2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[MarkD83]

I don't want to start another recruiting thread so I will add my comments about the NBA changes to OAD rules here.

The proposal looks like HS players can go right to the NBA since the age requirement will be lowered. Even if this happens it will NOT eliminate OADs. A player may come to college and then "blow up" and realize they are ready to enter the draft. This could occur after ONE year in college. The only true way to eliminate OADs is what is done in MLB. If you go to college you will not be drafted until after your junior year.

[scottdude8]

I don't want to start another recruiting thread so I will add my comments about the NBA changes to OAD rules here.

The proposal looks like HS players can go right to the NBA since the age requirement will be lowered. Even if this happens it will NOT eliminate OADs. A player may come to college and then "blow up" and realize they are ready to enter the draft. This could occur after ONE year in college. The only true way to eliminate OADs is what is done in MLB. If you go to college you will not be drafted until after your junior year.

100% agreed. As I wrote on the front page, we're already seeing a trend of some of the top recruits eschewing college to go the G-League Ignite route (or one of its fellows like OTE). The NBA rule change would increase the pool of players that eschews the NBA, but by no means eliminate all top-end talent from college.

In an ideal world, a HS player would be able to "test the draft waters" like college players can (yes, that would make recruiting harder, but it would be the most equitable situation for all players). Some HS players who may be drafted in the late first/early second round will choose to go pro, knowing that they'll be spending a lot of time in the G-League. Others in this situation might decide that they can optimize their professional income by improving their draft stock with a year or two in college, or prefer to develop with the buzz of high level college basketball (plus NIL money) rather than in half-empty G-League gyms. Honestly, this could improve Duke's recruiting pitch considering our facilities and development programs are almost on-par with professional teams (and maybe better than G-League teams).

Guys that are surefire Top 5 picks out of HS will probably go pro right away, meaning less Paolo's and Zion's. But it's not like all 5*s with NBA-capabilities will go pro out of HS... that wasn't the case before, and probably won't be the case now (with NIL helping in that regard). Our recruiting pitch will have to be tweaked, not overhauled... instead of, "Come to Duke to maximize your draft stock after this year and develop with the best tools and against the best competition", it'll be, "If you aren't happy with where you're projected in the draft right now, you definitely will be after a year or two at Duke... and Coach Scheyer and GM Rachel Baker are going to make sure you maximize your NIL income while you're here, especially since you'll be all over ESPN."

I think we're in pretty good shape either way

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I don't want to start another recruiting thread so I will add my comments about the NBA changes to OAD rules here.

The proposal looks like HS players can go right to the NBA since the age requirement will be lowered. Even if this happens it will NOT eliminate OADs. A player may come to college and then "blow up" and realize they are ready to enter the draft. This could occur after ONE year in college. The only true way to eliminate OADs is what is done in MLB. If you go to college you will not be drafted until after your junior year.

Yes, but simply allowing 18 year olds to go directly into the NBA will have a profound impact on OADs (in my opinion). The number of players who are absolute top tier talent won't be making college pit stops for 5 months. The next level of talent will still have to compete with those same players for draft spots, so there will be far fewer freshmen selected in the draft.

[flyingdutchdevil]

100% agreed. As I wrote on the front page, we're already seeing a trend of some of the top recruits eschewing college to go the G-League Ignite route (or one of its fellows like OTE). The NBA rule change would increase the pool of players that eschews the NBA, but by no means eliminate all top-end talent from college.

In an ideal world, a HS player would be able to "test the draft waters" like college players can (yes, that would make recruiting harder, but it would be the most equitable situation for all players). Some HS players who may be drafted in the late first/early second round will choose to go pro, knowing that they'll be spending a lot of time in the G-League. Others in this situation might decide that they can optimize their professional income by improving their draft stock with a year or two in college, or prefer to develop with the buzz of high level college basketball (plus NIL money) rather than in half-empty G-League gyms. Honestly, this could improve Duke's recruiting pitch considering our facilities and development programs are almost on-par with professional teams (and maybe better than G-League teams).

Guys that are surefire Top 5 picks out of HS will probably go pro right away, meaning less Paolo's and Zion's. But it's not like all 5*s with NBA-capabilities will go pro out of HS... that wasn't the case before, and probably won't be the case now (with NIL helping in that regard). Our recruiting pitch will have to be tweaked, not overhauled... instead of, "Come to Duke to maximize your draft stock after this year and develop with the best tools and against the best competition", it'll be, "If you aren't happy with where you're projected in the draft right now, you definitely will be after a year or two at Duke... and Coach Scheyer and GM Rachel Baker are going to make sure you maximize your NIL income while you're here, especially since you'll be all over ESPN."

I think we're in pretty good shape either way

Yeah. If the rules change, Duke will adapt. Duke has too strong a brand name, too many resources at hand, and too much incredible modern history for the program to not get really good talent.

And if Duke struggles, you can bet the whole college basketball landscape will struggle. I am not predicting this is going to happen, but I suspect college ball to be a lot less interesting for the average viewer if the Paolos and Zions aren't there. Basketball is a star's sport; and the stars will be ZAD (zero and done).

[scottdude8]

Yeah. If the rules change, Duke will adapt. Duke has too strong a brand name, too many resources at hand, and too much incredible modern history for the program to not get really good talent.

And if Duke struggles, you can bet the whole college basketball landscape will struggle. I am not predicting this is going to happen, but I suspect college ball to be a lot less interesting for the average viewer if the Paolos and Zions aren't there. Basketball is a star's sport; and the stars will be ZAD (zero and done).

Well, was college basketball a lot less interesting from 1995-2005? Was March Madness any less popular? I doubt it... although I'm not going to bother comparing numbers since the media landscapes were so dissimilar.

While you're right that basketball is a star's sport, I think college sports are more about stories. Rivalries are bigger in college sports than in the pros, upsets are more common and of larger magnitude, etc. Losing a handful of top players won't affect that. If anything, we'll get more "where the heck did that guy come from?!?!" type stories that are made for ESPN.

I don't think it'll be better or worse, just different. While the very casual fan might jump ship for reasons you described, the ability to be a ZAD might (keyword might) lead to a decrease in OADs and thus more continuity from year to year, which could bring some purists back to the fold.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, was college basketball a lot less interesting from 1995-2005? Was March Madness any less popular? I doubt it... although I'm not going to bother comparing numbers since the media landscapes were so dissimilar.

While you're right that basketball is a star's sport, I think college sports are more about stories. Rivalries are bigger in college sports than in the pros, upsets are more common and of larger magnitude, etc. Losing a handful of top players won't affect that. If anything, we'll get more "where the heck did that guy come from?!?!" type stories that are made for ESPN.

I don't think it'll be better or worse, just different. While the very casual fan might jump ship for reasons you described, the ability to be a ZAD might (keyword might) lead to a decrease in OADs and thus more continuity from year to year, which could bring some purists back to the fold.

I mean, you didn't have Lebron or Kobe in college (amongst plenty of others). These are probably two of the most dynamic players in the last 25 years. So yes, I'd argue college ball was "worse" than if those players would have played college ball.

Look at Zion - he was the face of college ball, made Duke likable for a season (how he did that is incredible), and was the college star of the last decade. The sport is no longer getting Zions, Anthony Davises, or Greg Odens.

For the "purists" who love seeing starters stay for multiple years, this is great. For the average fan, not so great.

[scottdude8]

I mean, you didn't have Lebron or Kobe in college (amongst plenty of others). These are probably two of the most dynamic players in the last 25 years. So yes, I'd argue college ball was "worse" than if those players would have played college ball.

Look at Zion - he was the face of college ball, made Duke likable for a season (how he did that is incredible), and was the college star of the last decade. The sport is no longer getting Zions, Anthony Davises, or Greg Odens.

For the "purists" who love seeing starters stay for multiple years, this is great. For the average fan, not so great.

True. I'd argue that there's a difference between the average "basketball fan" (who was already likely more interested in the NBA anyways) and the average "college basketball fan". But that's splitting hairs

FWIW, I don't think it's 100% that Zion would've gone straight to the pros, although maybe I'm in the minority there. Out of high school he was RSCI #4 and there were legitimate concerns about how his style of play and his body would work against top competition. He likely would've been a first round pick, probably even a lottery pick, but I doubt he'd have gone #1 overall. If he had access to NIL, given his social media prowess, he could've reasonably decided he'd rather develop for a year at Duke and up his draft stock (while making solid NIL money) than be a fringe lottery pick that would have to fight for an NBA role. It's an interesting thought experiment that's challenging to do completely objectively given what we now know, but I imagine we'll have plenty of case studies in the coming years.

[HayYou]

True. I'd argue that there's a difference between the average "basketball fan" (who was already likely more interested in the NBA anyways) and the average "college basketball fan". But that's splitting hairs

FWIW, I don't think it's 100% that Zion would've gone straight to the pros, although maybe I'm in the minority there. Out of high school he was RSCI #4 and there were legitimate concerns about how his style of play and his body would work against top competition. He likely would've been a first round pick, probably even a lottery pick, but I doubt he'd have gone #1 overall. If he had access to NIL, given his social media prowess, he could've reasonably decided he'd rather develop for a year at Duke and up his draft stock (while making solid NIL money) than be a fringe lottery pick that would have to fight for an NBA role. It's an interesting thought experiment that's challenging to do completely objectively given what we now know, but I imagine we'll have plenty of case studies in the coming years.

I think he WOULD have gone pro out of HS and it would have cost him around 100m long term. Assuming that going to college had no impact on his injury status.

He'd have been drafted in the lottery. Possibly towards the end of it, but probably in that 5-10 range. He'd have gotten a shoe deal, from someone. But it would have been speculative and cheap for the company. It probably would have been in the 4ish year range (either 3-4 with tons of options for the shoe company to exit early or extend it for another year or 2 on the cheap) for 10ish million dollars. Total. Not per year. TOTAL.

He got 5 years and 75 million total from Nike after Duke. So that is an extra 50+ million, at least, and that is if he'd gotten a best possible deal based on his HS rep. After his huge year at Duke he got an extra 20+ million in endorsements over his rookie deal relative to what he'd have gotten out of HS. He probably would have signed almost as many deals out of HS, but they'd have been for 100Ks rather than millions per year.

So, yeah, Zion probably made an extra 100m out of Duke because he signed bigger deals initially out of Duke than he would have out of HS.

But Zion is an outlier. Most kids, even top draft picks, won't sign deal like Zion did. Paolo didn't, and he's just about the prototype for NBA PFs right now. He got some nice deals, and they'll go up if he succeeds and his team wins.

But almost no one is going to get Zion like deals. Everyone is losing their minds over that 7+ft unicorn out of France, but he's not going to get Zion money. There are long term, perennial all stars in the NBA that aren't getting Zion endorsement deals. Not even half that amount. So Zion might not be the best one to use as an example of why kids should go to school. A kid ranked in the 7--10 range might be a late lottery after HS, or top 5 after a OAD year, but his endorsements might only go up 10-15% by excelling in college. Zion's endorsements went up 20-40 times, rather than 10-15%. That won't be oft replicated.

I follow HS recruiting aggressively. The only kid playing HS sports right now who is likely to sign some big deals out of College (or HS) is Arch Manning. And he's a QB legacy heading to Texas. Other players will sign some nice NIL deals. More in college FB (multiple years in school) than hoops. But we are talking about 3-6 million over 3-4 years. After college, a few will sign deals that are far closer to Kyrie's rookie year than Zion's. There are no real Hoops prospects likely to cash in like Zion. I don't care what happens to them or where it happens after HS.

Zion was a unicorn. I don't see anyone on the horizon likely to do even half that well out of HS. Maybe not 25% as well.

[cato]

FWIW, I don't think it's 100% that Zion would've gone straight to the pros, although maybe I'm in the minority there.

The majority thought he was going to South Carolina, so no shame being in the minority.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The majority thought he was going to South Carolina, so no shame being in the minority.

FWIW, most of the crystal balls for Zion were for Clemson before he surprisingly committed to Duke. If I recall correctly, there was some late buzz from Kentucky sources on twitter. That was sort of similar to the Dereck Lively recruitment with regards to Kentucky buzz on twitter. The crystal balls for Lively all poured in for Duke over the weekend once he set a commitment date. It's really fun to watch the sentiment change like that in favor of Duke (less so in the reverse direction, obviously).

https://247sports.com/PlayerInstitut...rtPredictions/

[JasonEvans]

Zion was a unicorn. I don't see anyone on the horizon likely to do even half that well out of HS. Maybe not 25% as well.

Well... I mean, it isn't like you (or anyone else) saw Zion coming either. No one was saying Zion was the top player in his high school class. It really wasn't until Duke's trip to Canada that folks started to buzz a bit more about Zion as something more than just another top 5 player in the class. So, you may not see another Zion on the horizon right now... but you would not have seen Zion either a few months before he exploded.

There have been plenty of great dunkers in high school who had tremendous Twitter/Insta/TikTok followings... but none of them turned into the force of nature that was Zion, capturing the nation's attention the way he did. There is no way to predict who will be like that next. It could be that we go ten or twenty years before having another guy who captivates the basketball attention like that, but it could be less. It ain't impossible that DJ Wagner becomes that... or Naas Cunningham... or Cameron Boozer... or Cooper Flagg.

[elvis14]

Well... I mean, it isn't like you (or anyone else) saw Zion coming either. No one was saying Zion was the top player in his high school class. It really wasn't until Duke's trip to Canada that folks started to buzz a bit more about Zion as something more than just another top 5 player in the class. So, you may not see another Zion on the horizon right now... but you would not have seen Zion either a few months before he exploded.

There have been plenty of great dunkers in high school who had tremendous Twitter/Insta/TikTok followings... but none of them turned into the force of nature that was Zion, capturing the nation's attention the way he did. There is no way to predict who will be like that next. It could be that we go ten or twenty years before having another guy who captivates the basketball attention like that, but it could be less. It ain't impossible that DJ Wagner becomes that... or Naas Cunningham... or Cameron Boozer... or Cooper Flagg.

I had watched a few of Zion's High School games and he was obviously a beast but the competition level was so low it was hard to get overly excited. Then we saw him play in Canada and I was like "Holy Crap this kid is going to be absolutely amazing". It was a light bulb coming on moment. Then he gets drafted and as amazing as he was I was wondering just how well it would translate to the NBA. First game I saw him play in was a pre-season game against Utah with the reigning NBA defensive player of the year Rudy Gobert (if I'm remembering correctly). Zion did the same thing to the NBA guys that he did to the college guys that he did to the high school guys. I still think he's amazing and hope he can stay healthy.

[JasonEvans]

Not sure if folks noticed this but Jeff Capel landed a pretty nice recruit the other day. Four star guard (ranked #75 by 247) Jayland Lowe chose the Panthers. Lowe saw his stock shoot up after playing really well at the Peach Jam. He is Capel's third recruit of the 2023 class giving Pitt one of the top 15 classes in the nation right now (it is still very early in the 2023 cycle).

The really impressive thing to me is that Capel is getting these kids despite the fact that many folks think he won't even be on the job in 2023. He has not been a great recruiter thus far at Pitt and his teams have struggled to get out of the ACC basement. And this commitment comes after a pretty darn successful off-season for Capel where he landed a trio of decent transfers and also brought in top 50 freshman PG Dior Johnson.

I'm not saying Pitt is suddenly going to jump to the middle of the pack in the ACC, but they may not be a total doormat this season and -- somehow -- Capel is convincing good recruits to come play for him in the future, despite how uncertain that future appears to be.

Props to him!! I am certainly rooting for him to turn it around and get Pitt back toward the top of the conference.

[53n206]

Not sure if folks noticed this but Jeff Capel landed a pretty nice recruit the other day. Four star guard (ranked #75 by 247) Jayland Lowe chose the Panthers. Lowe saw his stock shoot up after playing really well at the Peach Jam. He is Capel's third recruit of the 2023 class giving Pitt one of the top 15 classes in the nation right now (it is still very early in the 2023 cycle).

The really impressive thing to me is that Capel is getting these kids despite the fact that many folks think he won't even be on the job in 2023. He has not been a great recruiter thus far at Pitt and his teams have struggled to get out of the ACC basement. And this commitment comes after a pretty darn successful off-season for Capel where he landed a trio of decent transfers and also brought in top 50 freshman PG Dior Johnson.

I'm not saying Pitt is suddenly going to jump to the middle of the pack in the ACC, but they may not be a total doormat this season and -- somehow -- Capel is convincing good recruits to come play for him in the future, despite how uncertain that future appears to be.

Props to him!! I am certainly rooting for him to turn it around and get Pitt back toward the top of the conference.

Many of us are rooting for him and thus for Pitt

[heyman25]

He is on now ESPN 2. I tuned and in he is getting a lot of broadcasters attention. He looks a bit like Tyrese Proctor.

Jared McCain getting a lot of attention with his high IQ mentioned. He loves pressure! Iced the game on the line.

Sebastian Mack where is he going ? 36 points!

[tommy]

UNC landed 6’10” four-star PF Zayden High. Texas kid playing at Compass Prep in AZ. Looks like a pretty good pickup for Hubert.

[Billy Dat]

The really impressive thing to me is that Capel is getting these kids despite the fact that many folks think he won't even be on the job in 2023. He has not been a great recruiter thus far at Pitt and his teams have struggled to get out of the ACC basement. And this commitment comes after a pretty darn successful off-season for Capel where he landed a trio of decent transfers and also brought in top 50 freshman PG Dior Johnson.

This aint a great look for Dior. Naturally, innocent until proven otherwise...
https://www.wtae.com/article/pittsbu...rges/41561069#

[DavidBenAkiva]

UNC landed 6’10” four-star PF Zayden High. Texas kid playing at Compass Prep in AZ. Looks like a pretty good pickup for Hubert.

They wanted Cam Whitmore (247 rank #14), but he committed to Villanova and so settled for Tyler Nickel (247 rank #80) in 2022.
They wanted TJ Power (247 rank #24), but he committed to Duke, and so settled for Zayden High (247 rank #48) in 2023.

Is this the start of a trend for Hubert Davis and staff?

[UrinalCake]

They wanted TJ Power (247 rank #24), but he committed to Duke, and so settled for Zayden High (247 rank #48) in 2023.

I would go back a step further and say they wanted (and landed) GG Jackson, but he decommitted and reclassified to go to South Carolina, so they moved on to targetting Power.

Unfortunately for us, UNC has done pretty well with lower ranked guys who stay four years. I guess if the alternative is them landing highly ranked guys who stay four years then we should be happy.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I would go back a step further and say they wanted (and landed) GG Jackson, but he decommitted and reclassified to go to South Carolina, so they moved on to targetting Power.

Unfortunately for us, UNC has done pretty well with lower ranked guys who stay four years. I guess if the alternative is them landing highly ranked guys who stay four years then we should be happy.

A number of guys on their current team are of the latter group. Bacot, Davis, and Love were all McDonald's All-Americans. Bacot and Love were both RSCI top-25 players in their respective classes.

Nickel and High are more in the range of Leaky Black (RSCI 64 in the Class of 2018). Black is obviously an outstanding defender. On the other hand, he hasn't done much of anything in terms of providing offense and was only a plus on the court by his junior year. Their roster has a bunch of other players ranked in the 50-100 range, including D'Marco Dunn, Dontretz Styles, and Puff Johnson. Few of those players have done much of anything in college. I'll cut Dunn and Styles a little slack as they were only freshmen last year. On the other hand, having 1 or 2 out of every 4 players they recruit turn into an ACC-caliber starter by the time they are a junior doesn't strike me as the best strategy in the long term.