NBA Draft - When you were right and they were wrong

[Steven43]

I guess that's possible, but he'll have a long way to go to match JJ's work ethic..I hope he does

I think you’re right. It will come down to hard work, dedication, and perseverance. JJ is supreme in those areas.

[JayZee]

Perhaps I missed it, in which case I apologize to the poster who raised it, but the most interesting case in my day is Greg Oden/Kevin Durant/Joakim Noah. The consensus on this board seemed to be in the order listed, with Noah as, at best, a distant third. Oden was incapacitated by really miserable injuries, ending his promising career almost before it started. KD, we understand how he flew to the top (so far), and Noah's light shined brightly for a few years. I wonder how many possible superstars ended up by the boards as a result of debilatating injuries?

I miss Bill Simmons on ESPN. I just don't have the time/attention to seek him out wherever he is now. I remember him being all over this draft basically screaming that KD should be the #1. And that was before the injuries to Oden. Boy was he right.

I think 2018 with Ayton and Doncic we have something similar brewing in that the imposing, athletic center got taken over the basketball savant. Long term, almost surely the wrong choice.

Luckily for the Pelicans, Zion is both the amazing athlete and is also lightning quick mentally/intellectually.

[Troublemaker]

I miss Bill Simmons on ESPN. I just don't have the time/attention to seek him out wherever he is now. I remember him being all over this draft basically screaming that KD should be the #1. And that was before the injuries to Oden. Boy was he right.

I think 2018 with Ayton and Doncic we have something similar brewing in that the imposing, athletic center got taken over the basketball savant. Long term, almost surely the wrong choice.

Luckily for the Pelicans, Zion is both the amazing athlete and is also lightning quick mentally/intellectually.

Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game. Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

[Troublemaker]

As for Bogut, besides the injuries, a key was his draft year, 2005. The NBA had just started enforcing handchecking on perimeter players in the mid-2000s and eventually would embrace analytics in a big way, the combination of which would change the sport drastically. Bogut would've been a better player in previous eras before the sport devalued the traditional center by becoming so spread out and focused on threes and rim attacks by perimeter players.

[Acymetric]

Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game. Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

I don't remember there being any significant concern about injuries until after he was drafted...is that correct? If so, honestly that was probably the right choice. Remember, 2007 is not 2019, and traditional centers were still important parts of championship teams. Greg Oden was dominant. On the rare occasions he was able to play, if you extrapolated it out he would have been an absolute beast. Unless you could see the future and know that Oden basically wouldn't be able to play, Oden was the right choice there. There were huge red flags about Durant and whether he would be able to handle physical play at the NBA level.

[COYS]

Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game. Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

To be fair, we pretty much never got to see what a healthy Oden would do in the league. He was ahead of Durant by a mile in WinShares/48 minutes in their rookies seasons, the only season in which Oden was mostly healthy. Durant was an offensive force from the get-go, but it took him a little while to be efficient on offense and respectable on defense. Oden was mostly average on defense and more efficient on offense his rookie year. While I doubt Oden would ever have reached Durant's heights (very few have), he did look like he was on his way to becoming a very good player and possibly a regular All Star in the future. Of course, Oden has had other issues that make it hard for me to care too much about how things turned out for him.

I feel for Portland fans, though. Injuries killed those late '00s, early 10's teams. Brandon Roy and Greg Oden could've, would've, should've been quite the duo.

[Troublemaker]

I don't remember there being any significant concern about injuries until after he was drafted...is that correct? If so, honestly that was probably the right choice. Remember, 2007 is not 2019, and traditional centers were still important parts of championship teams. Greg Oden was dominant. On the rare occasions he was able to play, if you extrapolated it out he would have been an absolute beast. Unless you could see the future and know that Oden basically wouldn't be able to play, Oden was the right choice there. There were huge red flags about Durant and whether he would be able to handle physical play at the NBA level.

I'm ambivalent about Oden vs Durant; my reply was more about pointing out that Bill Simmons went back and forth on the Oden/Durant debate.

That said, to answer your question, NBA front offices surely knew that Oden walked with a limp, previously had hip surgery in 6th grade, and that one of his legs measured longer than the other. I can't recall whether that information made it out to the public pre-draft, though.

[AZLA]

Taytum. I thought he was better than the 1 and 2 and that proved out. I'm glad he ended up at the Celtics.

I think Cam Reddish should go higher than where he's projected (much higher than 8), and in the Top 5.

NBA is a wide open shooters' league and his height and shooting ability (even though his percentage at Duke was lower than expected) gives him a lot of upside.

Plus if he can grow a beard, develop a patented flop move to draw phantom insta-fouls, and take 3.5 back-steps after "gathering" without getting called for traveling, then the sky is the limit! I'm sorry, the ceiling is the roof.

If Cam doesn't go in the top 5, that will be surprising to me, even though most are projecting him lower.

I think some teams are playing coy to get him earlier.

[Troublemaker]

I'm ambivalent about Oden vs Durant; my reply was more about pointing out that Bill Simmons went back and forth on the Oden/Durant debate.

That said, to answer your question, NBA front offices surely knew that Oden walked with a limp, previously had hip surgery in 6th grade, and that one of his legs measured longer than the other. I can't recall whether that information made it out to the public pre-draft, though.

Just for poops and giggles, I found DBR's Oden vs Durant thread way back when. I certainly wasn't ambivalent then:

Durant. He'll have an easier time trying to take over a game.

Based on what I wrote, even though it wasn't fleshed out (but knowing myself), I think back in 2007 it was already becoming apparent that the game may be moving away from big men. By then, we were 3 years into the NBA enforcing handchecking, and 3 years into D'Antoni's "7 seconds or less" Suns using pace and space to rack up points.

[Acymetric]

Just for poops and giggles, I found DBR's Oden vs Durant thread way back when. I certainly wasn't ambivalent then:



Based on what I wrote, even though it wasn't fleshed out (but knowing myself), I think back in 2007 it was already becoming apparent that the game may be moving away from big men. By then, we were 3 years into the NBA enforcing handchecking, and 3 years into D'Antoni's "7 seconds or less" Suns using pace and space to rack up points.

The best part of that thread is the feeling of vertigo I got reading the first couple posts seriously discussing whether either guy would go pro or not. A different time indeed.

I also had to restrain myself from replying to 12 year old posts criticizing their bad takes as I read through.

[budwom]

Taytum. I thought he was better than the 1 and 2 and that proved out. I'm glad he ended up at the Celtics.

I think Cam Reddish should go higher than where he's projected (much higher than 8), and in the Top 5.

NBA is a wide open shooters' league and his height and shooting ability (even though his percentage at Duke was lower than expected) gives him a lot of upside.

Plus if he can grow a beard, develop a patented flop move to draw phantom insta-fouls, and take 3.5 back-steps after "gathering" without getting called for traveling, then the sky is the limit! I'm sorry, the ceiling is the roof.

If Cam doesn't go in the top 5, that will be surprising to me, even though most are projecting him lower.

I think some teams are playing coy to get him earlier.

Perhaps you're right, but his handle is absolutely atrocious, he turns the ball over when not even pressured...there is definite risk to the pick. (I'm pretty sure he won't be a top five pick)...

[superdave]

It's so tempting to watch a guy dominate and think it will project at the next level. Okafor was a great example of that - averaged 17 and 8 at Duke and won a title. But he lacked the high motor (low steals/blocks) and also shot free throws poorly (51%).

The more Draft writeups and scouting reports I read, the more they are focused on things that translate - steals, blocks, free throw %, wingspan, vertical.

Compare Okafor Steals + Blocks / Games to Zion. 2.18 to 3.91.

That backs up the fact that Zion was diving on the floor and going hard while Okafor was thought to be conserving energy on D.

This year is going to be interesting because outside the top 3, there's a lot of wings who have not really distinguished themselves - Hunter, Culver, Reddish, Nassir Little. They seem to play well every other game. How would you project a guy like Reddish who looks so smooth and effortless vs. Hunter who disappeared so much then dominated crunch time of the Title game?

Reddish had 77 steals/blocks but De'Andre Hunter only had 44. Pace plays a part in those numbers, but on paper Hunter looks kinda light even though he's considered a stopper.

I guess I'll keep my day job, but if I was drafting 4-8 I would trade down.

[superdave]

Player's Freshman Stats - 3% / FT % / Steals+Blocks per 100 Possessions
Paul George - .447 / .697 / 4.1
Andrew Wiggins - .341 / .775 / 3.8
Cam Reddish - .333 / .772 / 4.0

I dont know how to insert the shrug emoji here, but this makes me want to trade down.

If you could flip the #4 of #5 for the #8 and #10, would you do that? All the guys after the top 3 feels like a crapshoot to me.

[Steven43]

Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game. Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

I don’t know about that. I remember Simmons loving pretty much everything about Durant while liking Oden quite a bit, but not as much. Furthermore, I distinctly remember him pointing out that Oden walked and moved awkwardly, almost as if one leg were longer than the other. He foresaw long-term leg injuries for Oden. And he was right.

[JayZee]

Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game. Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

I only remember the Durant comments, but it was a while ago...

Where were you on Ayton/Doncic last year? Just to be clear, I'm not saying in any sort of confrontational 20/20 hindsight way. I'm just interested in thoughts as it's at least somewhat similar being big/strong/mobile vs scoring/passing/chess piece. And while Doncic is clearly amazing, I don't think it's obvious that he will be better than Ayton long term (though I'd rather have Doncic if I had to pick now)

[Troublemaker]

I don’t know about that. I remember Simmons loving pretty much everything about Durant while liking Oden quite a bit, but not as much. Furthermore, I distinctly remember him pointing out that Oden walked and moved awkwardly, almost as if one leg were longer than the other. He foresaw long-term leg injuries for Oden. And he was right.

He was right when he had Durant at #1. And he was wrong when he had Oden #1. He held both opinions, as my link shows. Simmons very likely spent more time thinking Durant was #1, though; however, it was not a clean win for Simmons since he did flip-flop.

I only remember the Durant comments, but it was a while ago...

Where were you on Ayton/Doncic last year? Just to be clear, I'm not saying in any sort of confrontational 20/20 hindsight way. I'm just interested in thoughts as it's at least somewhat similar being big/strong/mobile vs scoring/passing/chess piece. And while Doncic is clearly amazing, I don't think it's obvious that he will be better than Ayton long term (though I'd rather have Doncic if I had to pick now)

Yeah, I'm mostly real down on drafting big men #1 these days unless they show great touch (good 3P% and good FT%), quickness, and shotblocking ability (the "unicorn" essentially). I preferred Doncic over Ayton.

[Steven43]

Yeah, I'm mostly real down on drafting big men #1 these days unless they show great touch (good 3P% and good FT%), quickness, and shotblocking ability (the "unicorn" essentially). I preferred Doncic over Ayton.

100% agree. I can’t imagine drafting a big man in the top five if he doesn’t project to being at least a 33% 3-pt shooter and at least 70% from the line. Doncic was a no-brainer over Ayton.

[CDu]

To be fair, we pretty much never got to see what a healthy Oden would do in the league. He was ahead of Durant by a mile in WinShares/48 minutes in their rookies seasons, the only season in which Oden was mostly healthy. Durant was an offensive force from the get-go, but it took him a little while to be efficient on offense and respectable on defense. Oden was mostly average on defense and more efficient on offense his rookie year. While I doubt Oden would ever have reached Durant's heights (very few have), he did look like he was on his way to becoming a very good player and possibly a regular All Star in the future. Of course, Oden has had other issues that make it hard for me to care too much about how things turned out for him.

I feel for Portland fans, though. Injuries killed those late '00s, early 10's teams. Brandon Roy and Greg Oden could've, would've, should've been quite the duo.

Yeah, I apparently didn’t respond to that thread, but I remember being high on Oden’s NBA chances. The guy absolutely obliterated two fellow lottery picks (Noah and Horford). He was a stud. And while the game would eventually become an outside-in league, it was still several years away from being true that a low-post big could not dominate.

Unfortunately, the injuries meant we never really got to see Oden. But a guy who was better than Horford and Noah? Yeah, that guy probably would have been really good. Not so much in 2019, but from 2008-2014ish.

[subzero02]

Was wrong about:
-Yao Ming. Thought he'd be a stiff
-Shelden Williams. As well as Boozer and Brand turned out, I was stunned that Shelden could hardly get off the bench in the NBA
-Brandon Wright. Thought his game would translate really well to the NBA and he'd be a perennial all-Star
-Derrick Williams. You couldn't have convinced me he'd never average double-digits
-Kemba Walker. I thought solid backup or perhaps serviceable starter.
-MKG. Surprisingly average.

Was right about:
-Andrew Bogut. A fine player in his own right, but I couldn't fathom how everyone catapulted him to the top
-Evan Turner. Role player, not the #2 pick
-Mike Dunleavy. Turned out to have some good years in Indiana, but I thought the NBA was overhyping him out of college.
-Adam Morrison. Didn't think he would be effective in the NBA (though even I didn't foresee him as that much of a bust)
-Hasheem Thabeet. Smelled bust from a mile away

3rd team all NBA...

[JNort]

100% agree. I can’t imagine drafting a big man in the top five if he doesn’t project to being at least a 33% 3-pt shooter and at least 70% from the line. Doncic was a no-brainer over Ayton.

Agreed. It's why I thought the best strategy was to grab a guard or foward in that draft and then trade back in for Mitchell Robinson who I was high on (got him in our DBR mock for the Lakers). I was very firmly on the Doncic train and was for the Durant over Oden train too.