elliot Williams was (transfer to Memphis).

Remarkable indeed. I think we'll have at least 1 first rounder. All of the 3 Dukies are flawed in some manner (Vernon too old school, Tre isn't a good shooter, Cassius is fairly one-dimensional), but I can see successful, development-based franchises (like the Heat, Raptors, Nuggets, Celtics) taking a chance on any of these players as they have the opportunity to be really good role players in the NBA. None has "star" or "franchise player" written on them, and that's okay.

I have no idea which player will go in the first round, but I'm confident at least one will.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Tre Jones
He's a proven player, perhaps a 3rd guard more than a backup PG, although there remain questions about his shot. Coach K had him dominate the ball because that's what the team needed. He has proven people wrong everywhere he's been.

That's an odd statement. Where's he been besides Duke? Were lots of people not expecting him to be great at Duke? (I'm sure a couple folks had doubts, but he's implying it was universal.)