Way too early: So who is going to be good next year?

[simplyluvin]

I am skeptical of Gonzaga being that good. They will be very young. They lose Perkins, Hachimura, and Clarke from their starters and important bench players Geno Crandall and Jeremy Jones. Zach Norvell, Killian Tillie, and Filip Petrusev have declared for the NBA Draft and I expect at least one of them will go pro. They bring in a very talented and deep recruiting class, but none of them are of the Top 25 variety. If they lose Tillie and Norvell, it will be essentially a brand new team a la Duke and Kentucky of recent years. The difference being that no one knows if anyone can create their own shot or defend. I think they will be a good team, a top 25 squad. But being in the top 10 or even 5 is a stretch.

Memphis would need RJ Hampton to be a top 5 in my mind, and to land Precious Achiuwa as it seems they will. Even then, they will look a lot like recent Duke and Kentucky teams but without the coaching staff that has a track record of coaching that kind of team. I would put them in the Top 10 if they land Hampton and Achiuwa.

Michigan State is a lock for #1 and I do think Duke and Kentucky are right there at #2 and #3 in some order.

Completely agree with you on Gonzaga. They're losing too much to be ranked that high.

Kansas is also in the same boat. Unless Devon Dotson and the Lawsons come back, there is no way they will be Top 10.

[Troublemaker]

I think Nwora is better than any of our returning players. I think Enoch and Williams are better than Bolden and DeLaurier. I think Sutton is better than any of our returning wings. I think McMahon is comparable to O’Connell. I think Perry is better than Goldwire. So, yes, I think they are returning more talent (key caveat being returns of Enoch and Nwora). I think the presence of Williamson/Barrett/Reddish masked a lot of the limitations of our other players.

Again though, I think our incoming class is much more talented than theirs, so I would pick us over them in aggregate. But I do think they return more talent than we do.

Hmmm, we're not going to agree on this one. (Keeping in mind this is all in good offseason talk / fun mode).

Tre destroys whatever Louisville guard you have bringing it up the court. And I do think Tre is the best player returning on either team, even though I love Nwora. You say the Duke trio that left masked team limitations -- maybe, but I also think they masked how good Tre is, and he's going to be a great college player next season with his usage going up. I disagree that their bigs are better. I think it's a wash -- Lville's bigs are better offensively, but Duke's are better defensively. And with AOC, Joey, and Jack spreading the court, our bigs don't need to do more than catch lob-dunks after Tre penetrates a spread court. Duke 70, Louisville 65.

All in all, we're probably splitting hairs between two fringe NCAA tourney teams (since we're removing the freshmen from the rosters). Both teams will need their freshmen to play well to dream big stuff.

[Dukehk]

Hmmm, we're not going to agree on this one. (Keeping in mind this is all in good offseason talk / fun mode).

Tre destroys whatever Louisville guard you have bringing it up the court. And I do think Tre is the best player returning on either team, even though I love Nwora. You say the Duke trio that left masked team limitations -- maybe, but I also think they masked how good Tre is, and he's going to be a great college player next season with his usage going up. I disagree that their bigs are better. I think it's a wash -- Lville's bigs are better offensively, but Duke's are better defensively. And with AOC, Joey, and Jack spreading the court, our bigs don't need to do more than catch lob-dunks after Tre penetrates a spread court. Duke 70, Louisville 65.

All in all, we're probably splitting hairs between two fringe NCAA tourney teams (since we're removing the freshmen from the rosters). Both teams will need their freshmen to play well to dream big stuff.

The ville have a grad transfer called Lamarr Kimble coming in next year for them. He averaged 15.6 ppg for St Josephs last year so possibly an improvement on cunningham.

No doubt Tre is going to take his game to the next level though! I agree he can lock down any PG in the country, but with a likely higher offensive workload, he might not be able to play that high intensity defense all the time. Here's hoping that the Freshmen turn out better than advertised, because we will need alot of offense to replace RJ and Zion.

It looks like we are playing louisville at home this year anyways. So I'm definitely confident we can beat them at CIS. Its playing away from home that is going to be trouble. Lets face it, we had to come back from 23 points down to win this year! They are going to be a tough team to beat next year if they return everyone.

[CDu]

Hmmm, we're not going to agree on this one. (Keeping in mind this is all in good offseason talk / fun mode).

Tre destroys whatever Louisville guard you have bringing it up the court. And I do think Tre is the best player returning on either team, even though I love Nwora. You say the Duke trio that left masked team limitations -- maybe, but I also think they masked how good Tre is, and he's going to be a great college player next season with his usage going up. I disagree that their bigs are better. I think it's a wash -- Lville's bigs are better offensively, but Duke's are better defensively. And with AOC, Joey, and Jack spreading the court, our bigs don't need to do more than catch lob-dunks after Tre penetrates a spread court. Duke 70, Louisville 65.

All in all, we're probably splitting hairs between two fringe NCAA tourney teams (since we're removing the freshmen from the rosters). Both teams will need their freshmen to play well to dream big stuff.

Yep, not going to agree. And yep, neither team would be great so sort of pointless to debate it further. Especially since both teams have a lot coming in (Louisville with Kimble and a good freshman class; Duke with a great freshman class).

[scottdude8]

Not sure if this got posted, but ESPN updated their rankings yesterday. Of note, we moved up from 6 to 2... I expect that we'll be at 2 or 3 in most rankings considering a lot of the early Top 5 teams got hit hardest by departures (read my thoughts on that here!). Michigan also benefitted from that and moved up into the Top 5, which I think is right around where they deserve to be... no other team in the country returns senior, all-conference level players at both PG and Center (and Jon Teske is a classic center at 7-foot-1 who can also shoot the 3 and guard switches... don't be surprised if he gets some 2020 draft buzz if Michigan and him succeed this year), so I think the Wolverines should be there regardless of Iggy's decision. Interestingly they bump UNC up all the way to No. 12 from No. 23 based on Cole Anthony and the grad-transfer successes. Also, Marquette dropped all the way from No. 2 to OUT of the rankings... makes sense considering, without the Hauser bros, Wojo's squad could be a one-man show led by Markus Howard.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not sure if this got posted, but ESPN updated their rankings yesterday. Of note, we moved up from 6 to 2... I expect that we'll be at 2 or 3 in most rankings considering a lot of the early Top 5 teams got hit hardest by departures (read my thoughts on that here!). Michigan also benefitted from that and moved up into the Top 5, which I think is right around where they deserve to be... no other team in the country returns senior, all-conference level players at both PG and Center (and Jon Teske is a classic center at 7-foot-1 who can also shoot the 3 and guard switches... don't be surprised if he gets some 2020 draft buzz if Michigan and him succeed this year), so I think the Wolverines should be there regardless of Iggy's decision. Interestingly they bump UNC up all the way to No. 12 from No. 23 based on Cole Anthony and the grad-transfer successes. Also, Marquette dropped all the way from No. 2 to OUT of the rankings... makes sense considering, without the Hauser bros, Wojo's squad could be a one-man show led by Markus Howard.

Count me in the crowd that is skeptical of Michigan for next season. Part of their success the past two years was having multiple wings that could switch 2 through 4. Losing Poole and Matthews are big losses and they may yet lose Iggy. Zavier Simpson is a great defensive point guard and Teske is an improving center that blocks shots and hits the occasional three. There remain serious questions about the team's ability to defend and score the ball next season. They have a couple of rotation players in Eli Brooks and Isaiah Livers that can step up and start for them. But neither Brooks or Livers provide the kind of defensive versatility that made the Michigan team so formidable the past couple of seasons. Brooks is a 6'1" point guard that can play off the ball a little. Livers is an undersized stretch 4. If they lose Iggy, they have no obvious small forward or even a player that can create their own offense. It's weird to see a team that is poised to lose its top 3 players and improve without bringing in any notable players, either. Is the national media banking on Michigan being good just because of the head coach? It seems like they are getting that kind of treatment.

[scottdude8]

Count me in the crowd that is skeptical of Michigan for next season. Part of their success the past two years was having multiple wings that could switch 2 through 4. Losing Poole and Matthews are big losses and they may yet lose Iggy. Zavier Simpson is a great defensive point guard and Teske is an improving center that blocks shots and hits the occasional three. There remain serious questions about the team's ability to defend and score the ball next season. They have a couple of rotation players in Eli Brooks and Isaiah Livers that can step up and start for them. But neither Brooks or Livers provide the kind of defensive versatility that made the Michigan team so formidable the past couple of seasons. Brooks is a 6'1" point guard that can play off the ball a little. Livers is an undersized stretch 4. If they lose Iggy, they have no obvious small forward or even a player that can create their own offense. It's weird to see a team that is poised to lose its top 3 players and improve without bringing in any notable players, either. Is the national media banking on Michigan being good just because of the head coach? It seems like they are getting that kind of treatment.

Those are all super valid concerns. The thing that makes me optimistic as someone who follows the team closely is the fact that the upcoming sophomore class is the best recruiting class in Beilein’s tenure, even if Iggy leaves, and historically under him players make big jumps between their freshmen and sophomore seasons. Brandon Johns is a Michigan Mr. Basketball who showed flashes playing down low as a freshman but is more naturally a wing. David DeJulius is a combo guard who showed massive scoring ability in high school and can shoot the rock, but guards take at least a year typically to adjust to Beilein’s complex offense. Plus, the two incoming freshmen are both wings, with Jaylen Wilson projecting as an instant impact guy.

All of those are major unknowns (as would be Franz Wagner if he comes), but there are enough viable options that make me optimistic just by the law of large numbers that someone will shake out as a scorer. It isn’t like the cupboard is bare of talent, it’s just that some of that talent needs to seize the opportunity. All that said, even if Michigan struggles to score while they may not be a top 5 team, they’ll still be in the hunt (think Texas Tech this year).

[richardjackson199]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him. (But maybe the cheat scandal outcome should give me pause.)

And the more interesting question is where do Arizona's stud recruits end up next year?

Much is yet to be determined.

[NSDukeFan]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him. (But maybe the cheat scandal outcome should give me pause.)

And the more interesting question is where do Arizona's stud recruits end up next year?

Much is yet to be determined.

Couldn’t Miller just say that he either misspoke before and/or he offered money to some non-athletes and/or their families?

[Dukehk]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him. (But maybe the cheat scandal outcome should give me pause.)

And the more interesting question is where do Arizona's stud recruits end up next year?

Much is yet to be determined.

Haven't heard any news at all about their current recruits decommitting though.

I guess it depends on how quickly the NCAA investigate, and we all know they take their time!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Haven't heard any news at all about their current recruits decommitting though.

I guess it depends on how quickly the NCAA investigate, and we all know they take their time!

The thing about Miller, though, is that there wasn't any wiretaps or audio of him presented in court. You would think that would have been played by now. There appear to be tapes of Wade at LSU. So maybe there were a lot of scummy guys around the Arizona program but Miller wasn't one of them. I don't know, he might just get through this unless there's something more than the words of a proven liar like Christian Dawkins.

[CDu]

The thing about Miller, though, is that there wasn't any wiretaps or audio of him presented in court. You would think that would have been played by now. There appear to be tapes of Wade at LSU. So maybe there were a lot of scummy guys around the Arizona program but Miller wasn't one of them. I don't know, he might just get through this unless there's something more than the words of a proven liar like Christian Dawkins.

There are statements by Miller’s assistant coach too though.

[UrinalCake]

New rules in place state that the head coach can be held accountable for his staff even if he had no knowledge of what was happening. Book Richardson was on multiple wiretaps and video tapes receiving money for players. I've been as snarky about the NCAA as anybody with regards to their handling of the UNC-CHeat cheating, but the way they handle players receiving money is completely different from how they handle academic fraud. They want no part of determining the academic credibility of a class and leave that up to the schools, which is a big part of why the CHeats got away with it. But when it comes to players receiving money, they'll come down hard even for relatively minor infractions. And what Arizona is accused of is definitely NOT minor.

[Wander]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him.

I think people have learned recently through UNC and that you can just... choose to not quit or get fired in the face of controversial issues when there's not a strong governing body to impose punishment. Unless the person in question is literally going to be physically forced into prison, there's nothing stopping a university from just... not firing the coach. There may be some media backlash but that's always temporary and/or the behavior is normalized and/or the behavior becomes the precursor to a redemption story.

Now, I think Miller will not be the coach at Arizona next year... but he should have been fired a year ago and wasn't, so. Stranger things have happened.

[devildeac]

Couldn’t Miller just say that he either misspoke before and/or he offered money to some non-athletes and/or their families?

"Not my voice on the tape."

"Typo in transcribing the conversation."

Hey, those lies (or something like them) have worked before...

[gofurman]

I agree that No. 2 "feels" too high for us. But the question is if not us, who? Michigan will still be great, but not the No. 2 team many projected with Poole and (possibly) Iggy surprisingly leaving. Kansas will essentially be a brand new team next year (although Azubuike returning will be a big help if he stays healthy). Gonzaga will be good because they always are, but they also lose a majority of their contributors from this year's squad. Same situation applied to Kentucky. Nova could be in for a bounce back year with a great recruiting class, but that's also a huge unknown.

I could continue going on and on (and will when I get around to Part 3 of my 2020 outlook, haha), but basically besides MSU there is almost zero "known quantities" in CBB next year. You could argue that Tre is the most impactful returning player for any top 10 team besides MSU. If Javin and/or Marques return, Duke will also have as much upperclass leadership as any non-MSU team as well. So I understand why these writers who are forced to put numbers next to team names, when faced with a handful of teams that are arguably interchangeable, go with the most known quantity, us, first.

Yes. While number 2 or top 5 may ‘Feel’ too high the way I look at it is literally. Who is better and returning more. ? If you can’t name anyone then Duke is top 5. Sound like MSU, Duke (if at least one of DeLaurier or Bolden return), UNC (w Anthony if he develops) are all top 10

[Nugget]

Great news for Tommy Amaker with Bryce Aiken's decision to return to Harvard for his Senior season.

Harvard should be loaded next year, with Sr. wing Seth Towns (who was its leading scorer two years ago before sitting out last season with injury) also returning, along with a slew of other seniors from the ballyhooed class of 2016 (ranked by ESPN #10 in the country) who have had substantial playing experience, such as PG Christian Juzang, Wing Justin Bassey, PF Robert Baker and PF/C Chris Lewis.

In all, Harvard will return 10 players who played over 200 minutes last year, plus Towns and another strong recruiting class that includes 4-star Wing Chris Ludlum (#89 in 247 Sports Composite Top 100).

If Tommy can keep everyone reasonably healthy and happy, Harvard should be one of the strongest mid-majors next year. If they can get by Penn in the Ivies they would seem to be in line to grab a high seed in the 10-12 range. And, it wouldn't shock me to see Harvard do next year what Wofford and Buffalo did this year and earn a single digit seed. Hopefully, Tommy will schedule some non-conference challenges befitting a club this strong.

[PackMan97]

Markell Johnson has withdrawn from the NBA draft and will return to NC State.

Incoming recruit, Jalen Lecque, is still in the NBA draft and from what I hear will likely not play at NC State next season. That and NC State is currently at 14 scholarships, so somethings got to give.

[907bluedevils]

Kansas should have one of the best front courts in the nation next year with Auzubike returning and De Sousa getting eligibility.

[Lurkingdukedog]

Those are all super valid concerns. The thing that makes me optimistic as someone who follows the team closely is the fact that the upcoming sophomore class is the best recruiting class in Beilein’s tenure, even if Iggy leaves, and historically under him players make big jumps between their freshmen and sophomore seasons. Brandon Johns is a Michigan Mr. Basketball who showed flashes playing down low as a freshman but is more naturally a wing. David DeJulius is a combo guard who showed massive scoring ability in high school and can shoot the rock, but guards take at least a year typically to adjust to Beilein’s complex offense. Plus, the two incoming freshmen are both wings, with Jaylen Wilson projecting as an instant impact guy.

All of those are major unknowns (as would be Franz Wagner if he comes), but there are enough viable options that make me optimistic just by the law of large numbers that someone will shake out as a scorer. It isn’t like the cupboard is bare of talent, it’s just that some of that talent needs to seize the opportunity. All that said, even if Michigan struggles to score while they may not be a top 5 team, they’ll still be in the hunt (think Texas Tech this year).

I recognize this was written a few weeks ago but with the coach leaving, shouldn't Michigan's outlook be more "iffy"?