MBB: 2019-2020 Rotation / Minutes Discussion Collector Thread

[kAzE]

I find it hard to believe that a player who (perhaps all of he/family/coaches) deemed a redshirt to be in his best interests, then was inserted into the lineup for all of 18 minutes - more or less looking unimpactful at best and reasonably overmatched at worst, and at no point did anything that really turned an eyebrow, will only ~6 months later be a starter at Duke in the face of other reasonable options.

Not impossible at all. But hard to bet on at this stage. And what is a minutes discussion if not betting on who you think will play?

You and others are certainly free to bet on him. I just think that's unreasonable given the facts we have standing at today. And I'm entitled to that opinion. And I think that opinion is a plenty fair reason to pencil (not pen) Wendell Moore in as a starter and glue Joey to the bench.

You want to pencil in Joey and glue Wendell because Joey looked good in Canadian exhibition games? Because he was ranked highly 2 years ago? Because he practiced against 3 lottery picks and did what? You see how when viewed in this (admittedly biased) light the argument seems flat outside of blind faith and cheerleading?

Not arguing. Just "discussing".

- Chillin

ETA - But hey, I never thought we'd burn the redshirt to begin with, so Joey already has a history of surprising me.

Well, that's not what I said at all. I think Wendell Moore is a likely starter, and Joey could possibly start. I think the most likely outcome is that Alex O'Connell begins the year as the starter. I also said in a later post that Joey could be a "darkhorse candidate to start." In no way is that a declaration that I think he's a lock as a starter, which you seem to think I posted somewhere. My comparison was just a posing a question as why people are so down on Joey when he was ranked similarly to Wendell 2 years ago.

But like others have said, it's kind of ridiculous that you would criticize my optimism for Joey Baker based on his play against Canadian college players, when all you have to go on for someone like Wendell Moore is youtube highlights of him playing against high schoolers. The point is, we don't know very much about either guy. You're certainly entitled to your opinion. I'm just more optimistic about Joey than you. I happen to think he's a really skilled scorer/shooter with good athleticism and pretty good size. He was 18 years old last year (he's actually 5 months younger than Matthew Hurt, who is already 19. Joey turns 19 in September), and we have fantastic coaches. He'll be a really good player for Duke at some point in his career, hopefully sooner rather than later.

[Kedsy]

Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy. Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

[Acymetric]

Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy. Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

"We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Re-quoted with emphasis on the anchor line. He's not saying he's going to play 11 guys. He's saying he expects everyone to be able to play, which just means he expects the end of the bench to give 100% (mostly in practice, and occasionally in games during spot minutes).

Why wouldn't he include Justin Robinson? He's on the team, right?

[sagegrouse]

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

He did mention "Justin Robinson, who is in graduate school," although not in the context of "the eleven." He is clearly challenging his players at the beginning of summer workouts.

[NSDukeFan]

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

Maybe Michael Savarino?

[Wahoo2000]

Couple of thoughts on what I've read in this thread so far -

1- re: Joey Baker
I think those assuming Baker is limited due to what transpired last season (decision to redshirt, and having little/no impact when the redshirt was pulled) might be missing something. Baker's decision to reclass, combined with the 3-lottery pick wings choosing Duke made redshirting something of a no-brainer. Baker wasn't going to get any kind of significant PT with those guys (Zion/RJ/Cam) clearly ahead of him, and a year to acclimate to college/get stronger/learn the system can have MASSIVE benefits. When De'Andre Hunter was redshirted his true freshman season I'd bet people doubted he'd ever become a lottery pick. I think the decision to redshirt a highly ranked player has little correlation to that player being a potential "bust" when there are certain factors involved (reclass, available PT due to stars ahead of him, possible injury, etc). Additionally, the fact that Baker couldn't make an impact in his limited PT this season should also probably be largely ignored. Guys who are redshirting are often focusing on things very different from the active roster. They're usually practicing on the "scout team" and getting little run with the regular rotation players to develop confidence/chemistry/etc. Additionally, they're usually in a pretty aggressive strength and conditioning program as well as potentially working on mechanics and other issues that can somewhat "throw off" their games in the short term in the interest of long term gains. Your staff was obviously looking for a spark last year when Baker's shirt was pulled and may have been hoping to "hit a one outer" so to speak in that Baker could come in, integrate with the regular rotation guys quickly, and become the sniper they needed. It didn't work, and they abandoned the plan pretty quickly. I don't think that abandonment should be read into as the staff suddenly losing faith that Baker was a good player. More like they took a long shot, it missed, and so they let him get back to the track he was on to get ready for 19-20. Not saying any of this as if Baker will "break out" this season as Hunter did after his redshirt year (Jay Huff also redshirted with Hunter and he's still working his way into being a core rotation player 2 years later), but he's certainly a candidate to contribute.

2- Like it or not, sometimes coaches have "favorites". Guys that they just love something about from a mentality standpoint that makes up for a lot in the skill/ability department. I'm far from certain on this one, but I really think Goldwire seems like one of those guys for Coach K. If Goldwire can spend the summer getting his 3pt shot even HALFWAY respectable (over 30% maybe?), I think he's a candidate to get a lot more minutes than some may think. I get that Moore and Stanley coming in are the shiny new toys, but remember that there's a massive difference between top 5 recruits and top 25ish recruits. The former are VERY likely impact guys from day one, the latter are often freshmen who look like freshmen - and often easily displaced (or at least competed with) by much lower ranked veterans. I do see one potential barrier to Goldwire getting a lot of run in that there will be guys (Trae and DeLaurier) getting a TON of minutes who are also "less than excellent" shooters and K might prefer to surround those guys with more capable shooters. Still, I don't know. There's something about the idea of the defense Duke could play with Trae/Goldwire/DeLaurier out there together that could lead to a LOT of transition/easy scoring opportunities. While that squad might be limited in the half court, they certainly should be good at generating easy buckets off turnovers. Ultimately, I think Goldwire will get consistent time.

3 - So with Jones/Delaurier/Carey CERTAIN to get solid rotation play, that leaves 4.5 spots for the rest of the team to battle over (given K's pretty consistent history over the past 4-5 seasons). I'd guess the leading candidates to get that time would be (ranked in order of my guesses as to the likelihood that they'll make the core rotation):
1) White
2) Goldwire
3) Hurt
4) O'Connell
5) Baker
6) Stanley*
7) Moore*

*Only putting Stanley and Moore at 6&7 as I think only ONE of them will end up in the core rotation. If I could combine them into one option called "freshman wing", they'd probably be #2 or #3 on this list. ONE of those guys will play I think - If the team needs more shooting/scoring it's probably Stanley. If it's athleticism/defense, it's Moore.

[Troublemaker]

3 - So with Jones/Delaurier/Carey CERTAIN to get solid rotation play, that leaves 4.5 spots for the rest of the team to battle over (given K's pretty consistent history over the past 4-5 seasons). I'd guess the leading candidates to get that time would be (ranked in order of my guesses as to the likelihood that they'll make the core rotation):
1) White
2) Goldwire
3) Hurt
4) O'Connell
5) Baker
6) Stanley*
7) Moore*

*Only putting Stanley and Moore at 6&7 as I think only ONE of them will end up in the core rotation. If I could combine them into one option called "freshman wing", they'd probably be #2 or #3 on this list. ONE of those guys will play I think - If the team needs more shooting/scoring it's probably Stanley. If it's athleticism/defense, it's Moore.

Yeah, Duke put too many miles on the jet going to Minnesota to recruit Hurt for me to think that he has less of a chance at playing time than JGold, haha. Hurt will start. And the staff is likewise very big on Moore, who is probably the better shooter/scorer than Stanley, unlike what you're saying there. Moore isn't just some sort of defensive specialist or athletic specialist. And if anything, it's Stanley that is the athletic freak.

As always, appreciate the thoughts from a guest, but your analysis in this particular case doesn't seem realistic. As always, remind me of this post if you turn out to be right / I turn out to be wrong.

[Wahoo2000]

Yeah, Duke put too many miles on the jet going to Minnesota to recruit Hurt for me to think that he has less of a chance at playing time than JGold, haha. Hurt will start. And the staff is likewise very big on Moore, who is probably the better shooter/scorer than Stanley, unlike what you're saying there. Moore isn't just some sort of defensive specialist or athletic specialist. And if anything, it's Stanley that is the athletic freak.

As always, appreciate the thoughts from a guest, but your analysis in this particular case doesn't seem realistic. As always, remind me of this post if you turn out to be right / I turn out to be wrong.

Yeah - you're much more in-tune and I'm sure have read much more on these guys than I have. My thoughts were based solely at looking at the incoming freshmen's heights/weights and scouting reports and led to these thoughts -
Hurt being so slight COULD prevent him from from being in the core rotation, though as the #3 on the list I still see it as a near certainty and would rate his chance to start above goldwire for sure. I just have goldwire that high because of most of my points earlier in that same post. The Stanley/Moore stuff was based purely on their scouting reports on 247 which to be fair DID say Stanley was a great athlete. I think I just assumed (prob unfairly) that since Moore seemed a little bigger/stronger/more developed physically he'd be a more ready and able defender. (Also those scouting reports seemed to portray Moore as more of a project offensively - though that sounds wrong from your analysis)

Thanks for the thoughts/education!

[UrinalCake]

Life, death, taxes, and Coach K proclaiming over the summer that he’s going to use his bench more...

[throatybeard]

Looking back, this seems to be the latest this thread has ever started, likely due to Javin and Marques doing their due diligence in working out for NBA teams.

Ah. Small blessings.

[MChambers]

Ah. Small blessings.

This thread serves the admirable purpose of consolidating all (well, most) 2019-20 playing time discussions in one place.

[NSDukeFan]

This thread serves the admirable purpose of consolidating all (well, most) 2019-20 playing time discussions in one place.

Well, some consolidation, if it’s any consolation?

[Fish80]

What seems to be lost on this group is that Coach K is it going 11 deep this year. We need to factor that into the minutes analysis.

[MChambers]

What seems to be lost on this group is that Coach K is it going 11 deep this year. We need to factor that into the minutes analysis.

That makes it easy. Putting aside injuries, each player gets 18.18 minutes per game (200/11).

[bullettoothtony]

Life, death, taxes, and Coach K proclaiming over the summer that he’s going to use his bench more...

Amen.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

[wsb3]

Life, death, taxes, and Coach K proclaiming over the summer that he’s going to use his bench more...

Thanks for the chuckle. I tried to spork you but alas I must spread comments around..

[devildeac]

Wasn't sure where to post this but didn't want to start a new thread:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...231254178.html

First I'd heard of this.

"Duke’s most experienced post player is recovering from elbow surgery.

Javin DeLaurier, a 6-foot-10 senior forward, had the surgery on Wednesday and is recovering well.

DeLaurier posted the news of the surgery on his personal Snapchat account Wednesday night and it was confirmed by Duke officials on Thursday, who described it as a “clean-up.”

[devildeac]

Amusing stuff about Michael Savarino:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...231247823.html

"We expect him to be a heck of a walk-on for us,” Krzyzewski said before cracking a joke: “And I don’t expect any problems from the mother. And I better not have any problems from the grandmother. That’s the one I’m worried about the most.”

[Devilwin]

My guess on the starters..
Carey
Moore
Hurt
Jones
Stanley

[flyingdutchdevil]

Amusing stuff about Michael Savarino:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/...231247823.html

"We expect him to be a heck of a walk-on for us,” Krzyzewski said before cracking a joke: “And I don’t expect any problems from the mother. And I better not have any problems from the grandmother. That’s the one I’m worried about the most.”

Does that mean he expects Savarino to be a straight A student?