2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[budwom]

Seems like a lot of offers by Duke already for the Class of 2023, where players are about to start their junior year in high school. (Michael Jordan at this point had not yet made his varsity team).

Is this a change in strategy by new Coach Scheyer to line up his 2023 recruiting class early? Or more just the nature of the current recruiting atmosphere? Is he going about this differently than Coach K did?

I'm just guessing that the pandemic year put everyone behind the eight ball a bit...couldn't see the younger prospects at all during the summer, so I suspect this summer was a good opportunity to see a lot of guys and get a head start on next year's class.
That's a long winded way of saying I think he's going back to how things used to be done, after Covid screwed things up for a solid year.

[dukelifer]

Seems like a lot of offers by Duke already for the Class of 2023, where players are about to start their junior year in high school. (Michael Jordan at this point had not yet made his varsity team).

Is this a change in strategy by new Coach Scheyer to line up his 2023 recruiting class early? Or more just the nature of the current recruiting atmosphere? Is he going about this differently than Coach K did?

At that point- Steph Curry weighed 140 lbs. Wow did Va Tech miss on him.

[roywhite]

Who's likely to have the best 2023 recruiting class?

Could well be Overtime Elite.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ss-signs-elite

"This is different and new," Smith said. "I wanted to be a pro already, working on stuff that NBA players work on. In high school, you can't work out as much as they do at OTE."

Smith is the seventh five-star recruit to sign with the upstart league. He is considered one of the best long-term prospects in the class, spurning scholarship offers from schools such as Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Florida State, Oklahoma, Memphis, LSU and others.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Who's likely to have the best 2023 recruiting class?

Could well be Overtime Elite.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...ss-signs-elite

"This is different and new," Smith said. "I wanted to be a pro already, working on stuff that NBA players work on. In high school, you can't work out as much as they do at OTE."

Smith is the seventh five-star recruit to sign with the upstart league. He is considered one of the best long-term prospects in the class, spurning scholarship offers from schools such as Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Florida State, Oklahoma, Memphis, LSU and others.

I'm 100% ok with any potential one and done going that route instead of going to Duke.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm 100% ok with any potential one and done going that route instead of going to Duke.

Don't hold your breath. Until the NBA decides to get rid of one-and-done, there will still be plenty of them going to college and a number of them are going to Duke each year.

[Phredd3]

I'm 100% ok with any potential one and done going that route instead of going to Duke.

Amen, brother! I want players in college who want to be in college to the extent that is possible. If that means Duke is "worse", that's fine with me. All colleges will be in the same boat, and I will still watch college ball and likely will not watch one moment of OTE.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Amen, brother! I want players in college who want to be in college to the extent that is possible. If that means Duke is "worse", that's fine with me. All colleges will be in the same boat, and I will still watch college ball and likely will not watch one moment of OTE.

I completely agree. Don't force people to go to college who absolutely don't want to be there. I'm glad there is some sort of a viable alternative. I'll leave it at that as I think we have otherwise beaten this topic to death and I want this thread to stay focused on 2023 recruiting.

[roywhite]

I completely agree. Don't force people to go to college who absolutely don't want to be there. I'm glad there is some sort of a viable alternative. I'll leave it at that as I think we have otherwise beaten this topic to death and I want this thread to stay focused on 2023 recruiting.

Yeah, it's good there is an alternative path for athletes who don't see value in attending college, even for just a year.

I still wonder a bit whether the top recruits at least have made a general decision, along the lines of:

Yes, I want to go to college
No, I'm looking for a path to the pros only, and don't want to attend college.
Not sure -- check out the colleges and the developmental leagues, won't finally decide until late in the game.

[scottdude8]

I see additional opportunities for these young men as nothing but a good thing. There's obviously risk involved in choosing an upstart league, but as long as these young men are making informed decisions they should have every right to decide what's best for them and their future. Monopolies are rarely a good thing, and for a long time college basketball has had a monopoly on developing aspiring professional basketball players. Hopefully, increased competition will lead to improvements in the college game.

For those worried about the top talents not being in college, I'd ask: Did people's interest in the college game wane from 1995-2005, the approximate decade in which high schoolers turning pro was most prevalent? At least on this board I doubt it, considering the late 90s/early 00s was arguably one of the best periods in Duke basketball history. I think there will ALWAYS be a marketplace for slightly longer-term development of professional basketball prospects (see a guy like Chris Duarte, a lottery pick this year despite being 24 years old, and the many second and third year guys who end up in the first round each year), and thus a place for college basketball. If that means we have less Zion Williamson's and more Shane Battiers, it'll be a different game, but not necessarily a worse one, IMHO.

[JasonEvans]

Who's likely to have the best 2023 recruiting class?

Could well be Overtime Elite.

Has anyone figured out how Overtime Elite plans to make money? I know they are trying to get something like 20-30 guys to play together, which means they can form 3 or maybe 4 teams to play against each other. Is there some expectation that those games will be televised or streamed in a way that makes decent money for OTE? I really don't see it. It makes me think that OTE must be getting a piece of some of the player's future earnings. Perhaps OTE will represent the players in endorsement deals when they enter the NBA or something like that. I just don't see how OTE can afford to pay $500k+ to 20-30 kids per year without something like that.

Don't forget, OTE is not like the G League signing high school graduates who would otherwise head to college. OTE is increasingly signing guys who still have high school eligibility remaining.

[arnie]

Has anyone figured out how Overtime Elite plans to make money? I know they are trying to get something like 20-30 guys to play together, which means they can form 3 or maybe 4 teams to play against each other. Is there some expectation that those games will be televised or streamed in a way that makes decent money for OTE? I really don't see it. It makes me think that OTE must be getting a piece of some of the player's future earnings. Perhaps OTE will represent the players in endorsement deals when they enter the NBA or something like that. I just don't see how OTE can afford to pay $500k+ to 20-30 kids per year without something like that.

Don't forget, OTE is not like the G League signing high school graduates who would otherwise head to college. OTE is increasingly signing guys who still have high school eligibility remaining.

Agree, reminds me of USFL and WFL. Good salaries, but short term leagues. And I don’t think the top rated HS players should sign on with the league on future endorsement deals.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Has anyone figured out how Overtime Elite plans to make money? I know they are trying to get something like 20-30 guys to play together, which means they can form 3 or maybe 4 teams to play against each other. Is there some expectation that those games will be televised or streamed in a way that makes decent money for OTE? I really don't see it. It makes me think that OTE must be getting a piece of some of the player's future earnings. Perhaps OTE will represent the players in endorsement deals when they enter the NBA or something like that. I just don't see how OTE can afford to pay $500k+ to 20-30 kids per year without something like that.

Don't forget, OTE is not like the G League signing high school graduates who would otherwise head to college. OTE is increasingly signing guys who still have high school eligibility remaining.

My two cents are they are trying to get bought out by the NBA. It's a classic startup exit strategy. Exploit a market that is overlooked by a major competitor - in this case, the NBA only plans on having one G-League developmental team and no explicit expansion plans - and then fill that void in hopes the major player buys you out. With ~20 players signed, that's enough for 2 teams. There are only 28 G-League teams right now and they need 2 more so that each NBA team has a G-League affiliate. That's simple math in my mind.

[JasonEvans]

My two cents are they are trying to get bought out by the NBA. It's a classic startup exit strategy. Exploit a market that is overlooked by a major competitor - in this case, the NBA only plans on having one G-League developmental team and no explicit expansion plans - and then fill that void in hopes the major player buys you out. With ~20 players signed, that's enough for 2 teams. There are only 28 G-League teams right now and they need 2 more so that each NBA team has a G-League affiliate. That's simple math in my mind.

But what does OTE provide that the NBA cannot generate on their own by simply adding two more teams to the G-League? Why pay OTE some multi-million dollar acquisition fee? What is OTE going to do that would make their teams of value to the G-League/NBA?

Also, again, OTE is signing current high school juniors, not otherwise college bound players. Their player pool is different from the G-League. If the NBA truly wants to get into the basketball minor league game and begin paying high school juniors and seniors for 2 or more years before those players can enter the NBA draft, it is not like the OTE is standing in their way.

[Pghdukie]

Why would the NBA pay anything extra for a minor league affiliation when they are basically getting it for free.

[scottdude8]

Has anyone figured out how Overtime Elite plans to make money? I know they are trying to get something like 20-30 guys to play together, which means they can form 3 or maybe 4 teams to play against each other. Is there some expectation that those games will be televised or streamed in a way that makes decent money for OTE? I really don't see it. It makes me think that OTE must be getting a piece of some of the player's future earnings. Perhaps OTE will represent the players in endorsement deals when they enter the NBA or something like that. I just don't see how OTE can afford to pay $500k+ to 20-30 kids per year without something like that.

Don't forget, OTE is not like the G League signing high school graduates who would otherwise head to college. OTE is increasingly signing guys who still have high school eligibility remaining.

Well, according to this Forbes article the company "Overtime" is a "sports network geared towards the digital generation". So it seems likely that they expect to make some money from the digital broadcasts of these games and associated "content" from the players (i.e. social media stuff), and/or they view this as a way to advertise the "Overtime" platform (i.e. the league itself won't be designed to make a profit, but rather advertise Overtime... much like the "Disney Channel" doesn't have ads and thus doesn't directly make money, but instead has value through advertising Disney stuff to kids).

That said, I'm with you Jason that some kind of deal for future earnings seems like the most likely scenario... perhaps there are Overtime-affiliated agents that the players are committing to work with. If that's the case than this makes a bit more sense as an "investment" rather than a for-profit product: Overtime is not only securing future earnings from kids who have pro potential, but is working with them to maximize that potential via what they see as a superior development regiment than currently provided by high-schools/AAU. If that is the case, then this looks more like an above board version of the shady deals college athletes used to have with agents that would lead to NCAA investigations and whatnot.

[tommy]

Overtime Elite has signed 5-star prospect and rising HS junior Tyler Smith out of Texas.

In the article about it I read, it notes that OE prospects receive contracts at a minimum of $100K, NIL revenue, and "shares of equity in Overtime."

That could mean a lot of things, could be structured in a lot of ways, and these shares' value could be sold to the players and their families in lots of ways.

[Kedsy]

(i.e. the league itself won't be designed to make a profit, but rather advertise Overtime... much like the "Disney Channel" doesn't have ads and thus doesn't directly make money, but instead has value through advertising Disney stuff to kids).

Doesn't the Disney channel charge a monthly subscription fee to view its content? It does where I come from, anyway, which means it's very different from the business model you're suggesting.

[DavidBenAkiva]

But what does OTE provide that the NBA cannot generate on their own by simply adding two more teams to the G-League? Why pay OTE some multi-million dollar acquisition fee? What is OTE going to do that would make their teams of value to the G-League/NBA?

Also, again, OTE is signing current high school juniors, not otherwise college bound players. Their player pool is different from the G-League. If the NBA truly wants to get into the basketball minor league game and begin paying high school juniors and seniors for 2 or more years before those players can enter the NBA draft, it is not like the OTE is standing in their way.

Why did the NBA and ABA merge when the NBA could have just started new franchises? The owners of the ABA wanted to be part of the NBA. It takes more than just will to get professional teams going. It takes a financial investment. For the NBA, perhaps they don't want to make the up-front financial investment to launch a new team with new training facilities and intellectual property. Just my two cents.

[Kedsy]

Why did the NBA and ABA merge when the NBA could have just started new franchises?

The ABA teams had somewhat of an existing fan base, didn't they? (As well as a working organization, as you mention.) That alone would distinguish that situation from this one.

[budwom]

The ABA teams had somewhat of an existing fan base, didn't they? (As well as a working organization, as you mention.) That alone would distinguish that situation from this one.

And players under contract.