Way to early to talk about this intelligently. Signings aren't done, coaches haven't finished chasing the money, underclassmen are still considering the draft, and so forth. I scanned Davis' article in The Athletic, which was full of "if this", "if that", "depends on", etc.
All I know is that Duke will be ranked top 5 again, with or without Hurt. Whether Carolina will be ranked as high totally depends on getting Cole Anthony.
9F
I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.
I've got bad news for you. UNC is in commanding lead for Precious according to analytics. Kansas is in 2nd place...
https://www.pasrforecast.com/
Brazdeikis reportedly declaring and signing with an agent (per Givony and the Athletic twitter accounts). Matthews presumed to be going pro. Maybe they retain Poole, but losing Matthews and Brazdeikis would a huge hit on their top-end talent.
CBS's Garry Parrish has his "early" Top 25 +1 projecting Michigan at #2, despite losing both of those guys. https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...r-next-season/
The rest of his Top 10 and others of major note are:
1 Mich St. (assumes Winston and Ward both return)
2 Michigan (losing Iggy and Matthews)
3 Virginia (losing Hunter and Jerome)
4 Duke (assumes we sign Hurt)
5 Auburn
6 Kentucky (losing PJ, Johnson, Herro and Hagans)
7 Louisville (assumes Nwora comes back)
8 Marquette
9 Maryland (losing Fernando)
10 North Carolina (assumes they get Anthony)
Kansas at #11, Gonzaga #12, Nova #14 and no one else from the ACC in the Top 25.
Yeah, Michigan is definitely not #2 without Brazdeikis and Matthews. Nor do I think UVa is #3 without Hunter and Jerome. I don't think Parrish is very good at "way too early" predictions.
Well, I take that back: he's gotten at least two people talking about his prediction, including a link. So, maybe he is good at it, assuming the goal is to get clicks and not to be right.
Certainly, successful in drawing clicks. Also, if you ask him, his track record suggests it's not too, too far away from being "right," as he argues:
"And before you scream 'but it's too early to rank teams for next season because we aren't even sure who's coming and going,' understand that I did this exact exercise on the night of the 2018 title game, and 14 of the 16 schools that ultimately made the Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament were in my initial Top 25 And 1."
Now, most of us probably could also sitting here today predict 14 of next year's Top 25, but I don't see too much that was obviously wrong in his day-after-the-title game picks last year, other than he, like everyone else in the world, wildly underestimated Chris Beard's magic, he overrated Villanova (expecting Dante to come back and for Quinnerly to perform like a Top 15 player), he didn't foresee West Virginia (#18) and UCLA (#20) falling off a cliff, and he (like most of us) had no idea Brazdeikis would be so dynamic right off the bat, as he had, among others:
1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Villanova
4. Auburn
5. Tennessee
6. Kentucky
7. Gonzaga
8. Virginia
9. Carolina
10. Nevada
11. Michigan St.
13. Virginia Tech
15. Florida St.
19. Oregon
21. LSU
23. Michigan
26. Purdue
No Virginia fan I know thinks Hunter will stay. Most also think Jerome will leave. Had the hoos lost, there was some reason to think Jerome might return to try and win one, but now he's all but certain to go as well.
Virginia will still be good next year, but definitely taking a step back. 7-10 is probably about right.
A redditor put together a spreadsheet of the way-too-early Top 25 rankings that have been released. They include 247 Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN, NBC Sports, NCAA (Andy Katz), SB Nation, SI, Sporting News, and USA Today. Duke comes in at 5th in the initial batch of rankings, appearing as high as 3rd and as low as 7th. That's right about the range where I would put this team.
Here is the composite rankings:
1. Michigan State
2. Kentucky
3. Virginia
4. Michigan
5. Duke
6. Marquette
7. Oregon
8. Kansas
9. Gonzaga
10. Villanova
11. Louisville
12. Auburn
13. Maryland
14. Texas Tech
15. North Carolina
16. Ohio State
17. Seton Hall
18. Tennessee
19. Arizona
20. Cincinnati
21. Houston
22. Purdue
23. Washington
24. Florida
25. Iowa
I could see, depending upon how things shake out, Duke moving up to #3 or #2 by the time October rolls around.
Michigan might lose one or all of Charles Matthews, Iggy Brazdeikis, and Jordan Poole, their talented wings. Matthews is almost certainly gone while Iggy appears to be intent on staying in the draft. Poole is more of a question mark, although I think he has the most upside of the three. If they do return all 3, they will stay up there in the top 4. But I do not think that will happen and Duke will move up a slot.
Now that UVA has won the National Title, they stand to lose some key pieces, most notably De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome. I think both leave. Jerome is a potential first round selection and Hunter is a lottery pick. They won the whole shebang. It's their time. And UVA will not be the same without those two. I think they will still be good, but their ceiling is much lower on both offense and defense without them.
Kentucky is already losing its two best frontcourt players in Reid Travis and PJ Washington. They do not have a Class of 2019 recruit to replace either, although they are bringing in a grad transfer that is a stretch 4. They are almost certainly losing Keldon Johnson, their best and only wing. It's possible they could lose Ashton Hagans and Tyler Herro, their top PG and SG, respectively. Herro, Washington, and Johnson were the only reliable shooters on the team, too. If they lose all 3, UK might slip. Calipari always has a rabbit up his sleeve, so don't hold your breath.
If I had to guess, MSU will be #1 as it seems Cassius Winston is intent on staying in college. Kentucky and Duke will follow with Virginia or Marquette just behind Duke when the dust settles. That's a good spot for Duke.
I'm absolutely heartbroken as a Michigan fan right now (and I was already having a crappy day at work, so this is the proverbial cherry on top, haha). As mentioned here, losing all three of these guys was the doomsday scenario that most thought was very unlikely until moments ago.
That said, let's not forget that Michigan also lost three key contributors from the 2018 runners up (a first round pick in Mo Wagner, a guy who earned a two-way contract in Duncan Robinson, and a solid G-Leaguer and invaluable senior leader in Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman). No one had them anywhere near the top tier of contenders entering the year, and they still ended up a Sweet 16 team (losing to the eventual tourney runners up) and a No. 2 seed. As mentioned before, there is a ton of young talent waiting in the wings in Ann Arbor already, two high 4* recruits who can play on the wing coming in, and now the possibility of an impact grad transfer is realistic. If this goes to form and Michigan loses all three guys they'll by no means be a Top-5 team in the preseason, but there's every reason to believe they have a chance to be a Top-10 team come year's end.
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
I discussed that in detail above, but there is zero chatter from MSU fans or insiders that Cassius is thinking about the draft, which makes sense given that his size and athleticism just don't fit the modern NBA point guard. NBADraft.net has him as a late second rounder in 2020. Nick Ward is a more likely loss for MSU than Winston is.
Howard I'm not so sure about, but I've got to think he's the type of guy who's stock is never going to be higher than it is right now... and now that teams know who he is and how he plays and have a season to prepare for him, he may come back down to earth next year. He may be a second rounder too, but IMHO he's much more likely than Winston to go pro right now.
Scott Rich on the front page
Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
K-Ville Blue Tenting 2009-2012
Unofficial Brian Zoubek Biographer
If you have questions about Michigan Basketball/Football, I'm your man!
Some teams who will be very good next year who aren't being talked about as much:
Oregon. I"m almost glad they probably won't be getting Cole Anthony. Almost, dadgummit.
Arizona. Things could change with the Miller situation. But if that team stays together, and it might, they will be very good with the players joining who they already have.
VCU. They bring everybody back.
and of course everybody realizes it, but MSU is going to be lethal.
Hopefully Duke will as well.
Hagans is returning, so they'll be dangerous in the backcourt with their 3 5* PGs.
Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'