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  1. #381
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    According to the experts, Tiger will need to finish 11th or better (not T11, solo 11 or better) to make the top 30. I would imagine that Spieth and Day may need to actually be 10th or better to keep playing.
    Realistically, Tiger and others in a similar position need to finish 1, 2 or 3 this week to avoid being hopelessly behind when play starts at East Lake. Tiger has 1,003 points; Koepka leads at 2,980, with Patrick Reed and Rory only a couple of hundred points behind. Anyone qualifying as 26-30 is conceding five to ten strokes to the top five players. Ain't gonna happen that all of the top five in the standings will have lousy tournaments at East Lake, and it is very unlikely to happen that someone back in the pack will win East Lake outright by 5-10 strokes
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  2. #382
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    I don't mean to their a wrench in the system, and I'm not even currently entered, so I really have no say, but it seems to me that the crux of the problem is using prize money rather than stroke totals to decide who wins the contest.
    Even in regular tour events, the prize money is heavily distributed toward the top end of the finishers.

  3. #383
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    According to the experts, Tiger will need to finish 11th or better (not T11, solo 11 or better) to make the top 30. I would imagine that Spieth and Day may need to actually be 10th or better to keep playing.
    Yes, I was just giving the "mathematically alive" example with the "top-20". Woods, for example, is 93 points out of 30th right now. So he has to make up 93 points on Putnam AND not have any of the guys in #31-37 do enough to stay ahead of him AND not have anyone from #39-70 overtake him. Finishing #20 would give him 180 points. So if the guys in #30-37 and #39-70 finish no better than 32nd and Woods finishes 20th this week, he's in at #30 (maybe even better, depending upon how the guys at 29 and 28 do. But that requires things going almost exactly right.

    Realistically, he's going to have to do better. Finishing 11th would give him 280 points, which would give him much more wiggle room. Then, he just needs the guys in the #30-37 to not finish better than top-20 and to not get beaten out by any of the guys in the #39-70 range.

    Spieth is 47 points behind Woods, so he probably needs a top-9 finish to feel safe. But mathematically, he probably only needs a top-20 to have a chance.

    Day is 95 points behind Spieth (so 142 behind Woods and 235 out of the top-30). He probably needs a top-5 finish to be safe, but could technically get there with a top-10 and a bunch of other things going right.

  4. #384
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Realistically, Tiger and others in a similar position need to finish 1, 2 or 3 this week to avoid being hopelessly behind when play starts at East Lake. Tiger has 1,003 points; Koepka leads at 2,980, with Patrick Reed and Rory only a couple of hundred points behind. Anyone qualifying as 26-30 is conceding five to ten strokes to the top five players. Ain't gonna happen that all of the top five in the standings will have lousy tournaments at East Lake, and it is very unlikely to happen that someone back in the pack will win East Lake outright by 5-10 strokes
    Eh, I don't know about that. Remember, they don't have to win the tournament by 5 to 10 strokes. They just have to beat a specific 5 players by 5 to 10 strokes.

    Let's take a look at last week for example. The top-5 going in were Koepka, McIlroy, Kuchar, Schauffele, and Woodland. How did they do relative to the winner (Reed, who came in at #50)? Koepka finished 10 back. McIlroy 4 back. Kuchar and Schauffele both missed the cut entirely. And Woodland finished 13 back.

    It's certainly possible that the top-5 going into the final event could all fail to win the tournament. Maybe not likely, but very possible.

    There is a TON of variability in performances from week to week. If someone goes REALLY low (like -15 or -20), they can win even with the handicapped system. It will be really hard to do so, and starting with a 5- to 10-stroke lead is definitely a big advantage. But it is certainly possible for the #26-30 player to still win. They just need to play well and to have the top-5 play relatively poorly.

    I would certainly bet on the players who are in the top-5 of next week's standings. But it's far from a guarantee, as last week showed.

  5. #385
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Eh, I don't know about that. Remember, they don't have to win the tournament by 5 to 10 strokes. They just have to beat a specific 5 players by 5 to 10 strokes.

    Let's take a look at last week for example. The top-5 going in were Koepka, McIlroy, Kuchar, Schauffele, and Woodland. How did they do relative to the winner (Reed, who came in at #50)? Koepka finished 10 back. McIlroy 4 back. Kuchar and Schauffele both missed the cut entirely. And Woodland finished 13 back.

    It's certainly possible that the top-5 going into the final event could all fail to win the tournament. Maybe not likely, but very possible.

    There is a TON of variability in performances from week to week. If someone goes REALLY low (like -15 or -20), they can win even with the handicapped system. It will be really hard to do so, and starting with a 5- to 10-stroke lead is definitely a big advantage. But it is certainly possible for the #26-30 player to still win. They just need to play well and to have the top-5 play relatively poorly.

    I would certainly bet on the players who are in the top-5 of next week's standings. But it's far from a guarantee, as last week showed.
    There is also a new psychological factor in play here - no one has ever started a tournament with a 2 stroke lead over second place and a 10 stroke lead on the back of the field; similarly no one has ever started Thursday already 10 strokes behind the leader. Does that cause people to play differently at the outset (more conservatively or more aggressively)? Does that mess up their normal routine? Does that impact some players more than others (as some may be better front runners and others are uncomfortable sleeping on a lead)? Should be interesting to see how people approach this (although I am 100% confident they will all say "I'm going to treat this like every other tournament").

    Also, to the point that started this, last year we did not factor in FedEx winnings, but even if we did the winner would have been the same. #2-5 would have shuffled some, but like Top Gun, there are no points for second place here (actually there are technically no points for first either, but that is a different story). This year's format is even more likely to make the winner without FedEx prize dollars the same as winners with FedEx winnings, but I can run them each way at the end and we can have a gross and net flight winner.

  6. #386
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I don't mean to their a wrench in the system, and I'm not even currently entered, so I really have no say, but it seems to me that the crux of the problem is using prize money rather than stroke totals to decide who wins the contest.
    Even in regular tour events, the prize money is heavily distributed toward the top end of the finishers.
    The problem with stroke totals is threefold
    1. we donít all have the same number of players;
    2. Guys who get cut have fewer strokes; and
    3. Not everyone who makes the cut finishes under par.

  7. #387
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The problem with stroke totals is threefold
    1. we donít all have the same number of players;
    2. Guys who get cut have fewer strokes; and
    3. Not everyone who makes the cut finishes under par.
    I also like:

    1) The out-sized value that using dollars puts on winning the event vs strokes. To win our contest you almost always have to pick the winner and also have a good showing from the rest of your team, vs stroke scoring pools where you can win with a handful of top 15 performers as long as you don't have any duds (my next point).
    2) Not having terrible performers derail your team. All players who miss the cut get $0, whether you miss by one stroke or 15
    3) $ matches how the game works - players are there to win, and it doesn't matter if they win by 1 or by 20 strokes. Same with missing the cut - if they miss they are out, regardless of whether they miss by 1 or a ton

    I recognize this is preference as you could easily argue the other side of those points (ie we should be penalized for guys who finish DFL vs just miss the cut) but personally I find our $ based pool to be more enjoyable for the reasons above.

  8. #388
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC

    If the BMW ended right now...

    Patrick Reed and Jim Furyk (both comfortably outside the top-30 coming into the playoffs) would be in the top-5 heading into the Tour Championship. Furyk's name at the top of the leaderboard right now is pretty crazy.

    And Adam Scott would be the guy teeing off at -10 next week.

    Of course, still 3.5 days to play, so there will be a ton more movement of course.

  9. #389
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Top 10 in projected FedEx points after round one of the BMW:

    1. Justin Thomas
    2. Brooks Koepka
    3. Kokrak (Coke rack?)
    4. Patrick Reed (who won last week)
    5. Rory
    6. Patrick Cantlay
    7. Kouchar
    8. Jon Rahm
    9. Xander
    10. Abraham Ancer (viva Mexico!)



    Adam Long is dragging up the rear (T60) but only one shot behind Tiger.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  10. #390
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I just want to make sure everyone saw the post where I switch my picks this week to Jason Kokrak and Adam Hadwin. I mean, they were such obvious, big name choices how could I not pick them?
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  11. #391
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I just want to make sure everyone saw the post where I switch my picks this week to Jason Kokrak and Adam Hadwin. I mean, they were such obvious, big name choices how could I not pick them?
    LOL. I will say that I was having serious thoughts about picking Collin Morikawa, but couldn't decide how to work out the points to make it happen. He looked good yesterday.

  12. #392
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston-Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I just want to make sure everyone saw the post where I switch my picks this week to Jason Kokrak and Adam Hadwin. I mean, they were such obvious, big name choices how could I not pick them?
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    LOL. I will say that I was having serious thoughts about picking Collin Morikawa, but couldn't decide how to work out the points to make it happen. He looked good yesterday.
    May as well add Lucas Glover while you're at it . . . . . .
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  13. #393
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Tiger trying to make a run. Only 2 shots out of position to secure a top-30 and trip to the Tour Championship.

    Some fun happening with the leaderboard in general.

  14. #394
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Furyk's name at the top of the leaderboard right now is pretty crazy.
    Confirmed sighting. I just saw an octopus falling out of a tree on the 17th tee box.
    Carolina delenda est

  15. #395
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Tiger trying to make a run. Only 2 shots out of position to secure a top-30 and trip to the Tour Championship.

    Some fun happening with the leaderboard in general.
    Short-lived run. He finished just 2 under. An uphill battle for the weekend for him.

  16. #396
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Friday shot of the day: Our own Adam Long made an eagle two on #16 with a 175-yard blind approach shot. He finishes at -2 and T49. Adam will need a big weekend to play at East Lake.

    Projected FedEx Cup rankings as of Friday night:

    1. Brooks Koepka
    2. Hideki Matsuyama
    3. Patrick Cantlay
    4. Rory McIlroy
    5. Patrick Reed
    6. Matt Kuchar
    7. Tony Finau
    8. Jon Rahm
    9. Xander Schauffele
    10. Justin Thomas


    By the way, Bryson DeChambeau was treated somewhat roughly by the crowds because of the pace-of-play criticism levied at him by Koepka. Years ago, the USGA handed out "Be Nice to Monty" buttons at the US Open (Winged Foot or Bethpage -- can't remember) because of the potential New York crowd reactions to the truculent Colin Montgomerie.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  17. #397
    Folks are going low out of the gate!

  18. #398
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston-Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Folks are going low out of the gate!
    JT lightiní things up at the moment.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  19. #399
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    JT lightiní things up at the moment.
    Record breaking round from Thomas. Man, any other week I would feel awesome about going to Sunday with guys at 2, T3, 5, T9, T18, and T31. Four guys in the top-9 but I am just running for 3rd place this week thanks to JTís monster round.

  20. #400
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Bye bye to Spieth, Tiger, Phil, and Day.

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