2019 NBA Draft discussion

[JasonEvans]

This will be the collector thread for conversation about the draft and trades made prior to/during the draft.

We begin with news that the Nets have traded their 2019 and 2020 first round picks (lottery protected) along with Allen Crabbe to the Hawks for Taurean Prince and a 2020 2nd rounder. This deal is clearly a move by Brooklyn to clear cap space as Crabbe is owed $18.5 mil next season and the Nets want to be in position to get 2 max free agents. This move gets them there. Plus, getting back Prince, who is on the last year of his rookie deal and could be a nice backup wing is a good deal.

All it really costs them is two picks, one of which will be #17 in a middling draft and the other of which is likely to be in the bottom third of the first round in 2020. I like this deal from their standpoint.

That said, this deal is a win for the Hawks too. Crabbe's cap hit is meaningless to Atlanta as they have tons of space and do not expect to be contenders in 2019-20. If Crabbe had 2 years left on his deal, there is no way the Hawks make this deal, but sucking up another bad contract in 2020 doesn't bother them at all (the Bazemore and MiPlumlee contacts are also in their final years in 2020). Prince was ok, a decent player, but certainly not irreplaceable and he is going to get a lot more expensive in 12 months. Don't forget that Prince played 4 years at Baylor before coming into the NBA, meaning any notion that he has potential to grow and get a lot better is pretty much gone at this point. He's already 25 and most of the Hawks starters are going to be less than 20 next year.

-Jason "this is probably a sign that the Hawks are dead-set on taking a SF in the draft (and I suspect they are going to trade up to get the one they want, RJ Barrett)" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Odds that the Hawks keep 3 first and 3 second round picks... zero. They are making a deal.

In my deepest fantasy, they are going to trade all these picks plus the Nets 2020 pick to Nawlins for Zion... not gonna happen but I can dream, can't I?

[cato]

Odds that the Hawks keep 3 first and 3 second round picks... zero. They are making a deal.

In my deepest fantasy, they are going to trade all these picks plus the Nets 2020 pick to Nawlins for Zion... not gonna happen but I can dream, can't I?

Who do you think the most likely actual targets are? RJ. Who else?

[Steven43]

Odds that the Hawks keep 3 first and 3 second round picks... zero. They are making a deal.

In my deepest fantasy, they are going to trade all these picks plus the Nets 2020 pick to Nawlins for Zion... not gonna happen but I can dream, can't I?

I’m with you. Zion to the Hawks would have been sweet. I visit Atlanta fairly often and would have tried to catch as many Hawks games as possible had Zion been on the team. Bummer.

[BD80]

Odds that the Hawks keep 3 first and 3 second round picks... zero. They are making a deal.

In my deepest fantasy, they are going to trade all these picks plus the Nets 2020 pick to Nawlins for Zion... not gonna happen but I can dream, can't I?

That would be a great outcome for Zion!

[JasonEvans]

Ok, serious question...

Would the #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins get you the #1 pick and Zion? I don't think it would but I also think New Orleans would be a little bit crazy to pass on that.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Ok, serious question...

Would the #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins get you the #1 pick and Zion? I don't think it would but I also think New Orleans would be a little bit crazy to pass on that.

Of all of the sports, basketball is by far the one where accumulating a number of picks really isn't that helpful. The roster is so small that you aren't going to fit a number of new guys onto the team. In football, the roster is about 4 times larger so you need a lot more players and to a point, gathering picks is good. So, for example, in this case the marginal value of the 17th pick is really minimal (though I guess you can draft and stash). Getting a potential max salary guy is the key to success in the NBA. I know there are many max salary guys who went later in the draft, but theoretically your odds of getting one are a lot better at the top.

[DukeTrinity11]

Ok, serious question...

Would the #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins get you the #1 pick and Zion? I don't think it would but I also think New Orleans would be a little bit crazy to pass on that.

The Pelicans would probably laugh at that offer. You're not getting a generational superstar like Zion who's probably the most hyped prospect since LeBron for anything less than a superstar.

The Pelicans would hang up the phone even if the Hawks offered #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins AND Trae Young.

[brevity]

Ok, serious question...

Would the #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins get you the #1 pick and Zion? I don't think it would but I also think New Orleans would be a little bit crazy to pass on that.

The Pelicans would probably laugh at that offer. You're not getting a generational superstar like Zion who's probably the most hyped prospect since LeBron for anything less than a superstar.

The Pelicans would hang up the phone even if the Hawks offered #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins AND Trae Young.

From a business standpoint, New Orleans almost can’t trade the #1 pick. That surge of season ticket sales after the lottery was based on the understanding that Zion will be in a Pelicans uniform. Accept no substitutes (though I could be persuaded by, say, New York’s #3 pick and 2-3 of their young players).

Also remember that NOLA does have another superstar on the trading block. Atlanta has a much better chance there.

[scottdude8]

Agree with most everything above. In football a trade like that (3 first rounders for the #1) would be more likely, and analogous things actually have happened in the recent past. But unlike football, basketball is a game where 1 player can take a team from bad to good (the theory in the NFL is that QBs can do that, and indeed most of the trades like this have involved going after a QB, but more often than not having more picks to get a complete team ends up being better in the long run). Zion being a potential generational talent also means that deal is unlikely. But for the #3 pick and RJ? That most definitely could happen if the Knicks aren't sold on him... considering after the Top 3 picks the consensus is the next 10-20 players are very similar caliber (good, not great, prospects) the Knicks might prefer to take 3 shots on getting a contributor rather than going all-in on RJ. I think we all know what RJ brings to the table, so I think that'd be quite a bad move, but it can at least be justified (unlike trading Zion).

[BD80]

Of all of the sports, basketball is by far the one where accumulating a number of picks really isn't that helpful. The roster is so small that you aren't going to fit a number of new guys onto the team. In football, the roster is about 4 times larger so you need a lot more players and to a point, gathering picks is good. So, for example, in this case the marginal value of the 17th pick is really minimal (though I guess you can draft and stash). Getting a potential max salary guy is the key to success in the NBA. I know there are many max salary guys who went later in the draft, but theoretically your odds of getting one are a lot better at the top.

NBA trades are nearly always judged by who gets the better player in the deal, particularly when you are talking All Star level players.


On a semi-related note. Supermax contracts that depend on All-NBA voting, does that depend on whether the player is All-NBA at the time of the new contract or within a certain time preceding the contract? Will that change how the voters vote? Will it become a popularity contest as to who the voters want to have supermax contracts? This just bit Klay Thompson, costing him $30 million over 5 years.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Ok, serious question...

Would the #8, #10, #17 plus John Collins get you the #1 pick and Zion? I don't think it would but I also think New Orleans would be a little bit crazy to pass on that.

Interesting, but given how weak the draft is outside of the top 5-6 and given that Zion is a potential future top 5 player, absolutely no dice.

Zion WILL be a Pelly. That's non-negotiable. There is little any team can legitimately offer outside of a superstar to get that pick off the Pellies.

[Indoor66]

"Pellies", now isn't that just too cool for school.

[nmduke2001]

I know the contracts don't work, but if you're LA, do you call New Orleans and see if they would be willing to trade the #1 for Lebron? I think if you're LA, you have to at least consider trading Lebron. Unless they are able to get some max guy to join Lebron, they aren't winning anything during his contract.

[superdave]

That's probably enough to trade up for #3 with the Knicks.

But would NYK, or any team for that matter, want to bring in 3 rookies? Typically with that many picks, you'd either want to draft a guy to stash overseas or you'd roll one of those picks into next year's draft via trade.

The Celtics have the same dilemma with 14, 20, 22. What the heck do you do with three picks!? You cannot pay, much less play, them all so you have to move some.

[JNort]

What makes a draft weak? Is it the amount of top tier talent? If so maybe I can get behind that but this draft has a bunch of guys I think will be on NBA rosters for years to come. Maybe 5 or 6 potential all stars and a bunch of good roll players.

[Steven43]

From a business standpoint, New Orleans almost can’t trade the #1 pick. That surge of season ticket sales after the lottery was based on the understanding that Zion will be in a Pelicans uniform. Accept no substitutes (though I could be persuaded by, say, New York’s #3 pick and 2-3 of their young players).

Also remember that NOLA does have another superstar on the trading block. Atlanta has a much better chance there.

Who are New York’s young players who you think are potentially desirable enough to entice New Orleans to give up Zion?

[UrinalCake]

I think the Pelicans would consider that trade. I agree that the league is built around superstars, but on the other hand having players on rookie contracts who can contribute is also really valuable. And let’s not undersell Collins, he looks like a promising prospect. There’s no guarantee Zion will becomes a superstar (although he’s as likely to become one as anybody) so hedging your bet by bringing in four young players might make some sense.

[brevity]

From a business standpoint, New Orleans almost can’t trade the #1 pick. That surge of season ticket sales after the lottery was based on the understanding that Zion will be in a Pelicans uniform. Accept no substitutes (though I could be persuaded by, say, New York’s #3 pick and 2-3 of their young players).

Who are New York’s young players who you think are potentially desirable enough to entice New Orleans to give up Zion?

Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and Dennis Smith Jr. (all under contract) plus the #3 pick (presumably RJ Barrett) is a solid trade for Zion in an internal, best-for-the-organization kind of way, which is how I would look at it. Externally (in terms of selling tickets and community relations), it's a harder sell.

Also, it's a giant hypothetical without basis in reality, because why would New Orleans trade Zion at all when they still have a dissatisfied Anthony Davis? Most people here would say that Zion shouldn't be traded, but EVERYONE here would say he shouldn't be traded before Davis.

[superdave]

Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and Dennis Smith Jr. (all under contract) plus the #3 pick (presumably RJ Barrett) is a solid trade for Zion in an internal, best-for-the-organization kind of way, which is how I would look at it. Externally (in terms of selling tickets and community relations), it's a harder sell.

Also, it's a giant hypothetical without basis in reality, because why would New Orleans trade Zion at all when they still have a dissatisfied Anthony Davis? Most people here would say that Zion shouldn't be traded, but EVERYONE here would say he shouldn't be traded before Davis.

I was reading this morning that teams like the Lakers, Knicks and Celtics will likely have to get a third team involved to give NOP what they want. If they want an All-Star plus young prsopect plus picks, no team can accommodate that except for maybe Boston if they includes Hayward or Horford.

So the recipient of AD would have to send some of its young players to a third team in order to get an All-Star into the mix. For example, LA could send Ingram and Hart to the Wizards, then Beal, Ball and Kuzma would go to the Pelicans and AD would go to the Lakers. Seems to make a deal much more complicated.