2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[CDu]

All valid points, although IIRC Hurt and Steward made their decisions before the NIL rules were finalized and official, so I'm not sure if they count as data points. If Keels does indeed go pro, I agree that would be a major point against NIL benefitting us.

Yes, Hurt and Steward left before NIL became officially approved. Which is why I said the prospect of it and in parentheses said it wasn't yet approved. But there were very strong indications that it was going to happen. I'm sure the staff made everyone aware of the likelihood that NIL was coming. I'd be shocked if those guys didn't have a very strong indication that getting money while in school was going to be a legal option for them.

My gut feeling is that we may not benefit from NIL in the short term, but will in the long term. In the short term, with things as unregulated as they are, teams can not so subtly pay for play (i.e. Nigel Pack and Miami). Eventually the NCAA will probably at least try to make that harder to do. When that happens, the appeal of the Duke brand will be more of a factor in someone's potential NIL earnings than individual donors, I think. There'll be a lot of change over the next few years on this though, so it's impossible to predict.

My suspicion is that Duke isn't going to be helped or hurt by NIL, unless the team changes its recruiting strategy entirely. As long as we are seen as the premier one-and-done factory, we'll keep landing elite recruits. And those guys are gonna get paid wherever they play. But by that same token, as long as we're going to get elite recruits, we're not likely to shed the one-and-done factory label. And as such, I don't think NIL is going to make much difference in keeping those elite high schoolers who are borderline pro prospects returning.

If we - for whatever reason - see a change in recruiting such that we're not seen as a one-and-done factory, then NIL might be able to help. That's what we're seeing at UNC. Of course, UNC never really had a problem getting borderline guys to stay anyway, but now they are well positioned to keep those just-below-the-NBA-radar guys happily in Chapel Hill. If Duke starts landing recruits more in the 25-75 range like UNC has done for the most part, then NIL will probably help us as long as we stay an elite program.

But all the evidence so far suggests NIL isn't affecting Duke guys' decisions to go or stay. It seems to be a non-factor, neither positive nor negative. Even if Keels returns, it would seem to be driven entirely by the draft process going against him rather than because he had the NIL opportunity. Everything we're hearing suggests he's emotionally all-in on the idea of going pro; the NIL is just an afterthought if the feedback remains negative enough to force him to return.

Maybe things will change with time, but I suspect that the NIL will be neither a positive nor a negative for Duke anytime soon.

[budwom]

I'm personally not holding out much hope for a Year 2 of Flip unless something about his game just doesn't translate to the NBA level... we all know how rare it is for a Top 5 level prospect to be in college more than a year. Maybe NIL plays a role here, who knows.

Mitchell is the key for me. It would be huge for the 2023-24 team to have him as a sophomore, likely having played big minutes off the bench as a freshman, to lead the squad. That said, if he plays himself into a NBA prospect in Year 1, likely coming mostly off the bench, that means we likely had a very fun 2022-23.

I have absolutely no idea what will happen, but I do think the class ranking of our guys can skew our perception, because this is NOT an especially strong overall 2022 high school class...Filipowski may well deserve his top 5 ranking, but the talent in this class is not especially strong, making a return possibly (emphasis) more likely.

[Kedsy]

I should also add that Scheyer seems to be recruiting and stocking the roster in a way that indicates he will "spread the wealth" with his playing time more than K did. We won't know until we see competitive games this coming season, but it sure looks like he is seeking a roster with at least 8-10 guys who deserve some minutes every game.

You keep saying this, but there's no evidence of it yet. It's certainly not true regarding the 2022-23 team, on which the 7th to 10th guys are (on paper) actually a fair amount weaker than almost all of Coach K's teams.

[Kedsy]

I have absolutely no idea what will happen, but I do think the class ranking of our guys can skew our perception, because this is NOT an especially strong overall 2022 high school class...Filipowski may well deserve his top 5 ranking, but the talent in this class is not especially strong, making a return possibly (emphasis) more likely.

Some classes are stronger and some are weaker, but top 5 guys almost always go. So unless the 2022 class is historically weak (like, by far the weakest of the past 15 years kind of weak), the chances of Filipowski returning seem very, very low.

[budwom]

Some classes are stronger and some are weaker, but top 5 guys almost always go. So unless the 2022 class is historically weak (like, by far the weakest of the past 15 years kind of weak), the chances of Filipowski returning seem very, very low.

I hear you, but I think this one is worth a pie. I do not see his game as translating to the NBA particularly quickly. Let's see how well he shoots the ball, I hope I'm wrong. My personal belief is that he is lacking the typical top 5 athleticism one usually finds in a class. Thrilled to be wrong about this.

[proelitedota]

Commits

No. 6 SF Mackenzie Mgbako (Previous Rank #3)
No. 9 PF Sean Stewart (#26)
No. 11 PG Tyrese Proctor (#9)
No. 19 PG Caleb Foster (#13)
No. 32 SG Jared McCain (#34)

Recruits

No. 4 PF Xavier Booker (#91)
No. 23 C Ugonna Kingsley (Unranked)
No. 67 C JP Estrella (Unranked)

Sean Stewart's jump is nice to see. Love to see him at the small ball 5.

[CDu]

You keep saying this, but there's no evidence of it yet. It's certainly not true regarding the 2022-23 team, on which the 7th to 10th guys are (on paper) actually a fair amount weaker than almost all of Coach K's teams.

Yes, assuming we don't get Keels or Green, and somewhat contingent on how useful Young and Schutt are (though certainly Schutt's recruiting profile doesn't suggest he's a standout for an 8th or 9th man at Duke as a freshman). And to be fair, he might have thought he'd have Baker, which would on paper improve the profile of the 8th man (if Keels or Green is the starting SG).

But I agree: we don't have any evidence YET that Scheyer is trying to build a deeper, more balanced team than Coach K.

[Kedsy]

I hear you, but I think this one is worth a pie. I do not see his game as translating to the NBA particularly quickly. Let's see how well he shoots the ball, I hope I'm wrong. My personal belief is that he is lacking the typical top 5 athleticism one usually finds in a class. Thrilled to be wrong about this.

Ah, well that's kind of a different argument. How much have you seen him play? The only things I've seen were the U18 3-on-3 tournament and some highlights clips, and he seemed sufficiently athletic for his size in both.

[Kedsy]

Yes, assuming we don't get Keels or Green, and somewhat contingent on how useful Young and Schutt are (though certainly Schutt's recruiting profile doesn't suggest he's a standout for an 8th or 9th man at Duke as a freshman). And to be fair, he might have thought he'd have Baker, which would on paper improve the profile of the 8th man (if Keels or Green is the starting SG).

But I agree: we don't have any evidence YET that Scheyer is trying to build a deeper, more balanced team than Coach K.

Even if we do get Keels or Green, our top six would be Roach, Keels/Green, Whitehead, Filipowski, Lively, Mitchell. Our 7th to 10th guys would be a freshman 60ish recruit, a guy who didn't start at Northwestern, a mid-level Ivy League player and a sophomore who was unranked out of high school and who played less than a 100 minutes as a freshman. Unless I'm missing someone? That's probably the weakest 7th to 10th Duke has had since 1982 (and if not weakest then certainly bottom five).

[HayYou]

I have absolutely no idea what will happen, but I do think the class ranking of our guys can skew our perception, because this is NOT an especially strong overall 2022 high school class...Filipowski may well deserve his top 5 ranking, but the talent in this class is not especially strong, making a return possibly (emphasis) more likely.

The class isn't strong because three of the top 10 players in the class left the class early.

But the relative weakness of the class has no impact on anyone other than schools, like, you know, DUKE, that rely on several of the kids to play well.

2 of the 3 kids that left the class will be draft eligible this year. Only 1, Bates, is still competing for draft slots. This will be one of the last years for super seniors, and it is pretty apparent that the NBA places low value on these guys.

Flip might be worse than most lottery picks in a normal year. But that doesn't matter NEXT YEAR. A team drafting 7th has to make a pick, and give that pick a 4 year guaranteed contract. Now, that team can trade the pick, but SOME team will draft 7th and hand that pick the after mentioned 4 year deal. And the original owner of the pick has to find someone who wants it.

Regardless of the strength or weakness of any given class, there will be 30 picks next year. Teams can't decline to make a selection (this feature, if allowed, would come close to "fixing" early entry as there would only be 20-25 guaranteed picks a year). So kids gamble that they'll be picked. Flip doesn't have to be better than a usual top 20 pick. He just has to be one of the top 30 picks NEXT year. The HS class is weak, but so is the returning group of college players.

Last year's NPOY, and the should have won the ACC POY, both figure to be among the better NBA prospects next year, outside of frosh. And NO ON WANTS TO PICK EITHER PLAYER.

Flip has a great chance to go early. This is the inverse of Mitchell going pro. If Flip isn't a borderline lottery pick next year, Duke will have had a disappointing season.

[budwom]

Ah, well that's kind of a different argument. How much have you seen him play? The only things I've seen were the U18 3-on-3 tournament and some highlights clips, and he seemed sufficiently athletic for his size in both.

Not sure how different the argument is. If he doesn't establish himself as a dependable shooter, I think his chances of returning are reasonably high, that's all. I've seen him play twice...

[JasonEvans]

Even if we do get Keels or Green, our top six would be Roach, Keels/Green, Whitehead, Filipowski, Lively, Mitchell. Our 7th to 10th guys would be a freshman 60ish recruit, a guy who didn't start at Northwestern, a mid-level Ivy League player and a sophomore who was unranked out of high school and who played less than a 100 minutes as a freshman. Unless I'm missing someone? That's probably the weakest 7th to 10th Duke has had since 1982 (and if not weakest then certainly bottom five).

Alternately --

Our 7th to 10th guys would be a freshman considered the best outside shooter in the class; a guy who averaged almost 10ppg despite playing only 17 mpg (and did it against top tier Big Ten competition); an experienced and savvy wing who was a starter at a mid-major; and a sophomore who was a top 100 out of high school who spent his freshman year battling all season against future NBAers in practice.

It is all how you want to spin it

I've also heard from folks close to the program that Scheyer wants to use his bench more than K did. But, we are all playing a waiting game to see how the Coach J Blue Devils will differ from the Coach K ones.

[JasonEvans]

Kyle Filipowski in 2023 mock drafts:

NBADraft.net - not listed in either first or second round
NBA Draft Room - #24
ESPN - #13

Mark Mitchell in 2023 mock drafts:

NBADraft.net - not listed in either first or second round
NBA Draft Room - #37
ESPN - not listed, only doing a first round mock

Based on those assessments, I'd say it is more likely than not that Kyle will be OAD, but it is far from a sure thing. I would say Mitchell is more likely than not to come back to Duke and it will take a surprising year for him to elevate to being a OAD.

-Jason "I would say the case for both of them turning pro is a case where they both have better than expected seasons... if that happens, we will just have to live with the results " Evans

[KKDL19]

Y'all are missing the true reasons both Hurt and Steward left...

Hurt wanted to be OAD, but he returned (just like M Williams did this year) to show he improved on those things. he told the staff that he would enter the draft after his Soph season. He had a very good Soph season. His goal all along, even during the recruiting process was to get to the league as soon as possible.

Steward, much like Keels, had the dream of being OAD. Once he made the decision to enter the draft, he was not going to return to Duke.

So any speculation of discussion of "IF" either would have come back the following year is a moot point. The Duke staff knew that once the players intentions were made public that ended their Duke careers.

[CDu]

Y'all are missing the true reasons both Hurt and Steward left...

Hurt wanted to be OAD, but he returned (just like M Williams did this year) to show he improved on those things. he told the staff that he would enter the draft after his Soph season. He had a very good Soph season. His goal all along, even during the recruiting process was to get to the league as soon as possible.

Steward, much like Keels, had the dream of being OAD. Once he made the decision to enter the draft, he was not going to return to Duke.

So any speculation of discussion of "IF" either would have come back the following year is a moot point. The Duke staff knew that once the players intentions were made public that ended their Duke careers.

I don't think anyone is missing those points, actually. Any discussion of "if" was purely hypothetical (in the case of Steward, as it relates to Keels' recruitment).

[scottdude8]

Y'all are missing the true reasons both Hurt and Steward left...

Hurt wanted to be OAD, but he returned (just like M Williams did this year) to show he improved on those things. he told the staff that he would enter the draft after his Soph season. He had a very good Soph season. His goal all along, even during the recruiting process was to get to the league as soon as possible.

Steward, much like Keels, had the dream of being OAD. Once he made the decision to enter the draft, he was not going to return to Duke.

So any speculation of discussion of "IF" either would have come back the following year is a moot point. The Duke staff knew that once the players intentions were made public that ended their Duke careers.

So I don't think anyone was arguing that either Hurt or Steward had a possibility of returning after they declared... both made it quite clear they weren't "testing the waters". The discussion was about whether their decision making process might've been influenced by the potential for NIL income had that rule been established prior to their decisions.

Also, I feel obligated to once again ask, how do you know with such certainty what Hurt's thought process was? How do you know what he told the staff? If you're going to say something so bold with such certainty, you need to tell us how you know it. If you're guessing/speculating, you need to say so as well. Otherwise the rumor mongering police are going to come a-knocking.

[KKDL19]

With how Scheyer is recruiting, it does look as if he will use a deep bench than K.

I have also heard that Scheyer would like to have players that he can use in situational needs. I think the make up the roster is starting to reflect that more and more. K played the guys he had confidence in, but when the team needed shooting he went to Joey some but Bates Jones not so much. I'm not saying K didn't use the bench but in my opinion, maybe under utilized players at times.

I think we will see Scheyer go to Young for scoring in the post, Catchings for stretching the floor as a 3/4 and defending and Blakes for more of a JGold role. Schutt, i think will be in the constant rotation because he adds that shooting aspect that the team doesn't have.

[KKDL19]

Hurt's dad made reference to Matthew only staying one more year at Duke ( not in those exact terms) in some of the articles prior to his Soph more season. Hurt received the feedback, as all Duke players do, in regard to his NBA draftability, thus he worked on adding strength in the off season. I don't think its far fetched to understand what was going on. Remember that Mathew Hurt was highly rated and his plans all along where to be OAD.

It is by believe from the recruiting gurus twitter post and podcasts that both Hurt and Steward had their eyes on the NBA and that nothing would have really made that much of an impact on them to alter their decision.

[Kedsy]

Alternately --

Our 7th to 10th guys would be a freshman considered the best outside shooter in the class; a guy who averaged almost 10ppg despite playing only 17 mpg (and did it against top tier Big Ten competition); an experienced and savvy wing who was a starter at a mid-major; and a sophomore who was a top 100 out of high school who spent his freshman year battling all season against future NBAers in practice.

It is all how you want to spin it

I've also heard from folks close to the program that Scheyer wants to use his bench more than K did. But, we are all playing a waiting game to see how the Coach J Blue Devils will differ from the Coach K ones.

It's very possible Coach Scheyer wants to use his bench more (I hope he does). That's a different discussion. But you can spin it however you want and this year's bench is (on paper) inferior to pretty much all Duke benches of the past 40 years.

Joey Baker was considered a superb shooter out of high school too, and was ranked considerably better than Jaden Schutt. If Jaden really is that good a shooter, the people who rank high school players must think he has a ton of flaws since they didn't rate him higher (maybe they're right and maybe they're wrong, I'm talking about "on paper"). Ryan Young couldn't start on the 10th best team in the Big 10, and by the way only scored 7.7 ppg in Big 10 play last season (also 17 mpg). There's no statistical basis to think he'll be better than former Duke bench player Chase Jeter (and on paper, Jeter as the #14 recruit out of high school had more potential), or even Sean Obi, who in his season prior to coming to Duke, averaged 11 and 9 and was the 3rd-best defensive rebounder in the country. I'm pretty sure the Ivy League is considered low-major (not mid-major), and Kale Catching's Harvard numbers were not as strong as Patrick Tapé's at Columbia. And Jaylen Blakes was not top 100 in either the RSCI or the 247 Composite, so maybe he's Jordan Goldwire or Tyler Thornton or maybe he's Andre Buckner. No way to know at this point, but no reason to think he's ready for more than spot minutes, either.

Look, all four of these guys may end up being big contributors and delightful additions to the Duke family. But if they are big contributors they will have exceeded expectations. Based on what we know of their past performance, this bench does not stand up to most Coach K benches, which usually included at least one or two top 35 guys and usually had guys who had played two or three years "battling against future NBAers in practice." It certainly does not contain more guys "deserving of minutes" than other Duke benches of the past several decades.

[HayYou]

It's very possible Coach Scheyer wants to use his bench more (I hope he does). That's a different discussion. But you can spin it however you want and this year's bench is (on paper) inferior to pretty much all Duke benches of the past 40 years.

Joey Baker was considered a superb shooter out of high school too, and was ranked considerably better than Jaden Schutt. If Jaden really is that good a shooter, the people who rank high school players must think he has a ton of flaws since they didn't rate him higher (maybe they're right and maybe they're wrong, I'm talking about "on paper"). Ryan Young couldn't start on the 10th best team in the Big 10, and by the way only scored 7.7 ppg in Big 10 play last season (also 17 mpg). There's no statistical basis to think he'll be better than former Duke bench player Chase Jeter (and on paper, Jeter as the #14 recruit out of high school had more potential), or even Sean Obi, who in his season prior to coming to Duke, averaged 11 and 9 and was the 3rd-best defensive rebounder in the country. I'm pretty sure the Ivy League is considered low-major (not mid-major), and Kale Catching's Harvard numbers were not as strong as Patrick Tapé's at Columbia. And Jaylen Blakes was not top 100 in either the RSCI or the 247 Composite, so maybe he's Jordan Goldwire or Tyler Thornton or maybe he's Andre Buckner. No way to know at this point, but no reason to think he's ready for more than spot minutes, either.

Look, all four of these guys may end up being big contributors and delightful additions to the Duke family. But if they are big contributors they will have exceeded expectations. Based on what we know of their past performance, this bench does not stand up to most Coach K benches, which usually included at least one or two top 35 guys and usually had guys who had played two or three years "battling against future NBAers in practice." It certainly does not contain more guys "deserving of minutes" than other Duke benches of the past several decades.

This. First, it is rare that a frosh is a "great" shooter right out of HS. They can be pretty good, but great, say 40% or better on a reasonable number of takes, say, 5+ per game, is rare. And fantastic.

But a kid can be a 35% FT shooter, which is very good in today's game, again, on a reasonable number of takes (I dismiss someone who shoots 40% on 1.5 attempts per game because that's just not enough shots to significantly impact a game) but not get meaningful PT.

If Schutt can't effectively guard next year, it is a problem. If he's not athletic or active enough to get open looks, it is a problem. There are any other number of reasons why he might not be able to earn minutes. I happen to think he'll contribute, but maybe he won't be able too. Expecting him to contribute is dicey.

I'd also add that Joey's play, and ranking, were wobbling a little prior to his reclassification. Had he stayed in his class, I expect that his ranking would have dipped, possibly below where Schutt's was/is.