2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[cbolden1]

Commits

No. 6 SF Mackenzie Mgbako (Previous Rank #3)
No. 9 PF Sean Stewart (#26)
No. 11 PG Tyrese Proctor (#9)
No. 19 PG Caleb Foster (#13)
No. 32 SG Jared McCain (#34)

Recruits

No. 4 PF Xavier Booker (#91)
No. 23 C Ugonna Kingsley (Unranked)
No. 67 C JP Estrella (Unranked)

[Truth&Justise]

Commits

No. 6 SF Mackenzie Mgbako (Previous Rank #3)
No. 9 PF Sean Stewart (#26)
No. 11 PG Tyrese Proctor (#9)
No. 19 PG Caleb Foster (#13)
No. 32 SG Jared McCain (#34)

Recruits

No. 4 PF Xavier Booker (#91)
No. 23 C Ugonna Kingsley (Unranked)
No. 67 C JP Estrella (Unranked)

HUGE jump for Xavier Booker from #91 to #4. Can't remember someone else making a jump that large entering their senior year. Really hope Jason's post about "Duke being the team to beat" for Booker is true!

Booker's big jump means a small drop for Mackenzie and Foster, but Sean Stewart also made a leap into the top 10. This is shaping up to be another really special recruiting class. Watch out for the Scheyer+Lucas combo!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Is the expectation that MacKenzie comes in as a Duke 3 or a Duke 4? Basically, is he Ingram/Tatum (NBA 3 playing the college 4) or a true NBA/college 3?

Cus if it's the former, I would assume this class is basically complete. If it's the latter, then there is opportunity to get another big man assuming Flip and Lively leave Duke at the end of next season.

[CDu]

Is the expectation that MacKenzie comes in as a Duke 3 or a Duke 4? Basically, is he Ingram/Tatum (NBA 3 playing the college 4) or a true NBA/college 3?

Cus if it's the former, I would assume this class is basically complete. If it's the latter, then there is opportunity to get another big man assuming Flip and Lively leave Duke at the end of next season.

I have no idea what the staff intends, but his game looks more like a PF game than a SF game to me.

But I doubt the class is complete. I would imagine they really want Booker.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I have no idea what the staff intends, but his game looks more like a PF game than a SF game to me.

But I doubt the class is complete. I would imagine they really want Booker.

Booker makes sense only if MacKenzie plays the 3. We already have Stewart, who looks like a top 10 player. Why would Booker come to Duke if MacKenzie is gonna play the 4 and there is already a top-10 big man who is gonna play the 5?

[CDu]

Booker makes sense only if MacKenzie plays the 3. We already have Stewart, who looks like a top 10 player. Why would Booker come to Duke if MacKenzie is gonna play the 4 and there is already a top-10 big man who is gonna play the 5?

I mean, you could say the same about us have two 5-star PGs and a 5-star SG in the class. If Mgbako is a 3, one of those other 5-stars comes off the bench.

And it is the exact same issue for this year’s class, with Mitchell likely coming off the bench despite being a 5-star because he is more a PF than SF.

[AGDukesky]

Admittedly I have not watched much 2023 recruit videos other than Duke prospects, but if there are five guys better than Mgbako then this class is loaded…

[JasonEvans]

Booker makes sense only if MacKenzie plays the 3. We already have Stewart, who looks like a top 10 player. Why would Booker come to Duke if MacKenzie is gonna play the 4 and there is already a top-10 big man who is gonna play the 5?

And you can add in the uncertainty about whether Flip or Mitchell will be in Durham (Lively is almost certainly turning pro, I think)... and who knows how quickly or slowly Reeves will develop and Ryan Young should be on his super senior year as well.

That said, Duke has always done an excellent job of getting minutes for elite talent. And bigs, especially, seem to be likely candidates to play few minutes as the wear and tear of all that banging (and foul trouble) lends itself to dudes playing 20-25 minutes per game, not the 30-35 we see from top end perimeter players.

It is still far too early to have a good sense of who will come back in 2023-24, but I absolutely see room for another big man in that recruiting class.

I should also add that Scheyer seems to be recruiting and stocking the roster in a way that indicates he will "spread the wealth" with his playing time more than K did. We won't know until we see competitive games this coming season, but it sure looks like he is seeking a roster with at least 8-10 guys who deserve some minutes every game.

[scottdude8]

And you can add in the uncertainty about whether Flip or Mitchell will be in Durham (Lively is almost certainly turning pro, I think)... and who knows how quickly or slowly Reeves will develop and Ryan Young should be on his super senior year as well.

That said, Duke has always done an excellent job of getting minutes for elite talent. And bigs, especially, seem to be likely candidates to play few minutes as the wear and tear of all that banging (and foul trouble) lends itself to dudes playing 20-25 minutes per game, not the 30-35 we see from top end perimeter players.

It is still far too early to have a good sense of who will come back in 2023-24, but I absolutely see room for another big man in that recruiting class.

I should also add that Scheyer seems to be recruiting and stocking the roster in a way that indicates he will "spread the wealth" with his playing time more than K did. We won't know until we see competitive games this coming season, but it sure looks like he is seeking a roster with at least 8-10 guys who deserve some minutes every game.

I'm personally not holding out much hope for a Year 2 of Flip unless something about his game just doesn't translate to the NBA level... we all know how rare it is for a Top 5 level prospect to be in college more than a year. Maybe NIL plays a role here, who knows.

Mitchell is the key for me. It would be huge for the 2023-24 team to have him as a sophomore, likely having played big minutes off the bench as a freshman, to lead the squad. That said, if he plays himself into a NBA prospect in Year 1, likely coming mostly off the bench, that means we likely had a very fun 2022-23.

[CDu]

I'm personally not holding out much hope for a Year 2 of Flip unless something about his game just doesn't translate to the NBA level... we all know how rare it is for a Top 5 level prospect to be in college more than a year. Maybe NIL plays a role here, who knows.

I agree on Filipowski.

Mitchell is the key for me. It would be huge for the 2023-24 team to have him as a sophomore, likely having played big minutes off the bench as a freshman, to lead the squad. That said, if he plays himself into a NBA prospect in Year 1, likely coming mostly off the bench, that means we likely had a very fun 2022-23.

It is obviously way too early, but I would guess that Mitchell is also unlikely to return. Mgbako plays the same position (and to a lesser degree Stewart overlaps as well).

[scottdude8]

It is obviously way too early, but I would guess that Mitchell is also unlikely to return. Mgbako plays the same position (and to a lesser degree Stewart overlaps as well).

I was having similar thoughts, to be honest. Perhaps Mitchell's reported versatility between the 3 and 4 could alleviate those concerns, but with Mgbako so highly rated and Stewart rising quickly it seems like both will merit starter's minutes. We still don't know how the new era of NIL will factor in though.

All that said, if Mitchell is a first round pick in 2023, I'll take that in a heartbeat since that likely means this coming season went VERY well.

[CDu]

I was having similar thoughts, to be honest. Perhaps Mitchell's reported versatility between the 3 and 4 could alleviate those concerns, but with Mgbako so highly rated and Stewart rising quickly it seems like both will merit starter's minutes. We still don't know how the new era of NIL will factor in though.

All that said, if Mitchell is a first round pick in 2023, I'll take that in a heartbeat since that likely means this coming season went VERY well.

Early returns haven’t suggested NIL is helping us. A guy like Keels should be the poster child for “NIL provides incentive for a borderline guy to return,” and yet everything so far suggests he is looking for every reason to stay in the draft. And the prospect of NIL (it wasn’t official yet but there were strong indications of it happening) didn’t convince two guys who weren’t getting drafted (Hurt and Steward) to return.

For better or for worse, we have created a recruiting image of a one-and-done factory. So while NIL may cushion the blow, it doesn’t appear to be influencing decisions for Duke. Especially when returning can put you at the mercy of facing a PT crunch with another stellar recruiting class coming in.

Maybe with time that will change. But I wouldn’t expect NIL to make much impact on our chances of getting guys like Mitchell to return (especially since there are studs coming in at his spot), at least not based on the early evidence. There is a mindset that these guys are coming in with that will be hard for NIL to sway.

[FastBreak]

Early returns haven’t suggested NIL is helping us. A guy like Keels should be the poster child for “NIL provides incentive for a borderline guy to return,” and yet everything so far suggests he is looking for every reason to stay in the draft. And the prospect of NIL (it wasn’t official yet but there were strong indications of it happening) didn’t convince two guys who weren’t getting drafted (Hurt and Steward) to return.

For better or for worse, we have created a recruiting image of a one-and-done factory. So while NIL may cushion the blow, it doesn’t appear to be influencing decisions for Duke. Especially when returning can put you at the mercy of facing a PT crunch with another stellar recruiting class coming in.

Maybe with time that will change. But I wouldn’t expect NIL to make much impact on our chances of getting guys like Mitchell to return (especially since there are studs coming in at his spot), at least not based on the early evidence. There is a mindset that these guys are coming in with that will be hard for NIL to sway.

This feels spot on. For someone flirting with the NBA, it is more than just the money. It is the prestige, pride and feeling it is the promised land that we are underestimating. Should probably value a dollar of NBA earnings twice as much as NIL because the NBA means that much to them. NIL seems to be interesting to the NBA prospect only if it is getting to a million or more (Oscar Tshiebwe)...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Early returns haven’t suggested NIL is helping us. A guy like Keels should be the poster child for “NIL provides incentive for a borderline guy to return,” and yet everything so far suggests he is looking for every reason to stay in the draft. And the prospect of NIL (it wasn’t official yet but there were strong indications of it happening) didn’t convince two guys who weren’t getting drafted (Hurt and Steward) to return.

For better or for worse, we have created a recruiting image of a one-and-done factory. So while NIL may cushion the blow, it doesn’t appear to be influencing decisions for Duke. Especially when returning can put you at the mercy of facing a PT crunch with another stellar recruiting class coming in.

Maybe with time that will change. But I wouldn’t expect NIL to make much impact on our chances of getting guys like Mitchell to return (especially since there are studs coming in at his spot), at least not based on the early evidence. There is a mindset that these guys are coming in with that will be hard for NIL to sway.

Yup. NIL may help Duke to get high-impact transfers or retain borderline first round picks who value $$$, but we haven't seen that yet. Also, given that Duke was already recruiting at such a high level, even if we are getting top recruits who choose Duke because of NIL, the outcome is the same pre- and post-NIL for Duke. Basically, we get the top recruits.

Where I think NIL is really making a difference is schools like UNC, where a player who may have gone pro after a successful season now stays because they are getting paid more to be in school than trying their luck with the NBA, G-League, etc. Or a school like Miami who is able to target high impact transfers (and maybe recruits) by effectively paying them.

Duke has just been recruiting at such a high level pre- and post- NIL that it's tough to assess if it's making a difference at all...

[HayYou]

Admittedly I have not watched much 2023 recruit videos other than Duke prospects, but if there are five guys better than Mgbako then this class is loaded…

Better now? Or possibly better in the future? Because rankings often include possible NBA upside. There are 10-15 guys in the 21 HS class better, right now, than Chet Holmgren. Some of whom are a LOT BETTER. But Chet has insane upside as basically the only guy in the class whose ceiling is MVP. So he's ranked number 1 in the class while guys who are much better now are ranked after him.

As great as Mgb is right now, I'm not sure if he's got the highest ceiling in the NBA.

Nor do I care. I only care about his NBA future in that I want him to be successful and well paid, and lots of guys in the NBA achieve that without ever making an all star team. Further, his NBA success will help Duke's recruiting in the future.

If we end up with the guy who has the best year in college, but is surpassed by a few guys in the NBA, fine.

[HayYou]

Early returns haven’t suggested NIL is helping us. A guy like Keels should be the poster child for “NIL provides incentive for a borderline guy to return,” and yet everything so far suggests he is looking for every reason to stay in the draft. And the prospect of NIL (it wasn’t official yet but there were strong indications of it happening) didn’t convince two guys who weren’t getting drafted (Hurt and Steward) to return.

For better or for worse, we have created a recruiting image of a one-and-done factory. So while NIL may cushion the blow, it doesn’t appear to be influencing decisions for Duke. Especially when returning can put you at the mercy of facing a PT crunch with another stellar recruiting class coming in.

Maybe with time that will change. But I wouldn’t expect NIL to make much impact on our chances of getting guys like Mitchell to return (especially since there are studs coming in at his spot), at least not based on the early evidence. There is a mindset that these guys are coming in with that will be hard for NIL to sway.

Hurt and Stewart were heading for the bench. Stewart, barring serious improvement, might not have played all that much last year. Hurt had maxed out his college potential, and needed to get started on whatever pro career he can carve out.

[scottdude8]

Early returns haven’t suggested NIL is helping us. A guy like Keels should be the poster child for “NIL provides incentive for a borderline guy to return,” and yet everything so far suggests he is looking for every reason to stay in the draft. And the prospect of NIL (it wasn’t official yet but there were strong indications of it happening) didn’t convince two guys who weren’t getting drafted (Hurt and Steward) to return.

For better or for worse, we have created a recruiting image of a one-and-done factory. So while NIL may cushion the blow, it doesn’t appear to be influencing decisions for Duke. Especially when returning can put you at the mercy of facing a PT crunch with another stellar recruiting class coming in.

Maybe with time that will change. But I wouldn’t expect NIL to make much impact on our chances of getting guys like Mitchell to return (especially since there are studs coming in at his spot), at least not based on the early evidence. There is a mindset that these guys are coming in with that will be hard for NIL to sway.

All valid points, although IIRC Hurt and Steward made their decisions before the NIL rules were finalized and official, so I'm not sure if they count as data points. If Keels does indeed go pro, I agree that would be a major point against NIL benefitting us.

My gut feeling is that we may not benefit from NIL in the short term, but will in the long term. In the short term, with things as unregulated as they are, teams can not so subtly pay for play (i.e. Nigel Pack and Miami). Eventually the NCAA will probably at least try to make that harder to do. When that happens, the appeal of the Duke brand will be more of a factor in someone's potential NIL earnings than individual donors, I think. There'll be a lot of change over the next few years on this though, so it's impossible to predict.

[scottdude8]

Hurt and Stewart were heading for the bench. Stewart, barring serious improvement, might not have played all that much last year. Hurt had maxed out his college potential, and needed to get started on whatever pro career he can carve out.

Umm, if Steward came back, we probably never recruit Trevor, and Steward enters the year as our starting 2 guard. And while there would've been a logjam if Hurt returned, I'm pretty sure a guy who was first-team All-ACC would find minutes. Your argument is probably right re: maximizing his pro potential, but let's not go overboard.

[flyingdutchdevil]

All valid points, although IIRC Hurt and Steward made their decisions before the NIL rules were finalized and official, so I'm not sure if they count as data points. If Keels does indeed go pro, I agree that would be a major point against NIL benefitting us.

My gut feeling is that we may not benefit from NIL in the short term, but will in the long term. In the short term, with things as unregulated as they are, teams can not so subtly pay for play (i.e. Nigel Pack and Miami). Eventually the NCAA will probably at least try to make that harder to do. When that happens, the appeal of the Duke brand will be more of a factor in someone's potential NIL earnings than individual donors, I think. There'll be a lot of change over the next few years on this though, so it's impossible to predict.

I agree on Hurt and Steward. They made their decisions without understanding how NIL could work (I mean, no one really knew what to expect).

If NIL had been instituted 12 months prior, I suspect Hurt would transfer to another school as not to compete with Paolo and Steward likely would have stayed to fight for a starting 1-2 spot. Pure speculation, of course, but I don't think you can use last year's crop of player decisions to make conclusions on NIL.

[CDu]

Hurt and Stewart were heading for the bench. Stewart, barring serious improvement, might not have played all that much last year. Hurt had maxed out his college potential, and needed to get started on whatever pro career he can carve out.

Agreed on Hurt. Which was part of my point. The NIL doesn't seem likely to help Duke in terms of keeping the borderline guys around. Not because the money isn't can't offer the money, because we have the means to connect our players with funding opportunities. Instead, it's in part because of the caliber of recruit that we're getting every year (which can limit the opportunity to shine for a returning player) and in part because the environment we've created sets the expectation of early entry for the recruits.

I disagree about Steward, though. I think he'd have started most of the games and would have played a ton. Remember: Roach struggled for long stretches of the season. Keels struggled for long stretches of the season, and was injured for a bit more. Griffin spent most of the early season injured, and struggled for long stretches of the season. There was plenty of opportunity for another guard to establish himself. And he wouldn't have needed to improve a ton. His freshman year was on par with (arguably better than) either Keels' freshman year or Roach's sophomore year.

Hurt left because his opportunities were going to decline with the stellar class coming in. Steward left most likely because of the one-and-done image Duke had created.