Nassir Little throws Roy under bus

[English]

The irony is that, in high school, his rep was that he was too laid back and would disappear from games. So his forcing the issue with more limited opportunities is sort of an odd juxtaposition to his high school career where he was given lots of opportunities and deferred too much.

He seemed to struggle with three things at Duke:
- a loose dribble (often too high and away from his body, rarely well-protected);
- playing through contact; and
- dynamic court awareness (i.e., reacting to the defense when he was on the move)

Those two limitations really sabotaged him, as he was rendered basically ineffective in anything beyond a catch-and-shoot role. And he wasn't a good enough shooter to be a pure catch-and-shoot guy.

When he was stationary with space, he was a good passer on lobs/alley-oops. When he was set, he was a decent shooter. But whenever he put the ball on the floor, things went haywire for him. Maybe that is something that he'll improve on with time. But he's still well shy of being effective in college, and the NBA is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY harder than the college game.

I don't mean to single this post out, but this type of logic has been laid out repeatedly lately (and even through the season, when some were suggesting that Reddish and/or Little would fall out of the first round or return to school).

If you think that it's questionable that high-level basketball players like Cam Reddish will improve with time in the NBA, I recommend taking a peek at some of the top-30 NBA players now and check in on their performances in the first few years in the league. It is STARK how most of these guys improved markedly. Certainly some flame out, but virtually no one outside of Lebron and a handful of anomalies enters the league an all-star.

[CDu]

I don't mean to single this post out, but this type of logic has been laid out repeatedly lately (and even through the season, when some were suggesting that Reddish and/or Little would fall out of the first round or return to school).

If you think that it's questionable that high-level basketball players like Cam Reddish will improve with time in the NBA, I recommend taking a peek at some of the top-30 NBA players now and check in on their performances in the first few years in the league. It is STARK how most of these guys improved markedly. Certainly some flame out, but virtually no one outside of Lebron and a handful of anomalies enters the league an all-star.

Yes, but they are usually not starting from the deficit that Reddish showed this season, either.

There are, of course, exceptions - guys who were the extreme outliers in terms of improvements. But Reddish is going to have to make substantially more improvements than most stars did to become a star in the league.

Not saying he can't or won't do it. Just saying that he has a long way to go, even relative to the "long way to go" that nearly every NBA star faces coming out of college.

[PackMan97]

I don't mean to single this post out, but this type of logic has been laid out repeatedly lately (and even through the season, when some were suggesting that Reddish and/or Little would fall out of the first round or return to school).

If you think that it's questionable that high-level basketball players like Cam Reddish will improve with time in the NBA, I recommend taking a peek at some of the top-30 NBA players now and check in on their performances in the first few years in the league. It is STARK how most of these guys improved markedly. Certainly some flame out, but virtually no one outside of Lebron and a handful of anomalies enters the league an all-star.

Heck, just look at Kobe Bryant as a great example. His first two years in the league were a hot mess.

[English]

Yes, but they are usually not starting from the deficit that Reddish showed this season, either.

There are, of course, exceptions - guys who were the extreme outliers in terms of improvements. But Reddish is going to have to make substantially more improvements than most stars did to become a star in the league.

Not saying he can't or won't do it. Just saying that he has a long way to go, even relative to the "long way to go" that nearly every NBA star faces coming out of college.

After their freshman year in college, right? Some, not others. It's not a four-leaf clover that top players had glaring question marks after a year in college. I think you may be overestimating how polished most of these players were after their freshmen seasons, or you're underestimating Cam's skills because you watched him under a microscope at Duke. Or both.

Most have clear deficiencies that needed to be corrected, and were over time. Cam has deficiencies that need to be corrected, and given the infrastructure of the league, I'm confident will be over time. His shot isn't broken, he's not a 1 or a point forward, he's a plus defender with length, his decision-making for a freshman seems par for the course (decision-making is a very common "weakness" on scouting reports of 19yo players).

There's no way to judge now, so this isn't much of a worthwhile argument, but I stand by Cam's skillset now and immense potential in thinking he's in a great position to succeed in the league, and I'm surprised by the wealth of posters who doubt that simply because he didn't perform to expectation in a year of college. Actual NBA GMs have less doubt than many here, which I think probably reflects that most around here are CBB fans and less NBA fans.

[English]

Heck, just look at Kobe Bryant as a great example. His first two years in the league were a hot mess.

I just did a quick, unscientific perusal of the top PER guys in the league this season (say what you want about PER as a tool to measure top players, this was mostly just to filter out the noise), and what their numbers looked like after a year of college ball--this excludes most of the Euros--and it's generally what I expected. There are a lot of solid college resumes, and there are a lot of meh and below average resumes in that top-tier. If Cam Reddish was a top-30 player in the league in five years, his college resume wouldn't stand out as much of an outlier.

[budwom]

I still have high hopes for Reddish in the NBA, but I have to say I was taken aback by how poor his handle was. And as the season wore on I just didn't see improvement in that area.
It doesn't mean he won't improve vastly in the future, but I think concerns are justified.

[MarkD83]

To give some perspective to the NBA draft there is one thing to remember: The NBA will draft 60 players every year and if you are one of the first 30 you get guaranteed money.

That means you don't have to be NBA ready to be drafted. You just have to have enough talent that you are one of the top 60 (30) players available in any given year.

[DevilYouKnow]

In Roy's defense, he has very little (no pun intended) experience handling elite talent.

Maybe he dusted off the James Michael MacAdoo player development plan for Nassir and it didn't take.

[BD80]

In Roy's defense, he has very little (no pun intended) experience handling elite talent.

Maybe he dusted off the James Michael MacAdoo player development plan for Nassir and it didn't take.

Didn't work that well for JMac either. Although he does have 2 rings for holding down the end of the bench for the Warriors.

Bet he wishes he had taken Italian instead of learning a word of Swahili per semester during his time at unc.

[Troublemaker]

The thing to remember about Cam is that our sample size for him is so small (one season of college), and that sample was imo contaminated by him being in a situation that he will never experience in the NBA -- zero reliable shooters on the floor. (Cam himself was of course part of the problem by not being a reliable shooter himself -- let's define reliable as 35%). Cam will never see in the NBA the dramatically packed-in defenses that he saw at Duke. That doesn't mean that he doesn't have weaknesses, just that the weaknesses were exacerbated by the situation.

So, for example, let's say Duke spent the majority of the game with even just two reliable shooters on the floor. Maybe instead of a 96 offensive rating, Cam produces a 105 instead. Or instead of a 21% turnover rate, he knocks that down to 18% in that situation with two good shooters. Those wouldn't be good numbers either, but look, when you have bodies all around you when you drive, you're going to turn the ball over some whether it's by charge or by strip or by losing the ball upon contact. Cam definitely has to improve his handle and his strength to handle contact, but our offensive spacing was a nightmare situation for him.

I think all of our guys might be underrated offensively because of the situation they played in this past season. Which is kind of crazy to think about when it comes to Zion -- imagine if he played on a team with shooters opponents couldn't leave and he didn't have to power through or jump through 3 or 4 guys to score.

[Troublemaker]

Overall, because Cam is a good FT shooter (which means he has touch) and is a good defender, I definitely would take him in the lottery in this weak draft. And I do think he has a reasonable chance to become a quality NBA starter. Develop a consistent release point, and embrace your destiny as 3-and-D.