Dukies in the NBA 2019-20

[SouthernDukie]

If Rodney wants to never work again and lead a decent life, that option is certainly available to him. I hope he will be able to rehab and get back to the league, but if not I suspect he will find something else to take up his time.

There's no doubt that most of the former Duke players that have been in the league for a few years can retire if injury strikes and still live great, great lives. They can do almost anything they want if they've managed their money correctly.

But it's still a bummer because these young men surely have real aspirations about making a mark in the league beyond collecting a paycheck. They are competitive, and I'm sure they want to have solid careers. Injuries hamper that aspect of their career. And it has to sting terribly. If I feel horrible about it, I can't imagine how they feel - money in the bank or not.

Go Duke! Go all NBA Dukies!!!

[nmduke2001]

Well, it is worth noting that between agents, managers, and the government, he probably only put about $10 million of that salary into the bank. Also, who knows what his spending has been like thus far -- seeing as he likely anticipated a long, lucrative career in which he would earn another $50+ million he may not have been very careful.

That said, he certainly now knows his career may have taken a serious downturn and the $11 mil he is getting this year and next could be close to the end of the gravy train. But, if he even manages to put $5 million away he should be able to expect something in the range of $200-$250k in income annually without taking too many investment risks. He also should get a lucrative (over $100k per year) NBA pension once he hits his 60s.

If Rodney wants to never work again and lead a decent life, that option is certainly available to him. I hope he will be able to rehab and get back to the league, but if not I suspect he will find something else to take up his time.

Sure $11 million is A LOT of money but it’s not quite as much as you might think. The $11 million was pre-tax and pre agent fee. Portland has a max state tax rate of 9%. $11 million would put him at the 37% marginal fed rate for all but $600k since he is married (so let’s just overestimate and say he’s at 37% effective rate for all of it). Total tax due is approximately $5,060,000 ($11,000,000 *46%). That leaves him $5,940,000. Let’s say his agent is generous and only took $440k. That leaves Rodney with $5,500,000. Rodney is 27 years old. Let’s use a huge generalization and say that he should only take 3% annually because he potentially has 60+ years to make this money work for him. That works out to $165,000/year. If he invests it prudently, you could expect that the 3% withdrawal rate will not deplete the principal and that the principal will grow at a rate greater than 3% thus allowing Rodney to increase his yearly withdrawal because he is taking 3% of a bigger pie. In theory, this works just fine, but google “sequence of return risk”. If Rodney faces a few early bad years in the market, he’s quickly in bad shape. Also, we didn’t even discuss the tax on the $165k/year. It could be 15% capital gains or a higher income rate depending on how it is invested.

$11 million is a ton of money, but absent any other type of income to safely make it last a lifetime, Rodney might have to live an upper middle-class lifestyle. Just for fun, I ran a monte carlo analysis on a 28 year old with $5,500,000 taking $165k/year after tax and inflation with an allocation of 66% equities, 17% FI and 17% alternatives. They failed to reach age 90 with any money in 25% of the projections. However, in 75% of the scenarios he was fine and with taking $165k/year in over 50% of the scenarios he reached age 90 with over $31 million.

[Indoor66]

Sure $11 million is A LOT of money but it’s not quite as much as you might think. The $11 million was pre-tax and pre agent fee. Portland has a max state tax rate of 9%. $11 million would put him at the 37% marginal fed rate for all but $600k since he is married (so let’s just overestimate and say he’s at 37% effective rate for all of it). Total tax due is approximately $5,060,000 ($11,000,000 *46%). That leaves him $5,940,000. Let’s say his agent is generous and only took $440k. That leaves Rodney with $5,500,000. Rodney is 27 years old. Let’s use a huge generalization and say that he should only take 3% annually because he potentially has 60+ years to make this money work for him. That works out to $165,000/year. If he invests it prudently, you could expect that the 3% withdrawal rate will not deplete the principal and that the principal will grow at a rate greater than 3% thus allowing Rodney to increase his yearly withdrawal because he is taking 3% of a bigger pie. In theory, this works just fine, but google “sequence of return risk”. If Rodney faces a few early bad years in the market, he’s quickly in bad shape. Also, we didn’t even discuss the tax on the $165k/year. It could be 15% capital gains or a higher income rate depending on how it is invested.

$11 million is a ton of money, but absent any other type of income to safely make it last a lifetime, Rodney might have to live an upper middle-class lifestyle. Just for fun, I ran a monte carlo analysis on a 28 year old with $5,500,000 taking $165k/year after tax and inflation with an allocation of 66% equities, 17% FI and 17% alternatives. They failed to reach age 90 with any money in 25% of the projections. However, in 75% of the scenarios he was fine and with taking $165k/year in over 50% of the scenarios he reached age 90 with over $31 million.

Wow. What a thrill. Die with 3 times what you started with. I understand being conservative, but that is pretty much self depriving.

[camion]

Wrong thread. Never mind.

[Hartford Dukie]

The $11 million was pre-tax and pre agent fee. Portland has a max state tax rate of 9%.

As noted above, through his Blazers contract (including contracts covering 5 years with Jazz and Cleveland) Rodney will have earned $21.5 million - so the figure of $11 million Jason is using was the amount after taxes, agent fees, etc all taken out.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland...ey-hood-15375/

[bundabergdevil]

In case anyone is looking for last minute ideas on what to get me for Christmas ---- this Zion Williamson card will do just fine!

[subzero02]

RJ just stepped to the line with a 2 point and under 10 seconds left in the game in San Fran. He is shooting under 54% from the line this year and I honestly expected him to miss them both. We will see if his miss allows GSW to force OT in this clash of the titans

[MartyClark]

JJ with 31 in yet another loss for New Orleans.

[yancem]

Reddish with another solid outing; 16 pts and 5 rbs. Not the best shooting percentage, going 4-11 but he was 3-9 from deep which is an improvement. Hopefully, the past couple of games is a sign that he's figuring things out.

[Dsuke17]

Wow, Seth is killing it in Mexco City!!
23pt, 9-11 FG, 5-7 from 3 in only 15 minutes of action in the first half.
Almost his brother-like explosion! love it!

[BD80]

Wow, Seth is killing it in Mexco City!!
...

Probably not the best choice of words ...

[heyman25]

Duke Alums Nick Arison and Shane Battier find a Diamond in the Rough. Duncan Robinson story blew my mind. WSJ article might not open. Williams College grad and a 1 year transfer at michigan. 3rd best shooting % in the NBA.https://www.wsj.com/articles/duncan-...=hp_listc_pos2

Nick Arison resume is fantastic.https://www.nba.com/heat/contact/directorynarisonhtml

[brevity]

Duke Alums Nick Arison and Shane Battier find a Diamond in the Rough. Duncan Robinson story blew my mind. WSJ article might not open. Williams College grad and a 1 year transfer at michigan. 3rd best shooting % in the NBA.https://www.wsj.com/articles/duncan-...=hp_listc_pos2

Nick Arison resume is fantastic.https://www.nba.com/heat/contact/directorynarisonhtml

Shut it down, San Antonio. If you can’t sign an undrafted free agent with the name Duncan Robinson, you don’t deserve to stay in the business of pro basketball.

[MartyClark]

Wow, Seth is killing it in Mexco City!!
23pt, 9-11 FG, 5-7 from 3 in only 15 minutes of action in the first half.
Almost his brother-like explosion! love it!

Seth ends up with 30. It's great to see this guy doing well.

[robed deity]

Is it too early to worry about Cam Reddish? I mean it's been a year in college and over a quarter through the NBA season. To be a 3 and D guy, he really needs to get those percentages up.

[kAzE]

Is it too early to worry about Cam Reddish? I mean it's been a year in college and over a quarter through the NBA season. To be a 3 and D guy, he really needs to get those percentages up.

Too early, let's see what happens if he puts on about 15 more pounds of muscle in the next few years.

[Steven43]

Is it too early to worry about Cam Reddish? I mean it's been a year in college and over a quarter through the NBA season. To be a 3 and D guy, he really needs to get those percentages up.

Hasn’t Reddish been doing better recently? I thought he had, but I haven’t analyzed the data (though simply looking at stats only tells so much) or heard discussion by his coaches, teammates or opponents as to how he has been doing the past couple of weeks.

[CDu]

Is it too early to worry about Cam Reddish? I mean it's been a year in college and over a quarter through the NBA season. To be a 3 and D guy, he really needs to get those percentages up.

I feel that the "3 and D" label isn't appropriate for Reddish. I don't think he's ever really been a great pure shooter (capable, but not great). His game was more of an all-around game: good at a variety of things but perhaps not superlative at any one thing.

Unfortunately, he had a rough year at Duke, and that was on the heels of a rough showing at the Hoops Summit (scouts were questioning him even then). So, yeah, I think there is room for concern. Because while he appears to have the physical tools (length and athleticism ideal for his position), it still remains to be seen what he does well with or without the ball. Dribble is too high and loose to be effective off the dribble; not strong enough to play through contact; not a good enough pure shooter to be a catch-and-shoot guy.

He's young, and can certainly get stronger. If his body strength improves and he can tighten up the handle, he could develop into a DeRozan type of player. If not, well, hopefully he learns to really knock down the 3.

[arnie]

I feel that the "3 and D" label isn't appropriate for Reddish. I don't think he's ever really been a great pure shooter (capable, but not great). His game was more of an all-around game: good at a variety of things but perhaps not superlative at any one thing.

Unfortunately, he had a rough year at Duke, and that was on the heels of a rough showing at the Hoops Summit (scouts were questioning him even then). So, yeah, I think there is room for concern. Because while he appears to have the physical tools (length and athleticism ideal for his position), it still remains to be seen what he does well with or without the ball. Dribble is too high and loose to be effective off the dribble; not strong enough to play through contact; not a good enough pure shooter to be a catch-and-shoot guy.

He's young, and can certainly get stronger. If his body strength improves and he can tighten up the handle, he could develop into a DeRozan type of player. If not, well, hopefully he learns to really knock down the 3.

And if he doesn’t knock down the three he still makes 4+ mill a year for awhile. Not a bad life for a 20-year old. I do wonder if the guaranteed money is demotivating for some- I’ll never know.

[CDu]

Hasn’t Reddish been doing better recently? I thought he had, but I haven’t analyzed the data (though simply looking at stats only tells so much) or heard discussion by his coaches, teammates or opponents as to how he has been doing the past couple of weeks.

He's been up and down. He had a few good games in November, then cooled off. Then had a career night against Brooklyn, then a clunker, then had a nice game against Miami, then a "meh" game.

His month-by-month stats are definitely trending upward, but some of that may be small sample sizes for October and December (so far). If he can replicate his December stats moving forward (13.6 ppg, 39.3 3pt%), things look good. but it may also be that he's just a highly volatile shooter and we haven't had a significant down stretch in December yet.