MBB: 2019-2020 Rotation / Minutes Discussion Collector Thread

[Troublemaker]

That dreaded (to some) and wonderful (to others) time has arrived. With Javin and Marques having made their decisions, the roster is set, and it's time to discuss what people expect the rotation and minutes distribution to look like for next season in men's basketball.

Let's try to put all the rotation / minutes discussion into this thread so we don't hijack other threads. As always on DBR, some amount of hijack is going to occur regardless.

[roywhite]

That dreaded (to some) and wonderful (to others) time has arrived. With Javin and Marques having made their decisions, the roster is set, and it's time to discuss what people expect the rotation and minutes distribution to look like for next season in men's basketball.

Let's try to put all the rotation / minutes discussion into this thread so we don't hijack other threads. As always on DBR, some amount of hijack is going to occur regardless.

If the minutes discussion has started, can the season be far behind?

Well, yes, but the 2019 recruits are on campus or soon will be, and these discussions do provide some interesting takes for our off-season contemplation.

[Troublemaker]

Looking back, this seems to be the latest this thread has ever started, likely due to Javin and Marques doing their due diligence in working out for NBA teams.

2014-15 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on March 31st

2015-16 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on April 27th

2016-17 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on May 19th

2017-18 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on May 15th

2018-19 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on April 16th

[JasonEvans]

I dunno about minutes (yet) but I am very excited for the practice battles we will see on a team that is clearly 2 deep at every position:

C- Carey, DeLaurier
PF- Hurt, White
SF- Moore, Baker
SG- O'Connell, Stanley
PG- Jones, Goldwire

And if someone is a little banged up, super sub JRob can fill in and we can move dudes around to make it work. Some awesome practice development will be happening for this squad!

-Jason "Duke has no positions, I know, but you know what I mean" Evans

[Truth&Justise]

Only one logical assumption: Coach K embraces his twilight years by playing Michael Savarino 40 minutes/g.

[sagegrouse]

I dunno about minutes (yet) but I am very excited for the practice battles we will see on a team that is clearly 2 deep at every position:

C- Carey, DeLaurier
PF- Hurt, White
SF- Moore, Baker
SG- O'Connell, Stanley
PG- Jones, Goldwire

And if someone is a little banged up, super sub JRob can fill in and we can move dudes around to make it work. Some awesome practice development will be happening for this squad!

-Jason "Duke has no positions, I know, but you know what I mean" Evans

Looks like ten players may achieve "meaningful minutes" -- I am eschewing the quasi-religious term, "rotation."

Here are returning players and minutes for the past season --

DeLaurier - 618
Jack White - 715
Alex O'C. - 505
Tre - 1,230
Goldwire - 301

There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose have declined the next. (Who besides Paulus?) Goldwire has the fewest on this list, but he is one of only two point guards on the roster and probably will be Tre's primary backup.

Of course, would-be red shirt Joey Baker played only 18 minutes. I thought he "looked good" on the court and had good shooting form, but, aren't his playing prospects in 2020 a big question mark? And, why wouldn't he compete for minutes?

Most everyone assumes all the recruits are likely to play:

Vernon Carey - C
Matthew Hurt - PF
Wendell Moore - SF
Cassius Stanley - SG

Looks like ten players with good arguments to spend a lot of time on the court.

[Kedsy]

There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose have declined the next. (Who besides Paulus?)

Dan Meagher*, David Henderson*, John Smith, Carmen Wallace, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Taymon Domzalski, Shav Randolph*, Casey Sanders, Nick Horvath, Marty Pocius, Dave McClure, Andre Dawkins, Josh Hairston, Rasheed Sulaimon. Off the top of my head. (I expect there are others.)


* - Meagher, D Henderson, & Randolph didn't decline by a whole bunch, but they did decline

[sagegrouse]

Dan Meagher*, David Henderson*, John Smith, Carmen Wallace, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Taymon Domzalski, Shav Randolph*, Casey Sanders, Nick Horvath, Marty Pocius, Dave McClure, Andre Dawkins, Josh Hairston, Rasheed Sulaimon. Off the top of my head. (I expect there are others.)


* - Meagher, D Henderson, & Randolph didn't decline by a whole bunch, but they did decline

“There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose [minutes] have declined the next. Who besides Paulus?)”

FWIW, Greg Paulus has the distinction of having his minutes decline every single year he played for Duke. From 1163 as a freshman to 1068 to 843 to 578. It’s the big drop in his senior year that I remember. No one else saw that big a decline.

Hey, good list of names and some good memories. I am listing those who were “playing on a highly ranked team” at their peak minutes. Year listed in the year before the decline.

Shav Randolph*, 03-04, 709 to 548. He missed four weeks of the season from mid-December to mid-January. Per game minutes were virtually the same.

Casey Sanders, 00-01, 373 to 242. The question here is how he got on the court in 2001 – it was the “It’s over” event when Boozer broke his foot.

Nick Horvath, 02-03, 405 to 218. Nick’s an outlier in every discussion, isn’t he? Wasn’t he a double major in physics and English?

Andre Dawkins, 10-11, 778 to 760. Not significant. He skipped a year and then played only 453 as a senior.

Josh Hairston, 12-13, 444 to 284. Never played that much – but I suppose Jabari took up some of his minutes in 2013.

Rasheed Sulaimon, 12-13, 1050 to 871. No, we don’t count the decline in 2015 when he got kicked off the team.

I suppose "highly ranked team" is debatable, but I didn't count 1995-1996, 1986-1987 (#17) or 2003-2004 (#14) as highly ranked

[jimsumner]

“There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose [minutes] have declined the next. Who besides Paulus?)”

FWIW, Greg Paulus has the distinction of having his minutes decline every single year he played for Duke. From 1163 as a freshman to 1068 to 843 to 578. It’s the big drop in his senior year that I remember. No one else saw that big a decline.

Hey, good list of names and some good memories. I am listing those who were “playing on a highly ranked team” at their peak minutes. Year listed in the year before the decline.

Shav Randolph*, 03-04, 709 to 548. He missed four weeks of the season from mid-December to mid-January. Per game minutes were virtually the same.

Casey Sanders, 00-01, 373 to 242. The question here is how he got on the court in 2001 – it was the “It’s over” event when Boozer broke his foot.

Nick Horvath, 02-03, 405 to 218. Nick’s an outlier in every discussion, isn’t he? Wasn’t he a double major in physics and English?

Andre Dawkins, 10-11, 778 to 760. Not significant. He skipped a year and then played only 453 as a senior.

Josh Hairston, 12-13, 444 to 284. Never played that much – but I suppose Jabari took up some of his minutes in 2013.

Rasheed Sulaimon, 12-13, 1050 to 871. No, we don’t count the decline in 2015 when he got kicked off the team.

I suppose "highly ranked team" is debatable, but I didn't count 1995-1996, 1986-1987 (#17) or 2003-2004 (#14) as highly ranked

Greg Newton, Ricky Price and Taymon Domzalski are all players who were starters early in their Duke careers and ended those careers as bench players. DNP-CD in final game.

[sagegrouse]

Greg Newton, Ricky Price and Taymon Domzalski are all players who were starters early in their Duke careers and ended those careers as bench players. DNP-CD in final game.

Jim: Perhaps I should have done it diffeently, but I was looking for guys who lost minutes while playing on highly ranked Duke teams.

The three you call out were not listed because they were not on highly rated Duke teams at their peak. Their peak years were 1995-1996, when Duke, although making the NCAA tournament, was unranked. In 1997 Trajan returned after missing a year, Roshown McLeod showed up, etc. Similarly the guys on the 1982 team didn't get to play much after Dawkins & Co. arrived -- and that decline doesn't count -- the arriving players were a lot better.

Ricky Price also declined from 1997 to 1998 -- but he had a suspension in there and ended up on the bench. I saw him last year and told him I still remembered his buzzer-beater to beat Maryland in College Park -- he grinned broadly.

Greg Newton is an utter mystery to me to this day, but I hope he is doing well.

Dr. Taymon Domzalski graduated from Duke med, which he entered after a couple of years of pro ball, and is a practicing radiologist in Tacoma, Washington. He has certainly done very well.

[Kedsy]

The three you call out were not listed because they were not on highly rated Duke teams at their peak. Their peak years were 1995-1996, when Duke, although making the NCAA tournament, was unranked. In 1997 Trajan returned after missing a year, Roshown McLeod showed up, etc. Similarly the guys on the 1982 team didn't get to play much after Dawkins & Co. arrived -- and that decline doesn't count -- the arriving players were a lot better.

The arriving players were a lot better? Isn't that the whole point? Obviously we haven't seen them play yet, but what if Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley are a lot better than Jordan Goldwire, Jack White, and Alex O'Connell? What if Joey Baker (who, let's face it, we haven't seen enough of to draw legitimate conclusions) is a lot better? If so, those three veterans will have fewer minutes, won't they?

[sagegrouse]

The arriving players were a lot better? Isn't that the whole point? Obviously we haven't seen them play yet, but what if Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley are a lot better than Jordan Goldwire, Jack White, and Alex O'Connell? What if Joey Baker (who, let's face it, we haven't seen enough of to draw legitimate conclusions) is a lot better? If so, those three veterans will have fewer minutes, won't they?

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

[Kedsy]

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

Your hypothesis will likely be put to the test. If there were any year that more players would get minutes it would be next year. As I mentioned in another thread, our 5th through 10th guys, all of whom play pretty close to the same position, are all somewhat equal. So either (a) Coach K will pick three and the other three will be consigned to mop-up duty; or (b) he'll spread the minutes around all six. Or possibly he'll spend a decent proportion of the season mixing and matching to determine which three are the right ones and after he figures it out move to (a).

[CDu]

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

I think one probably should look at last year’s team - one of the least deep and THE least experienced ever at Duke under Coach K - as an outlier. Especially since we lost a key starter for essentially 13 games last year (5 for Jones, 6 for Williamson, 2 for Reddish). That inflated the bench guys’ minutes by about 400 minutes total.

So, for example, I might suggest that Goldwire could see a Casey Sanders like drop in minutes. And with Stanley and Moore coming in, I could see a scenario in which both outplay O’Connell - a guy who has been given several chances but has not found a way to stick in the rotation with any consistency - and knock his minutes down too.

[sagegrouse]

I think one probably should look at last year’s team - one of the least deep and THE least experienced ever at Duke under Coach K - as an outlier. Especially since we lost a key starter for essentially 13 games last year (5 for Jones, 6 for Williamson, 2 for Reddish). That inflated the bench guys’ minutes by about 400 minutes total.

So, for example, I might suggest that Goldwire could see a Casey Sanders like drop in minutes. And with Stanley and Moore coming in, I could see a scenario in which both outplay O’Connell - a guy who has been given several chances but has not found a way to stick in the rotation with any consistency - and knock his minutes down too.

Yeah, we'll see about O'Connell. Jordan Goldwire? I get this feeling that K really, really trusts him -- and that he will carve out a role.

[sagegrouse]

Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy. Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

[Kedsy]

Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy. Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

[Acymetric]

Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy. Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

"We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Re-quoted with emphasis on the anchor line. He's not saying he's going to play 11 guys. He's saying he expects everyone to be able to play, which just means he expects the end of the bench to give 100% (mostly in practice, and occasionally in games during spot minutes).

Why wouldn't he include Justin Robinson? He's on the team, right?

[sagegrouse]

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

He did mention "Justin Robinson, who is in graduate school," although not in the context of "the eleven." He is clearly challenging his players at the beginning of summer workouts.

[Wahoo2000]

Couple of thoughts on what I've read in this thread so far -

1- re: Joey Baker
I think those assuming Baker is limited due to what transpired last season (decision to redshirt, and having little/no impact when the redshirt was pulled) might be missing something. Baker's decision to reclass, combined with the 3-lottery pick wings choosing Duke made redshirting something of a no-brainer. Baker wasn't going to get any kind of significant PT with those guys (Zion/RJ/Cam) clearly ahead of him, and a year to acclimate to college/get stronger/learn the system can have MASSIVE benefits. When De'Andre Hunter was redshirted his true freshman season I'd bet people doubted he'd ever become a lottery pick. I think the decision to redshirt a highly ranked player has little correlation to that player being a potential "bust" when there are certain factors involved (reclass, available PT due to stars ahead of him, possible injury, etc). Additionally, the fact that Baker couldn't make an impact in his limited PT this season should also probably be largely ignored. Guys who are redshirting are often focusing on things very different from the active roster. They're usually practicing on the "scout team" and getting little run with the regular rotation players to develop confidence/chemistry/etc. Additionally, they're usually in a pretty aggressive strength and conditioning program as well as potentially working on mechanics and other issues that can somewhat "throw off" their games in the short term in the interest of long term gains. Your staff was obviously looking for a spark last year when Baker's shirt was pulled and may have been hoping to "hit a one outer" so to speak in that Baker could come in, integrate with the regular rotation guys quickly, and become the sniper they needed. It didn't work, and they abandoned the plan pretty quickly. I don't think that abandonment should be read into as the staff suddenly losing faith that Baker was a good player. More like they took a long shot, it missed, and so they let him get back to the track he was on to get ready for 19-20. Not saying any of this as if Baker will "break out" this season as Hunter did after his redshirt year (Jay Huff also redshirted with Hunter and he's still working his way into being a core rotation player 2 years later), but he's certainly a candidate to contribute.

2- Like it or not, sometimes coaches have "favorites". Guys that they just love something about from a mentality standpoint that makes up for a lot in the skill/ability department. I'm far from certain on this one, but I really think Goldwire seems like one of those guys for Coach K. If Goldwire can spend the summer getting his 3pt shot even HALFWAY respectable (over 30% maybe?), I think he's a candidate to get a lot more minutes than some may think. I get that Moore and Stanley coming in are the shiny new toys, but remember that there's a massive difference between top 5 recruits and top 25ish recruits. The former are VERY likely impact guys from day one, the latter are often freshmen who look like freshmen - and often easily displaced (or at least competed with) by much lower ranked veterans. I do see one potential barrier to Goldwire getting a lot of run in that there will be guys (Trae and DeLaurier) getting a TON of minutes who are also "less than excellent" shooters and K might prefer to surround those guys with more capable shooters. Still, I don't know. There's something about the idea of the defense Duke could play with Trae/Goldwire/DeLaurier out there together that could lead to a LOT of transition/easy scoring opportunities. While that squad might be limited in the half court, they certainly should be good at generating easy buckets off turnovers. Ultimately, I think Goldwire will get consistent time.

3 - So with Jones/Delaurier/Carey CERTAIN to get solid rotation play, that leaves 4.5 spots for the rest of the team to battle over (given K's pretty consistent history over the past 4-5 seasons). I'd guess the leading candidates to get that time would be (ranked in order of my guesses as to the likelihood that they'll make the core rotation):
1) White
2) Goldwire
3) Hurt
4) O'Connell
5) Baker
6) Stanley*
7) Moore*

*Only putting Stanley and Moore at 6&7 as I think only ONE of them will end up in the core rotation. If I could combine them into one option called "freshman wing", they'd probably be #2 or #3 on this list. ONE of those guys will play I think - If the team needs more shooting/scoring it's probably Stanley. If it's athleticism/defense, it's Moore.