I think many are undervaluing what a year of practice and learning our defensive schemes will do for a sophomore vs freshman. Of course if the talent disparity is large, that experience may not compensate, but where talent is comparable then I believe that experience will be meaningful.
That's my argument for Baker starting.
I can also see Moore occupying a Maggette role, which is a sixth starter who will close many games. My impression is he is multi-positional, whereas Baker is more suited for specific roles. So from a team perspective it might be optimal for Moore to come off the bench and replace the weak link among starters depending on matchup.
This is all pure speculation of course. I don't know much at all about the incoming freshmen.
My primary cinematic association with that song is a little less romantic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nGSvkJjc9c
By the same reasoning, Alex should be starting over either Baker or Stanley. He has the most experience and has played meaningful minutes in real games. Agree that this year’s team as a whole will benefit from some experienced players which we have all grown accustomed to not having.
I think the biggest gap in differences of opinion regarding Joey Baker is his level of talent.
In my opinion, Joey is significantly more talented than Alex O'Connell. Both guys are quite athletic, but I believe Joey is much bigger, and much more skilled.
Alex is a very good spot of up shooter, but I think Joey is capable of creating his own shot at this level, which Alex has not demonstrated through his first two years. Both of them were not good on defense last season, though not for lack of effort. Defense is likely what will dictate playing time for both of those guys.
Maybe there are some stats on it but from what I remember AOC is bar far the best offensive player returning. Good spot up shooter and can create his own shot. Imo he was criminally under used last year but we all have biasis that don't always turn out to be true. If Alex is even passable on defense he should be one of our top 2 options on offense unless someone surprises anyway.
"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking
Here are our returning players, with various advanced offensive stats. Alex has the best eFG% among players who played 60+ minutes and attempted more than one three-pointer, but by every other metric he did not have the best offensive performance among our returning players. Yeah, Javin's stats are inflated by his low usage (though Alex's usage wasn't particularly high, either), but looking at these stats there's no way I would say Alex is "b[y] far the best offensive player returning." Frankly, he was kind of mediocre on offense last season (and for what it's worth his advanced defensive stats are the worst of the bunch (not counting Joey Baker, who only played 18 minutes so his stats don't really tell us anything)).
Code:Player min oRating usage eFG% PER OWS/40 OBPM Javin DeLaurier 618 124.1 10.1 74.7% 18.5 0.071 3.5 Justin Robinson 58 121.4 13.2 76.9% 17.2 0.069 3.8 Tre Jones 1230 114.4 15.1 45.6% 15.4 0.071 3.6 Jack White 716 111.9 10.8 46.2% 12.5 0.045 2.4 Alex O'Connell 505 109.7 15.1 56.9% 12.6 0.055 3.0 Jordan Goldwire 301 80.8 9.1 30.7% 5.0 -0.013 -0.7 Joey Baker 18 69.1 15.5 37.5% -0.6 0.000 -5.6
I think Jones and Carey are the only locks as starters. And I tend to favor the older guys for minutes, especially early in the season. For us to be a great team by March, we will probably need Hurt starting and Moore and/or Baker playing at a high level. Guys like Jack and AOC know the system well and are presumably getting better in the off-season. I expect they’ll be battling hard against the new guys from day one in practice with an attitude of, If you want my starting position, you’re going to have to beat me for it.
Some upper classmen take leaps (think Nolan from soph to junior seasons) and some freshmen dont really have the game slow down for them enough to earn big minutes. Who are the candidates for that?
Could Alex or Joey take a big jump? I'd bet on Alex because he's played a lot of minutes over two years.
What about freshmen who struggle with the speed and physicality of college? Could Hurt fall into that category given his frame? Those are two things I'll pay attention to early on.
I think a lot of this depends on what kind of system Duke wants to play next year. If it's a more structured offense, I think Alex starts. He played with more confidence as a freshman, and last year it looked to me as if he wasn't sure what he was supposed to be doing on offense. There were no other threats to come off screens, and the offense was mostly about giving it to Zion or RJ in isolation. As a freshman, he could come in and run the same actions as Gary, and there were more set plays. I think there's a pretty good chance of that this year because our roster doesn't really have positionless players other than maybe Wendell, so I can see a more comfortable Alex playing well.
Jack and Jordan both force their way into minutes if they shoot well, Wendell probably starts, and Joey can get some minutes if he knocks down shots. He's much less athletic than Alex from what I saw last year, with more bulk but less length. I think Alex has a much higher ceiling in addition to more experience, so I think Alex has to struggle for Joey to get a major role. We have 10 players who could be in the rotation, but about half of them are still question marks. Obviously I'd love them all to make it a difficult decision, but there will probably be at least two players who don't reach their best-case scenarios this year and will not be in the rotation by the end of the season.
Do you have Alex's measurements? I can't find them, but I would have guessed his wingspan to be around the same, with another 1 1/2-2 inches of height. I think he's legitimately 6'6, unlike the "basketball" measurements most players have (Joey measured at 6'4 1/2 without shoes, if I recall correctly).
I have never been able to find Alex’s wingspan on line. But I’m pretty sure he’s shorter than Joey. Alex is listed at 6’6 on Duke’s website and Joey is listed at 6’7. Joey was measured at a camp (can’t remember which one) as 6’8, so I’d be very surprised if he was really as short as 6’4.5, even without shoes. I’m also not sure why you think Alex’s listed height is legit but not Joey’s.