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  1. #2101
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    What the rankings do illustrate, though, is that there is clearly playing time available to Proctor and (though he's probably less likely to take the return) Roach, should they return. None of the sites are high enough on these guards to suggest that they'd "have" to start no matter what.
    I know Jason had commented, maybe last week, that the decision had essentially been reached by Roach and his family that he would be moving on after this season, in one way or another.

    As for Proctor, I don't know what the consensus is.

  2. #2102
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    FWIW, the various sites have been unusually inconsistent with the Top 10 of the 2023 class. Back in the summer, I believe 247 had an article outlining that this was an unusual year where any of five players, including Mgbako, could have a claim to the No. 1 spot. Mgbako has also been playing quite well of late, including showcasing a nice outside shot (https://twitter.com/TheCircuitAlex/s...ckJtUs0cOY9F7Q), so I wouldn't be worried about him.

    Foster is a bit more surprising. I haven't seen anything indicating he's been struggling lately in any way, but following recruiting without breaking the bank is challenging
    I watched Foster in person last week against top notch competition. He wasn't struggling at all. He was fabulous.

  3. #2103
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    Quote Originally Posted by bshrader View Post
    I know Jason had commented, maybe last week, that the decision had essentially been reached by Roach and his family that he would be moving on after this season, in one way or another.
    I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #2104
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.
    It's going to be a big test-case for how well the new regime can hold onto talent. Duke has had a lot of trouble holding onto those players that are uncertain about their future. If Duke could somehow hold onto Proctor and one of Flip or Mitchell, the 2023-24 team could be very good. I'm not sure what Duke will do at C if Filipowski goes pro. I assume they'll go into the portal. Mitchell is going to block some PT for at least one of the incoming freshmen, most likely Sean Stewart. Will that ruffle some feathers? I think Mitchell could be a very good sophomore and would benefit from playing with teammates that can space the floor. Does he think another year in college is a worth the investment?

    Then again, it's possible that all 3 of Proctor, Filipowski, and Mitchell play themselves into the draft grades they want in February and March. I'm sure many of us would be happy to see that happen, even if it meant a mass exodus. There is always the portal...

    As it usually the case, it will be an interesting offseason.

  5. #2105
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    It's going to be a big test-case for how well the new regime can hold onto talent. Duke has had a lot of trouble holding onto those players that are uncertain about their future. If Duke could somehow hold onto Proctor and one of Flip or Mitchell, the 2023-24 team could be very good. I'm not sure what Duke will do at C if Filipowski goes pro. I assume they'll go into the portal. Mitchell is going to block some PT for at least one of the incoming freshmen, most likely Sean Stewart. Will that ruffle some feathers? I think Mitchell could be a very good sophomore and would benefit from playing with teammates that can space the floor. Does he think another year in college is a worth the investment?

    Then again, it's possible that all 3 of Proctor, Filipowski, and Mitchell play themselves into the draft grades they want in February and March. I'm sure many of us would be happy to see that happen, even if it meant a mass exodus. There is always the portal...

    As it usually the case, it will be an interesting offseason.
    Ehhh, I think this is less of an issue than you seem to think. If all three guys leave, I would envision Young, Reeves, and Stewart all getting time in the post. That's not a terrible option at all. I'd actually worry more about the perimeter in a case like that as Blakes would be the only returning guy with any meaningful experience at the college level.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  6. #2106
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.
    If Lively projects as un-drafted or mid 2nd round, does he still go pro?

  7. #2107
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    Then again, it's possible that all 3 of Proctor, Filipowski, and Mitchell play themselves into the draft grades they want in February and March. I'm sure many of us would be happy to see that happen, even if it meant a mass exodus.
    Was thinking about this conundrum. If we want players back, it basically means that we need them to under perform.

    But the more I think about it, not sure it matters that much. I'd imagine by this time in the season, most players have a pretty strong sense whether they are going to go or not. Maybe there are a few unusual cases of players blowing up late - Mark Williams comes to mind - and having to make an unexpected decision. But chances are if a player has his mind pre set, he'll go, results be darned. Trying to think of someone - not from UNC - whose late season underperformance pushed them to stay an extra year.

  8. #2108
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    If Lively projects as un-drafted or mid 2nd round, does he still go pro?
    I think that scenario is pretty unlikely at this point. He’s looking better and better every game lately. 5 blocks in 18 minutes last game. Any of the 30 teams would gladly take a flier on him in the mid to late first round, given his age and clear potential as a rim protector.

    In fact, I’m pretty optimistic that he could improve enough this season to make a major impact for this team. The way coach Scheyer talks about his improvement is very encouraging. He just needs to cut down on the dumb reaching fouls.

  9. #2109
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    If Lively projects as un-drafted or mid 2nd round, does he still go pro?
    He would probably still go pro. But I don't see much risk of this hypothetical scenario playing out. Now that he had the game he had against Miami (which showed the type of impact he can have), I think he's safely a late-first/early-second round pick at the absolutely worst. If he has some more games like the Miami game the rest of the season then he'll be safely a first rounder. And could easily find himself in the lottery as expected coming in.

  10. #2110
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    He would probably still go pro. But I don't see much risk of this hypothetical scenario playing out. Now that he had the game he had against Miami (which showed the type of impact he can have), I think he's safely a late-first/early-second round pick at the absolutely worst. If he has some more games like the Miami game the rest of the season then he'll be safely a first rounder. And could easily find himself in the lottery as expected coming in.
    Really? He's so limited offensively that I cannot see 1st round as a possibility. I'll gladly eat my words if he hits 2-3 post shots a game.

    He is able to switch everything on the defensive end, which is huge.

    But is he better off playing his way into the 1st round after another college season?

  11. #2111
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Really? He's so limited offensively that I cannot see 1st round as a possibility. I'll gladly eat my words if he hits 2-3 post shots a game.

    He is able to switch everything on the defensive end, which is huge.
    He isn't going to get drafted based on any sort of post game. The NBA has largely moved away from post play anyway. His value is that he is an athletic 7'1" with the ability to defend even away from the basket and tremendous shotblocking ability. That will get him drafted in the first round. After all, Bismack Biyambo went in the freaking lottery with no more offensive game than Lively.

    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    But is he better off playing his way into the 1st round after another college season?
    As said above, he's already almost certainly a 1st round pick. And even if he was a high second round pick, he's going to get a guaranteed contract. So it makes little sense to risk coming back and not showing improvement. Because if he comes back and STILL doesn't show an offensive game (as is a quite reasonable possibility), then his draft stock would really suffer.

    But he's going to go in the first round on the back of his athleticism, length, and defensive potential.

  12. #2112
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.
    If this is true, I'm rooting for Flip and Proctor to stay. That pair returning would provide assurance for some continuity in terms of offensive firepower. I like Mitchell, but it seems like it would be in his best interest to leave, given the positional overlap he shares with Mgbako, Stewart, and Power.

    Also, are we certain Ryan Young would stay another year? I know he has eligibility, but I haven't heard anything about his actual interest in doing a grad year at Duke confirmed one way or another. Obviously, he would be a major addition in terms of adding experience to the roster.

  13. #2113
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    He would probably still go pro. But I don't see much risk of this hypothetical scenario playing out. Now that he had the game he had against Miami (which showed the type of impact he can have), I think he's safely a late-first/early-second round pick at the absolutely worst. If he has some more games like the Miami game the rest of the season then he'll be safely a first rounder. And could easily find himself in the lottery as expected coming in.
    I have trouble envisioning a lottery pick for Lively unless he suddenly and miraculously develops a shot. His defense is unquestionably good. But there are only a couple of teams out there who can afford to use a PURELY defensive center. And for those that can, they don't need to spend a lottery pick to find one. I have real difficulty seeing Lively get over that hump in the next two months - and really, it's just one more month, because you don't typically get the opportunity to use and develop entirely new skills during post-season games. I agree that his defense may be good enough to get him into the first round. Lottery? Not so sure.

  14. #2114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I have trouble envisioning a lottery pick for Lively unless he suddenly and miraculously develops a shot. His defense is unquestionably good. But there are only a couple of teams out there who can afford to use a PURELY defensive center. And for those that can, they don't need to spend a lottery pick to find one. I have real difficulty seeing Lively get over that hump in the next two months - and really, it's just one more month, because you don't typically get the opportunity to use and develop entirely new skills during post-season games. I agree that his defense may be good enough to get him into the first round. Lottery? Not so sure.
    I think his top end is probably around the #10-12 range. But I think he can get there without any more offensive game than rim running. Because what will get him there is his height/length/athleticism and ability to dominate defensively.

    For him to get to that back end of the lottery though will require consistently playing more like he did against Miami. If he averages 3-4 blocks and 7-8 rebounds per game the rest of the way, sprinkling in the occasional double-double and/or 5+ block game here and there, he could find himself in the back of the lottery.

    Even as is, now that they have seen him do it, I think his realistic draft floor is late-first/early-second.

  15. #2115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I have trouble envisioning a lottery pick for Lively unless he suddenly and miraculously develops a shot. His defense is unquestionably good. But there are only a couple of teams out there who can afford to use a PURELY defensive center. And for those that can, they don't need to spend a lottery pick to find one. I have real difficulty seeing Lively get over that hump in the next two months - and really, it's just one more month, because you don't typically get the opportunity to use and develop entirely new skills during post-season games. I agree that his defense may be good enough to get him into the first round. Lottery? Not so sure.
    I don't think this is true, there are plenty of non-shooting centers still making huge impacts on NBA teams even in 2023. Nic Claxton is a borderline all-star this year who shoots no threes, and only 46% from the free throw line, but is 2nd in the league in blocked shots. There's plenty of guys who can't shoot but still are highly valued around the league. Robert Williams, Clint Capela, Mitchell Robinson, Kevon Looney, Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams, Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, etc.

    Being a non shooting 5 is not an issue. Lively is a true 5, so his inability to shoot is fine as long as he is a capable screen setter, finishes in the paint, and lives up to the hype on defense.

  16. #2116
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I have trouble envisioning a lottery pick for Lively unless he suddenly and miraculously develops a shot. His defense is unquestionably good. But there are only a couple of teams out there who can afford to use a PURELY defensive center. And for those that can, they don't need to spend a lottery pick to find one. I have real difficulty seeing Lively get over that hump in the next two months - and really, it's just one more month, because you don't typically get the opportunity to use and develop entirely new skills during post-season games. I agree that his defense may be good enough to get him into the first round. Lottery? Not so sure.
    I tend to agree with this. Not only is his range very limited, he struggles around the rim if hes guarded. Most of the other NBA players with limited shotmaking are strong enough to score in heavy traffic. Lively is not there yet and doubt hes that kind of player any time soon.

  17. #2117
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayZee View Post
    Was thinking about this conundrum. If we want players back, it basically means that we need them to under perform.

    But the more I think about it, not sure it matters that much. I'd imagine by this time in the season, most players have a pretty strong sense whether they are going to go or not. Maybe there are a few unusual cases of players blowing up late - Mark Williams comes to mind - and having to make an unexpected decision. But chances are if a player has his mind pre set, he'll go, results be darned. Trying to think of someone - not from UNC - whose late season underperformance pushed them to stay an extra year.
    Grayson Allen? Marques Bolden?

  18. #2118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bay Area Duke Fan View Post
    Grayson Allen? Marques Bolden?
    Technically, Grayson Allen's freshman year late season performance was overperformance, not underperformance. And Grayson's 2nd half of his junior year made him very, very, very unpopular.

    Grayson could have gone pro after his freshman, sophomore, or junior seasons and likely been a first round/early second round pick. But he's one of the very, very rare cases who wanted to be in college over the $$$ of the NBA.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  19. #2119
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    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    I tend to agree with this. Not only is his range very limited, he struggles around the rim if hes guarded. Most of the other NBA players with limited shotmaking are strong enough to score in heavy traffic. Lively is not there yet and doubt hes that kind of player any time soon.
    This limitation was evident in the Miami game. At least twice he had the ball near the rim after an offensive board. And both times, even with a 6-7 guy on him, he threw up a flailing, awkward put back that had little chance to go in. It wasnt a good look. Despite the fact that he has no ability to score whatsoever outside of open runs to the rim, some NBA team is going to take a chance on a 7-1 guy who runs like a gazelle and blocks shots.

  20. #2120
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    I don't think this is true, there are plenty of non-shooting centers still making huge impacts on NBA teams even in 2023. Nic Claxton is a borderline all-star this year who shoots no threes, and only 46% from the free throw line, but is 2nd in the league in blocked shots. There's plenty of guys who can't shoot but still are highly valued around the league. Robert Williams, Clint Capela, Mitchell Robinson, Kevon Looney, Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams, Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, etc.
    Or our own Mason Plumlee, who has been a double-double machine lately despite having precious little shooting range.

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