NBA Draft Early Entry 2019

[JasonEvans]

Let this be the dedicated thread for everyone who says they are in or out of the 2019 NBA draft.

It begins with Amir Hinton (who??) a Division II player who hopes to become the first D2 player drafted in more than a decade. According to this ESPN article, dude is a legit prospect.

Currently there is exactly one D2 player in the NBA, Jaylen Morris of the Milwaukee Bucks. But, there is certainly a history of some D2 players becoming major contributors in the NBA. Ever heard of George Gervin or Manute Bol? What about Scottie Pippen?

-Jason "this will be the first of close to 200 guys who declare for the draft... even though only about 60 guys end up getting drafted" Evans

[CDu]

This seems like as good a place as any to post this. It's relevant to DBR in that it is an independent site that does a great job on scouting, and they specifically tackle a couple of questions we've seen recently on DBR: should Jones go pro? where should Reddish be drafted? Note: this article was specifically written about the non-Zion Duke guys. Pretty much everyone agrees he's the #1 pick.

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/03/0...duke-freshmen/

Summary of the article:

1. Barrett is a complicated NBA prospect. He's not overly athletic, not great at dribbling or deception, and not a good shooter, but is a high-volume shooter. That's a bad combination in today's NBA. And while not a liability on defense, he's not great on that end. Not that he doesn't have value, just that it's really hard to peg where he fits on a contending team in a salary capped sport. They do state that he is a hard worker, so it's hard to say where he'll end up skills wise down the road. But the questions they raise are legitimate NBA concerns in that, when he gets to the NBA, he won't be able to play bullyball against smaller, less athletic wings, which is where much of his success has come. Now it is not so much that they think he'll fall out of the top 2 or 3 picks mind you. He's going to go fairly shortly - if not immediately - after Zion. Not surprisingly, they are much higher on Barrett than either of the other two guys.

2. They don't care for Reddish. At all. The key paragraph is here:

Reddish’s awareness and offensive decision-making in the run of play are generally somewhere between negative and awful. People say he’s unassertive, but he’s got a 26 percent usage and he shoots or turns the ball over on 28 out of every 100 possessions he plays. Reddish doesn’t have problem with assertiveness. Reddish has a severe problem with not knowing when or how to assert himself.

Frankly, I think that pretty accurately sums it up. He just doesn't seem to play with great offensive awareness, and doesn't seem to make good decisions on offense. His good games come when his jumpshot is falling, and that's pretty much the one thing he does consistently well offensively is create space to get his jumpshot. That's actually fairly impressive given how awful he has looked off the dribble. But it is a skill that shouldn't be ignored: he's very good at creating his own jumpshot. The question is, can he be good enough as a shooter to make that a valuable skill?

They also raise the point that Reddish is long and skilled defensively, but they question whether he has any defensive versatility. He's not strong, and they could see him getting worked over by bigger/stronger wings in the NBA. This is one of the places that the Paul George comp may fall short the most: George is a tough defender even against bigger guys, whereas it isn't clear if Reddish can handle the physicality. His lack of comfort with physicality also appears on offense where he's easily dislodged of the ball off the dribble.

The author suggests that he wouldn't want to draft Reddish in the first round this year. But he acknowledges that Reddish WILL go in the lottery. One other interesting note on Reddish: the author suggests that Reddish might need to get his eyesight checked.

3. Tre Jones also gets somewhat panned. The section on Jones can be summarized here:

What Jones needs to improve is mainly his shooting. His lack of a jump shot has affected his entire game. He often looks like he’s playing scared, especially without Zion.

He notes that, because Jones is a good FT shooter (historically at least, and it's looking that way as the season goes on), there's reason for hope with his game. And that he could really use an extra year in college to improve his outside shot and half court offensive game.

The most interesting part of the discussion for me though is this:

The ironic thing, considering Reddish and Jones, is that Reddish should declare and Jones should stay, but that risk/reward for NBA teams suggests that spending a late first or a second round pick on Jones is a much better play than drafting Reddish early.

Basically, nothing Earth-shattering here. I just thought it was really interesting as a breakdown of our guys. Ultimately, I'd expect all 4 to go pro, with Jones being the only slightly questionable one on the list. Jones is the only one with potential for upward mobility in returning (if he develops a perimeter shot, he's a lottery pick for his other attributes; without it, he's borderline 1st round material). Barrett and Reddish (the former because he's not going to gain anything by returning, the latter because "potential" is keeping his stock super high right now) should go pro without question.

[wk2109]

Darius Garland withdrew from Vanderbilt in January to prepare for the draft: https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...for-nba-draft/

[sagegrouse]

2. They don't care for Reddish. At all. The key paragraph is here:

Frankly, I think that pretty accurately sums it up. He just doesn't seem to play with great offensive awareness, and doesn't seem to make good decisions on offense. His good games come when his jumpshot is falling, and that's pretty much the one thing he does consistently well offensively is create space to get his jumpshot. That's actually fairly impressive given how awful he has looked off the dribble. But it is a skill that shouldn't be ignored: he's very good at creating his own jumpshot. The question is, can he be good enough as a shooter to make that a valuable skill?

They also raise the point that Reddish is long and skilled defensively, but they question whether he has any defensive versatility. He's not strong, and they could see him getting worked over by bigger/stronger wings in the NBA. This is one of the places that the Paul George comp may fall short the most: George is a tough defender even against bigger guys, whereas it isn't clear if Reddish can handle the physicality. His lack of comfort with physicality also appears on offense where he's easily dislodged of the ball off the dribble.

The author suggests that he wouldn't want to draft Reddish in the first round this year. But he acknowledges that Reddish WILL go in the lottery. One other interesting note on Reddish: the author suggests that Reddish might need to get his eyesight checked.

Yeah. Great find, CDu. These are all 18 year-old kids. Only thing is, Barrett plays like's he's 25; Zion, who looks 30, plays like he's 21; Reddish, on the other hand, plays like he's 15.

I have hopes for Reddish, but clearly this is a maturation process.

[CDu]

Yeah. Great find, CDu. These are all 18 year-old kids. Only thing is, Barrett plays like's he's 25; Zion, who looks 30, plays like he's 21; Reddish, on the other hand, plays like he's 15.

I have hopes for Reddish, but clearly this is a maturation process.

Thanks. And you're right, it should all be caveated with the point that it can be really hard to know where the player will end up. Paul George, for example, was playing against midmajor competition when he was a freshman. Kawhi Leonard wasn't nearly an NBA prospect at this age.

I think the big takeaway is:
1. Barrett - he's lived off being more physically advanced than his comp in high school and in college, and his skills are behind what you'd like from an elite prospect. Will he adapt and improve his skills when he's forced to face guys who are consistently as big and as (or more) athletic than him? No real way to know yet. Guys like Butler, George, DeRozan, and Leonard did it. That's what you are hoping he becomes with time. And it is worth noting that he's way ahead of where those guys were at the same age. The key is that those guys are now way ahead of where he is through a lot of work. Not saying he can't get there, and he's got time on his side. But it's going to take some work. I will say that he'll be helped by the NBA having better spacing. Defenses can't collapse the way they do in college, which will help. But he's also going to have more trouble beating his man in the NBA, where the athleticism and size is like night and day. So he's going to have to improve his right hand, his deception (he's got some of the same lack of guile that Grayson had, though not as much so), and his shooting.

2. Reddish has the height/length, defensive effort, and ability to get his shot off. His skills and on-ball IQ are just really low. If he can get stronger and more competent in his ballhandling and decisionmaking, he'd be an absolute stud. But the same could be said for guys like Gerald Green and Terrence Ross. That's not to say Reddish won't figure it out. But he will need a LOT of work. If he was a more consistent shooter, you'd feel good that he'd be at least a legit "3-and-D" wing, which is of huge value. But right now he's anything but a knockdown shooter. He'll go top-10 because (a) it's a weak draft and (b) he has elite potential. But he's got a long way to go to realize that potential.

3. Jones is everything you want from a point guard... except for perhaps the most important skill for a guard in today's NBA (shooting). He'd be a serviceable backup right now if he left, with the potential to develop that shot on the job. Or, he can return and try to improve his shot at Duke (especially with next year's team being lighter on ball-dominant perimeter players).

[Truth&Justise]

Something to keep in mind for Tre Jones: there aren't a lot of great point guards in this draft.

In the 2018 draft, there were 3 point guards taken in the lottery (4 if you count Luka Doncic), and 9 (or 10, with Doncic) in the first 34 picks.
In the 2017 draft, there were 4 point guards taken in the lottery and 7 in the first 34 picks.
In the 2016 draft, there were 3 point guards taken in the lottery and 6 in the first 34 picks.

(Side note, weird that the 34th pick has consistently been a point guard, which makes it a convenient cutoff point to make my argument)

This year, Ja Morant is near the top of the lottery. Then you have Darrius Garland, who will probably go in the lottery. After that...no sure-fire prospects.

So Tre would be competing with guys like Coby White, Ashton Hagans, and Ty Jerome to be the third best point guard in this draft. And odds are two or three of those guys will end up going in the first round.

I don't know how the 2020 draft shapes up for point guards, but the lack of elite competition at his position could mean a slightly inflated draft projection for this year, which could push him closer to leaving than staying

[johnb]

Interesting article. and the author seems to know his basketball.

Another key assertion:

11) So this doesn’t say good things about Reddish and it likely doesn’t say great things about Tre Jones either. The difference is that the risk/reward for Reddish suggests that Reddish should definitely declare, being that he’s a likely top 5 pick, and that Jones should go back to school, being that he may not end up in the first round.

In order to improve as players, going back to school would be beneficial for both. The level of improvement for this type of player tends to be much greater in college than the NBA, at least if they are the kind who is going to improve.

Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle, Shane Battier, Brandon Roy and Brent Barry were all players who would have been run out of the NBA had they entered the league after their freshman seasons, and they are a few of the many who are good examples of this fact.

This doesn't lead me to think they'll return, but it does fit my own bias (ie, if it's not obvious that you'll make it in the NBA, you're better off with another year in college).

[NSDukeFan]

Interesting article. and the author seems to know his basketball.

Another key assertion:

11) So this doesn’t say good things about Reddish and it likely doesn’t say great things about Tre Jones either. The difference is that the risk/reward for Reddish suggests that Reddish should definitely declare, being that he’s a likely top 5 pick, and that Jones should go back to school, being that he may not end up in the first round.

In order to improve as players, going back to school would be beneficial for both. The level of improvement for this type of player tends to be much greater in college than the NBA, at least if they are the kind who is going to improve.

Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle, Shane Battier, Brandon Roy and Brent Barry were all players who would have been run out of the NBA had they entered the league after their freshman seasons, and they are a few of the many who are good examples of this fact.

This doesn't lead me to think they'll return, but it does fit my own bias (ie, if it's not obvious that you'll make it in the NBA, you're better off with another year in college).

Who the heck is Matisse Thybulle?

[dukelifer]

Who the heck is Matisse Thybulle?

Not sure why he is in the list given as he still plays ball at Washington- known as a defensive stopper

[Kedsy]

Who the heck is Matisse Thybulle?

He plays for Washington and was defensive player of the year in the Pac 12 in 2018. This season, he's a senior averaging 3.5 steals per game and 2.2 blocks per game.

[CDu]

Not sure why he is in the list given as he still plays ball at Washington- known as a defensive stopper

Yeah, the guys on that site are very high on him as a prospect. But I agree it is preemptive to include him in a list of guys who were not chewed up and spit out by the NBA since he hasn’t actually played there yet.

[JasonEvans]

Who the heck is Matisse Thybulle?

As others have said, he plays for UDub. He is a 6-6 wing and is generally projected as a mid-2nd round pick. Putting him in a list with those other guys who were quite successful pros (other than Richardson, all of them were taken in the first half of the first round) seems strange.

[dukelifer]

This seems like as good a place as any to post this. It's relevant to DBR in that it is an independent site that does a great job on scouting, and they specifically tackle a couple of questions we've seen recently on DBR: should Jones go pro? where should Reddish be drafted? Note: this article was specifically written about the non-Zion Duke guys. Pretty much everyone agrees he's the #1 pick.

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/03/0...duke-freshmen/

Summary of the article:

1. Barrett is a complicated NBA prospect. He's not overly athletic, not great at dribbling or deception, and not a good shooter, but is a high-volume shooter. That's a bad combination in today's NBA. And while not a liability on defense, he's not great on that end. Not that he doesn't have value, just that it's really hard to peg where he fits on a contending team in a salary capped sport. They do state that he is a hard worker, so it's hard to say where he'll end up skills wise down the road. But the questions they raise are legitimate NBA concerns in that, when he gets to the NBA, he won't be able to play bullyball against smaller, less athletic wings, which is where much of his success has come. Now it is not so much that they think he'll fall out of the top 2 or 3 picks mind you. He's going to go fairly shortly - if not immediately - after Zion. Not surprisingly, they are much higher on Barrett than either of the other two guys.

2. They don't care for Reddish. At all. The key paragraph is here:

Frankly, I think that pretty accurately sums it up. He just doesn't seem to play with great offensive awareness, and doesn't seem to make good decisions on offense. His good games come when his jumpshot is falling, and that's pretty much the one thing he does consistently well offensively is create space to get his jumpshot. That's actually fairly impressive given how awful he has looked off the dribble. But it is a skill that shouldn't be ignored: he's very good at creating his own jumpshot. The question is, can he be good enough as a shooter to make that a valuable skill?

They also raise the point that Reddish is long and skilled defensively, but they question whether he has any defensive versatility. He's not strong, and they could see him getting worked over by bigger/stronger wings in the NBA. This is one of the places that the Paul George comp may fall short the most: George is a tough defender even against bigger guys, whereas it isn't clear if Reddish can handle the physicality. His lack of comfort with physicality also appears on offense where he's easily dislodged of the ball off the dribble.

The author suggests that he wouldn't want to draft Reddish in the first round this year. But he acknowledges that Reddish WILL go in the lottery. One other interesting note on Reddish: the author suggests that Reddish might need to get his eyesight checked.

3. Tre Jones also gets somewhat panned. The section on Jones can be summarized here:


He notes that, because Jones is a good FT shooter (historically at least, and it's looking that way as the season goes on), there's reason for hope with his game. And that he could really use an extra year in college to improve his outside shot and half court offensive game.

The most interesting part of the discussion for me though is this:


Basically, nothing Earth-shattering here. I just thought it was really interesting as a breakdown of our guys. Ultimately, I'd expect all 4 to go pro, with Jones being the only slightly questionable one on the list. Jones is the only one with potential for upward mobility in returning (if he develops a perimeter shot, he's a lottery pick for his other attributes; without it, he's borderline 1st round material). Barrett and Reddish (the former because he's not going to gain anything by returning, the latter because "potential" is keeping his stock super high right now) should go pro without question.

I don’t disagree with much that is said - but rarely are 18 year old players fully developed. All can get much better than they are now and all will get stronger. I believe RJ is going to be good. He is a work in progress but I think he will put in the hours. Time will tell if he becomes an All Star. Both Cam and Tre have more holes in their games and the question is whether they can get better before the end of their first contract. Maybe. None of the three are great shooters - although Cam is streaky- and in the end their shooting will determine what sort of NBA careers they will have. And the end of his Freshman year- Tatum was a force. I would taken Freshman Tatum over all the current Freshman. He just showed more.

[JasonEvans]

I would taken Freshman Tatum over all the current Freshman.

All the current freshmen?!?! Even the injured ones?

Seeing as Tatum went #3 in what was considered a fairly good draft while RJ is projected 2 or 3 in what is considered a fairly weak draft (with Cam and Tre further back in the field), your statement just isn't all that controversial.

[UrinalCake]

This year, Ja Morant is near the top of the lottery. Then you have Darius Garland, who will probably go in the lottery. After that...no sure-fire prospects.

So Tre would be competing with guys like Coby White, Ashton Hagans, and Ty Jerome to be the third best point guard in this draft. And odds are two or three of those guys will end up going in the first round.

Not sure if you consider Romeo Langford to be a point guard, but I'd put him ahead of Tre on the draft board (even though Jones did clearly outplay him head to head. Also older guys like Markus Howard of Marquette and Carsen Edwards of Purdue, Shamorie Ponds from St. Johns, and Ky Bowman of BC are much better scorers than Jones. I guess it comes down to how much a team will value defense over offense for a late draft pick. I also disagree with the assessment that Tre's ONLY weakness is his three point shooting. His offensive game overall is weak, and against NBA defenders would be nonexistent.

[dukelifer]

All the current freshmen?!?! Even the injured ones?

Seeing as Tatum went #3 in what was considered a fairly good draft while RJ is projected 2 or 3 in what is considered a fairly weak draft (with Cam and Tre further back in the field), your statement just isn't all that controversial.

Zion will sell tickets so that is hard to pass up - but he too will need to develop a jumper.

[DukeTrinity11]

I don’t disagree with much that is said - but rarely are 18 year old players fully developed. All can get much better than they are now and all will get stronger. I believe RJ is going to be good. He is a work in progress but I think he will put in the hours. Time will tell if he becomes an All Star. Both Cam and Tre have more holes in their games and the question is whether they can get better before the end of their first contract. Maybe. None of the three are great shooters - although Cam is streaky- and in the end their shooting will determine what sort of NBA careers they will have. And the end of his Freshman year- Tatum was a force. I would taken Freshman Tatum over all the current Freshman. He just showed more.

Barrett, Bagley, Okafor and Zion have all been better than Tatum at Duke during their OAD year right unless I'm not understanding what you're saying?

[brevity]

ESPN: Missouri sophomore Jontay Porter suffers 2nd ACL tear

Missouri sophomore big man Jontay Porter recently re-tore the ACL that caused him to miss the entire season, a school spokesman confirmed to ESPN on Saturday... He is ranked as the No. 3 center and No. 24 player overall in ESPN's rankings for this year's NBA draft.

The article reminds us that Jontay's older brother Michael was drafted by Denver last year despite having a back injury, and also tells us that they have two sisters with histories of multiple knee injuries.

[Phredd3]

The article reminds us that Jontay's older brother Michael was drafted by Denver last year despite having a back injury, and also tells us that they have two sisters with histories of multiple knee injuries.

Women are much more vulnerable to knee injuries than men.

[JasonEvans]

A few major updates:

Louisville's Jordan Nwora is "testing the waters". If he is dead set on being a first rounder then I think he comes back.

Syracuse's Tyus Battle is going into the draft. He's a likely 2nd rounder.

Duke killer (in 2018) Shammorie Ponds of St John is turning pro. My crystal ball says he goes in the 2nd round, but if he works out well, it is not impossible he could get picked in the 20s.

Lastly, when you have a moment I urge all of you to check out this article about the way "testing the waters" has changed this year. Kids can do a lot more with agents than they could in the past, but be careful because if you decide to return to school, you must pay the agent back and that could get to be expensive.