2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[Kedsy]

Perhaps Flip is more in the mold of Singler and Hurt, also top-10 players (maybe Hurt slipped to just outside of it) who were versatile bigs and great shooters but lacked elite NBA athleticism.

It was of course a different era, but even so, if Kyle Singler was 6'11 like Kyle Filipowski, he probably wouldn't have stayed after his freshman year. And Matthew Hurt fell into the first category I mentioned in my earlier post, in that he was a complete liability on defense (also #12 is a far, far different recruiting rank situation than #4). If Filipowski plays defense like Hurt, then I agree he might come back. Though if he's really that bad on D, it might be up for debate whether or not him coming back would be a good thing for the team.

I think the belief that Flip is less likely to go OAD comes from the fact that he didn't stand out in the summer all-star games and hasn't popped in any of the uncut/cut scrimmage videos. We won't know until we see him on the court and then see how he develops over the course of the year.

I think you're probably right, but I don't think two or three freestyle games present a strong basis for this sort of belief. Filipowski admittedly didn't shoot very well in his two all-star games but, for example, he rebounded (an eye-popping 21.0 rebs per 40 mins) and assisted (5.3 ap40) much better than Lively (8.1 rp40 and 1.4 ap40), who also didn't do so well in the scrimmage videos (getting kind of abused by Ryan Young). But nobody's talking about Lively staying more than one year (and they shouldn't be).

[dukelifer]

It was of course a different era, but even so, if Kyle Singler was 6'11 like Kyle Filipowski, he probably wouldn't have stayed after his freshman year. And Matthew Hurt fell into the first category I mentioned in my earlier post, in that he was a complete liability on defense (also #12 is a far, far different recruiting rank situation than #4). If Filipowski plays defense like Hurt, then I agree he might come back. Though if he's really that bad on D, it might be up for debate whether or not him coming back would be a good thing for the team.



I think you're probably right, but I don't think two or three freestyle games present a strong basis for this sort of belief. Filipowski admittedly didn't shoot very well in his two all-star games but, for example, he rebounded (an eye-popping 21.0 rebs per 40 mins) and assisted (5.3 ap40) much better than Lively (8.1 rp40 and 1.4 ap40), who also didn't do so well in the scrimmage videos (getting kind of abused by Ryan Young). But nobody's talking about Lively staying more than one year (and they shouldn't be).

I cannot think of a modern NBA comp for Flip. If he can shoot from multiple points on the floor- he will be fine - but his rebounding ability is not enough.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Perhaps Flip is more in the mold of Singler and Hurt, also top-10 players (maybe Hurt slipped to just outside of it) who were versatile bigs and great shooters but lacked elite NBA athleticism.

I think the belief that Flip is less likely to go OAD comes from the fact that he didn't stand out in the summer all-star games and hasn't popped in any of the uncut/cut scrimmage videos. We won't know until we see him on the court and then see how he develops over the course of the year.




Having been a subscriber there in the past, I would say they know that they're talking about and they do have great access inside the program. With that said, they can only report what they see and hear. A year ago at this time they were leaking word that Keels was better than expected and would likely start over Griffin even if Griffin was healthy, which was not expected at the time. That played out in the UK game, then not so much for most of the rest of the season.

I think we're reading way too much into All-Star games and scrimmages. Given Flip's weight (or lack thereof) and questions about his defense, he may fail to live up to that #4 ranking. However, I am 100% convinced he's going pro. It's what you do as a Top 5 recruit. And he has the talent to play in the NBA. His skillset is like a Lauri Markkennen (spelling?).

That said, I do have a few opinions:

1) Assuming Mitchell is at least good on defense and Flip is a liability, I expect him to start. This team's calling card looks to be defense, with Grandison, Whitehead, and Lively all having really-good-to-elite defensive reputations. As we've seen with AJ Griffin, one player can really hurt your defense rating. If Flip is going to hurt our defense, Mitchell may start.

2) I expect Flip to leave, even if he doesn't start. Happened with Giles. Happened with Frank Jackson. Happens to a lot of elite frosh.

3) I am not reading the "lack of a recruited 5 in 2024" as a sign Flip is staying. The coaching staff would be pretty dumb to not recruit a 5 in the case Flip does go pro (like Tyus did in 2015). There are so many avenues to take: late recruit, reclassify, and, probably the best option, the transfer portal.

4) This is a top 4 player we're talking about! Yes, say this class is weak or there were a bunch of reclassifiers. But Flip is still a top 4 player according to the rankings!!!!! IMO, those expecting him to stay must also expect him to perform poorly this year. Because there isn't a scenario where Flip plays well AND stays.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I cannot think of a modern NBA comp for Flip. If he can shoot from multiple points on the floor- he will be fine - but his rebounding ability is not enough.

Lauri Markkanen? Super tall. Not overly athletic. Solid footwork. Great 3pt shot.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I cannot think of a modern NBA comp for Flip. If he can shoot from multiple points on the floor- he will be fine - but his rebounding ability is not enough.

Lauri Markkanen?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Lauri Markkanen? Super tall. Not overly athletic. Solid footwork. Great 3pt shot.

Ha, had the same thought at the same time.

I was hoping Markkanen would break out with the Bulls. I liked the idea of Lauri and Wendell Carter, Jr. together as a frontcourt as they seemed to pair well on papper. The issue was that Lauri was too poor a perimeter defender. He's better served in that Brook Lopez (there's another comp for Filipowski) role as a stretch 5. Lauri had a pretty decent year with the Cavaliers last season and looks like he'll get a more featured role with the rebuilding Jazz this upcoming season. He has been playing great in the FIBA EuroBasket this summer from all accounts.

[Truth&Justise]

Lauri Markkanen? Super tall. Not overly athletic. Solid footwork. Great 3pt shot.

Lauri Markkanen?

Great minds think alike...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Great minds think alike...

I haven't been called a 'great mind' in a while.

A broken clock is right twice a day...

[SkyBrickey]

To pile on, if the #4 ranked recruit in the country is not worthy of a first round draft pick, then I’d say it’s a huge whiff by the ratings services.

At one point late in the cycle, On3 had him as their #1 ahead of both Lively and Whitehead.

I could also see a scenario where Mitchell starts and Flip subs in situationally for either Mitchell or Lively. He’s got that 4/5 flexibility which is valuable.

[budwom]

To pile on, if the #4 ranked recruit in the country is not worthy of a first round draft pick, then I’d say it’s a huge whiff by the ratings services.

At one point late in the cycle, On3 had him as their #1 ahead of both Lively and Whitehead.

I could also see a scenario where Mitchell starts and Flip subs in situationally for either Mitchell or Lively. He’s got that 4/5 flexibility which is valuable.

I think you guys are way, way too focused on the wonders of the RSCI rating. Not all #4s are created equal, they actually have different characteristics which may determine how long they'll be in college. But I've been lectured on how wrong I am, so carry on.

[DavidBenAkiva]

To pile on, if the #4 ranked recruit in the country is not worthy of a first round draft pick, then I’d say it’s a huge whiff by the ratings services.

At one point late in the cycle, On3 had him as their #1 ahead of both Lively and Whitehead.

I could also see a scenario where Mitchell starts and Flip subs in situationally for either Mitchell or Lively. He’s got that 4/5 flexibility which is valuable.

I feel like we should give the rating services a giant pass for the Class of 2022 and maybe even 2023. For c/o '22, there were very few events and scouting opportunities during the summers of 2020 and '21. The 2020-21 HS season was a wildly different environment for everyone and varied all over the country. Then they finally get to go out and see players again. Into the gym walks Kyle Filipowski, a 6'11" center that moves and handles the ball more like a wing and can shoot it, too. He must have been exciting to see in person given his relatively low profile pre-COVID.

The rating services do miss on recruits from time to time. EJ Montgomery comes to mind. 247 had him as the #6 recruit in the Class of 2018, just a spot ahead of a guy named Zion Williamson. It's possible that the services have missed on Flip. On the other hand, it's possible that Flip has real talent that flashed in the summer of 2021 but that he needs time to build his body and conditioning to the level where he can consistently tap into it. It used to be that big men needed more time to develop. Now we expect everyone to be a stud from the get-go. That doesn't always happen. Perhaps we will get back to saying 'the best thing that can happen to a freshman is to become a sophomore.'

[Billy Dat]

Flip turned my head watching him play FIBA 3v3.

Here's last summer's gold medal game where he played on the US Team with Grady Dick (Kansas), Keyonte George (Baylor) and Eric Daley Jr. (current senior at IMG, a 4 star I believe)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpY2Z6Lho6E

Regardless of his defense, which is hard to judge in this setting, I think his offensive skill set is too valuable for him to not get a ton of PT.

[DukieTiger]

To pile on, if the #4 ranked recruit in the country is not worthy of a first round draft pick, then I’d say it’s a huge whiff by the ratings services.

At one point late in the cycle, On3 had him as their #1 ahead of both Lively and Whitehead.

I could also see a scenario where Mitchell starts and Flip subs in situationally for either Mitchell or Lively. He’s got that 4/5 flexibility which is valuable.

There’s a world where Flip, as a top 5 recruit, is “worthy” of a first round pick but bets on himself, that another year of college would dramatically increase his stock. Perhaps he thinks he can go from a late 1st to a lottery pick. And maybe he’s the type of guy who is willing to be patient. In that case, I don’t think a top 5 recruit ranking is a miss just because it took him an extra year to live up to that expectation.

Note that I am not saying this is likely- just that it’s in the range of outcomes.

[MChambers]

There’s a world where Flip, as a top 5 recruit, is “worthy” of a first round pick but bets on himself, that another year of college would dramatically increase his stock. Perhaps he thinks he can go from a late 1st to a lottery pick. And maybe he’s the type of guy who is willing to be patient. In that case, I don’t think a top 5 recruit ranking is a miss just because it took him an extra year to live up to that expectation.

Note that I am not saying this is likely- just that it’s in the range of outcomes.

Perhaps, but that world may be somewhere in the multi-verse. I'll concede that there is some slight chance that Filipowski will return for a second season, but I am not going to consider it a realistic possibility until next April.

[CDu]

Flip turned my head watching him play FIBA 3v3.

Here's last summer's gold medal game where he played on the US Team with Grady Dick (Kansas), Keyonte George (Baylor) and Eric Daley Jr. (current senior at IMG, a 4 star I believe)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpY2Z6Lho6E

Regardless of his defense, which is hard to judge in this setting, I think his offensive skill set is too valuable for him to not get a ton of PT.

I hope his other games in the tournament were more impressive, because I didn’t see much to impress on offense out of that clip. He feasted on posting up littles (looked like their tallest guy was 6’5” or 6’6”) and putbacks. The overall quality of play in that final was pretty rough.

That isn’t to say I think he is bad. I just remain agnostic. His highlight tape from high school looks great, but his all star game tape and limited clips from Duke don’t. So I really don’t know what to expect from him at this point.

[Kedsy]

I think you guys are way, way too focused on the wonders of the RSCI rating. Not all #4s are created equal, they actually have different characteristics which may determine how long they'll be in college. But I've been lectured on how wrong I am, so carry on.

Not all #4s are created equal, but the last top four recruit of any kind who stayed more than one year in college graduated high school in 2012.

[scottdude8]

Perhaps, but that world may be somewhere in the multi-verse. I'll concede that there is some slight chance that Filipowski will return for a second season, but I am not going to consider it a realistic possibility until next April.

One could argue that the implementation of NIL has moved us somewhere else in the multi-verse than we were just two years ago, though. And Duke is clearly going all-in on NIL under Coach Scheyer and Rachel Baker's leadership. I truly believe that is changing the calculus behind these decisions, and some time soon will cause some (for once good) surprises. Maybe it starts with Kyle, maybe not. But if Kyle is projected as, say, a late first round pick likely to spend time in the G-League, maybe he'd prefer to make 500k in NIL playing at Duke as opposed to 7 figures spending at least part of his time in G-League gyms.

[budwom]

Not all #4s are created equal, but the last top four recruit of any kind who stayed more than one year in college graduated high school in 2012.

I get the quantsplaining, I really do I just don’t agree.

[DukieTiger]

Not all #4s are created equal, but the last top four recruit of any kind who stayed more than one year in college graduated high school in 2012.

1 out of 40? I’ll take those odds in a pie bet :-D

[DukieTiger]

Perhaps, but that world may be somewhere in the multi-verse. I'll concede that there is some slight chance that Filipowski will return for a second season, but I am not going to consider it a realistic possibility until next April.

I only looked back to 2015 but if you detach yourself from the “top 4” designation and look at top 10ish recruits, you don’t have to search the multiverse to find precedent.

Quinten Grimes (3)
Scottie Lewis (2)
Miles Bridges (2)
Malik Newman (3)
Ivan Rabb (2)
Marques Bolden (3)
Charles Bassey (3)
EJ Montgomery (3)
Matt Hurt (2)

Again, not saying it’s likely. Just a gentle push back on the multiverse comment