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  1. #2201
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Disappointed that Caleb Foster did not make it. With him getting snubbed in the Mickie Dee game, I really want a chance to see him in some other All-Star showcases.
    Yeah, me too. He had a really productive senior year and was a lot better on the court head-to-head against Bronny James. Yet James got the McDonald's All-American and Nike Hoop Summit invites.

    I believe Foster is going to play in the Iverson Classic, along with Sean Stewart and Mackenzie Mgbako.

  2. #2202
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Yeah, me too. He had a really productive senior year and was a lot better on the court head-to-head against Bronny James. Yet James got the McDonald's All-American and Nike Hoop Summit invites.

    I believe Foster is going to play in the Iverson Classic, along with Sean Stewart and Mackenzie Mgbako.
    On the other hand, here is what all-star games tell you about how players will perform in college:

    2022 McD game: The two worst performers were Brandon Miller (4 points in 18 mins) and Grady Dick (3 points in 17 mins). Dick went on to be 2nd team All-Big 12 while Miller is a first team All-American.
    2022 Nike Hoop Summit : Kyle Filipowski may have been the worst player in the game. He shot 1-5, scored just 3 points, played a game-low 13 minutes, and just looked slow and outclassed the entire game. He went on to be ACC ROY.

    By the way, the top scorer in the McD game was Mark Mitchell with 19 points. He went on to have a fine freshman year, but was not nearly a scorer like that at Duke.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #2203
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    On the other hand, here is what all-star games tell you about how players will perform in college:

    2022 McD game: The two worst performers were Brandon Miller (4 points in 18 mins) and Grady Dick (3 points in 17 mins). Dick went on to be 2nd team All-Big 12 while Miller is a first team All-American.
    2022 Nike Hoop Summit : Kyle Filipowski may have been the worst player in the game. He shot 1-5, scored just 3 points, played a game-low 13 minutes, and just looked slow and outclassed the entire game. He went on to be ACC ROY.

    By the way, the top scorer in the McD game was Mark Mitchell with 19 points. He went on to have a fine freshman year, but was not nearly a scorer like that at Duke.
    Maybe the important takeaway is that all those guys were very impactful this season. Being selected matters. What happens when they get on campus is another.

    FWIW, I thought Mitchell looked exactly like the guy we saw in the McDonald's All-American game. He was a "do all the little things" kind of player in the game and throughout his freshmen season. He has a lot of skills. He did win the Skills Competition, after all.

  4. #2204
    Sean Stewart was the 6th man on Montroverde this year so I'm guessing he won't have a problem being the 6th man for Duke I see him as a multi year guy

  5. #2205
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    On the other hand, here is what all-star games tell you about how players will perform in college:

    2022 McD game: The two worst performers were Brandon Miller (4 points in 18 mins) and Grady Dick (3 points in 17 mins). Dick went on to be 2nd team All-Big 12 while Miller is a first team All-American.
    2022 Nike Hoop Summit : Kyle Filipowski may have been the worst player in the game. He shot 1-5, scored just 3 points, played a game-low 13 minutes, and just looked slow and outclassed the entire game. He went on to be ACC ROY.

    By the way, the top scorer in the McD game was Mark Mitchell with 19 points. He went on to have a fine freshman year, but was not nearly a scorer like that at Duke.
    One the other hand- Hurley and Shaq were co-MVPs in the 1989 McD game and both had nice college careers But yes- hard to tell much. I thought Nasir Little was going to tear up the ACC after his MVP performance and he was just fair in his only year and below average in the NBA.

  6. #2206
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    One the other hand- Hurley and Shaq were co-MVPs in the 1989 McD game and both had nice college careers But yes- hard to tell much. I thought Nasir Little was going to tear up the ACC after his MVP performance and he was just fair in his only year and below average in the NBA.
    McRoberts and Paulus absolutely crushed the McDs game from what I recall.

    So yeah...hard to tell.

  7. #2207
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Maybe the important takeaway is that all those guys were very impactful this season. Being selected matters. What happens when they get on campus is another.

    FWIW, I thought Mitchell looked exactly like the guy we saw in the McDonald's All-American game. He was a "do all the little things" kind of player in the game and throughout his freshmen season. He has a lot of skills. He did win the Skills Competition, after all.
    Captain obvious and everything, but just want to reiterate-HUGE loss for that game last week. He would have completely changed the game.

  8. #2208
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    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by robed deity View Post
    Captain obvious and everything, but just want to reiterate-HUGE loss for that game last week. He would have completely changed the game.
    Agreed, and I think his absence was likely more important to the game than the much-discussed officiating. And I count myself among the guilty-as-charged in that assessment.

  9. #2209

    GEICO Nationals

    On ESPN networks this coming Thurs-Sat March 30-April 1. I’m only interested in Montverde’s games, to see ‘23 Sean Stewart, ‘25 Cooper Flagg, and ‘24 Liam McNeeley. I saw a Montverde win 6 weeks ago. Flagg was either ill or in the doghouse, as he played only 7 minutes, didn’t score. Stewart was ok, not dominant, did hit a couple of 12-15 ft jumpers.

    The dominant player was McNeeley, who scored 29 of Montverde’s 62 points. Rebounded, assists, all over the court. Back then he was apparently not being recruited by Duke. Hope that has changed.

    Would be happy to hear from posters more familiar with Montverde’s season.

    Montverde’s first game is Thurs March 30, 6 pm, ESPNU. If they win , they’ll play semifinal on Fri March 31, 4:30 ESPN2. Another win, they’ll play final on Sat April 1, noon, ESPN.

    I should also mention that ‘24 Duke commit Darren Harris will appear with his St. Paul VI team, Thurs March 30, noon, ESPNU. And on Fri/Sat if they keep winning.

    Link — https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-r...ch-30-april-1/

  10. #2210
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    On ESPN networks this coming Thurs-Sat March 30-April 1. I’m only interested in Montverde’s games, to see ‘23 Sean Stewart, ‘25 Cooper Flagg, and ‘24 Liam McNeeley. I saw a Montverde win 6 weeks ago. Flagg was either ill or in the doghouse, as he played only 7 minutes, didn’t score. Stewart was ok, not dominant, did hit a couple of 12-15 ft jumpers.

    The dominant player was McNeeley, who scored 29 of Montverde’s 62 points. Rebounded, assists, all over the court. Back then he was apparently not being recruited by Duke. Hope that has changed.

    Would be happy to hear from posters more familiar with Montverde’s season.

    Montverde’s first game is Thurs March 30, 6 pm, ESPNU. If they win , they’ll play semifinal on Fri March 31, 4:30 ESPN2. Another win, they’ll play final on Sat April 1, noon, ESPN.

    I should also mention that ‘24 Duke commit Darren Harris will appear with his St. Paul VI team, Thurs March 30, noon, ESPNU. And on Fri/Sat if they keep winning.

    Link — https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-r...ch-30-april-1/
    Isn’t Duke recruiting the Boozer kids?

  11. #2211
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Isn’t Duke recruiting the Boozer kids?
    Yes, but the Boozers’ school team isn’t playing in the GEICO Nationals.

  12. #2212

    McDonald's Game is Tuesday at 9:00 on ESPN

    McKenzie Mgbako and Sean Stewart playing for the East and Jared McCain for the West

  13. #2213
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Bethesda, MD

    K, Recruiting and the NBA

    My estimate of the number of future NBA players in the Final Four is 1 (Connecticut's point guard).
    UNC got to the final game last year without an NBA player.
    During the one-and-done era, there have been two mostly-freshman teams (Kentucky in 2012 and Duke in 2015) that have won a natty. Duke's 2022 team obviously came pretty close to pulling it off.
    All of this is to say that I think Duke's recruiting strategy over the past decade is increasingly unlikely to produce national championships.
    A better strategy, IMO, would be to mix in multi-year four-star recruits with one or two one-and-dones per year.

    I don't think any of the above is terribly controversial (though I could always be proven wrong), but it leads me to a more idiosyncratic theory. K was obviously intimately involved with the NBA and its players during his time as head coach of USA basketball and, from all accounts, he greatly enjoyed his experience. Is it possible that K kept maxing out on five star recruits because he liked the connections it helped him build with the NBA, even as it became increasingly untenable as a win-a-natty strategy? I really don't mean this as a serious complaint - we've been incredibly lucky as Duke fans - but I do wonder whether K might have been (perhaps subconsciously) pursuing multiple objectives over the past decade.

  14. #2214
    Quote Originally Posted by WillJ View Post
    My estimate of the number of future NBA players in the Final Four is 1 (Connecticut's point guard).
    UNC got to the final game last year without an NBA player.
    During the one-and-done era, there have been two mostly-freshman teams (Kentucky in 2012 and Duke in 2015) that have won a natty. Duke's 2022 team obviously came pretty close to pulling it off.
    All of this is to say that I think Duke's recruiting strategy over the past decade is increasingly unlikely to produce national championships.
    A better strategy, IMO, would be to mix in multi-year four-star recruits with one or two one-and-dones per year.

    I don't think any of the above is terribly controversial (though I could always be proven wrong), but it leads me to a more idiosyncratic theory. K was obviously intimately involved with the NBA and its players during his time as head coach of USA basketball and, from all accounts, he greatly enjoyed his experience. Is it possible that K kept maxing out on five star recruits because he liked the connections it helped him build with the NBA, even as it became increasingly untenable as a win-a-natty strategy? I really don't mean this as a serious complaint - we've been incredibly lucky as Duke fans - but I do wonder whether K might have been (perhaps subconsciously) pursuing multiple objectives over the past decade.
    My friend, Duke was in the Final Four just last year. If you wrote this post 12 months ago, you would have concluded that one-and-dones were the way to go. In fact, since Duke has gone heavy into the OAD strategy beginning with the 2014-15 season, it has resulted in a National Title, another Final Four, two Elite 8s, another Sweet 16, and 3 ACC Tournament Titles (most in the ACC during that timespan). Compare that to ever other team out there and see how many can stack up. Villanova was arguably more successful and maybe Kansas and possibly UNC (if you exclude the losing seasons). And then...? Gonzaga? They also have had their best teams with one-and-done players (Zach Collins in 2017 and Chet Holmgren last year despite the early exit from the NCAA Tournament). Talent gets you a long way in the NCAA Tournament.

    There are many ways to construct a National Title contender. The teams in the Final Four this year are proof of that.

    I also think you are underestimating the number of NBA players in the Final Four this year. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller of Miami will both have opportunities to make it in the NBA. Andre Jackson of UConn also appears in the most recent NBA Draft Big Board from Sam Vecennie of the Athletic and his play during the NCAA Tournament will only serve to help him get drafted this summer. Matt Bradley of SDSU is another player that could have elevated his profile enough to get a look in the draft.

    I think Coach K maxed out on Five Stars because 1) he had to as soon as 4+ players started leaving early every summer and he needed to replace those guys on the roster, and 2) he wanted to coach the best talent.

  15. #2215
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    My friend, Duke was in the Final Four just last year. If you wrote this post 12 months ago, you would have concluded that one-and-dones were the way to go. In fact, since Duke has gone heavy into the OAD strategy beginning with the 2014-15 season, it has resulted in a National Title, another Final Four, two Elite 8s, another Sweet 16, and 3 ACC Tournament Titles (most in the ACC during that timespan).
    Yep. Not only that, but we were just 2 possessions from 4 Final Fours in the last 8 tournaments, and we had a top-5 team in the year there was no tournament.

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I also think you are underestimating the number of NBA players in the Final Four this year. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller of Miami will both have opportunities to make it in the NBA. Andre Jackson of UConn also appears in the most recent NBA Draft Big Board from Sam Vecennie of the Athletic and his play during the NCAA Tournament will only serve to help him get drafted this summer. Matt Bradley of SDSU is another player that could have elevated his profile enough to get a look in the draft.
    Not to mention Jordan Hawkins and Donovan Clingan.

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    I think Coach K maxed out on Five Stars because 1) he had to as soon as 4+ players started leaving early every summer and he needed to replace those guys on the roster, and 2) he wanted to coach the best talent.
    Yep. And it's hard to reasonably argue that the decision has been a bad one. We've continued to be an elite program generating elite results. In fact, we've fared better the last 8 years of tournaments than we fared in the 8 years prior when we relied on veterans and/or a more complete mix of vets with just a single one-and-done.

    Now, COVID (both in terms of robbing high schoolers of a year of development and in allowing returning college players an extra year) made it more difficult for the one and done model. I would argue that COVID might have cost us the national title last year by beefing up rosters elsewhere. In two more years (i.e., once the "COVID year" is gone), I think the advantages of landing more of the best freshman talent will return.

  16. #2216
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    Bethesda, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    My friend, Duke was in the Final Four just last year. If you wrote this post 12 months ago, you would have concluded that one-and-dones were the way to go. In fact, since Duke has gone heavy into the OAD strategy beginning with the 2014-15 season, it has resulted in a National Title, another Final Four, two Elite 8s, another Sweet 16, and 3 ACC Tournament Titles (most in the ACC during that timespan). Compare that to ever other team out there and see how many can stack up. Villanova was arguably more successful and maybe Kansas and possibly UNC (if you exclude the losing seasons). And then...? Gonzaga? They also have had their best teams with one-and-done players (Zach Collins in 2017 and Chet Holmgren last year despite the early exit from the NCAA Tournament). Talent gets you a long way in the NCAA Tournament.

    There are many ways to construct a National Title contender. The teams in the Final Four this year are proof of that.

    I also think you are underestimating the number of NBA players in the Final Four this year. Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller of Miami will both have opportunities to make it in the NBA. Andre Jackson of UConn also appears in the most recent NBA Draft Big Board from Sam Vecennie of the Athletic and his play during the NCAA Tournament will only serve to help him get drafted this summer. Matt Bradley of SDSU is another player that could have elevated his profile enough to get a look in the draft.

    I think Coach K maxed out on Five Stars because 1) he had to as soon as 4+ players started leaving early every summer and he needed to replace those guys on the roster, and 2) he wanted to coach the best talent.
    All good points. And as for our own 2022 team, of course we had three pretty good non-freshman in Williams, Roach, and Moore...that was one year where K threaded the needle and still didn't win. I'm probably overreacting to this year where we obviously only had one experienced returnee. Am I a spoiled fan? Yes I am!

  17. #2217
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Not to mention Jordan Hawkins and Donovan Clingan.
    I assumed WillJ was referring to Hawkins in the previous post, so I omitted him. Hawkins will be first off the board of the players in this year's NBA Draft.

    Clingan, I don't know what his NBA future holds. He could be a Walker Kessler type or he could be a Zach Edey type. It's too soon to tell. He has a world of potential.

    UConn is going to be in an interesting position if Sanogo wants to come back for his senior season. Hurley can't play both of them at the same time. Both are going to deserve playing time. I wonder if this is the last year that one or the other is at UConn.

  18. #2218
    Quote Originally Posted by WillJ View Post
    All good points. And as for our own 2022 team, of course we had three pretty good non-freshman in Williams, Roach, and Moore...that was one year where K threaded the needle and still didn't win. I'm probably overreacting to this year where we obviously only had one experienced returnee. Am I a spoiled fan? Yes I am!
    Look, I want Duke to win the National Title every year. Let's be honest, it's a crapshoot. It's a crazy sporting event where weird things happen. Setting the bar at "OAD/Duke has to win it all to prove your point" is a crazy high bar. If you look at the sum total of teams that have had 3+ OAD players, they have done really, really well during the regular and postseason. Almost every team in the NCAA tournament and many that don't make it have experienced rosters full of seniors and super seniors. Duke has outperformed those types of teams on average.

  19. #2219
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Look, I want Duke to win the National Title every year. Let's be honest, it's a crapshoot. It's a crazy sporting event where weird things happen. Setting the bar at "OAD/Duke has to win it all to prove your point" is a crazy high bar. If you look at the sum total of teams that have had 3+ OAD players, they have done really, really well during the regular and postseason. Almost every team in the NCAA tournament and many that don't make it have experienced rosters full of seniors and super seniors. Duke has outperformed those types of teams on average.
    That's all true, but then let me ask you this question. Do you want to continue the max-out-on-5-stars-each-year recruiting policy? It has, as you note, done pretty damn well, but there has been noise on this board about Scheyer perhaps moving a bit away from this strategy. Do you think that would be a mistake?

  20. #2220
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    Quote Originally Posted by WillJ View Post
    That's all true, but then let me ask you this question. Do you want to continue the max-out-on-5-stars-each-year recruiting policy? It has, as you note, done pretty damn well, but there has been noise on this board about Scheyer perhaps moving a bit away from this strategy. Do you think that would be a mistake?
    I'm not DBA, but I think the answer for me is that there are multiple ways to win. Coach K clearly did better in his later years going with the one-and-done-heavy approach. He figured out that this was a way to maximize what he did well. I think it's fair to say that it wasn't a mistake for him to go to that approach, as his results were clearly better over his last 8 years than they were over his previous 8 years. And were it not for COVID, his success might have been even greater at the end.

    It clearly wasn't a mistake for Calipari, whose best years came when HE was the king of landing the one-and-dones.

    But it isn't the ONLY way to succeed. Kansas has done really well as a program under Bill Self, and have arguably done better without the one-and-done approach than they did with it (though to be fair, they have had very few one-and-done-heavy teams).

    Will it be a mistake if Scheyer moves away from the one-and-done system? It's hard to say, because we have no idea what works best for Scheyer. But it's not inherently right or wrong.

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