What was a year at Duke worth to Zion in terms of marketing value?

[Herbie]

There has been so much talk (rightly so!) about the $$ that the NCAA, ESPN, CBS, Duke, etc has made off of the Zion craze this year but I have not seen any real estimates about the marketing value that Zion himself has gained from the exposure that he has gotten in his 1 year at Duke vs if he had been able to go directly to the NBA straight out of high school. Putting aside the debate over whether or not he would have been the #1 pick coming straight out of high school to the NBA if that were allowed, what was the marketing value alone of his year at Duke? Some estimates are that he may now be one of only 9 rookies ever to have an exclusive shoe contract. Would he have gotten that if he went straight to the NBA from HS? He may be looking at a $100M sneaker deal ($10M for 10 years)..what would that have looked like had he not had a year at Duke ($50M)? What is the value of his Instagram following going from 2M to 3M? What other marketing deals will he get now that he would not have gotten with a year as the face of college basketball (Gatorade, etc)?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

There has been so much talk (rightly so!) about the $$ that the NCAA, ESPN, CBS, Duke, etc has made off of the Zion craze this year but I have not seen any real estimates about the marketing value that Zion himself has gained from the exposure that he has gotten in his 1 year at Duke vs if he had been able to go directly to the NBA straight out of high school. Putting aside the debate over whether or not he would have been the #1 pick coming straight out of high school to the NBA if that were allowed, what was the marketing value alone of his year at Duke? Some estimates are that he may now be one of only 9 rookies ever to have an exclusive shoe contract. Would he have gotten that if he went straight to the NBA from HS? He may be looking at a $100M sneaker deal ($10M for 10 years)..what would that have looked like had he not had a year at Duke ($50M)? What is the value of his Instagram following going from 2M to 3M? What other marketing deals will he get now that he would not have gotten with a year as the face of college basketball (Gatorade, etc)?

You said "putting aside if he would have been the #1 pick," but I have to point out that he definitely would not have been.

The other questions are interesting, but relatively unknowable. He definitely expanded his brand via DUKE, the ACC, the NCAA, and ESPN.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You said "putting aside if he would have been the #1 pick," but I have to point out that he definitely would not have been.

The other questions are interesting, but relatively unknowable. He definitely expanded his brand via DUKE, the ACC, the NCAA, and ESPN.

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke. The mega exposure Duke gets normally was another huge benefit. And yes, he expanded his brand via Duke, ACC, NCAA and ESPN...and Duke benefitted greatly as well. This was the classic win/win scenario. Duke won. Zion won. The fans won.

[Lurkingdukedog]

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke. The mega exposure Duke gets normally was another huge benefit. And yes, he expanded his brand via Duke, ACC, NCAA and ESPN...and Duke benefitted greatly as well. This was the classic win/win scenario. Duke won. Zion won. The fans won.

I think there is the distinct possibility that his game improved under the coaches' tutelage. . . . .

[Phredd3]

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke.

I completely disagree. The number one advantage he got from a year at Duke was a full season of almost non-stop national exposure, starting right with the spectacle of the UK game to begin the season. After that, Zion was all anyone could talk about. The shoe explosion added a ton of value, especially because of the fact that it happened in a major rivalry game that was attended by an ex-President. He went from a player with marginal name recognition, to probably the #1 marketable rookie since LeBron.

That season was probably worth tens of millions of dollars, even without the Natty, and most of that value was added outside of his on-court contract and draft position.

[Rich]

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke. The mega exposure Duke gets normally was another huge benefit. And yes, he expanded his brand via Duke, ACC, NCAA and ESPN...and Duke benefitted greatly as well. This was the classic win/win scenario. Duke won. Zion won. The fans won.

Too soon

[-jk]

To the OP, I think it's all about the shoe.

And the bidding war to get him to wear a pair.

Gonna be a bumpy ride!

-jk

[JNort]

To the OP, I think it's all about the shoe.

And the bidding war to get him to wear a pair.

Gonna be a bumpy ride!

-jk

Wonder how long until we get a 30 for 30 or something about the shoe bidding war that is about to start.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

To the OP, I think it's all about the shoe.

And the bidding war to get him to wear a pair.

Gonna be a bumpy ride!

-jk

That shoe blowout gave Zion the most leverage ever in the history of shoe contracts.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I completely disagree. The number one advantage he got from a year at Duke was a full season of almost non-stop national exposure, starting right with the spectacle of the UK game to begin the season. \

With due respect, I don't think you read my post very well. I put what you mentioned as a CLOSE SECOND.....so maybe we only 95% agree instead of 100%...I implore you to go re read.

[Furniture]

During the season my brother in law and my nephew have both sent me WhatsApp {texts} about Zion. They are British ( live in England of course) and don’t follow basketball. Zion is news everywhere.

[Phredd3]

With due respect, I don't think you read my post very well. I put what you mentioned as a CLOSE SECOND....so maybe we only 95% agree instead of 100%...I implore you to go re read.

Maybe, but you said the draft position was the "single biggest" advantage, and exposure was "another huge benefit". The implication was that the two were at best close to equal value. The increase in contract value between the fourth pick and the top pick is roughly $5.5 million, maybe a bit more when you consider the qualifying offer increases (although since those offers are mostly based on performance at that point, I don't think those should really count).

I think the increase in endorsement potential outstrips the salary increase by a factor of at least three, and maybe as much 20x. The increase in endorsement potential absolutely dwarfs the contract increase. So I'd say my agreement with you is roughly 33% at most, and maybe as low as 5%.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Maybe, but you said the draft position was the "single biggest" advantage, and exposure was "another huge benefit". The implication was that the two were at best close to equal value. The increase in contract value between the fourth pick and the top pick is roughly $5.5 million, maybe a bit more when you consider the qualifying offer increases (although since those offers are mostly based on performance at that point, I don't think those should really count).

I think the increase in endorsement potential outstrips the salary increase by a factor of at least three, and maybe as much 20x. The increase in endorsement potential absolutely dwarfs the contract increase. So I'd say my agreement with you is roughly 33% at most, and maybe as low as 5%.

*gets his popcorn*

[budwom]

That shoe blowout gave Zion the most leverage ever in the history of shoe contracts.

yup, and the current over/under on a shoe contract for him (I know, it's guesswork) is around $75 million...before this year, there would have been no talk of a shoe contract for him (yet). Not bad for a few months work

[camion]

How much leverage would a shoe deal (and any other considerations) give Zion in choosing/avoiding a team in the NBA draft? I know some football quarterbacks have maneuvered in such a way. What about a basketball player?

[DarkstarWahoo]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

[Indoor66]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

How many pieces can this issue be cut into? Duke has EVERY game it plays televised. Clemson does not.

Zion got a level of exposure playing at Duke that created an opinion that was amplified week after week by his being on TV a couple times every week. That dynamic does not exist for a player at Clemson or almost any other School.

[budwom]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

The Clemson notion is completely irrelevant. The question was, what was a year at Duke worth? There was no year at Clemson.
I see the question as comparing Zion's worth had he gone directly to the NBA vs taking the year at Duke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

You missed the point...the question is Zion's marketing with Duke versus Zion's marketing without college. As for the other, Zion at Clemson or South Carolina would've been huge buzz, but NOT the buzz of Zion with Duke.

[Ian]

Yeah, the comparison is about a year at Duke versus directly to the NBA. As people have pointed out, although top players who go to college don't get paid in cash, they do get many benefits that leads to higher compensation. It's not nearly the one sided transaction that the popular narrative make it out to be.
Having said that, I still don't like the idea that players are prevented from going directly to the NBA via an age limit, and I don't agree with the NCAA's insistance on "amatuer status".