US Soccer/2019 Gold Cup/Road to Qatar 2022

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Davies has been a star for Bayern Munich, and David a star for Lille. Those guys are top tier talents in Europe and have been known for a couple of years now (in Davies' case, for 3-4 years). Buchanan is just making his way to Europe this year, but he's a rising star as well.

The good news (for us, not for Canada and Davies) is that Davies is out with injury. Without him marauding down the left flanks as their left back, the Canadian lineup is a fair bit less dynamic.

As the Mexican fans are famous for throwing yellow 'Zip lock bags', should we expect yellow "snowballs' from the Canadians?

[JasonEvans]

While this is true, we of course would hope for the 1 seed to avoid other giants in early rounds in Qatar. Wth a 1 seed, and a high FIFA ranking, we could hope for a best scenario of getting paired as the highest seed in a group with weaker opponents, then playing a group #2 in the first elimination round. and really, if it were not for 2018, we should have had that as a goal.

While the specific standings in CONCACAF will not determine who gets placed in which pot, you are correct to note that doing well in these qualifying matches will help our FIFA ranking which will help us get into a better pot for the draw. Right now, the US is 11th in the FIFA world rankings (Mexico is 14, Canada is surprisingly low at #40). As host, Qatar will go in the top seed pot even though they are ranked #48th in the world. There will be a 12.5% chance we will end up in Qatar's group, which would be the best result we could hope for.

But, the main point is that it would be key for the US to stay in the top 15 in the FIFA ranking, thereby assuring that we will be in the one of the top 2 pots, making us a favorite to reach the knock-out stage. I think rising up to be in the top 7 in the rankings, thereby getting into the top seed pot, is a bit of a reach for Team USA at this time.

-Jason "I believe they use the FIFA rankings to determine the pots... right?" Evans

[BigWayne]

While the specific standings in CONCACAF will not determine who gets placed in which pot, you are correct to note that doing well in these qualifying matches will help our FIFA ranking which will help us get into a better pot for the draw. Right now, the US is 11th in the FIFA world rankings (Mexico is 14, Canada is surprisingly low at #40). As host, Qatar will go in the top seed pot even though they are ranked #48th in the world. There will be a 12.5% chance we will end up in Qatar's group, which would be the best result we could hope for.

But, the main point is that it would be key for the US to stay in the top 15 in the FIFA ranking, thereby assuring that we will be in the one of the top 2 pots, making us a favorite to reach the knock-out stage. I think rising up to be in the top 7 in the rankings, thereby getting into the top seed pot, is a bit of a reach for Team USA at this time.

-Jason "I believe they use the FIFA rankings to determine the pots... right?" Evans

In 2018 they switched to using the FIFA rankings for all four pots. Prior to that it was only the top 7 for the first pot and then "logistical and geographical reasoning" for the other pots. So yes, winning games and staying in the top 15 is a valuable thing to do.

[Skydog]

Are we really the 11th best team in the world?
A smidge better than Germany?
Better than all SA teams except Brazil and Argentina?

Genuine question. It is hard for me to believe but that’s what FIFA rankings say. I know FIFA rankings are suspect but I know they improved their ranking algorithms about a decade or so ago.
What do you guys/gals think?

[OldPhiKap]

Are we really the 11th best team in the world?
A smidge better than Germany?
Better than all SA teams except Brazil and Argentina?

Genuine question. It is hard for me to believe but that’s what FIFA rankings say. I know FIFA rankings are suspect but I know they improved their ranking algorithms about a decade or so ago.
What do you guys/gals think?

I’m skeptical.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are we really the 11th best team in the world?
A smidge better than Germany?
Better than all SA teams except Brazil and Argentina?

Genuine question. It is hard for me to believe but that’s what FIFA rankings say. I know FIFA rankings are suspect but I know they improved their ranking algorithms about a decade or so ago.
What do you guys/gals think?

Sounds incredibly lofty to me.

[burnspbesq]

Sounds incredibly lofty to me.

When they’re all fully healthy and in form, who else’s midfield would you take over Adams/Musah/McKennie/Pulisic? I can only think of about six (Belgium, France, Spain, England, Brazil, Argentina).

[CDu]

When they’re all fully healthy and in form, who else’s midfield would you take over Adams/Musah/McKennie/Pulisic? I can only think of about six (Belgium, France, Spain, England, Brazil, Argentina).

I would take Italy’s midfield over almost all of those listed, and certainly over the US midfield. Also would add Germany and the Netherlands to the list. And that is just off the top of my head.

That being said, midfield isn’t but one area of the field.

Worth pointing out that Pulisic isn’t a midfielder.

[75Crazie]

I don't keep up well with the record of the European national teams, but ... what the heck has happened to Germany, that they're ranked below the US? They have been a powerhouse and I thought their youth program was second to none.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

I don't keep up well with the record of the European national teams, but ... what the heck has happened to Germany, that they're ranked below the US? They have been a powerhouse and I thought their youth program was second to none.

I agree that the US is not the 11th best team in the world, but we had just a few wins this summer, so I'll take it. Some of the other teams have generational changes going on, and used the Nations Leagues crammed in the international windows to try younger teams. Spain's team looked babyfaced. Our best hope is the use the ranking, even if it is inflated, to avoid these types of teams until the last rounds possible. We are super young as well, and still to put together a front three, even with Pulisic. Our game against Canada will be tough without Weah- COVID regulations. He did not get the number of vaccines Canada demands because he had a positive test, and satisfied French regulations.
Now the 2026 US team...

[Skydog]

If we look at the actual FIFA numerical ratings (not the rankings) they paint a clearer picture. There is a clear top 7, then our group of 7 and then the stragglers. Seem pretty realistic, with a couple exceptions (see Canada).

First Seven, First Class
1830 pts, 1st-2nd: Belgium and Brazil. Almost indistinguishable. After that the team tend to fall in 40-50 point increments:
1790, 3rd: France
1750, 4th-6th: England, Argentina and Italy
1700, 7th: Spain

Second Seven, Business Class
This is a closely bunched group rated 1640-1660, including the US. Difference w/i group are very small, so us being 11th and Germany 12th means absolutely nothing except we are in the middle of the 2nd pack.
1650, 8th-14th: Portugal, Denmark, Netherlands, USA, Germany, Switzerland, Mexico. (Fine-grained: 1660 Portugal, 1650 Denmark & Netherlands, 1650 USA and Germany, 1640 Switzerland & Mexico)

Third Seven, Coach
Smooth drop off from 1620-1560, in 10 point increments.
1620, 15th: Croatia
1610, 16th: Colombia
1600, 17th: Uruguay
1590, 18th: Sweden
1580, 19th: Wales
1560, 20th-21st: Senegal, Iran

No Chancers (but see very relevant, possible mis-classification):
1550-1500, 22nd-33rd: Peru, Serbia, Chile, Ukraine, Japan, Poland, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Austria, Czech, Korea.
1490-1450, 34th48th: Australia, Nigeria, Turkey, Scotland, Hungary, Canada (1460??!), Norway, Slovakia, Paraguay, Romania, Ecuador, Ireland, Qatar.

I don't which of these teams have been eliminated already. I do know some but maybe someone wants to modify this, pulling out the eliminated.

[jimsumner]

I don't follow this stuff has closely as the experts on this board. But if Belgium--population 11.6 million--is as good as Brazil, that's pretty darned impressive.

[Skydog]

(Reposting for readability on mobile.)

First Seven, “First Class”
1830 pts, 1st-2nd: Belgium, Brazil
1790, 3rd: France
1750, 4th-6th: England, Argentina, Italy
1700, 7th: Spain

Second Seven, “Business Class”
1660, 8th: Portugal
1650 9th-10th: Denmark, Netherlands
1650 11th-12th: USA, Germany
1640 13th-14th:Switzerland, Mexico

Third Seven, “Coach”
1620, 15th: Croatia
1610, 16th: Colombia
1600, 17th: Uruguay
1590, 18th: Sweden
1580, 19th: Wales
1560, 20th-21st: Senegal, Iran

“Spirit Airlines”
1550-1500, 22nd-33rd:
Peru, Serbia, Chile, Ukraine, Japan, Poland, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Austria, Czech, Korea.

“Stowaways”
1490-1450, 34th-48th:
Australia, Nigeria, Turkey, Scotland, Hungary, Canada (1460?), Norway, Slovakia, Paraguay, Romania, Ecuador, Ireland, Qatar.

[wilson]

I don't follow this stuff has closely as the experts on this board. But if Belgium--population 11.6 million--is as good as Brazil, that's pretty darned impressive.

In the last 5 years or so, I think most would say that Belgium’s national team has been better than Brazil’s, though snakebit at major tournaments.
There are a host of political and historical wrinkles involved here, though; top-level European sides are generally much more diverse and inclusive than the societies they purport to represent…

[FUBARDoorBuster]

(Reposting for readability on mobile.)

First Seven, “First Class”
1830 pts, 1st-2nd: Belgium, Brazil
1790, 3rd: France
1750, 4th-6th: England, Argentina, Italy
1700, 7th: Spain

Second Seven, “Business Class”
1660, 8th: Portugal
1650 9th-10th: Denmark, Netherlands
1650 11th-12th: USA, Germany
1640 13th-14th:Switzerland, Mexico

Third Seven, “Coach”
1620, 15th: Croatia
1610, 16th: Colombia
1600, 17th: Uruguay
1590, 18th: Sweden
1580, 19th: Wales
1560, 20th-21st: Senegal, Iran

“Spirit Airlines”
1550-1500, 22nd-33rd:
Peru, Serbia, Chile, Ukraine, Japan, Poland, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Austria, Czech, Korea.

“Stowaways”
1490-1450, 34th-48th:
Australia, Nigeria, Turkey, Scotland, Hungary, Canada (1460?), Norway, Slovakia, Paraguay, Romania, Ecuador, Ireland, Qatar.

I love the association that you make with flight/airline class . Hilarious. I love the USMNT, and have followed since the first time we qualified in 1990 Italia. Can't wait for our time to get to a final. But realistically, I doubt we win a competitive match at this point in our growth against Switzerland (golden generation) , Portugal, Croatia( yes, generational transition) Czech, Poland, Uruguay. Maybe by 2026. It's great that we have so many players in Europe, but the geographical divide in our team limits the chances to coalesce together.
Watching today in the cold against Canada, if the teams can arrive due to the trucking protest.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

It's a shame that this fairly big game is at the same time as the NFL playoffs. As well as the Duke women's game. As well as my son's middle school basketball game. It would have been great if the soccer game was at 1.

[Skydog]

It's a shame that this fairly big game is at the same time as the NFL playoffs. As well as the Duke women's game. As well as my son's middle school basketball game. It would have been great if the soccer game was at 1.

You should send your sons sports schedule to Concacaf - maybe they can schedule around any conflict in the future?

[OldPhiKap]

It's a shame that this fairly big game is at the same time as the NFL playoffs. As well as the Duke women's game. As well as my son's middle school basketball game. It would have been great if the soccer game was at 1.

You should send your sons sports schedule to Concacaf - maybe they can schedule around any conflict in the future?

And here, it’s only on Univision or some such. En Español.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

So this seems like 1986 World Cup, having to watch the games in Spanish. We watched on a big dish that some family had in our neighborhood. Currently, I have FUBO and ESPN+, but I can only find the US-Canada game on Telemundo. I guess it is on Paramount, or some other service. Yes we get more international games than any other country and we peaked around 2017 for games included in mid-tier "cable services" but now a la carte plans are killing me.

Seriously, what does USMNT earn by selling Away games rights separately to CBS, only to have them not broadcast, either OTA or cable tier channels.

[OldPhiKap]

So this seems like 1986 World Cup, having to watch the games in Spanish. We watched on a big dish that some family had in our neighborhood. Currently, I have FUBO and ESPN+, but I can only find the US-Canada game on Telemundo. I guess it is on Paramount, or some other service. Yes we get more international games than any other country and we peaked around 2017 for games included in mid-tier "cable services" but now a la carte plans are killing me.

And it’s a big problem with MLS, too. You have to hunt for the matches, and sometimes it is only on Spanish-speaking channels.

If you want to sell a product, you have to make it readily accessible. I know what channels my local baseball, football, and basketball games will be available. I have no idea about my local MLS team.

Hell, EPL is easier to locate.