MBB: 2019-2020 Rotation / Minutes Discussion Collector Thread

[ChillinDuke]

He played 18 minutes... I’m not sure how anyone can draw meaningful conclusions from that. But even so, I thought he looked pretty good. He looked like one of the better scorers on the team in the Canada games. He plays hard, and he’s pretty athletic. I’m not sure what you were expecting to see from a kid who was supposed to be in high school last year, especially being thrust into ACC games after sitting out most of the year.

I think the simple fact that he played only 18 minutes in a season where we direly needed a floor spacer is exactly what I am drawing a meaningful conclusion from.

Trying to parse his play in those minutes or benchmark his rankings is missing the forest for the trees. IMO

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

This has nothing to do with me being down on Wendell Moore. I think Wendell is a starter too. But there’s nothing that suggests to me that Wendell can’t be a SG, and start along someone like jack white or Joey baker playing SF.

Well, you were asking why the different treatment for Wendell and Joey when they were similarly ranked before Joey classified. I'm saying here are the list of things that differentiate them -- essentially, the opinions of USA coaches, draft experts, and Coach K himself perhaps.

[kAzE]

I think the simple fact that he played only 18 minutes in a season where we direly needed a floor spacer is exactly what I am drawing a meaningful conclusion from.

Trying to parse his play in those minutes or benchmark his rankings is missing the forest for the trees. IMO

- Chillin

I think you're judging him unfairly for his lack of minutes last season. It's entirely possible that the plan was to redshirt last year, and various injuries resulted in him getting some minutes for depth. I think it's actually encouraging that the coaches were wiling to put him in there in the middle of conference play. There's not enough data to draw conclusions either way.

Again, he looked pretty good in Canada. Given a year plus a summer of Duke coaching, and added strength, I think he'll play double digit minutes in 2019-20, and may be a dark horse candidate to start. Personally, I think he's more promising than Alex O'Connell.

[MChambers]

I think it's silly to predict minutes until we get those summer pick up game reports!

[Kedsy]

Joey reclassified May 2, 2018. The April 22, 2018 internet archive of 247's composite rankings (their version of RSCI) for the class of 2019 had Carey as #2, Hurt as #4, Stanley as #14, Baker as #21, and Moore as #23.

So Baker and Moore were essentially tied. And if we're going to play that game, then Stanley should start over Baker since he was #14.

I don't think it makes sense to just disregard Joey's RSCI rank of #37 in the 2018 class. I think he was probably going to drop some in the 2019 class rankings anyway, and the people who do these rankings factored that in when ranking him in 2018.

The reason people like me are high on Wendell to start is because he started on every USA team he played on (u16, u17, Hoop Summit), he is projected as a first-round pick by ESPN / Draft Express and by The Athletic / Sam Vecenie, and Coach K thinks Wendell is OAD (although I suuppose that could just be a recruiting pitch).

Yeah, the "where should Joey Baker be ranked" question is one of three issues that will make the 2020 perimeter rotation particularly difficult to predict. I discuss them in another thread.

[ChillinDuke]

I think you're judging him unfairly for his lack of minutes last season. It's entirely possible that the plan was to redshirt last year, and various injuries resulted in him getting some minutes for depth. I think it's actually encouraging that the coaches were wiling to put him in there in the middle of conference play. There's not enough data to draw conclusions either way.

Again, he looked pretty good in Canada. Given a year plus a summer of Duke coaching, and added strength, I think he'll play double digit minutes in 2019-20, and may be a dark horse candidate to start. Personally, I think he's more promising than Alex O'Connell.

I find it hard to believe that a player who (perhaps all of he/family/coaches) deemed a redshirt to be in his best interests, then was inserted into the lineup for all of 18 minutes - more or less looking unimpactful at best and reasonably overmatched at worst, and at no point did anything that really turned an eyebrow, will only ~6 months later be a starter at Duke in the face of other reasonable options.

Not impossible at all. But hard to bet on at this stage. And what is a minutes discussion if not betting on who you think will play?

You and others are certainly free to bet on him. I just think that's unreasonable given the facts we have standing at today. And I'm entitled to that opinion. And I think that opinion is a plenty fair reason to pencil (not pen) Wendell Moore in as a starter and glue Joey to the bench.

You want to pencil in Joey and glue Wendell because Joey looked good in Canadian exhibition games? Because he was ranked highly 2 years ago? Because he practiced against 3 lottery picks and did what? You see how when viewed in this (admittedly biased) light the argument seems flat outside of blind faith and cheerleading?

Not arguing. Just "discussing".

- Chillin

ETA - But hey, I never thought we'd burn the redshirt to begin with, so Joey already has a history of surprising me.

[lotusland]

Baker’s flawless recruit image went up in flames with his red-shirt. I mean how can you expect a guy who was designated as a redshirt at Duke this year but played 18- minutes instead, possibly be better than another kid his age who was playing against high schoolers 6 months ago?

[Fish80]

Baker’s flawless recruit image went up in flames with his red-shirt. I mean how can you expect a guy who was designated as a redshirt at Duke this year but played 18- minutes instead, possibly be better than another kid his age who was playing against high schoolers 6 months ago?

What? This makes no sense. Joey is an all ACC candidate. You, Mr Lotus, aren’t properly assimilating all the data. If you parse his 18 minutes into good minutes and bad minutes and then extrapolate the good, he is Golden!

[sagegrouse]

Baker’s flawless recruit image went up in flames with his red-shirt. I mean how can you expect a guy who was designated as a redshirt at Duke this year but played 18- minutes instead, possibly be better than another kid his age who was playing against high schoolers 6 months ago?

Two aphorisms*:

When the press was teasing John Wooden in 1973 or so that Bill Walton was nowhere near as good as Lew Alcindor and would play forward while Alcindor played center, Wooden replied, "You may be right, but don't you be too sure of it."

"The most under-rated player on next year's basketball team is the guy on the bench." As opposed to the returning starters and the star recruits that figure in everyone's projections.

I wouldn't write off Joey Baker...

Kindly,
Sage
* I don't know what this means but it is on my "vocabulary improvement" list.

[UrinalCake]

As a point of reference, here are the minutes from last year's team, based on sports-reference.com:

Barrett   35.3
Tre       34.2
Zion      30.0
Reddish   29.7
White     20.5
Bolden    19.0
Javin     16.3
O'Connell 14.0
Vrank      5.2
Robinson   3.4
Besser     3.0
Goldwire   8.6
Baker      4.5
Buckmire   3.3

As always, average minutes can be misleading because the bench guys are only averaged over games in which they actually played. Also Zion missed half of the FSU game and most of the first UNC-CHeat game, and Tre missed most of the Syracuse game. But I think most of us predicted 30+ minutes for the big four freshmen, with Tre playing close to the full 40 in competitive games.

Jack was playing 30-ish minutes for the first half of the season, but by the end was basically out of the rotation. Goldwire was the opposite, he took on a bigger role after the Louisville game. Minutes predictions are tough because things fluctuate throughout the season. Early on K will lean on his veterans, but then we'll play a bunch of scrub teams which puts the bigs at a disadvantage because it's easier to go small. Anyways, here are mine. They don't exactly add up to 200 minutes for the same reason as above, plus they're really just a rough swag:

Jones     36
O'Connell 25
Moore     30
Javin     20
Carey     29
Hurt      25
White     20
Goldwire  10
Stanley    7
Baker      8

By the time we get to the end of the season I think we'll see Hurt starting in place of Javin, with Stanley and Baker being out of the rotation and Goldwire only getting spot minutes whenever Tre goes out.

[MarkD83]

C- Carey, DeLaurier
PF- Hurt, White
SF- Moore, Baker
SG- O'Connell, Stanley
PG- Jones, Goldwire

-Jason "Duke has no positions, I know, but you know what I mean" Evans

I have not participated in the minutes contests throughout the years but perhaps this year I will. The reason is that I now know to make predictions with my head rather than my heart.

So some factoids / observations:
Coach K only plays 6-7 players
Coach K will play those players that play good defense
Coach K will defer to experienced players that know their roles on the team
Coach K will have more wings and shooters on the court then traditional big men.

With these factoids in mind I have taken Jason's quick summary of the roster and highlighted the players who will get the most minutes (unless there are injuries). This is in order of minutes played

Jones
Carey
Hurt
Moore
White (toss up with DeLaurier in the starting line-up but getting lots of minutes subbing in for Hurt, Moore and Carey)
DeLaurier (toss up with White in the starting line-up but getting lots of minutes subbing in for Hurt, Moore and Carey)
Goldwire (gets the edge to start because of defense and knowing his role)

If O'Connell, Baker or Stanley can hit more than 40% of their 3s then they take the 7th spot.

No need to have the contest just declare me the winner and let's move on

[jimsumner]

“There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose [minutes] have declined the next. Who besides Paulus?)”

FWIW, Greg Paulus has the distinction of having his minutes decline every single year he played for Duke. From 1163 as a freshman to 1068 to 843 to 578. It’s the big drop in his senior year that I remember. No one else saw that big a decline.

Hey, good list of names and some good memories. I am listing those who were “playing on a highly ranked team” at their peak minutes. Year listed in the year before the decline.

Shav Randolph*, 03-04, 709 to 548. He missed four weeks of the season from mid-December to mid-January. Per game minutes were virtually the same.

Casey Sanders, 00-01, 373 to 242. The question here is how he got on the court in 2001 – it was the “It’s over” event when Boozer broke his foot.

Nick Horvath, 02-03, 405 to 218. Nick’s an outlier in every discussion, isn’t he? Wasn’t he a double major in physics and English?

Andre Dawkins, 10-11, 778 to 760. Not significant. He skipped a year and then played only 453 as a senior.

Josh Hairston, 12-13, 444 to 284. Never played that much – but I suppose Jabari took up some of his minutes in 2013.

Rasheed Sulaimon, 12-13, 1050 to 871. No, we don’t count the decline in 2015 when he got kicked off the team.

I suppose "highly ranked team" is debatable, but I didn't count 1995-1996, 1986-1987 (#17) or 2003-2004 (#14) as highly ranked

Greg Newton, Ricky Price and Taymon Domzalski are all players who were starters early in their Duke careers and ended those careers as bench players. DNP-CD in final game.

[superdave]

I would bet Alex plays a higher mpg rate in the 2019 calendar year than when the calendar flips to 2020. He's got experience and will show improvement, but Moore and Stanley will soak up some of those minutes as they get acclimated. Also, Goldwire could soak up some minutes in tough league games where the D needs a boost.

I sort of expect the same scenario with Hurt and Jack White, where Hurt's minutes grows as he gets reps under his belt.

These minutes discussions are often too linear. I think the rotation will be deep and wide through the holidays, then take shape with Hurt, Stanley and Moore seeing minutes grow come January.

[sagegrouse]

Greg Newton, Ricky Price and Taymon Domzalski are all players who were starters early in their Duke careers and ended those careers as bench players. DNP-CD in final game.

Jim: Perhaps I should have done it diffeently, but I was looking for guys who lost minutes while playing on highly ranked Duke teams.

The three you call out were not listed because they were not on highly rated Duke teams at their peak. Their peak years were 1995-1996, when Duke, although making the NCAA tournament, was unranked. In 1997 Trajan returned after missing a year, Roshown McLeod showed up, etc. Similarly the guys on the 1982 team didn't get to play much after Dawkins & Co. arrived -- and that decline doesn't count -- the arriving players were a lot better.

Ricky Price also declined from 1997 to 1998 -- but he had a suspension in there and ended up on the bench. I saw him last year and told him I still remembered his buzzer-beater to beat Maryland in College Park -- he grinned broadly.

Greg Newton is an utter mystery to me to this day, but I hope he is doing well.

Dr. Taymon Domzalski graduated from Duke med, which he entered after a couple of years of pro ball, and is a practicing radiologist in Tacoma, Washington. He has certainly done very well.

[Kedsy]

The three you call out were not listed because they were not on highly rated Duke teams at their peak. Their peak years were 1995-1996, when Duke, although making the NCAA tournament, was unranked. In 1997 Trajan returned after missing a year, Roshown McLeod showed up, etc. Similarly the guys on the 1982 team didn't get to play much after Dawkins & Co. arrived -- and that decline doesn't count -- the arriving players were a lot better.

The arriving players were a lot better? Isn't that the whole point? Obviously we haven't seen them play yet, but what if Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley are a lot better than Jordan Goldwire, Jack White, and Alex O'Connell? What if Joey Baker (who, let's face it, we haven't seen enough of to draw legitimate conclusions) is a lot better? If so, those three veterans will have fewer minutes, won't they?

[sagegrouse]

The arriving players were a lot better? Isn't that the whole point? Obviously we haven't seen them play yet, but what if Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley are a lot better than Jordan Goldwire, Jack White, and Alex O'Connell? What if Joey Baker (who, let's face it, we haven't seen enough of to draw legitimate conclusions) is a lot better? If so, those three veterans will have fewer minutes, won't they?

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

[Kedsy]

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

Your hypothesis will likely be put to the test. If there were any year that more players would get minutes it would be next year. As I mentioned in another thread, our 5th through 10th guys, all of whom play pretty close to the same position, are all somewhat equal. So either (a) Coach K will pick three and the other three will be consigned to mop-up duty; or (b) he'll spread the minutes around all six. Or possibly he'll spend a decent proportion of the season mixing and matching to determine which three are the right ones and after he figures it out move to (a).

[CDu]

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

I think one probably should look at last year’s team - one of the least deep and THE least experienced ever at Duke under Coach K - as an outlier. Especially since we lost a key starter for essentially 13 games last year (5 for Jones, 6 for Williamson, 2 for Reddish). That inflated the bench guys’ minutes by about 400 minutes total.

So, for example, I might suggest that Goldwire could see a Casey Sanders like drop in minutes. And with Stanley and Moore coming in, I could see a scenario in which both outplay O’Connell - a guy who has been given several chances but has not found a way to stick in the rotation with any consistency - and knock his minutes down too.

[sagegrouse]

I think one probably should look at last year’s team - one of the least deep and THE least experienced ever at Duke under Coach K - as an outlier. Especially since we lost a key starter for essentially 13 games last year (5 for Jones, 6 for Williamson, 2 for Reddish). That inflated the bench guys’ minutes by about 400 minutes total.

So, for example, I might suggest that Goldwire could see a Casey Sanders like drop in minutes. And with Stanley and Moore coming in, I could see a scenario in which both outplay O’Connell - a guy who has been given several chances but has not found a way to stick in the rotation with any consistency - and knock his minutes down too.

Yeah, we'll see about O'Connell. Jordan Goldwire? I get this feeling that K really, really trusts him -- and that he will carve out a role.

[sagegrouse]

Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy. Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."