2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[CDu]

That's all true, but then let me ask you this question. Do you want to continue the max-out-on-5-stars-each-year recruiting policy? It has, as you note, done pretty damn well, but there has been noise on this board about Scheyer perhaps moving a bit away from this strategy. Do you think that would be a mistake?

I'm not DBA, but I think the answer for me is that there are multiple ways to win. Coach K clearly did better in his later years going with the one-and-done-heavy approach. He figured out that this was a way to maximize what he did well. I think it's fair to say that it wasn't a mistake for him to go to that approach, as his results were clearly better over his last 8 years than they were over his previous 8 years. And were it not for COVID, his success might have been even greater at the end.

It clearly wasn't a mistake for Calipari, whose best years came when HE was the king of landing the one-and-dones.

But it isn't the ONLY way to succeed. Kansas has done really well as a program under Bill Self, and have arguably done better without the one-and-done approach than they did with it (though to be fair, they have had very few one-and-done-heavy teams).

Will it be a mistake if Scheyer moves away from the one-and-done system? It's hard to say, because we have no idea what works best for Scheyer. But it's not inherently right or wrong.

[budwom]

When the very best players in a class express strong interest in Duke, it's hard to say no to them...this is all quite complicated, but Jon is a smart guy and he'll figure out what works for him.

[JGDUKE2008]

Mccain is list at 6'2 in a lot of places hes actually 6'4

[tommy]

My estimate of the number of future NBA players in the Final Four is 1 (Connecticut's point guard).
UNC got to the final game last year without an NBA player.
During the one-and-done era, there have been two mostly-freshman teams (Kentucky in 2012 and Duke in 2015) that have won a natty. Duke's 2022 team obviously came pretty close to pulling it off.
All of this is to say that I think Duke's recruiting strategy over the past decade is increasingly unlikely to produce national championships.
A better strategy, IMO, would be to mix in multi-year four-star recruits with one or two one-and-dones per year.

I don't think any of the above is terribly controversial (though I could always be proven wrong), but it leads me to a more idiosyncratic theory. K was obviously intimately involved with the NBA and its players during his time as head coach of USA basketball and, from all accounts, he greatly enjoyed his experience. Is it possible that K kept maxing out on five star recruits because he liked the connections it helped him build with the NBA, even as it became increasingly untenable as a win-a-natty strategy? I really don't mean this as a serious complaint - we've been incredibly lucky as Duke fans - but I do wonder whether K might have been (perhaps subconsciously) pursuing multiple objectives over the past decade.

No it is not.

[Kfanarmy]

My estimate of the number of future NBA players in the Final Four is 1 (Connecticut's point guard).
UNC got to the final game last year without an NBA player.
During the one-and-done era, there have been two mostly-freshman teams (Kentucky in 2012 and Duke in 2015) that have won a natty. Duke's 2022 team obviously came pretty close to pulling it off.
All of this is to say that I think Duke's recruiting strategy over the past decade is increasingly unlikely to produce national championships.
A better strategy, IMO, would be to mix in multi-year four-star recruits with one or two one-and-dones per year.

I don't think any of the above is terribly controversial (though I could always be proven wrong), but it leads me to a more idiosyncratic theory. K was obviously intimately involved with the NBA and its players during his time as head coach of USA basketball and, from all accounts, he greatly enjoyed his experience. Is it possible that K kept maxing out on five star recruits because he liked the connections it helped him build with the NBA, even as it became increasingly untenable as a win-a-natty strategy? I really don't mean this as a serious complaint - we've been incredibly lucky as Duke fans - but I do wonder whether K might have been (perhaps subconsciously) pursuing multiple objectives over the past decade.

I guess we'll see, but I think the end of the COIVD 6 year seniors will have an impact as well, that will mitigate some of the chaos we've seen the past two years.

[DavidBenAkiva]

That's all true, but then let me ask you this question. Do you want to continue the max-out-on-5-stars-each-year recruiting policy? It has, as you note, done pretty damn well, but there has been noise on this board about Scheyer perhaps moving a bit away from this strategy. Do you think that would be a mistake?

I think Jon Scheyer is doing a great job with recruiting but is playing a game that has a lot of downside to it.

To be successful, you have to have talent. We both agree on that. Most National Title teams have a good number of future pros. Duke sells itself as a launching pad for a pro career. So Duke is in the position of attracting players that want to go to the NBA and then hoping they get there so that the sales pitch holds. The NBA Draft is typically filled with more freshmen one-and-done types that sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Thus, the odds of finding guys that 1) have pro potential, and 2) want or need to stick around for 2 or more years are pretty slim. This means that Scheyer, if he wants to keep "the Brotherhood" thing going is going to have to be really, really good at finding players that are talented enough to play right away but maybe not so talented that they leave right away. More Wendell Moores and Mark Williams than AJ Griffins and Trevor Keels. It's a tightrope to walk. Based on Proctor, maybe he has found that so far.

Scheyer said in his interview with The Athletic that we won't see as many big freshmen classes. I think the number of freshmen might go down by 1-2 and that instead of 2-3 one-and-dones most years, we might see 1-2. It's a subtlte change instead of a sea change. Duke is still going to go after future pros (and hopes that most of them make it there eventually). There will still be one-and-dones. There is just less margin for error with regards to finding future pros.

The two things Scheyer has that Coach K didn't have for most of his time are 1) NIL and 2) the one-time transfer waiver. Scheyer can back-fill positions on the roster in a way that Coach K couldn't if a player leaves early. How different would 2016 have looked, for example, if Coach K could have found an experienced PG instead of Derryck Thornton and another frontcourt player to complement Jefferson and Plumee? Scheyer can turn to the portal if a player unexpectedly leaves early. He can also tap into NIL to keep some of these borderline kids on the roster for another year.

It's not going to be easy, but so far the returns are looking very promising.

[WHOneedsSOX]

I know absolutely nothing about this guy other than he's 7' tall but Kel'el Ware just entered the portal. Was a top 10 recruit last year.

[CDu]

I know absolutely nothing about this guy other than he's 7' tall but Kel'el Ware just entered the portal. Was a top 10 recruit last year.

Ware is stylistically a lot like Lively, just not as good. He has comparable talent, but there were real concerns about the "motor." Ware outplayed Lively in the All Star games last Spring, for what little that's worth.

That said, I would be shocked if he ended up at Duke.

[simplyluvin]

I think Jon Scheyer is doing a great job with recruiting but is playing a game that has a lot of downside to it.

To be successful, you have to have talent. We both agree on that. Most National Title teams have a good number of future pros. Duke sells itself as a launching pad for a pro career. So Duke is in the position of attracting players that want to go to the NBA and then hoping they get there so that the sales pitch holds. The NBA Draft is typically filled with more freshmen one-and-done types that sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Thus, the odds of finding guys that 1) have pro potential, and 2) want or need to stick around for 2 or more years are pretty slim. This means that Scheyer, if he wants to keep "the Brotherhood" thing going is going to have to be really, really good at finding players that are talented enough to play right away but maybe not so talented that they leave right away. More Wendell Moores and Mark Williams than AJ Griffins and Trevor Keels. It's a tightrope to walk. Based on Proctor, maybe he has found that so far.

Scheyer said in his interview with The Athletic that we won't see as many big freshmen classes. I think the number of freshmen might go down by 1-2 and that instead of 2-3 one-and-dones most years, we might see 1-2. It's a subtlte change instead of a sea change. Duke is still going to go after future pros (and hopes that most of them make it there eventually). There will still be one-and-dones. There is just less margin for error with regards to finding future pros.

The two things Scheyer has that Coach K didn't have for most of his time are 1) NIL and 2) the one-time transfer waiver. Scheyer can back-fill positions on the roster in a way that Coach K couldn't if a player leaves early. How different would 2016 have looked, for example, if Coach K could have found an experienced PG instead of Derryck Thornton and another frontcourt player to complement Jefferson and Plumee? Scheyer can turn to the portal if a player unexpectedly leaves early. He can also tap into NIL to keep some of these borderline kids on the roster for another year.

It's not going to be easy, but so far the returns are looking very promising.

You're raising the fairly small needle that Coach Scheyer needs to, and looks like he is trying to, thread. I believe there is a way for Duke and a few select schools to have our cake and eat it, in that we can still get the transcendent OADs (the 1 to 2 that you mention) each year - maybe not every year but our track record is pretty good for at least every two years - and keep one to three more starters around an extra year or two that offsets the larger OAD classes of the last several years. Then we plug holes with transfers with a strong NIL program to draw the best talent. It's not going to be easy, but I really believe Jon Scheyer can do it.

Being a college coach now more than ever is like playing GM. Which 5-stars do you go after, and do you need to go after more 3 and 4-stars for continuity? And so on...

[JasonEvans]

My friend, Duke was in the Final Four just last year. If you wrote this post 12 months ago, you would have concluded that one-and-dones were the way to go. In fact, since Duke has gone heavy into the OAD strategy beginning with the 2014-15 season, it has resulted in a National Title, another Final Four, two Elite 8s, another Sweet 16, and 3 ACC Tournament Titles (most in the ACC during that timespan). Compare that to ever other team out there and see how many can stack up. Villanova was arguably more successful and maybe Kansas and possibly UNC (if you exclude the losing seasons). And then...? Gonzaga? They also have had their best teams with one-and-done players (Zach Collins in 2017 and Chet Holmgren last year despite the early exit from the NCAA Tournament). Talent gets you a long way in the NCAA Tournament.

There are many ways to construct a National Title contender. The teams in the Final Four this year are proof of that.

You didn't even mention Jalen Suggs, who was the PG and man with the ball in his hands for the Zags team that came very, very close to winning a title.

[DavidBenAkiva]

You didn't even mention Jalen Suggs, who was the PG and man with the ball in his hands for the Zags team that came very, very close to winning a title.

That guy, too.

There are lots of examples.

[dlmzzz]

I think Jon Scheyer is doing a great job with recruiting but is playing a game that has a lot of downside to it.

To be successful, you have to have talent. We both agree on that. Most National Title teams have a good number of future pros. Duke sells itself as a launching pad for a pro career. So Duke is in the position of attracting players that want to go to the NBA and then hoping they get there so that the sales pitch holds. The NBA Draft is typically filled with more freshmen one-and-done types that sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Thus, the odds of finding guys that 1) have pro potential, and 2) want or need to stick around for 2 or more years are pretty slim. This means that Scheyer, if he wants to keep "the Brotherhood" thing going is going to have to be really, really good at finding players that are talented enough to play right away but maybe not so talented that they leave right away. More Wendell Moores and Mark Williams than AJ Griffins and Trevor Keels. It's a tightrope to walk. Based on Proctor, maybe he has found that so far.

Scheyer said in his interview with The Athletic that we won't see as many big freshmen classes. I think the number of freshmen might go down by 1-2 and that instead of 2-3 one-and-dones most years, we might see 1-2. It's a subtlte change instead of a sea change. Duke is still going to go after future pros (and hopes that most of them make it there eventually). There will still be one-and-dones. There is just less margin for error with regards to finding future pros.

The two things Scheyer has that Coach K didn't have for most of his time are 1) NIL and 2) the one-time transfer waiver. Scheyer can back-fill positions on the roster in a way that Coach K couldn't if a player leaves early. How different would 2016 have looked, for example, if Coach K could have found an experienced PG instead of Derryck Thornton and another frontcourt player to complement Jefferson and Plumee? Scheyer can turn to the portal if a player unexpectedly leaves early. He can also tap into NIL to keep some of these borderline kids on the roster for another year.

It's not going to be easy, but so far the returns are looking very promising.

I am still not clear how viable that is for Duke outside of grad transfers. Can Scheyer get the administration to approve a large number of credits to be transferred from another school if an upper class (i.e. experienced) player wants to come to Duke? I am wary of believing that will happen until we actually see an instance of it.

[sagegrouse]

I am still not clear how viable that is for Duke outside of grad transfers. Can Scheyer get the administration to approve a large number of credits to be transferred from another school if an upper class (i.e. experienced) player wants to come to Duke? I am wary of believing that will happen until we actually see an instance of it.

Isn't Rodney Hood, who transferred into the program as a junior, the only example? And since Rodney stayed only one season, he may not have cared if he lost a bunch of credits.

[-jk]

Isn't Rodney Hood, who transferred into the program as a junior, the only example? And since Rodney stayed only one season, he may not have cared if he lost a bunch of credits.

Roshown McLeod?

-jk

[roywhite]

Dahntay Jones also -- 2 years at Rutgers, and then 2 at Duke after sitting out 1 season

[sagegrouse]

Roshown McLeod?

-jk

Yes,of course, but that was 1996.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Isn't Rodney Hood, who transferred into the program as a junior, the only example? And since Rodney stayed only one season, he may not have cared if he lost a bunch of credits.

Rodney Hood spent two academic years at Duke and was enrolled in classes over the summer. He had to sit out a year after transferring as those were the rules at the time (same with Seth Curry, Dahntay Jones, and Roshawn McLeod).

Hood recently graduated from Duke. His parents are both educators and his wife is a former Duke Women's Basketball player.

[CDu]

Isn't Rodney Hood, who transferred into the program as a junior, the only example? And since Rodney stayed only one season, he may not have cared if he lost a bunch of credits.

Hood transferred after his freshman year, just like Curry and Obi did.

I suspect that freshman and sophomore transfers are the only possibilities other than grad transfers, and sophomore would be pushing it without the “transfer redshirt” year.

[sagegrouse]

Hood transferred after his freshman year, just like Curry and Obi did.

I suspect that freshman and sophomore transfers are the only possibilities other than grad transfers, and sophomore would be pushing it without the “transfer redshirt” year.

Thanks. You are correct. Hood played one year at Miss State and one year (after a sit-out year) at Duke.

[RetireVergaJersey]

Rodney Hood spent two academic years at Duke and was enrolled in classes over the summer. He had to sit out a year after transferring as those were the rules at the time (same with Seth Curry, Dahntay Jones, and Roshawn McLeod).

Hood recently graduated from Duke. His parents are both educators and his wife is a former Duke Women's Basketball player.

Congrats to Rodney on his degree.