So I went all chalk with the big 4 plus SLOP2. I just don't see Pikachu beating it, although it will be close and then Aladdin.
Avengers: Endgame
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu
John Wick: Chapter 3
Aladdin
Godzilla: King of Monsters
The Secret Life of Pets 2
X-Men: Dark Phoenix
Men in Black: International
Toy Story 4
Spider-Man: Far From Home
The Lion King
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
Field (any film not mentioned above)
Well, Days of Future Past did $234 million and that was a few years ago. Granted, that was a followup to the very well received First Class, but we are talking about essentially the same characters in this film as were in that one. I also wonder what the Game of Thrones halo effect may do with Sophie Turner stepping out front in this flick.
-Jason "question: what will it take to get into the top 5? Will $250 mil do it this summer?" Evans
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So I went all chalk with the big 4 plus SLOP2. I just don't see Pikachu beating it, although it will be close and then Aladdin.
The Gordog
Big 4 (Endgame, Lion King, Spidey and TS4) plus Fast and Furious. F&F just looks like good popcorn summer movie fun to me and I think it may pull in some folks who have missed some of the franchise like myself. The trailers look good and it has the star power so if the word of mouth is good I think it's our 5th film.
"The future ain't what it used to be."
So far only 4 people have voted for this... and I get that it is a longshot to make enough to beat some of the heavy hitters... but MY GOD THIS LOOKS LIKE A FUN, RIDICULOUS FILM!!
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One week left to vote in the poll... we have 4 runaway choices (all being picked by around 90% of us) and then four or five other options. 5-for-5 is incredibly rare but it sorta feels like this might be the summer where a half dozen of us hit the perfecta... unless we are really wrong about those top 4 (it has been known to happen).
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Surprised to see I am an outlier with MiB. Looks like a perfect summer flick, heavy with star power and effects, building off a (slightly older) but successful franchise.
I would like to hear the rationale for the person who didn't pick Endgame as MOTM, er, a top ticket sale movie. Did you accidentally pick Pokémon instead because of voting on your phone? Does "Avengers" mean something else in your native language?
I was WAY tempted to go with MIB. Not only is the cast great, but the director has a proven record. My biggest holdup was that it is sandwiched in between X-Men and TS4, meaning that it will only spend one week at #1, if it does at all.
So instead, I went with Aladdin, which in another thread I said that I would never vote for.
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
I would consider it a source of pride if I lost because I didn't pick Aladdin.
Disney or no Disney it would be like cheering for the Tar heels to win the national championship. I'm not going to do it. EVER! Seeing that trailer made me feel the same deep revulsion I get when I pass someone wearing Carolina gear.
I have already voted, but it just occurred to me that Top Gun 2 is coming out this summer right? I would assume this would be a blockbuster - no? If not much is expected I am a bit shocked since it is one of the more remembered movies of the 80's.
NEVERMIND: I just saw that it was postponed until 2020. I will probably have it my top 5 then!
The loss of sales thing was it for me. I expect the initial buzz for this film to be huge and that it hits a huge $ right out of the gate ($200M?) After that it does respectable business, but its overall length, the number of contenders, and perhaps even some marvel fatigue keep it down. I personally don't like the rule of arbitrarily limiting it's take based on the release date, but it's not my contest so I don't make the rules. It's akin to AOC challenging Zion to a game of 1x1 by tying one of Z's hands behind his back - sure it's interesting to think who might win, but it feels arbitrary.
Anyway, I tend to not overthink my picks too much. Perhaps I should have in this case.
"There can BE only one."
What are the odds that Engame becomes the highest gross film of all time?
Domestically, the title belongs to The Force Awakens. Worldwide, it belongs to Avatar.
I'm not sure it can catch Avatar, but I think it definitely passes Titanic. Will have the largest opening weekend of all time as well.
Worst movie I have ever seen (seriously) was the first Pokemon movie I endured with my son (10 at the time) and daughter (6 at the time). Even my son thought it was trash.
The Box office on the first was $85 million. Each successive film took in less than half of the one before.
Bet on Pokemon at your own peril!
Those were also essentially just extended episodes of the animated cartoon show, not really stand-alone movies (and not live action), so a little apples to oranges (a theatrical anime release vs. a live action + CGI film...plus Ryan Reynolds!). If there are any theatrical releases of animated Marvel stuff from back in the day you could probably find similar lackluster performance there...doesn't carry over to live action.
Plus, now instead of a generation of parents who hated how much time their kids wasted playing/watching that stupid "Pokeman thing" and didn't want to pay for their kids to go see it in theaters you have a generation of parents that grew up playing it. I would be shocked if this doesn't outperform the original animated movie...I'd even be kind of surprised if it didn't double it.
Voting closes this afternoon... VOTE NOW!!!
I finally cast my ballots. Like all the rest of you, I had 4 easy picks. In order they are:
1. Endgame - even minus $300 mil in pre-May boxoffice, it is going to make $300+ mil with ease. I think it will end up around $700 mil in total boxoffice
2. Lion King - Jungle Book, with a less beloved story, made $364 mil. This one should approach $500 mil.
3. Toy Story 4 - Toy Story 3 made $400+ mil... a decade ago. Simple ticket price inflation makes this a $500 mil movie.
4. Spiderman: FFH - The Post-Endgame glow will have folks streaming to theaters to continue the MCU magic. I see something like $350 mil, a little more than the last one.
So, that left me with the tough choice for #5. I know many have picked Pikachu, but I am already betting against that film and am far from convinced Ryan Reynolds voice can entice lots of folks to see what is otherwise a childish franchise. Plus, I think anything close to Endgame is going to get swallowed by that behemoth. I think Aladdin looks fine but I don't think it can get to the $300 mil that I think our #5 film will make in what I expect to be the biggest summer in Hollywood history. I really came close to picking Hobbs & Shaw, and I think it will finish #6, but the August release really gives me pause. Put that film 2 weeks earlier and I probably pick it.
So, I went with SLOP 2. The trailers look cute and the last one made $368 mil. Illumination has found a real sweet spot as the more kid-skewing version of Pixar. Every single one of their last 6 films has made more than $260 million. Hard to bet against that.
-Jason "I am sure there are about 7-10 of you who have this same Top 5... I am sorry for jinxing you like this " Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
First Men In Black: International trailer... looks fairly good.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?