2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[UrinalCake]

I don’t know how much of this is a direct result of NIL, but those who feared the rich would get richer seem to be justified in their concerns.

[JasonEvans]

I don’t know how much of this is a direct result of NIL, but those who feared the rich would get richer seem to be justified in their concerns.

Either that or recruiting is going the way it has for almost a decade, with Duke and Kentucky cleaning up annually. Sure, there may be an Arkansas or Miami that rises up to grab a player or two either from high school or the portal thanks to NIL, but for the most part we see the top kids doing what they always have... going to Duke and Kentucky.

[1991 duke law]

In the 2023 ESPN Top 100, UK now has commitments from #1, #2, #5, #8 and #26. Duke has commitments from #4, #7, #13, #16 and #39.
Kentucky is now the #1 Class but Duke is not far behind. No one else is even close. http://www.espn.com/college-sports/b...playerrankings

I am not complaining for one second about the incredible class that we have coming in next year. But it is a large step behind Kentucky.

1, 2, 5 and 8?

4 of the top 8 recruits. That is crazy. Reminds me of the historically great class of Zion, RJ, Cam and Tre.

I guess Tyus, Okafor, Grayson and Winslow was pretty damn good too. And unlike the Zion class, they won it all. So maybe they are the best class? So far.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The Kentucky class is going to be... interesting. Wagner and Dillingham are both ball-dominant guards. How are they going to coexist in the same backcourt? The way the Kentucky has recruited the Class of 2023, you have to assume they are going to have substantial roster turnover after this season. I assume Oscar Tshiebwe, Sahvir Wheeler, Antonio Reeves, and maybe even Jacob Toppin and CJ Frederick are going to leave for the pros (NBA/G-League/Overseas). Cason Wallace, Chris Livingston, and Daimion Collins are most likely going to the NBA. They are going to have a lot of new faces. If they hold onto Toppin and/or Collins, they are going to be a very tough team to beat next year. They lack an obvious 4 man on the roster. Both current freshman Ugonna Kingsley and incoming 5-star Aaron Bradsahw are supremely athletic rim runners/rim protector types that are going to struggle to generate their own offense. Shooting will be a question for the team unless Edwards, Sheppard, and the guards are capable of making shots right out of the gate. Adou Thierro, a slender athletic wing on this year's team, could be a key rotation player for them next year. This is a throwback roster for them in many ways but it lacks that big, bullying frontcourt player like Bam Adebayo, Julius Randle, or DeMarcus Cousins that has been a staple of Calipari's tenure in Lexington.

[jaywilliams22]

I am not complaining for one second about the incredible class that we have coming in next year. But it is a large step behind Kentucky.

1, 2, 5 and 8?

4 of the top 8 recruits. That is crazy. Reminds me of the historically great class of Zion, RJ, Cam and Tre.

I guess Tyus, Okafor, Grayson and Winslow was pretty damn good too. And unlike the Zion class, they won it all. So maybe they are the best class? So far.

I don't see how a backcourt of Wagner and Dillingham works out. Both are incredibly ball-dominant players. I wouldn't be surprised if Dillingham never actually plays at UK.

[Dukehk]

I am not complaining for one second about the incredible class that we have coming in next year. But it is a large step behind Kentucky.

1, 2, 5 and 8?

4 of the top 8 recruits. That is crazy. Reminds me of the historically great class of Zion, RJ, Cam and Tre.

I guess Tyus, Okafor, Grayson and Winslow was pretty damn good too. And unlike the Zion class, they won it all. So maybe they are the best class? So far.

Not trying to be bias or anything, but it seems that class of players is not seen to be as good as say the Zion, RJ class.

At least at the top end, there isn't a consensus number 1 pick. Even someone like Wagner isn't projected to go top 5 in most mock drafts.

Obviously nobody knows how freshmen pan out in college, but by our own experiences, its just incredibly difficult to go far in the tournament relying on Freshmen only.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not trying to be bias or anything, but it seems that class of players is not seen to be as good as say the Zion, RJ class.

At least at the top end, there isn't a consensus number 1 pick. Even someone like Wagner isn't projected to go top 5 in most mock drafts.

Obviously nobody knows how freshmen pan out in college, but by our own experiences, its just incredibly difficult to go far in the tournament relying on Freshmen only.

I feel pretty confident that no team has ever gotten into the NCAA Tournament with only freshmen on the roster.

[kAzE]

I am not complaining for one second about the incredible class that we have coming in next year. But it is a large step behind Kentucky.

1, 2, 5 and 8?

4 of the top 8 recruits. That is crazy. Reminds me of the historically great class of Zion, RJ, Cam and Tre.

I guess Tyus, Okafor, Grayson and Winslow was pretty damn good too. And unlike the Zion class, they won it all. So maybe they are the best class? So far.

Not to be a downer, but so far through 3 seasons, there's a chance Zion could be the only star NBA player in that entire class. RJ is only 22, but it's been pretty rough so far. His best role in the league may not be the type of high usage player that he was at Duke. Cam occasionally has huge games, and has recently become a starter for the Knicks, but he's incredibly inconsistent. Hope I'm wrong and those guys keep getting better, but the early returns have been rather discouraging. There's a non-zero chance Tre Jones could be the 2nd "best" NBA player from that class. Tre missed last night's game vs the Warriors and the Spurs were blown out by 37. The Spurs have otherwise been surprisingly competitive with Tre starting at PG.

Based on rankings alone, sure, 2018 might be the best Duke recruiting class ever, but in terms of actual NBA talent (and college success), we've seen better ones. Certainly Elton Brand and Shane Battier in the class of 1997, or Jay Will, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer in the class of 1999 come to mind.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not to be a downer, but so far through 3 seasons, there's a chance Zion could be the only star NBA player in that entire class. RJ is only 22, but it's been pretty rough so far. His best role in the league may not be the type of high usage player that he was at Duke. Cam occasionally has huge games, and has recently become a starter for the Knicks, but he's incredibly inconsistent. Hope I'm wrong and those guys keep getting better, but the early returns have been rather discouraging. There's a non-zero chance Tre Jones could be the 2nd "best" NBA player from that class. Tre missed last night's game vs the Warriors and the Spurs were blown out by 37. The Spurs have otherwise been surprisingly competitive with Tre starting at PG.

Based on rankings alone, sure, 2018 might be the best Duke recruiting class ever, but in terms of actual NBA talent (and college success), we've seen better ones. Certainly Elton Brand and Shane Battier in the class of 1997, or Jay Will, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer in the class of 1999 come to mind.

Getting one NBA All-Star out of a recruiting class is a big deal. There are very few NBA All-Stars. I think you're setting your bar unreasonably high. Take the Class of 1999, for instance. Boozer was the only one that was an All-Star from that group. Jay Williams, of course, had an injury-shortened career while Mike Dunleavy, Jr. had a very long and good career but not one that lived up to his 3rd overall selection in the draft.

RJ Barrett still has a lot of career in front of him. His shot has not been very good this year, hitting only 30.6% from 3. If he gets that closer to his career average of 35%+, it's easy to see him averaging better than 20 pts/5 rebs/3asts per game. That's really good! Mike Dunleavy, Jr. topped out at 19 pts/5.5 rebs/3.5 asts. for just one season. Barrett already has a 20 pts/game season under his belt. Just the fact that Duke got 4 NBA guys, including a perennial All-Star out one recruiting class, is really, really good. How many recruiting classes in history have had that much talent?

[kAzE]

Getting one NBA All-Star out of a recruiting class is a big deal. There are very few NBA All-Stars. I think you're setting your bar unreasonably high. Take the Class of 1999, for instance. Boozer was the only one that was an All-Star from that group. Jay Williams, of course, had an injury-shortened career while Mike Dunleavy, Jr. had a very long and good career but not one that lived up to his 3rd overall selection in the draft.

RJ Barrett still has a lot of career in front of him. His shot has not been very good this year, hitting only 30.6% from 3. If he gets that closer to his career average of 35%+, it's easy to see him averaging better than 20 pts/5 rebs/3asts per game. That's really good! Mike Dunleavy, Jr. topped out at 19 pts/5.5 rebs/3.5 asts. for just one season. Barrett already has a 20 pts/game season under his belt. Just the fact that Duke got 4 NBA guys, including a perennial All-Star out one recruiting class, is really, really good. How many recruiting classes in history have had that much talent?

I'm not so down on RJ that I can't see a path for him to become a star, but as his career is currently progressing, I don't see him becoming a future all-star yet. He would need to become a significantly better shooter and playmaker in my opinion, which could happen, but NBA careers do not always have an upward trajectory. He's clearly not playing as well this season as last season or even his 2nd season in the league. I think he is more of a complimentary player, maybe the 3rd or 4th option on a good team. If he's the #1 or #2 guy, it'll be a team fighting for a play-in spot for the playoffs.

I love RJ's size and defensive versatility, but to me, he's just not good enough of an offensive player to be the alpha dog on an NBA team. Would love to see him get a chance to play for a better coach (I think Thibodeau is a bottom tier coach in the current NBA), and with a group of players who emphasize ball movement and provide better spacing. Something like what happened with Andrew Wiggins when he was traded to the Warriors. I think that would be the ideal role for RJ.

To your post, I do think Jay Williams was on track to become a household name and All-Star in the NBA. His game and charisma was clearly built for the modern NBA, and it was a tragedy that his career was cut short. Harry Giles was another guy whose career was derailed by injuries who could have become a star along side his classmate Jayson Tatum, who is pretty much inarguably the best Duke player in the NBA, and a first team All NBA lock so far this season, with a pretty strong case for MVP.

If you're talking just pure numbers, then yes, the 4 guys from the class of 2018 all currently being NBA starters is tough to argue against (though I don't see Cam being more than a back end rotation guy long term), but I think the top end of Battier and Brand's huge success in college and at the NBA level currently stands out to me the most. That class also included William Avery and Nate James, who were both damn good college players. We'll see what the future holds for the 2018 class. their stories are still being written.

[Kedsy]

…but I think the top end of Battier and Brand's huge success in college and at the NBA level currently stands out to me the most. That class also included William Avery and Nate James, who were both damn good college players. We'll see what the future holds for the 2018 class. their stories are still being written.

Duke’s 1997 freshman class did not include Nate James (he was in the previous class but had an injury redshirt year which is why he was on the 2001 champions). It did include Chris Burgess, though.

[JasonEvans]

Duke’s 1997 freshman class did not include Nate James (he was in the previous class but had an injury redshirt year which is why he was on the 2001 champions). It did include Chris Burgess, though.

Yup, that class was famously three Bs and an A.

Brand. Battier, Burgess, and Avery.

And I believe all three of the Bs were, at one time, ranked as the #1 player in the class.

[DukieInBrasil]

Not to be a downer, but so far through 3 seasons, there's a chance Zion could be the only star NBA player in that entire class. RJ is only 22, but it's been pretty rough so far. His best role in the league may not be the type of high usage player that he was at Duke. Cam occasionally has huge games, and has recently become a starter for the Knicks, but he's incredibly inconsistent. Hope I'm wrong and those guys keep getting better, but the early returns have been rather discouraging. There's a non-zero chance Tre Jones could be the 2nd "best" NBA player from that class. Tre missed last night's game vs the Warriors and the Spurs were blown out by 37. The Spurs have otherwise been surprisingly competitive with Tre starting at PG.

Based on rankings alone, sure, 2018 might be the best Duke recruiting class ever, but in terms of actual NBA talent (and college success), we've seen better ones. Certainly Elton Brand and Shane Battier in the class of 1997, or Jay Will, Mike Dunleavy and Carlos Boozer in the class of 1999 come to mind.

Shane Battier was a great player, and won Championships in college and the NBA, but it's hard to argue that he was comparable to Brand. For example, Battier was never an All-Star.
RJ's offensive inefficiency might improve over time, but his popularity with the Knicks fanbase might make an All-Star of him yet. I think he needs to be convinced that he should not think of himself as a first or second option on offense, which might help improve his efficiency but reduce his overall output. He's shooting a bit better than 40% FGs, which is not good, and seems to continue what we saw from him at Duke; a propensity to get to the rim, but a frustrating inability to finish when he gets there. Also, he remains a terrible FT shooter.
Cam remains a mystery, and i have also noted his incredible inconsistency.
I'm not sure why having "only" 1 "star" in a class with 4 guys solidly in the NBA, and with 3 of them continuing to expand their roles on their teams, should be thought of as a "downer".

[kAzE]

Shane Battier was a great player, and won Championships in college and the NBA, but it's hard to argue that he was comparable to Brand. For example, Battier was never an All-Star.
RJ's offensive inefficiency might improve over time, but his popularity with the Knicks fanbase might make an All-Star of him yet. I think he needs to be convinced that he should not think of himself as a first or second option on offense, which might help improve his efficiency but reduce his overall output. He's shooting a bit better than 40% FGs, which is not good, and seems to continue what we saw from him at Duke; a propensity to get to the rim, but a frustrating inability to finish when he gets there. Also, he remains a terrible FT shooter.
Cam remains a mystery, and i have also noted his incredible inconsistency.
I'm not sure why having "only" 1 "star" in a class with 4 guys solidly in the NBA, and with 3 of them continuing to expand their roles on their teams, should be thought of as a "downer".

I was referring to myself as a downer because I was posting a somewhat negative opinion about some Duke players. Also, I never compared Battier to Brand. We were comparing different recruiting classes, with Battier and Brand repping the 1997 class.

Additionally, I would not count Battier's lack of all-star games as a negative. I think in order to be a successful NBA player, you need to understand your role within the team concept and do the best you can within that role. Nobody did that better than Shane Battier, which is why he's a 2 time NBA champion who was constantly being sought after by high level NBA franchises. RJ's current role doesn't suit his game, which is why I think he's struggling to find success right now with the Knicks. I do think his situation has alot to do his struggles, and he may have thrived in a different situation. But he is a much harder player to fit within a lineup than a guy like Battier because of his lack of shooting ability coupled with his extreme desire to put up shots.

Another thing I didn't mention as a bit of a knock against the 2018 class: Zion's lack of availability. Yes, he is a bonafide star at the highest level, there is no question. But he's been out of the lineup WAY more often than in it. He is out once again tonight. To this point in his career, he has played in 96 out of a possible 260 regular season games since he was drafted (not even counting playoff/play-in games). That is terrible, and the main reason I currently cannot consider him even close to most other guys like him.

[SkyBrickey]

All four of those guys are currently NBA starters (Cam may or may not stick) and one is a superstar.

I’d love to know of any other recruiting class in the past 30 years that produced 4 NBA starters 4 years out.

Maybe one of the UK classes but I’d be surprised.

[SkyBrickey]

Actually I think we have a legit shot with this one too. Lively, Whitehead, Flip, Proctor, Mitchell. 4 out of the 5.

[kAzE]

In the 2023 ESPN Top 100, UK now has commitments from #1, #2, #5, #8 and #26. Duke has commitments from #4, #7, #13, #16 and #39.
Kentucky is now the #1 Class but Duke is not far behind. No one else is even close. http://www.espn.com/college-sports/b...playerrankings

I don’t mind Kentucky ending up with the better class at this point. These rankings are just for the incoming freshmen. The real recruiting is getting big time guys to stay after the first year. We’ve always had more success with these highly ranked freshmen when they are combined with impact guys who stuck around. (The Quinn cook model) And I think our 2023 class has good potential to step into a situation where they are not being counted on to do everything, as some of our more recent outstanding recruiting classes have been asked to do. Last year was another great example, where we had sophomores mark Williams and roach along with a junior leader in Wendell Moore, resulting in a final four run.

If even 1 or 2 of the guys from this current crop (maybe flip, maybe proctor, definitely schutt) stays 1 more season along with Jeremy roach, who I assume will be back for his senior season, we’re going to have a very dangerous squad next year.

[Southgate0809]

I was looking at the recruiting rankings. I found it interesting that UNC only has 2 commitments for next year. Leaky and Nance I believe are out of eligibility. I assume Bacot, Love, and maybe even Davis will declare for the draft, even though I think Love is the only one projected to even be drafted. It seemed like all 3 flirted with the idea of going pro after last season. That wouldn't leave them with much. They also tend to lose some guys in the transfer portal. Maybe Hubert is expecting to have some of those guys for 1 more year? Maybe expects to load up in the transfer portal? I just thought 2 recruits was a low number.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I was looking at the recruiting rankings. I found it interesting that UNC only has 2 commitments for next year. Leaky and Nance I believe are out of eligibility. I assume Bacot, Love, and maybe even Davis will declare for the draft, even though I think Love is the only one projected to even be drafted. It seemed like all 3 flirted with the idea of going pro after last season. That wouldn't leave them with much. They also tend to lose some guys in the transfer portal. Maybe Hubert is expecting to have some of those guys for 1 more year? Maybe expects to load up in the transfer portal? I just thought 2 recruits was a low number.

Bacot, Love, and Davis can easily make more money in college than the pros. I'd be surprised if they aren't in college jerseys next year.

Also, Davis is incredibly at leveraging the transfer portal. He'll find 1-2 contributors.

[Southgate0809]

Bacot, Love, and Davis can easily make more money in college than the pros. I'd be surprised if they aren't in college jerseys next year.

Also, Davis is incredibly at leveraging the transfer portal. He'll find 1-2 contributors.

Yeah, but for players at this level, their dream is the NBA. At this point in their careers, they're not getting any better. They're risking injury. If the thinking last year was that they can delay their dream 1 more year, make some NIL money, and then go pro, I don't see them staying in school any longer. Davis would be the likeliest exception in my mind.