Will our bench be used

[MCFinARL]

is not so much whether Coach K will play 7-9 players, but who we have on the bench for the inevitable injury. I hate to say it but injuries have been a big part of seasonal "success" for Duke in the past 8-10 years.

With that being said and after reading assessments on this board, Duke has a lot of bodies at all positions. Tre and Jordan at the point; Cassius, Boogie; Alex in the backcourt; Jack; Matthew; Wendell; Joey at the wing; Vernon; Javin and Marques near the basket.

They each do bring different skill levels but I don't see Duke relying on a core 3 players for 90% of the scoring or on 2-3 players for defense.

Tre at the point is perhaps the only position where an injury would be very damaging (I said this in April so that the weauxf gods would forget this by October).

Yes, but this isn't the only benefit. It's easy to forget how valuable those players are in practice, so that the regulars can be challenged and there are players skilled enough to replicate the styles of particular opponents. Maybe not the most satisfying role for the players or the fans, but a crucial one nonetheless.

[UrinalCake]

No, we didn't. Though I suppose it depends on how you define "rotation."

Having a 9 player rotation doesn’t have to mean 9 guys play in every game. It could mean 5 guys play in every game and then 4 guys are in a group that could each step up and play 10-20 minutes in a given game, but it’s a different guy each game. So we’re playing 6-7 guys each game, out of a 9 man rotation.

I think that’s the pattern we saw last season. Javin and Bolden basically split minutes at the 5, but took turns starting. Other than the four freshmen we started the year with Jack as our 6th man playing 30+ minutes, then when he fell off we saw Goldwire get more minutes. In a couple games Alex stepped up. It just depends on the matchup and who is playing well in that game.

[Kedsy]

10 is such an arbitrary number. The fact is, 9 guys played 8.5 minutes per game and all of those guys played 33 or more games in the season.

10 is arbitrary? But 8.5 isn't arbitrary at all, got it.

In any event, here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 8.5+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 8 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes.

Still doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

[JNort]

Assuming that at least one of DeLaurier and Bolden return, we will likely have the deepest bench a Duke team has ever had.
My question relates to whether or not it will be utilized.
Granting that Coach K is the greatest basketball coach ever. If he has an achilles heel, it has arguably been the fact that lots of talent have sat or the bench with little or no playing time.

First off no, we will go 7 or 8 deep.

Aa for the bolded, I wonder if a day will ever come when people stop saying this. It is said almost every year.

[Green Wave Dukie]

This question is like pollen - it happens every Spring.

Yep, I notice this topic starts warming up every year about this time.

[CDu]

Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation? Some of that was due to injuries, but there were 9 guys that played 33+ games and at least 8.5 minutes.

No, we didn't. Though I suppose it depends on how you define "rotation."

Here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 10+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes.

That doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

In addition to Kedsy's point, it's worth noting that our 7 main rotation players (Barrett, Williamson, Jones, Reddish, DeLaurier, Bolden, White) missed effectively 14 games with injuries/illness. Conservatively, that's over 400 minutes (or over 10 minutes per game) that had to be accounted for by guys who would have otherwise been completely outside the rotation. Take those minutes away from O'Connell and Goldwire and we're back to a more typical Coach K lineup, with 7 rotation players, an 8th getting in the 8 mpg range, and a 9th getting 3-5 mpg.

Tier 3: Deep BenchJoey Baker, Jordan Goldwire, Boogie Ellis, Justin Robinson

Minor quibble, but I'd list Robinson either with the other walk-ons or somewhere in between Tier 3 and Tier 4. He really shouldn't be in the same group as heavily recruited players like Baker and Ellis or even more lightly recruited players like Goldwire. He's a walk-on who happens to get a scholarship when one is available, and who may be slightly higher in the playing time pecking order than the other walk-ons.

[DallasDevil]

10 is arbitrary? But 8.5 isn't arbitrary at all, got it.

In any event, here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 8.5+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 8 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes.

Still doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

Well, 8.5 wasn't arbitrary because it's the actual number of minutes averaged by the player who played in the vast majority of games with the lowest minutes. I didn't interpret DavidBenAkiva's post to mean that 8.5 minutes/game was a better number to use than 10, but rather that a reasonable definition of which players are in the rotation can go beyond looking at a set number of minutes played. Also, I don't think anyone is disputing that in close end-of-year games the best players get the most minutes. But if we are saying only players who play 10+ minutes per game in each close end-of-year game for which they are healthy are in the rotation, then we had a 5-6 man "rotation." The last home game against Wake Forest was a 1 point game, so I'd add that to your list of close end-of-season games. In those 8 games, only Zion, RJ, Tre, Cam, and Javin played 10+ in each game they were available. We can add Bolden who only played 9 minutes in the game he returned from injury. However, in that span AOC averaged 12 min/game, started 3 games (due to injuries to others), and only had 1 DNP-CD. Goldwire averaged over 10 min/game with 0 DNP-CD (but only getting in for less than 1 minute against MSU). Jack White also averaged over 10 minutes per game and played in every game for which he was healthy. I doubt that any player or coach on the team would say that those 9 guys were not in the rotation, and I think it's reasonable to take the position that all 9 of those players were in the rotation this past year. Injuries certainly contributed to freeing up more minutes for bench players, but I think all 9 of those guys had a contributing role on the team.

[Truth&Justise]

We're losing sight of the important question: with short rotations and deep benches, how many minutes would Michael Savarino have to play before folks accuse K of nepotism?

[jimmymax]

[QUOTE=kcduke75;1158354]My next question is why do people use the word UTILIZE?

I hear you. There's a thread dedicated to such words.

[jimmymax]

No worries. I hear Baker is going to red-shirt.

[NSDukeFan]

This reminds me a little bit of when Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy were freshmen and how excited I was that Duke had multiple multi-talented wings. I believe Rodney Hood arrived around that time and Olek Czyz was here around that time as well. I hope whoever gets left out of major minutes next year has the patience and work ethic to stick it out as they could be great upperclassmen contributors. I don’t begrudge departures as it is their choice, I just really like cheering for upperclassmen. (Hope to be cheering hard for you at Duke next year, Javin and Marquese.)

[RPS]

I thought the thread title was an Andy Borowitz headline...

[jimsumner]

This reminds me a little bit of when Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy were freshmen and how excited I was that Duke had multiple multi-talented wings. I believe Rodney Hood arrived around that time and Olek Czyz was here around that time as well. I hope whoever gets left out of major minutes next year has the patience and work ethic to stick it out as they could be great upperclassmen contributors. I don’t begrudge departures as it is their choice, I just really like cheering for upperclassmen. (Hope to be cheering hard for you at Duke next year, Javin and Marquese.)

Czyz was gone long before Murphy, Gbinijie or Hood showed up. And Hood only showed up after Gbinijie transferred. They had no overlap at Duke.

[ChillinDuke]

I really wish there was a video class on select DBR topics that we could post in threads like this. Almost like a pre-show to a Disney ride. So that before we begin discussion, everyone is reminded that there is an extensive backstory on the topic. Otherwise, we just devolve into re-teaching the same old data again and again.

I'm all for discussing interesting topics or a fresh take on an old topic. But questions like this and views like "deepest Duke team ever" are so well documented at this point, it just uses up bandwidth that could be better served.

I guess I should just ignore this thread. Sorry.

- Chillin

[NSDukeFan]

Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation? Some of that was due to injuries, but there were 9 guys that played 33+ games and at least 8.5 minutes. I don't expect that to be the norm, but this idea that Coach K is so rigid that he only plays 7 or 8 guys is silly. Hell, UVA only played 7 or 8 guys all year. Most every team plays somewhere between 7 and 9 players.

As I look at this roster - assuming Bolden and DeLaurier return - there are natural tiers that appear to me.

Tier 1: Definite Starters
Tre Jones, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, and Vernon Carey, Jr.

Jones is an obvious starter and will get 35+ minutes a game. I think Moore and Hurt will get 30+ minutes a game as well as they are highly-rated 5-star prospects that play positions of need for Duke. Vernon Carey, Jr. is also an obvious starter as a low-post scorer and occasional jump shooter that will average something like 25-30 minutes a game due to foul trouble or conditioning.

Tier 2: Potential Starters
Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell, Cassius Stanley

After Tier 1, the most interesting question of the offseason will be about who fills that last starting spot. I think the clubhouse leader will be Jack White. This will be a controversial take on this board, no doubt. But he gives the team positional flexibility to switch on defense with Moore and Hurt. He is an excellent rebounder that can help Hurt and Carey on the glass. And he has the potential of being a good 3-point shooter. If White doesn't work out, I think Javin is the guy. He can switch onto most wings in college or play up. He provides shot blocking and can be a real glue guy alongside Carey or Hurt. After that, it's possible Bolden starts, but I think bench big playing 15-20 minutes a game is more likely. We could see AOC or Stanely also grab that 5th starting spot and I expect each to start at least 1 game this season. One or both could surprise with their development this offseason. O'Connell needs to improve his assertiveness and defensive awareness. We'll see what Stanley brings to the table.

Tier 3: Deep Bench
Joey Baker, Jordan Goldwire, Boogie Ellis, Justin Robinson

I waffled on where to put Baker. I think his best basketball is ahead of him. We might see some glimpses of it this next season. More likely, 2020-21 will start to show us the real Joey Buckets. We have seen Goldwire perform well in spots and I do expect to see him most games as relief for Jones during the first half or if the team wants to press. Unless and until he finds a reliable outside shot, though, I don't see him getting more than 5-10 minutes a game max. Ellis is another interesting option as he seems to have a needed skill - shooting - and at a position - guard - that Duke could use that skill. I have a hunch, though, that he will not see the floor much as a freshman. He could become a starting guard in time. Hopefully he surprises. And Robinson will be a 5th-year senior and could see some garbage time as a replacement for Hurt and White. I hope to see him play a lot as that means there will be many blowouts. Robinson will be the human victory cigar next season.

Tier 4: Walk-Ons
Mike Buckmire, Keenan Worthington, Michael Savarino

It's great to have you here, boys!

I agree that it is hard to predict who will break out to get more playing time, but in my mind there are three likely starters in Tre, Carney and Hurt. I assume you have seen Wendell play a lot more than I have , what makes you feel that he is guaranteed to start over Baker, Stanley, O’Connell and White? I would have put DesLaurier and Bolden near the top of that unordered list (4th and 5th on the roster) based on where I see them ranking in terms of next year’s players but am not sure if they will start with Hurt and Carney. I could see a situation where Carney, or Bolden, plays with Hurt and Javin in a big lineup.

[CDu]

This reminds me a little bit of when Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy were freshmen and how excited I was that Duke had multiple multi-talented wings. I believe Rodney Hood arrived around that time and Olek Czyz was here around that time as well. I hope whoever gets left out of major minutes next year has the patience and work ethic to stick it out as they could be great upperclassmen contributors. I don’t begrudge departures as it is their choice, I just really like cheering for upperclassmen. (Hope to be cheering hard for you at Duke next year, Javin and Marquese.)

You're off by a couple of years in either direction. Gbinije and Murphy came to Duke (Murphy "a year early") in the Summer/Fall of 2011. Czyz transferred out of Duke in Dec 2009. Hood arrived at Duke in the Summer/Fall of 2012 (after Gbinije had transferred), and didn't play until the 2013-14 season.

But the point is still valid that when you have a bunch of options it can be challenging to keep everyone content. We've actually been fairly fortunate in recent years in that a lot of our "next-tier" recruits have stayed even through limited minutes. Even a top-15 recruit like Bolden has stayed at least 3 years despite never quite earning a starting spot. But DeLaurier and O'Connell have done so as well. Not that we've had a perfect record (Jordan Tucker did transfer out almost immediately, and Jeter and Thornton were high-profile guys who left). But we've probably had pretty good retention considering the playing time challenges these kids face.

[J4Kop99]

Slightly off-topic but still in line with the overall theme of the thread:

When does the transfer portal close? Are we still at risk of possibly losing someone to a transfer? This current discussion is pointing out how many similarly skilled guys we will have next year and I'm having trouble believing they will all actually be on the roster. Don't get me wrong-- I want them all to stay and hope some will stay multiple years.

There is so much ego in AAU/HS Basketball culture now that I worry some of our incoming freshmen or upperclassmen are going to be expecting more playing time than can reasonably be spread out.

[MChambers]

I agree that it is hard to predict who will break out to get more playing time, but in my mind there are three likely starters in Tre, Carney and Hurt. I assume you have seen Wendell play a lot more than I have , what makes you feel that he is guaranteed to start over Baker, Stanley, O’Connell and White? I would have put DesLaurier and Bolden near the top of that unordered list (4th and 5th on the roster) based on where I see them ranking in terms of next year’s players but am not sure if they will start with Hurt and Carney. I could see a situation where Carney, or Bolden, plays with Hurt and Javin in a big lineup.

Art Carney?

[CDu]

Art Carney?

Rodney Carney. But I think Rodney used up his eligibility already.

[NSDukeFan]

Art Carney?

Oops. At least he hasn’t played for Duke yet, so I almost have an excuse for getting his name wrong?