2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[jimsumner]

I agree with this. I think of the players in certain buckets, including gone for sure (seniors and one-and-dones), likely gone (potential pros), 50/50 (could go pro, could return), and program guys (multi-year players that hopefully don't transfer).

Bucket 1: Gone for sure - Jacob Grandison (5th year senior/grad transfer), Dariq Whitehead (OAD), and Dereck Lively (OAD)
Bucket 2: Likely gone - Jeremy Roach (could go pro if things work out, but it's no done deal) and Kyle Filipowski (could be more of a Matthew Hurt than a Wendell Carter, Jr.)
Bucket 3: 50/50 - Kale Catchings (has 2 more years of eligibility, but maybe he only stays 1 year?), Ryan Young (same as Catchings), Mark Mitchell (same as Flip, but more 50/50 based on recruiting profile alone) and Tyrese Proctor (similar boat as Flip and Mitchell but with the added uncertainty of him being an international prospect and more "mysterious")
Bucket 4: Program guys - Jaylen Blakes, Jaden Schutt, Christian Reeves (all young, could get playing time this season - except Reeves, if he takes a redshirt year - but should see expanded roles down the line if they don't transfer)

We know that Duke has received a commitment from PG Caleb Foster, SG Jared McCain, SF Mackenzie Mgbako, and PF Sean Stewart. Offers have been made to F/C Xavier Booker and JP Estrella.

At a minimum, Duke will probably have the following:

PG: JR Blakes, FR Foster
SG: SO Schutt, FR McCain
SF: FR Mgbako, GR-SR Catchings (maybe?)
PF: FR Stewart
C: GR-SR Young (maybe?), RS-FR Reeves (assuming he redshirts)



The other issue is Roach, who has 2 more years of eligibility.

Technically, Roach has three more years of eligibility, counting the COVID year. I would be mucho surprised to see that actually be more than a technicality. But it is there.

As an aside, Roach is the only member of Duke's 2020-'21 team still in the program. An almost 100 percent turnover over the course of two seasons.

[Truth&Justise]

As an aside, Roach is the only member of Duke's 2020-'21 team still in the program. An almost 100 percent turnover over the course of two seasons.

Normally that would be alarming, but I'm happy to leave the 2020-21 season well in the rearview mirror.

[HayYou]

Normally that would be alarming, but I'm happy to leave the 2020-21 season well in the rearview mirror.

Doesn't that say something that almost all the members of a team that had terrible results are now gone, and most to the pros in some capacity.

[JasonEvans]

Doesn't that say something that almost all the members of a team that had terrible results are now gone, and most to the pros in some capacity.

"Most" to the pros?!?

Turned professional: Hurt, Steward, Moore, Williams, Johnson (worth noting that none of them have been anywhere close to successful professionals yet. Williams would seem to have the best shot at that)
Left the program: Goldwire, Brakefield, Baker, Coleman, Tape
Still here: Roach

[DavidBenAkiva]

Technically, Roach has three more years of eligibility, counting the COVID year. I would be mucho surprised to see that actually be more than a technicality. But it is there.

As an aside, Roach is the only member of Duke's 2020-'21 team still in the program. An almost 100 percent turnover over the course of two seasons.

I should have been more clear that Roach will have 2 more years of eligibility entering the 2023-24 season.

[DavidBenAkiva]

"Most" to the pros?!?

Turned professional: Hurt, Steward, Moore, Williams, Johnson (worth noting that none of them have been anywhere close to successful professionals yet. Williams would seem to have the best shot at that)
Left the program: Goldwire, Brakefield, Baker, Coleman, Tape
Still here: Roach

I think you're underselling Johnson a little. He was a 1st round draft pick, has another guaranteed year for the 2022-23 season and then two team options through the 2024-25 season. The Hawks have a lot of money tied up in their core of Young, Hunter, Collins, Heurter, and Capella. Johnson played a good amount down the stretch for them and appears to factor into their future as a relatively cheap option with upside. I can understand saying that he isn't established yet or hasn't proven much, but he's has a reasonably successful position for a mid-to-late 1st rounder. If you look at the players drafted around him, Johnson has performed about as well as some others. I would just say that it's too soon to tell.

Steward, Hurt, and the transfers, those guys haven't demonstrated they are going to be mainstays in the NBA while Moore and Williams are TBD.

[HayYou]

"Most" to the pros?!?

Turned professional: Hurt, Steward, Moore, Williams, Johnson (worth noting that none of them have been anywhere close to successful professionals yet. Williams would seem to have the best shot at that)
Left the program: Goldwire, Brakefield, Baker, Coleman, Tape
Still here: Roach

I misspoke. Most of the serious contributors left the program for some sort of pro capacity. We had a few players that play larger roles than they should have based on their own talent. They only played as much as they did for Duke that year because we had no better options.

Even so, the word MOST in my original post is doing a lot of heavy lifting, I admit.

Goldwire went to a program, that didn't do great as a team, but Goldwire got to play serious minutes. That wasn't going to happen at Duke last year. Roach and Moore and Keels were just too talented. Goldwire's minutes would have been seriously constricted. He wanted to play big minutes, and he did. Coleman wouldn't have seriously seen the court this past year behind Paolo and Williams, nor much more than that NEXT year behind Flip, Lively, and Mithell plus the rest of our transfers.

Most of the best, or, at the least, the MOST TALENTED, players on a bad team left for the pros in some capacity. Outside of Roach, every single player who has serious pro potential, and not just the NBA but overseas pro leagues, is gone. Only Coleman has even an outside chance of playing pro ball somewhere, and his only real chance to achieve that was to go somewhere that will allow him to play a lot, even if he struggles, to get better. He's one of those guys, who, as a senior, teams like Duke and UK wish we had. But we don't really have the patience to endure the first 2 years oh his career wherein he plays a lot, and not that well. Not badly, just a lot of minutes relative to the positive contributions he makes in the box score. And that on a team that struggles to make the NCAAT. As a Jr, guys like that are decent starters on mediocre teams. Not bad teams, just mediocre teams that make the NCAAT with plenty of room to spare, but don't win their Conf, reg season or tourney, and make the NCAAT as somewhere between a 10 and 5 seed, and barely make the Sweet 16 (if that), and lose handily once there. As seniors, guys like Coleman tend to be very good starters on very dangerous teams. Not necessarily top 10 teams, but teams that take down a few top teams over the season and that no one wants to play come March.

That senior version is a guy we all drool over and lament our lack of. But we only want that Sr (and possibly Jr version, but only off the bench) version. We don't want the first 2-3 years of his career were he isn't a great contributor on bad teams. But guys like that are only great players as upperclassmen BECAUSE they got to play through their struggles as underclassmen. We Duke fans are unwilling to accept the bad years as a trade off for the good years. We sort of lie to ourselves that we'd be OK with the developmental years, but that isn't true. We only want the finished product.

So, I'm OK with my OG statement. MOST of the serious contributors on 21 left for the pros. Goldwire played a lot, but I really feel he saw that his minutes would plummet on a better team, and Coleman was much the same.

My underlying point was that kids with serious pro talent don't last very long in college.

[cbolden1]

I think you're underselling Johnson a little. He was a 1st round draft pick, has another guaranteed year for the 2022-23 season and then two team options through the 2024-25 season. The Hawks have a lot of money tied up in their core of Young, Hunter, Collins, Heurter, and Capella. Johnson played a good amount down the stretch for them and appears to factor into their future as a relatively cheap option with upside. I can understand saying that he isn't established yet or hasn't proven much, but he's has a reasonably successful position for a mid-to-late 1st rounder. If you look at the players drafted around him, Johnson has performed about as well as some others. I would just say that it's too soon to tell.

Steward, Hurt, and the transfers, those guys haven't demonstrated they are going to be mainstays in the NBA while Moore and Williams are TBD.

ATL has also been looking at trading Collin, Capela, and Huerter along with their picks looking to move up in the lotto or get gobert and that may open time for JJ if it happens

[HayYou]

Rivals has a positional rankings discussion up, and I found the SF bit to be interesting. They are high on Buzelis (sp), a player we were seemingly after. He's higher now than our own top SF commit (our guy has the highest upside, for whatever that is worth according to them).

But they talk about how the Gleague is a serious threat wrt him. Given the talk there, as well as whispers (alert: Rumor-mongering) from some twitter guys I think are plugged in well on the grass roots recruiting level, I think Buzelis might pull a Sharpe. As in a reclass, or graduation at Christmas, a quick trip to a Gleague or similar for a semester, and then entry into the 23 draft without ever playing a minute of college ball. As the only possible unicorn in the class, or in the last 2 classes (HS class of 22 didn't really have one), he might find his way into the top 5. Without having seen a lot of him play, or the current HS class (22 aka this year's frosh) for that matter, I feel there is a strong chance that Buz is a top 10 pick, and probably closer to 5 than 10, following that path.

Or he could play out his HS year, go to college (I think FSU is surprisingly strong there) and dominate and be conventional.

Or any of like 5 other options (he said, OBVIOUSLY exaggerating the number of other options in order to make a point).

Point being, I was surprised we sort of backed off a guy that I think we had a great chance at. Especially since it seemed like we went after Stewart instead (though Buz is listed as a SF, he probably plays more PF, in college, albeit as a cross between Hurt and Chet). Regardless of Stewart relative to Buz, which I'll address shortly, I understand Jon's thinking now.

Buz, who could be an elite college player as a OAD, is too uncertain. A team could go hard on him (phrasing), forgoing another player, only to have Buz do a crazy ivan at some point between now and Christmas and never play a minute of college ball. The ONE THING I feel certain he won't do is reclassify to play college ball in 22-23 (which wouldn't help Duke anyway). Maybe reclass at Christmas and play a semester before going pro, but that would likely be to join some team that had lost a key player, and would feature him starting in January when he would join the team, or a team that was underachieving and needed a SF desperately. Regardless, I think that to be pretty unlikely. Joining a college team this fall is something I would put at Zero odds of happening.

He is starting to really consider pro options, and I'm not sure NIL would overcome it. He'd do nearly as well with early endorsements and G league money, while not really exposing himself to unwelcome scrutiny.

The uncertainty there is just not worth the effort. Much less the opportunity costs.

Stewart might end up being Jon's savviest move wrt recruiting for several years. He might be an ideal college player. As in, a guy that can contribute, significantly, at the college level immediately, but who has just enough negatives that some decent NIL money can keep him in college for a few years. At 6-8ish, and 200ish lbs, he's undersized for NBA PF. And he's not skilled enough for SF at college, much less the NBA. Which is fine. Top end (but not elite) athletes, who are a little undersized, eventually have solid careers in the NBA. Looney is making good money and winning titles with GSW, and he's sort of what I'd project out for Stewart. But Looney was seen as a reach by the GSW when they drafted him, but in retrospect we now know that they were looking for a specific set of attributes, and its worked out well for them. It was a gamble by Looney, and we've seen similar gambles not work out for guys with similar profiles.

Point being, Stewart might be a guy who spends 2-3 years in college, with the last of those years being elite. Next year, a frosh, he's probably 6-8+ and 210-215 while being an upper tier athlete. But he's likely to be more aggressive than many other players, which will offset a relative lack of ideal size and skill. The next year, probably closer to 220-230, with improved skill, along with the aggression. Guys like that EXCELL in college. And if the skill isn't quite there, he might feel better about returning to college for year, getting his 3 ball up into the low to mid 30 percent range. AKA the preseason CPOY while being on the shortlist for NPOY.

Buz might, and probably will be a better, if not much better, player in year 1. But he's a surefire OAD, if he ever plays in college. Stewart is much more likely to spend more than 1 year in college, and I feel that Soph Stewart will be a more impactful player than OAD Buz.

[Kedsy]

That senior version is a guy we all drool over and lament our lack of. But we only want that Sr (and possibly Jr version, but only off the bench) version. We don't want the first 2-3 years of his career were he isn't a great contributor on bad teams. But guys like that are only great players as upperclassmen BECAUSE they got to play through their struggles as underclassmen. We Duke fans are unwilling to accept the bad years as a trade off for the good years. We sort of lie to ourselves that we'd be OK with the developmental years, but that isn't true. We only want the finished product.

I don't know if the bolded statement is necessarily true (I'm not saying it isn't true; I just don't know). Even if it isn't, the fact is that in today's world if you don't give these players good minutes as underclassmen they'll probably transfer out, so it might not matter if the bolded is true.

But especially if it is true, I agree with the above statement. It's an insightful rejoinder to those who want us to build a team filled with this type of player.

[HayYou]

ATL has also been looking at trading Collin, Capela, and Huerter along with their picks looking to move up in the lotto or get gobert and that may open time for JJ if it happens

They've seen the ceiling with the current squad. Collin is a low level malcontent, and bad fit, alongside Trey. Huerter is just another version of a player whom they've got a couple of (and 2-3 approximate level guys are available in every single draft class), and Capela just isn't the guy people thought he was when he's not alongside MVP level Harden. The current ATL roster's absolute ceiling is the Conf finals, and a bunch of stuff (aka injuries to other teams) has to go right for them to get that far.

Trey is another guy I'd love to see Williams play with, and I always felt that Johnson and Williams would fit.

[cbolden1]

They've seen the ceiling with the current squad. Collin is a low level malcontent, and bad fit, alongside Trey. Huerter is just another version of a player whom they've got a couple of (and 2-3 approximate level guys are available in every single draft class), and Capela just isn't the guy people thought he was when he's not alongside MVP level Harden. The current ATL roster's absolute ceiling is the Conf finals, and a bunch of stuff (aka injuries to other teams) has to go right for them to get that far.

Trey is another guy I'd love to see Williams play with, and I always felt that Johnson and Williams would fit.

Only part I really disagree with. I don't think he's a Malcontent I think he just upset his role isn't bigger. I think players like Trae Luka Lebron Harden can be hard to play with other stars who want the ball a little as the monopolize the ball. Some players just want more especially young players (ex young Kyrie with lebron) they want to show everything they can do instead of playing a role( ex. Turner when Sabonis was with the pacers)

[DavidBenAkiva]

We Duke fans are unwilling to accept the bad years as a trade off for the good years. We sort of lie to ourselves that we'd be OK with the developmental years, but that isn't true. We only want the finished product.

Maybe YOU feel this way, but I don't and I feel fairly confident that a lot of the people on this board don't feel this way, either.

The fact of the matter is that the "finished product" of these players happens when they turn 27 years old. None of the guys that play in college are finished. That's not the point of college basketball. We're ONLY getting developmental years.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Class of 2023 commit Sean Stewart made the roster for the U17 USA Basketball Junior National Team. He will be on the roster with Class of 2024 recruit Ian Jackson and Class of 2025's Cooper Flagg.

[scottdude8]

Class of 2023 commit Sean Stewart made the roster for the U17 USA Basketball Junior National Team. He will be on the roster with Class of 2024 recruit Ian Jackson and Class of 2025's Cooper Flagg.

Wow, the fact that Flagg made that team as a 15 year old says a WHOLE lot about his game. He's said Duke is his dream school on multiple occasions, and has a Duke offer... I think it's time for The Terminator to lock that down.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Wow, the fact that Flagg made that team as a 15 year old says a WHOLE lot about his game. He's said Duke is his dream school on multiple occasions, and has a Duke offer... I think it's time for The Terminator to lock that down.

I think he is just waiting to see whether the coaches will fulfill the final test - an in-home visit in Maine in the middle of winter. That is a true sign of commitment.

[budwom]

I think he is just waiting to see whether the coaches will fulfill the final test - an in-home visit in Maine in the middle of winter. That is a true sign of commitment.

I've told the staff they can use my house for changing dog teams as they trudge onward to Maine.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I've told the staff they can use my house for changing dog teams as they trudge onward to Maine.

My son leaves for camp very close to Chez Flagg in a few days and I will be up there in August to pick him up (him being my son, not Cooper Flagg).

I was curious to learn more about him so did some googling and found this article. He apparently has a twin brother Ace who is pretty good and an older brother Hunter. Both of his parents played college ball. I did the math and some further googling and I think his mom played for Coach P at Maine. Make of that what you wish.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2022/03...-flagg-family/

[DoubleBlue]

My son leaves for camp very close to Chez Flagg in a few days and I will be up there in August to pick him up (him being my son, not Cooper Flagg).

I was curious to learn more about him so did some googling and found this article. He apparently has a twin brother Ace who is pretty good and an older brother Hunter. Both of his parents played college ball. I did the math and some further googling and I think his mom played for Coach P at Maine. Make of that what you wish.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2022/03...-flagg-family/

Some obvious similarities to the Plumlee brood.

[UrinalCake]

@HayYou - wrt Buzelis I think we chose to target Stewart and Mgbako and were even going after GG Jackson and had some momentum there for a while, plus there's a chance Mark Mitchell is back as a sophomore and even a very small chance Flip returns. So we're pretty loaded at the 4 spot and we can't land everyone. Jon's strategy has been very clear and follows in K's mold - identify the targets early in the process, make them a priority, construct a team and sell them on the vision of how they would fit well together. It has led to an extraordinary hit rate, but the flip side is there may be other guys that come on strong late and other programs that use more of a shotgun approach could offer them all. I suppose if Mgbako had chosen to go elsewhere then we likely would have pivoted to Buzelis or someone else, but it all worked out for us.