2023 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[tommy]

And the kind of sad thing is that, excluding Jeremy, the freshmen that should be leaving based on performance (not potential) from this season are Flip, Proctor, Mitchell... and then Whitehead (injuries, but was rounding into form) and Lively.

But because of 'potential' Lively and Whitehead are 100% gone, and the guys that *might* have stayed another year have done so well they will probably go too. And once again, the bottom line is that it leaves the cup pretty bare for Duke. Oh sure, we'll have new stud freshmen to fill in, but the consistency that most of us miss in this OAD era will once again be out the door. It's great for the players, but I'd argue it's not so great for the long-term progress of the different Duke teams. And it's certainly frustrating for many of us as we often lose in the tournament to teams with more cohesion and also don't form bonds with upperclassmen like we used to.

To put it straight - I LOATHE the OAD era. Yes, I have greatly enjoyed some of the players that have come thru (Zion, cough-cough). But the overall phenomenon I have not liked in the least. And it especially sucks that the team down the road continually seems to keep their guys and build stronger teams. It just stinks.

Mark Mitchell should leave based on his performance? Sorry I can't agree with that at all. He's a pretty good defensive player -- not great, but pretty good -- but he doesn't have the athleticism, ballhandling, or the shooting ability at his size to be an NBA player. His moves to the basket with the dribble are slow and predictable. He can't beat anyone off the dribble. He doesn't create. He's a below the rim player at 6'8", and his shot mechanics aren't very good. He's a guy who absolutely needs to work on multiple aspects of his game to have a real shot in the NBA in my opinion. I'd love to see him back in a Duke uniform to do that work because he can be a real impact player next year, but who knows what his vision of himself is?

[DavidBenAkiva]

I mean, anyone can change their mind, but the consensus is that Roach, Lively, and Whitehead are all but certain to leave. Mitchell, Proctor, and Flip have decisions to make with Mitchell leaning toward leaving, Flip wanting to stay but knowing that if he gets a mid-first evaluation he needs to go, and Proctor truly uncertain of what to do.

Coincidentally, or perhaps not, their dropoff has coincided with them starting to land OAD players. Not the wholesale classes like us, but Coby White, Cole Anthony, Nassir Little, Walker Kessler, etc. have not seen any tournament success. They still rely on five stars sticking around for three and four years.

Also true, although I would note that Walker Kessler played 2 years in college even though he was one-and-done in Chapel Hill. Turns out that sharing the frontcourt with three other post-oriented big men wasn't a good fit for him.

Coby White is the lone exception to the trend that they have developed of top high school recruits floundering a little during their freshman year. Hey, it turns out that even Burger Boys need time to grow and develop! They haven't had a freshman that both started and went in the 1st Round of the NBA Draft outside of Cole Anthony and Coby White (who has since struggled in the NBA relative to his draft position and appears on track to settle into a journeyman career). Anthony appears to be destined for that long-term reserve role as well a la Tyus Jones. But I doubt many will remember Anthony's time at UNC fondly. They have then benefitted from 4- and 5-star recruits improving in college and then, if they make it to the NBA, rarely doing more than serving as a bench reserve. Hubert Davis seems intent on landing a few OAD types like GG Jackson (the one that got away...) and Ian Jackson to help revamp the image of UNC as a place aspiring NBA players want to play.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke landed 3 players on the McDonald's All-American rosters that were announced today. Mackenzie Mgbako and Sean Stewart will play on the East team while Jared McCain will be on the West team.

Caleb Foster and TJ Power were left off the rosters. Foster appears to be a snub while Power was not eligible due to being a postgrad (same situation as his friend Kyle Filipowski last year).

[tommy]

I was at Pauley tonight watching Caleb Foster and his Notre Dame team against Sierra Canyon. Sierra was without Bronny James. I realize the game was on ESPNU so some of you might have seen it, but for those who didn't . . .

It's the second time in the last week or ten days that I've seen Foster in person. He didn't play nearly as well tonight as he did last week. One thing is for certain: he is a big-time athlete, with outstanding quickness and a very good handle, and he has a college-ready body. Tonight though he really struggled with decisionmaking. He forced a lot of plays, dribbled into trouble, made some kinda wild passes, and was sort of in and out in terms of impacting the game. He made a couple of three's early, then one late and one other bucket on a strong move to the basket, but there were long stretches where he really didn't impact offensively. He's a very good recruit, lots of talent there, and he'll be a good player at Duke. May take a bit of time before his ability to really run a team is there at the ACC level, but he has all the physical tools. He's not a coach on the floor yet, which is what you want from a point guard. Once he develops the mental part of the game that's necessary at the high major level, he's going to be excellent I think.

On another note, Notre Dame's best player, Dusty Stromer, was really outstanding. He's got a sweet stroke and knows how to get his shot, and holds his own athletically, or at least he did tonight. Looks like a keeper for Mark Few and Gonzaga.

Sierra's best player is Isiah Elohim, who is a junior. I've been watching him since he was a freshman and he's really improved his game and his body. He was coming off an injury and looked really good in the first half taking the ball strong to the hole, and in transition. Puts a lot of pressure on the rim. Unfortunately, he got hurt again in the 3rd quarter and that was pretty much it for Sierra. To my knowledge, we are not recruiting Elohim, but he looks like he's gonna be a good one.

If I can, I'm gonna try to see Jared McCain and Centennial tomorrow night.

[Daddylawman]

I was at Pauley tonight watching Caleb Foster and his Notre Dame team against Sierra Canyon. Sierra was without Bronny James. I realize the game was on ESPNU so some of you might have seen it, but for those who didn't . . .

It's the second time in the last week or ten days that I've seen Foster in person. He didn't play nearly as well tonight as he did last week. One thing is for certain: he is a big-time athlete, with outstanding quickness and a very good handle, and he has a college-ready body. Tonight though he really struggled with decisionmaking. He forced a lot of plays, dribbled into trouble, made some kinda wild passes, and was sort of in and out in terms of impacting the game. He made a couple of three's early, then one late and one other bucket on a strong move to the basket, but there were long stretches where he really didn't impact offensively. He's a very good recruit, lots of talent there, and he'll be a good player at Duke. May take a bit of time before his ability to really run a team is there at the ACC level, but he has all the physical tools. He's not a coach on the floor yet, which is what you want from a point guard. Once he develops the mental part of the game that's necessary at the high major level, he's going to be excellent I think.

On another note, Notre Dame's best player, Dusty Stromer, was really outstanding. He's got a sweet stroke and knows how to get his shot, and holds his own athletically, or at least he did tonight. Looks like a keeper for Mark Few and Gonzaga.

Sierra's best player is Isiah Elohim, who is a junior. I've been watching him since he was a freshman and he's really improved his game and his body. He was coming off an injury and looked really good in the first half taking the ball strong to the hole, and in transition. Puts a lot of pressure on the rim. Unfortunately, he got hurt again in the 3rd quarter and that was pretty much it for Sierra. To my knowledge, we are not recruiting Elohim, but he looks like he's gonna be a good one.

If I can, I'm gonna try to see Jared McCain and Centennial tomorrow night.

Appreciate the report

[DavidBenAkiva]

Thanks for the report, Tommy!

I like that you see Foster as a plus athlete. The other scouting reports I've read and clips I've seen suggest he's the kind of player that likes to go at his own pace and rarely gets sped up. Some good athletes can make it look like they are coasting because they are so under control. Perhaps that is the case with Foster as well. I am hopeful that Foster will be able to grow into whatever role is best for him at Duke. Having Proctor as a sophomore I think would benefit Foster.

[bshrader]

I just saw an article dated 1/30 that stated Mgbako was carried off the floor with an ankle injury on Sunday 1/29. Anyone have any info on this? Severity?

The article states it's a sprained ankle, not a break.

[cato]

Point taken. Perhaps last year's devastating losses (and they were beyond devastating) to them has colored my view. Along with the fact that this year they seem to presently be trending back upward while we are not. But that point aside, the other issue I pointed out was the fan perspective where we don't get to enjoy seeing teams grow from season to season with the same personnel in mass. And I do miss that terribly.

I get where you are coming from, but I feel quite differently. Both losses to UNC were indeed tough losses, but to me they weren’t devastating. It would have been great for Duke to win the FF game and I was giddy when it looked like they were going to pull it off. But Duke didn’t knock down key shots in winning time, UNC did and you can’t get more “toss up” than that. It was an amazing game and a fitting last dance for K, although obviously we all wanted just two more wins.

The night of the Final Four we were staying at Disneyland with the family, scheduled to check out the next morning. When Duke lost I told the kids to pack, let’s go home and sleep in our beds. My wife did not need convincing. They all fell asleep during the hour plus drive, so I got plenty of time with myself and my thoughts, driving down the SoCal coast at night.

By the time I got home, I was well on the path to getting over the loss. By the time the Heels coughed up an insurmountable lead and the national title two nights later, I was all the way cured. The loss to UNC in the FF probably won’t make top 10 Duke losses for me, whereas Coach K and Co’s run to the Final Four will likely remain a top 10 favorite Duke seasons for me (pending surprising results from the Scheyer era, of course).

Bottom line? I grew up in a world where I loved Duke and thought they had the best program, but would probably have conceded that Carolina’s was a notch above. As great as the 1986-1992 run was for K, the future was uncertain for the program during the period between Grant Hill graduating and The Killa Bs showing up on campus. UNC always seemed to have more talent.

That is no longer the case. UNC remains a very talented and successful program, year in year out, and the future has promise but is very uncertain for Duke, but over the past half decade and looking forward, I like where Duke is positioned.

[Steven43]

Mark Mitchell should leave based on his performance? Sorry I can't agree with that at all. He's a pretty good defensive player -- not great, but pretty good -- but he doesn't have the athleticism, ballhandling, or the shooting ability at his size to be an NBA player. His moves to the basket with the dribble are slow and predictable. He can't beat anyone off the dribble. He doesn't create. He's a below the rim player at 6'8", and his shot mechanics aren't very good.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?

[tommy]

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?

Not sure what you're saying here. I didn't say Mark isn't a good player or a valuable player. He is. He just doesn't have great ball skills or shooting form and isn't a super run and jump athlete for his size. Adding all that up will make it tough for him to stick in the NBA. But he's a solid defensive player and, as he evidenced again last night, a very good rebounder. He's exactly the kind of doesn't-need-the-ball "glue guy" that is so helpful in constructing a winning college basketball team. Maybe he can develop into more than that, but that's what I see him as today. Do you disagree?

[Kedsy]

But he's a solid defensive player and, as he evidenced again last night, a very good rebounder.

He actually hasn't been that good a rebounder, last night's game notwithstanding. Mitchell's DR% of 12.3% is almost identical to Grandison's 12.2%, and not much better than Proctor's 10.5% or Blakes's 9.9%. Mitchell's OR% of 6.0% is likewise not particularly impressive.

Part of that is he's playing small forward and the power forward is snarfing up all the defensive rebounds (Filipowski's 26.8% DR%, if it continues, would be the best defensive rebounding pct in Duke history (or at least since 1987 when they started keeping track of defensive rebounds)). But even for a small forward, Mitchell's numbers wouldn't be considered "very good." Last year, Moore's numbers were 4.4% and 12.5% and Griffin's numbers were 3.9% and 13.7%. In 2021, Moore was 5.1% and 15.2%; in 2020, Moore was 7.4% and 11.7% and Stanley was 7.6% and 11.7%; in 2019, RJ Barrett was 4.8% and 17.2%; and so on. I'd rank Mitchell as no better than an average rebounder for a small forward. We'd have to see him more at power forward to rank him there. But he was good last night, so at least we know he can do it.

[AGDukesky]

Not sure what you're saying here. I didn't say Mark isn't a good player or a valuable player. He is. He just doesn't have great ball skills or shooting form and isn't a super run and jump athlete for his size. Adding all that up will make it tough for him to stick in the NBA. But he's a solid defensive player and, as he evidenced again last night, a very good rebounder. He's exactly the kind of doesn't-need-the-ball "glue guy" that is so helpful in constructing a winning college basketball team. Maybe he can develop into more than that, but that's what I see him as today. Do you disagree?

I agree. Good role player in college but not someone you want with the ball initiating any offense.

[MartyClark]

I get where you are coming from, but I feel quite differently. Both losses to UNC were indeed tough losses, but to me they weren’t devastating. It would have been great for Duke to win the FF game and I was giddy when it looked like they were going to pull it off. But Duke didn’t knock down key shots in winning time, UNC did and you can’t get more “toss up” than that. It was an amazing game and a fitting last dance for K, although obviously we all wanted just two more wins.

The night of the Final Four we were staying at Disneyland with the family, scheduled to check out the next morning. When Duke lost I told the kids to pack, let’s go home and sleep in our beds. My wife did not need convincing. They all fell asleep during the hour plus drive, so I got plenty of time with myself and my thoughts, driving down the SoCal coast at night.

By the time I got home, I was well on the path to getting over the loss. By the time the Heels coughed up an insurmountable lead and the national title two nights later, I was all the way cured. The loss to UNC in the FF probably won’t make top 10 Duke losses for me, whereas Coach K and Co’s run to the Final Four will likely remain a top 10 favorite Duke seasons for me (pending surprising results from the Scheyer era, of course).

Bottom line? I grew up in a world where I loved Duke and thought they had the best program, but would probably have conceded that Carolina’s was a notch above. As great as the 1986-1992 run was for K, the future was uncertain for the program during the period between Grant Hill graduating and The Killa Bs showing up on campus. UNC always seemed to have more talent.

That is no longer the case. UNC remains a very talented and successful program, year in year out, and the future has promise but is very uncertain for Duke, but over the past half decade and looking forward, I like where Duke is positioned.

You are a better person, more well rounded, better perspective than me.

That loss to Carolina was devastating to me. I won't forget it

[flyingdutchdevil]

You are a better person, more well rounded, better perspective than me.

That loss to Carolina was devastating to me. I won't forget it

Yeah, same.

Losing in the FF sucks. Losing in the FF to your rival, who are a bunch of cheating a-holes, is devastating.

[Steven43]

Not sure what you're saying here. I didn't say Mark isn't a good player or a valuable player. He is. He just doesn't have great ball skills or shooting form and isn't a super run and jump athlete for his size. Adding all that up will make it tough for him to stick in the NBA. But he's a solid defensive player and, as he evidenced again last night, a very good rebounder. He's exactly the kind of doesn't-need-the-ball "glue guy" that is so helpful in constructing a winning college basketball team. Maybe he can develop into more than that, but that's what I see him as today. Do you disagree?

I wasn’t really saying anything other than I found the avalanche of negative criticism in regard to Mitchell’s NBA potential kind of amusing and that was my response. And btw, I don’t disagree.

And I agree with your assessment of Mitchell’s positive value to Duke.

[arnie]

Not sure what you're saying here. I didn't say Mark isn't a good player or a valuable player. He is. He just doesn't have great ball skills or shooting form and isn't a super run and jump athlete for his size. Adding all that up will make it tough for him to stick in the NBA. But he's a solid defensive player and, as he evidenced again last night, a very good rebounder. He's exactly the kind of doesn't-need-the-ball "glue guy" that is so helpful in constructing a winning college basketball team. Maybe he can develop into more than that, but that's what I see him as today. Do you disagree?

Mark Mitchell, Jeremy Roach, Trevor Keels, Tyrese Proctor are/were all quality basketball players at the ACC level. However, hundreds of 6’-6’8” very good b-ball players are available for the NBA to pick through. I don’t think any of these 4 players have shown superpowers or specific high end skills that make them that NBA attractive.

I realize they all have that goal, but I don’t see any of the above earning a regular rotation spot in The League.

[cato]

You are a better person, more well rounded, better perspective than me.

That loss to Carolina was devastating to me. I won't forget it

“And on the long drive from [El Mouseville] to the Pacific Ocean cliffs/
I finally felt connected to the continental drift.”

I will admit that my perspective is impacted by attending the Sweet 16 with my brother, who was on campus in 1986. It was an amazing experience, meeting new Duke friends/seeing some people from the distant pass, watching the game and then hanging out with more Duke fans afterward, including Mark Williams’ family.

With the perspective of that kind of experience during K’s last run, well, it was a truly remarkable year and just didn’t devastate me the way that losses in 86, 98, 99, 04 or even 94 and 02 for that matter.

[kAzE]

Mark Mitchell should leave based on his performance? Sorry I can't agree with that at all. He's a pretty good defensive player -- not great, but pretty good -- but he doesn't have the athleticism, ballhandling, or the shooting ability at his size to be an NBA player. His moves to the basket with the dribble are slow and predictable. He can't beat anyone off the dribble. He doesn't create. He's a below the rim player at 6'8", and his shot mechanics aren't very good. He's a guy who absolutely needs to work on multiple aspects of his game to have a real shot in the NBA in my opinion. I'd love to see him back in a Duke uniform to do that work because he can be a real impact player next year, but who knows what his vision of himself is?

He's in a pretty tough spot after this season. We have 3 top 20 forwards coming next year, all 3 of whom are sort of the same size, and each of them could eventually make a case to play ahead of Mark. In particular, Sean Stewart appears to have a lot of positional/skillset overlap, but unlike Mark, is considered an elite athlete. I think Mark will probably declare for the draft based on that. He's shown enough shooting touch at the foul line and from the arc that with some mechanical adjustments to speed up his release, could be viewed as a good 3&D wing prospect. There's always teams in the NBA who need wing defenders with good size/strength and who do not need the ball in their hands, so I wouldn't view his decision the same as someone like DJ Steward, for example. There's much less demand for undersized shoot first guards.

[cato]

He's in a pretty tough spot after this season. We have 3 top 20 forwards coming next year, all 3 of whom are sort of the same size, and each of them could eventually make a case to play ahead of Mark. In particular, Sean Stewart appears to have a lot of positional/skillset overlap, but unlike Mark, is considered an elite athlete. I think Mark will probably declare for the draft based on that. He's shown enough shooting touch at the foul line and from the arc that with some mechanical adjustments to speed up his release, could be viewed as a good 3&D wing prospect. There's always teams in the NBA who need wing defenders with good size/strength and who do not need the ball in their hands, so I wouldn't view his decision the same as someone like DJ Steward, for example. There's much less demand for undersized shoot first guards.

I don’t think Mark should declare because he is concerned about playing time next year. He won and has kept a starting spot in his freshman year. He plays 26 minutes a game, takes 7 shots, hits 3.3 per game (good for almost 10 points) and is part of a defense that has shown flashes of elite defensive prowess.

We don’t know how Jon will do things year to year, but that sounds like the profile of a player that will earn plenty of playing time if he returns, most likely as a starter but if not then firmly in the rotation.

The big question will be where he thinks he will go. If he doesn’t have a straight line to a good place to develop at the next level, he may be best served to return to Duke.

[lotusland]

Mark Mitchell, Jeremy Roach, Trevor Keels, Tyrese Proctor are/were all quality basketball players at the ACC level. However, hundreds of 6’-6’8” very good b-ball players are available for the NBA to pick through. I don’t think any of these 4 players have shown superpowers or specific high end skills that make them that NBA attractive.

I realize they all have that goal, but I don’t see any of the above earning a regular rotation spot in The League.

I agree with this assessment for the most part. Mitchell doesn’t see the court when he drives so it’s all or nothing. Recently he’s shown some ability to go to the right side of the rim and even shoot right handed. He’s also dropped of a dime or two but to teammates directly in his line of vision. His 3 point shooting has been great but he seems to be reverting to the mean. I’m leaning more towards him have potential to be a stud in college that likely won’t be realized. He’s a more athletic and better shooting Amile Jefferson but I’m not sure that is enough in the league.

Unfortunately, much of the same criticism is true for Roach. His PG skills are below average in college. He’s just not big or athletic enough for an NBA 2. I suppose he has a Quinn Cook or maybe Seth Currie shot. He’s a better defender than both. It’s unlikely that he’ll ever shoot at Seth’s level. Cook worked his butt of tearing up the G league for years to earn a couple seasons in the NBA. He earned it but that hardly seems like a reason to hurry up to get there. Especially when those guys played 4-years before making the jump while Roach has NIL opportunities that they didn’t have.

Proctor’s floor game is very good. His court vision, excluding last night, has been better than either of the Jones brothers. Also better than JWill and Duhon. At times it is eye popping. He has good size but less quickness than Trey, Chris and JWilll. He hasn’t shot as well as Tyus, Chris or JWill and doesn’t defend as well Tre nor is his handle quite as good. That’s all to say that I’d be very surprised if Tyrese doesn’t have at least a multi year NBA career. But, like Tre, he has enough to work on for another year at Duke if he’s not in too much of a hurry.