Dukies in the NBA 2019-20

[JayZee]

Based on watching Zion so far, I think:

1. He still has not been fully in shape in the NBA, and he's farther away now than he was before. He's even a bit pudgy now. The 2 weeks of inactivity definitely hurt, but his body clearly can put on weight easily. In terms of losing fitness quickly, marathoners commonly taper very markedly for 2-3 weeks before a race to balance peak fitness and freshness. I've been surprised at how quickly Zion lost fitness, if the reports of his conditioning just before he left the bubble were accurate. I also don't recall his losing fitness that quickly when he was out with us.

2. Having said that, it's stunning how efficient he has been this year at less than 100% conditioning, wanting to attack the basket to the left every time, and opponents playing well off of him and trying to stop that. Wow.

3. I can't wait to see the full Zion in the NBA. Besides the conditioning and learning curve, I've read that the team has instructed him to pick his spots on defense so far. Everyone remembers the 3-pointer block against VA, but I also remember Ky Bowman, a very athletic guard even at the NBA level, getting Zion is iso, showcasing a series of moves, and Zion still blocking his jump shot. We also still haven't seen all of his playmaking yet, though he did have 5 assists last night.

4. We should have used him down low even more last year. The best defenders in the NBA have difficulty stopping him, even when they know exactly what's coming. Zion bully ball should have been options 1, 2, and 3, even with other capable scorers. Of course, if you could have combined that with one more year of Trent sharpshooting or Cam shooting like he did in the last month or so of his NBA season.

He certainly is getting winded, but I don't think he looks particularly pudgy. If anything, he added weight to his shoulders. He is just enormous.

I think the biggest difference to me is that he just doesn't look like he's having a ton of fun. I just hope that it's just game related (minutes, conditioning, bubble) and not the previously mentioned family matter than is weighing on him.

[ice-9]

Phoenix rising -- they just beat the Clippers. Their remaining schedule is probably the second easiest so the Suns can finish strong and easily make #8 or #9.

3 teams now at 29 wins + Blazers at 30 + Kings at 28.

[duke96]

ESPN(+, so I guess I can’t paste) scenario modeling projects the following odds of making the playoffs. This reflects the Jaren Jackson injury. (Assume there must be some rounding)

Grizzlies 41%
Pelicans 36%
Blazers 15%
Spurs 3%
Suns 2%
Kings 2%

So, Pelicans right in there with the Grizzlies. Big falloff from there. Zion performance relative to Ja down the stretch will be fun to observe.

[SouthernDukie]

ESPN(+, so I guess I can’t paste) scenario modeling projects the following odds of making the playoffs. This reflects the Jaren Jackson injury. (Assume there must be some rounding)

Grizzlies 41%
Pelicans 36%
Blazers 15%
Spurs 3%
Suns 2%
Kings 2%

So, Pelicans right in there with the Grizzlies. Big falloff from there. Zion performance relative to Ja down the stretch will be fun to observe.

Not sure Portland isn’t a greater threat than those percentages show. But I do believe it’s going to come down to those top 3.

[flyingdutchdevil]

ESPN(+, so I guess I can’t paste) scenario modeling projects the following odds of making the playoffs. This reflects the Jaren Jackson injury. (Assume there must be some rounding)

Grizzlies 41%
Pelicans 36%
Blazers 15%
Spurs 3%
Suns 2%
Kings 2%

So, Pelicans right in there with the Grizzlies. Big falloff from there. Zion performance relative to Ja down the stretch will be fun to observe.

Ouch. I feel terrible for the Grizzlies. They are a very likable team, especially with Ja and JJJ. Not to mention the three Dukies (hopefully 3. Winslow just can't get healthy).

[tbyers11]

ESPN(+, so I guess I can’t paste) scenario modeling projects the following odds of making the playoffs. This reflects the Jaren Jackson injury. (Assume there must be some rounding)

Grizzlies 41%
Pelicans 36%
Blazers 15%
Spurs 3%
Suns 2%
Kings 2%

So, Pelicans right in there with the Grizzlies. Big falloff from there. Zion performance relative to Ja down the stretch will be fun to observe.

538 NBA has the following playoff odds

Blazers 42%
Pelicans 31%
Grizzlies 22%
Suns 2%
Spurs 2%
Kings <1%

That feels more in line with my personal opinion based on team strength and remaining schedule strength. This includes all games to date including Portland's win over Houston last night. I don't think it factors in JJJ being out for Memphis but obviously that would drop their odds.

[Neals384]

Based on watching Zion so far, I think:

1. He still has not been fully in shape in the NBA, and he's farther away now than he was before. He's even a bit pudgy now. The 2 weeks of inactivity definitely hurt, but his body clearly can put on weight easily. In terms of losing fitness quickly, marathoners commonly taper very markedly for 2-3 weeks before a race to balance peak fitness and freshness. I've been surprised at how quickly Zion lost fitness, if the reports of his conditioning just before he left the bubble were accurate. I also don't recall his losing fitness that quickly when he was out with us.

2. Having said that, it's stunning how efficient he has been this year at less than 100% conditioning, wanting to attack the basket to the left every time, and opponents playing well off of him and trying to stop that. Wow.

3. I can't wait to see the full Zion in the NBA. Besides the conditioning and learning curve, I've read that the team has instructed him to pick his spots on defense so far. Everyone remembers the 3-pointer block against VA, but I also remember Ky Bowman, a very athletic guard even at the NBA level, getting Zion is iso, showcasing a series of moves, and Zion still blocking his jump shot. We also still haven't seen all of his playmaking yet, though he did have 5 assists last night.

4. We should have used him down low even more last year. The best defenders in the NBA have difficulty stopping him, even when they know exactly what's coming. Zion bully ball should have been options 1, 2, and 3, even with other capable scorers. Of course, if you could have combined that with one more year of Trent sharpshooting or Cam shooting like he did in the last month or so of his NBA season.

Wait. Was it really last year? Everything pre-COVID seems like it was at least 4-5 years ago.

[SouthernDukie]

538 NBA has the following playoff odds

Blazers 42%
Pelicans 31%
Grizzlies 22%
Suns 2%
Spurs 2%
Kings <1%

That feels more in line with my personal opinion based on team strength and remaining schedule strength. This includes all games to date including Portland's win over Houston last night. I don't think it factors in JJJ being out for Memphis but obviously that would drop their odds.

Mine too. I think the Blazers are actually in the best spot to take 8th, and that the Grizzlies and Pelicans will fight it out for 9th.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Wait. Was it really last year? Everything pre-COVID seems like it was at least 4-5 years ago.

I just refer to it as the BeforeTimes.
We don't talk about the BeforeTimes.

[ice-9]

Not sure Portland isn’t a greater threat than those percentages show. But I do believe it’s going to come down to those top 3.

Completely agree. Blazers are a different team with Nurkic in the lineup, who was recovering from a gruesome injury and just made it back for bubble play. I think it'll be Blazers #8 and #9 between Pelicans and Suns.

The Grizzlies are going to miss Jaren greatly given they weren't a great shooting team even with him. I predict many more losses.

For the Suns I'm assuming Booker is going to continue on his torrid shooting. They beat a Clippers team that demolished the Pelicans.

[Truth&Justise]

Ouch. I feel terrible for the Grizzlies. They are a very likable team, especially with Ja and JJJ. Not to mention the three Dukies (hopefully 3. Winslow just can't get healthy).

Missing the playoffs could be the best thing for the Grizzlies. Obviously the added benefit is more ping-pong balls to help land a higher draft pick. This is the best opportunity for the Grizzlies to add another possible star to their current core--they're ahead of schedule on the rebuild and if they keep marginally improving, they may not have any more opportunities to land a cornerstone player who can put them over the top. Really, this could be an inflection point for the long-term trajectory of the team.

On the other side of the ledger, the normal perks of making the playoffs are absent. The organization won't be getting extra ticket revenue or generating goodwill with fans by hosting packed playoff games. And it's not long this is a long-time losing franchise whose fans are desperate to finally make the playoffs.

If you're most assuredly going to lose to the Lakers in a mostly empty ballroom, and your fans are already thrilled with the progress of the team . . . why not sit this one out and take the better lottery odds?

[budwom]

Pelicans could increase their chances by putting Zion on the court, and Gentry back in the locker room.

[sagegrouse]

Missing the playoffs could be the best thing for the Grizzlies. Obviously the added benefit is more ping-pong balls to help land a higher draft pick. This is the best opportunity for the Grizzlies to add another possible star to their current core--they're ahead of schedule on the rebuild and if they keep marginally improving, they may not have any more opportunities to land a cornerstone player who can put them over the top. Really, this could be an inflection point for the long-term trajectory of the team.

On the other side of the ledger, the normal perks of making the playoffs are absent. The organization won't be getting extra ticket revenue or generating goodwill with fans by hosting packed playoff games. And it's not long this is a long-time losing franchise whose fans are desperate to finally make the playoffs.

If you're most assuredly going to lose to the Lakers in a mostly empty ballroom, and your fans are already thrilled with the progress of the team . . . why not sit this one out and take the better lottery odds?

To me, it's about Grayson Allen. He is getting quite a bit of playing time right now and has some positive results to show for it. I hope he makes a strong case for playing a long time in the NBA.

[elvis14]

To me, it's about Grayson Allen. He is getting quite a bit of playing time right now and has some positive results to show for it. I hope he makes a strong case for playing a long time in the NBA.

Same here, loved watching him drop 5 3's the other night and watching him play against JJ was a blast. Grayson could have a career arc similar to JJ's if he can stay healthy and put in the work.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Same here, loved watching him drop 5 3's the other night and watching him play against JJ was a blast. Grayson could have a career arc similar to JJ's if he can stay healthy and put in the work.

Watching them go toe to toe was fun. Allen held his own better than I might have guessed. JJ is crafty.

[Acymetric]

Anyone else conflicted on pulling for Memphis (Grayson, Tyus) vs. New Orleans (Zion, JJ, Ingram, Jackson, Okafor, Langdon) for the final playoff spot? Obviously New Orleans has the quanitity, and JJ is heading towards the end of his career so I feel like I pull for him by default, but it is hard for me to pull for Grayson/Tyus not​ to make it...two of my recent favorites.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Anyone else conflicted on pulling for Memphis (Grayson, Tyus) vs. New Orleans (Zion, JJ, Ingram, Jackson, Okafor, Langdon) for the final playoff spot? Obviously New Orleans has the quanitity, and JJ is heading towards the end of his career so I feel like I pull for him by default, but it is hard for me to pull for Grayson/Tyus not​ to make it...two of my recent favorites.

Nope. NO all the way for me. JJ is a Duke god, Ingram is arguably a top 3 Duke player in the NBA right now (after Kyrie and Tatum), and then there's Zion: the future of the NBA.

Also, as much as I love Tyus and Winslow, I'm lukewarm on Grayson.

[robed deity]

Another pretty good game from Grayson right now, 5-6 from 3.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Another pretty good game from Grayson right now, 5-6 from 3.

He had a career high today. They lost, but he was in til the end.

[SouthernDukie]

Anyone else conflicted on pulling for Memphis (Grayson, Tyus) vs. New Orleans (Zion, JJ, Ingram, Jackson, Okafor, Langdon) for the final playoff spot? Obviously New Orleans has the quanitity, and JJ is heading towards the end of his career so I feel like I pull for him by default, but it is hard for me to pull for Grayson/Tyus not​ to make it...two of my recent favorites.

No. I do love Grayson, Tyus and Justise (I know he's not playing), but I've got to go with the Pelicans simply because JJ, Ingram and Zion all play meaningful minutes and are stars on the team. It's not even close. Right now my rooting interests in the NBA line up specifically with Duke players and their relative importance on the teams they play for:

1) NO
2) Boston (Tatum)
3) Dallas (Seth)
4) Memphis
5) Houston
6) Sacrameno
7) Denver
8) LA

I think those are the only playoff push teams with Dukies on their active rosters. Let me know if I've missed any.

P.S. We desperately need Denver to lay a "L" on the Spurs today.