2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[JayZee]

Grayson Allen? Marques Bolden?

Was Marques in a spot mid season, I guess his sophomore year, where he looked like a likely draft pick (even second round) and then underperformed and had to come back? I honestly don’t remember.

[dyedwab]

Was Marques in a spot mid season, I guess his sophomore year, where he looked like a likely draft pick (even second round) and then underperformed and had to come back? I honestly don’t remember.

I'd make the argument that, for about the past decade, just the very fact that Duke recruited and you came means that you SHOULD be a one-and-done and not being one is a "failure". I'm not gonna look, but we seem to lost a whole helluva lot more player who aren't lottery picks or guaranteed 1st rounders than other places.

And, I'd argue, that's a recruiting issue.

(For a separate discussion - the role of NIL on player with uncertain draft status AND the NBA salary slotting and what should be (but clearly isn't) its effect on player decisions.)

[arnie]

I'd make the argument that, for about the past decade, just the very fact that Duke recruited and you came means that you SHOULD be a one-and-done and not being one is a "failure". I'm not gonna look, but we seem to lost a whole helluva lot more player who aren't lottery picks or guaranteed 1st rounders than other places.

And, I'd argue, that's a recruiting issue.

(For a separate discussion - the role of NIL on player with uncertain draft status AND the NBA salary slotting and what should be (but clearly isn't) its effect on player decisions.)

That’s a fact Jack. They are coming to Duke to be OADs; the kids coming to UNCheat are coming for the academics?🤬

[JasonEvans]

I just want to be clear, because some folks seem to not be considering this...

NBA teams are not drafting the current player you see on the floor. Especially in the case of someone like Lively who is still a few weeks (Feb 12) from turning 19, they are drafting what they think he will be in a couple/few years. For all intents and purposes, a NBA team can keep a player for the first 8 or so years of their career. A team looking at Lively is thinking about what he will be when he is 22-25. He will be significantly stronger and -- according to reports from practices and the such -- he may even have the ability to knock down 3s. He is almost certain to be a defensive menace.

I won't be at all surprised if he spends much of his first season in the G-League but I'd be more than willing to bet that Lively will be starting games for a NBA team by the time he is in his mid-20s. He's probably not a lottery pick, but he's also probably gonna be gone by the time the first round is done.

[dukelifer]

I just want to be clear, because some folks seem to not be considering this...

NBA teams are not drafting the current player you see on the floor. Especially in the case of someone like Lively who is still a few weeks (Feb 12) from turning 19, they are drafting what they think he will be in a couple/few years. For all intents and purposes, a NBA team can keep a player for the first 8 or so years of their career. A team looking at Lively is thinking about what he will be when he is 22-25. He will be significantly stronger and -- according to reports from practices and the such -- he may even have the ability to knock down 3s. He is almost certain to be a defensive menace.

I won't be at all surprised if he spends much of his first season in the G-League but I'd be more than willing to bet that Lively will be starting games for a NBA team by the time he is in his mid-20s. He's probably not a lottery pick, but he's also probably gonna be gone by the time the first round is done.

That is the bet- but I would say he is behind many big men Freshman- particularly with regard to strength. But his size and bounce is probably enough for a late first round pick.

[flyingdutchdevil]

That is the bet- but I would say he is behind many big men Freshman- particularly with regard to strength. But his size and bounce is probably enough for a late first round pick.

Yeah...of all of our freshman, Lively is the one I want back (for completely selfish reasons). He is a defensive monster who can't stay on the floor for long enough. He has no offensive skills but you can imagine what an offseason getting stronger and focusing on footwork can accomplish.

But he's gone. There isn't a cell in my body that thinks he'll come back. And he should go; a first round contract means a) you get paid great money, b) you don't have non-basketball commitments, and c) the NBA team that drafted you will invest in your future.

[SouthernDukie]

I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.

And the kind of sad thing is that, excluding Jeremy, the freshmen that should be leaving based on performance (not potential) from this season are Flip, Proctor, Mitchell... and then Whitehead (injuries, but was rounding into form) and Lively.

But because of 'potential' Lively and Whitehead are 100% gone, and the guys that *might* have stayed another year have done so well they will probably go too. And once again, the bottom line is that it leaves the cup pretty bare for Duke. Oh sure, we'll have new stud freshmen to fill in, but the consistency that most of us miss in this OAD era will once again be out the door. It's great for the players, but I'd argue it's not so great for the long-term progress of the different Duke teams. And it's certainly frustrating for many of us as we often lose in the tournament to teams with more cohesion and also don't form bonds with upperclassmen like we used to.

To put it straight - I LOATHE the OAD era. Yes, I have greatly enjoyed some of the players that have come thru (Zion, cough-cough). But the overall phenomenon I have not liked in the least. And it especially sucks that the team down the road continually seems to keep their guys and build stronger teams. It just stinks.

[mkirsh]

And the kind of sad thing is that, excluding Jeremy, the freshmen that should be leaving based on performance (not potential) from this season are Flip, Proctor, Mitchell... and then Whitehead (injuries, but was rounding into form) and Lively.

But because of 'potential' Lively and Whitehead are 100% gone, and the guys that *might* have stayed another year have done so well they will probably go too. And once again, the bottom line is that it leaves the cup pretty bare for Duke. Oh sure, we'll have new stud freshmen to fill in, but the consistency that most of us miss in this OAD era will once again be out the door. It's great for the players, but I'd argue it's not so great for the long-term progress of the different Duke teams. And it's certainly frustrating for many of us as we often lose in the tournament to teams with more cohesion and also don't form bonds with upperclassmen like we used to.

To put it straight - I LOATHE the OAD era. Yes, I have greatly enjoyed some of the players that have come thru (Zion, cough-cough). But the overall phenomenon I have not liked in the least. And it especially sucks that the team down the road continually seems to keep their guys and build stronger teams. It just stinks.

There is an alternate universe out there somewhere where Kennedy Meeks (correctly) gets called for being out of bounds in the Gonzaga game or Joel Berry (correctly) gets called for a charge against Arkansas, Wendell Carter (correctly) gets rewarded for taking a charge, Nick Ward of MSU misses that 3, Baylor takes out UNC last season, and we are suddenly talking about a Duke dynasty under OAD while UNC is middling. We unfortunately don't live in that universe but it sounds nice!

[DavidBenAkiva]

And the kind of sad thing is that, excluding Jeremy, the freshmen that should be leaving based on performance (not potential) from this season are Flip, Proctor, Mitchell... and then Whitehead (injuries, but was rounding into form) and Lively.

But because of 'potential' Lively and Whitehead are 100% gone, and the guys that *might* have stayed another year have done so well they will probably go too. And once again, the bottom line is that it leaves the cup pretty bare for Duke. Oh sure, we'll have new stud freshmen to fill in, but the consistency that most of us miss in this OAD era will once again be out the door. It's great for the players, but I'd argue it's not so great for the long-term progress of the different Duke teams. And it's certainly frustrating for many of us as we often lose in the tournament to teams with more cohesion and also don't form bonds with upperclassmen like we used to.

To put it straight - I LOATHE the OAD era. Yes, I have greatly enjoyed some of the players that have come thru (Zion, cough-cough). But the overall phenomenon I have not liked in the least. And it especially sucks that the team down the road continually seems to keep their guys and build stronger teams. It just stinks.

Objectively, UNC is in the midst of their worst 4-year stretch in the modern history of the program.

2020: 14-19, last place in the ACC
2021: 18-11, finished 5th in the ACC, NCAAT 8-seed, lost by 23 points to Wisconsin in the Round of 64, Roy retires
2022: 29-10, finished T-2nd in the ACC, NCAAT 8-seed, National Runner-Up, blew the largest halftime lead in NCAA Title Game history
2023: Preseason #1, fastest such team to lose 4 games, currently unranked, 14-6 record T-3rd in ACC

The last time UNC had 4 consecutive seasons losing 10+ games was 1955. At this point, they are very likely to lose at least 4 more games this season. The saving grace of this stretch was a fluke 6-week stretch in which 1) they beat Duke twice, and 2) they were gifted an unusually easy path to the Final Four (Baylor, the #1 seed, was really banged up and then they faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8). Looking ahead, they are likely losing as many as 4 or all 5 of their starters after this season. Maybe they get lucky again and turn things around in February. Maybe they don't (see UCLA, 2022, a team that had similar "vibes") and get bounced in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Either way, they are not playing up to their program standards. They haven't won the ACC outright since 2017 and haven't won the ACC Tournament since 2016. Are they a "stronger program"? Duke has won both the ACC Regular Season Record (2022) and ACC Tournament (2019) more recently and both went to the Final Four last year. Duke also hasn't had a losing record since 1995. UNC has had losing records 3 times during that stretch and each has won 3 National Titles. I don't see this juggernaut.

[UrinalCake]

Objectively, UNC is in the midst of their worst 4-year stretch in the modern history of the program.
2020: 14-19, last place in the ACC
2021: 18-11, finished 5th in the ACC, NCAAT 8-seed, lost by 23 points to Wisconsin in the Round of 64, Roy retires
2022: 29-10, finished T-2nd in the ACC, NCAAT 8-seed, National Runner-Up, blew the largest halftime lead in NCAA Title Game history
2023: Preseason #1, fastest such team to lose 4 games, currently unranked, 14-6 record T-3rd in ACC

2021: finished season with 85-62 blowout loss to Wisconsin in NCAAT
2020: finished season with 81-53 blowout loss to Syracuse in ACCT
2019: finished season with 97-80 blowout loss to Auburn in NCAAT
2018: finished season with 86-65 blowout loss to Texas A&M in NCAAT

Unfortunately they can also say that they have been to three out of the past six national championship games. But mercifully for us, two of those have ended in gut-wrenching losses.

[MChambers]

There is an alternate universe out there somewhere where Kennedy Meeks (correctly) gets called for being out of bounds in the Gonzaga game or Joel Berry (correctly) gets called for a charge against Arkansas, Wendell Carter (correctly) gets rewarded for taking a charge, Nick Ward of MSU misses that 3, Baylor takes out UNC last season, and we are suddenly talking about a Duke dynasty under OAD while UNC is middling. We unfortunately don't live in that universe but it sounds nice!

Kenny Goins of MSU, not Nick Ward. But I agree with your point.

[DavidBenAkiva]

2021: finished season with 85-62 blowout loss to Wisconsin in NCAAT
2020: finished season with 81-53 blowout loss to Syracuse in ACCT
2019: finished season with 97-80 blowout loss to Auburn in NCAAT
2018: finished season with 86-65 blowout loss to Texas A&M in NCAAT

Unfortunately they can also say that they have been to three out of the past six national championship games. But mercifully for us, two of those have ended in gut-wrenching losses.

That's true. But if you look at the big picture, they have had about 6 weeks of bliss in between about four years of misery. This great gnashing of teeth on this board over their perceived success is off base in my view.

[Kedsy]

Objectively, UNC is in the midst of their worst 4-year stretch in the modern history of the program.

2020: 14-19, last place in the ACC
2021: 18-11, finished 5th in the ACC, NCAAT 8-seed, lost by 23 points to Wisconsin in the Round of 64, Roy retires
2022: 29-10, finished T-2nd in the ACC, NCAAT 8-seed, National Runner-Up, blew the largest halftime lead in NCAA Title Game history
2023: Preseason #1, fastest such team to lose 4 games, currently unranked, 14-6 record T-3rd in ACC

The last time UNC had 4 consecutive seasons losing 10+ games was 1955. At this point, they are very likely to lose at least 4 more games this season. The saving grace of this stretch was a fluke 6-week stretch in which 1) they beat Duke twice, and 2) they were gifted an unusually easy path to the Final Four (Baylor, the #1 seed, was really banged up and then they faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8). Looking ahead, they are likely losing as many as 4 or all 5 of their starters after this season. Maybe they get lucky again and turn things around in February. Maybe they don't (see UCLA, 2022, a team that had similar "vibes") and get bounced in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Either way, they are not playing up to their program standards. They haven't won the ACC outright since 2017 and haven't won the ACC Tournament since 2016. Are they a "stronger program"? Duke has won both the ACC Regular Season Record (2022) and ACC Tournament (2019) more recently and both went to the Final Four last year. Duke also hasn't had a losing record since 1995. UNC has had losing records 3 times during that stretch and each has won 3 National Titles. I don't see this juggernaut.

Thank you for saying this. If you look at Duke's OAD era (2015 to 2023 so far), Duke has been the better program. We've been the MUCH better program the past five years.

2015 to 2023

NCAA Championships: Duke 1, UNC 1
Final Fours: Duke 2, UNC 3
Elite Eights: Duke 4, UNC 3
Sweet 16s: Duke 5, UNC 5
ACCT champs: Duke 2, UNC 1
ACC reg season champs (including ties): Duke 1, UNC 3 (but none in the past three seasons (four if you assume they won't win it this season))
NCAA tournament record: Duke 19-5 (79.2%), UNC 21-5 (80.8%)
ACC tournament record: Duke 15-3 (83.3%), UNC 13-7 (65.0%)
Total post-season record: Duke 34-8 (81.0%), UNC 34-12 (73.9%)
ACC regular season record: Duke 109-47 (69.9%), UNC 103-52 (66.5%)
Overall record: Duke 233-67 (77.7%); UNC 222-90 (71.2%)
Top 5 finishes (AP final): Duke 2, UNC 2
Top 10 finishes (AP final): Duke 5, UNC 4
Top 15 finishes (AP final): Duke 6, UNC 5
Top 25 finishes (AP final): Duke 7, UNC 5
Unranked finishes (AP final): Duke 1, UNC 3

AP final rank:
2022: Duke #9, UNC unranked
2021: Duke unranked, UNC unranked
2020: Duke #11, UNC unranked
2019: Duke #1, UNC #3
2018: Duke #9, UNC #10
2017: UNC #6, Duke #7
2016: UNC #3, Duke #19
2015: Duke #4, UNC #15

There are a couple things in which UNC has been better (three final fours to two; three regular season ACC titles to one), but overall there's no way you can (accurately) say UNC has been the better program since Duke started relying on the multiple-OADs-per-season model.

[KKDL19]

To be honest, when some players add things to their games, sometimes it comes with mixed reviews. Foster has taken on more a scoring mentality and it has been observable by recruiting gurus. Some of which say he needs to go back to being a floor general, so this might have impacted how people view him. Now look at McCain. He has taken on the role of having the ball in his hand as a play maker for others and facilitator. Those same recruiting gurus views have resulted in his raise in the rankings.

My point is, player development isn't always based on immediate success, but looking at the bigger picture of a players overall skills. Foster isn't any less of a facilitator or passer etc.. than he was instead he is adding to his game game. I would not consider his fall in the rankings as an alarm. When Foster, McCain, Proctor and Roach (if either returns) means any of them are capable of facilitating an offense and capable of scoring the ball from all 3 Levels which I feel is a good thing.

[SouthernDukie]

There are a couple things in which UNC has been better (three final fours to two; three regular season ACC titles to one), but overall there's no way you can (accurately) say UNC has been the better program since Duke started relying on the multiple-OADs-per-season model.

Point taken. Perhaps last year's devastating losses (and they were beyond devastating) to them has colored my view. Along with the fact that this year they seem to presently be trending back upward while we are not. But that point aside, the other issue I pointed out was the fan perspective where we don't get to enjoy seeing teams grow from season to season with the same personnel in mass. And I do miss that terribly.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Thank you for saying this. If you look at Duke's OAD era (2015 to 2023 so far), Duke has been the better program. We've been the MUCH better program the past five years.

2015 to 2023

NCAA Championships: Duke 1, UNC 1
Final Fours: Duke 2, UNC 3
Elite Eights: Duke 4, UNC 3
Sweet 16s: Duke 5, UNC 5
ACCT champs: Duke 2, UNC 1
ACC reg season champs (including ties): Duke 1, UNC 3 (but none in the past three seasons (four if you assume they won't win it this season))
NCAA tournament record: Duke 19-5 (79.2%), UNC 21-5 (80.8%)
ACC tournament record: Duke 15-3 (83.3%), UNC 13-7 (65.0%)
Total post-season record: Duke 34-8 (81.0%), UNC 34-12 (73.9%)
ACC regular season record: Duke 109-47 (69.9%), UNC 103-52 (66.5%)
Overall record: Duke 233-67 (77.7%); UNC 222-90 (71.2%)
Top 5 finishes (AP final): Duke 2, UNC 2
Top 10 finishes (AP final): Duke 5, UNC 4
Top 15 finishes (AP final): Duke 6, UNC 5
Top 25 finishes (AP final): Duke 7, UNC 5
Unranked finishes (AP final): Duke 1, UNC 3

AP final rank:
2022: Duke #9, UNC unranked
2021: Duke unranked, UNC unranked
2020: Duke #11, UNC unranked
2019: Duke #1, UNC #3
2018: Duke #9, UNC #10
2017: UNC #6, Duke #7
2016: UNC #3, Duke #19
2015: Duke #4, UNC #15

There are a couple things in which UNC has been better (three final fours to two; three regular season ACC titles to one), but overall there's no way you can (accurately) say UNC has been the better program since Duke started relying on the multiple-OADs-per-season model.

I thought you hated that phrase...

[UrinalCake]

That's true. But if you look at the big picture, they have had about 6 weeks of bliss in between about four years of misery. This great gnashing of teeth on this board over their perceived success is off base in my view.

Coincidentally, or perhaps not, their dropoff has coincided with them starting to land OAD players. Not the wholesale classes like us, but Coby White, Cole Anthony, Nassir Little, Walker Kessler, etc. have not seen any tournament success. They still rely on five stars sticking around for three and four years.

[SouthernDukie]

Coincidentally, or perhaps not, their dropoff has coincided with them starting to land OAD players. Not the wholesale classes like us, but Coby White, Cole Anthony, Nassir Little, Walker Kessler, etc. have not seen any tournament success. They still rely on five stars sticking around for three and four years.

That's certainly how it appears to me (without doing Kedsy-like work checking out the raw data).

[bshrader]

Point taken. Perhaps last year's devastating losses (and they were beyond devastating) to them has colored my view. Along with the fact that this year they seem to presently be trending back upward while we are not. But that point aside, the other issue I pointed out was the fan perspective where we don't get to enjoy seeing teams grow from season to season with the same personnel in mass. And I do miss that terribly.

I'm not sure I would classify them as "trending back upward" either. Theyre currently 14-6, like us, and theyre 6-3 in conference, but have struggled on the road, much like us, as they're 1-3. Their only road win was at lowly Louisville. Theyre about to start a string of 3 out of 4 on the road, starting tonight at Cuse. They then get Pitt in Chapel Hill, followed by a trip to Cameron and then to Winston-Salem, so their road may get a little tougher starting tonight.

[Kedsy]

I thought you hated that phrase...

Got to speak the language your audience understands.