Speculation thread for next year's team.

[simplyluvin]

Did Kira get a waiver to play immediately? Wouldn't he have to sit out a year?

Next year's team hinges on 1) our PG (hopefully Tre) and 2) getting Hurt. Without Hurt, I just don't think we can score enough.

[jipops]

Let's face it -- if someone were to go back and check, you probably predicted the same last offseason. Unless you're willing to make a pie wager (or a wager of some kind), your predictions are just noise. Get some "skin in the game."

As for next season, we don't even know who is going to be on the team yet. A mediocre season is a possibility but so is another contending team depending on how the roster shakes out. A wide range of possibilities at this point.

Nah, I didn’t. But you can go back and see I was down on this team’s offense for quite awhile. I’m sure it comes off as negative, probably was, but a lot ringed true. I thought the point of this thread was to prognosticate and bring noise.

We don’t know who exactly will be on the team but...

A: we’re not bringing back any proven scorers
B: Carey is the only recruit coming in with the reputation that suggests he’ll be able to contribute right away

I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest this team will be mediocre by recent standards. But hey, maybe Ellis turns out to be similar to Coby White, that would really help. I do like what I read about Moore’s ability to defend.

[proelitedota]

I'm pretty optimistic that at least one of Javin, Marques, AOC, Goldwire, or Jack will make a large jump in the offseason and get a starting position even if we land Hurt and keep Tre. We're past due for a returning player to make a big leap.

If we land Hurt and keep Tre, we have 3 primary scorers.
I am counting on AOC to be that player that makes a leap. He certainly has the ability to average 10ppg THIS year if given enough minutes and shots.

IMO:
Vernon: 15ppg
Hurt: 15ppg
Wendell: 10ppg
AOC: 10ppg
Tre: 15ppg

Bench:
Bolden, Javin: 10ppg
Baker, White, Boogie, Goldwire: 10ppg

I think we can easily average over 80ppg.

[Utley]

I am excited if we get the Javin of the last month back. It seems like the game slowed down for him.

If we land Hurt and keep Tre, we have 3 primary scorers.
I am counting on AOC to be that player that makes a leap. He certainly has the ability to average 10ppg THIS year if given enough minutes and shots.

IMO:
Vernon: 15ppg
Hurt: 15ppg
Wendell: 10ppg
AOC: 10ppg
Tre: 15ppg

Bench:
Bolden, Javin: 10ppg
Baker, White, Boogie, Goldwire: 10ppg

I think we can easily average over 80ppg.

[robed deity]

If we land Hurt and keep Tre, we have 3 primary scorers.
I am counting on AOC to be that player that makes a leap. He certainly has the ability to average 10ppg THIS year if given enough minutes and shots.

IMO:
Vernon: 15ppg
Hurt: 15ppg
Wendell: 10ppg
AOC: 10ppg
Tre: 15ppg

Bench:
Bolden, Javin: 10ppg
Baker, White, Boogie, Goldwire: 10ppg

I think we can easily average over 80ppg.

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

[proelitedota]

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

You think one of Hurt or VCJ is going to sit?

If we don't land Hurt, then Javin gets the start at the 4.

[scottdude8]

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

I think one of them will start for a large portion of the season, but I also wouldn’t be “shocked” if they don’t. Carey will in all likelihood start. Putting Javin or Bolden alongside him will put us in a Bagley/Carter situation, but with less outside shooting ability. I’m not saying that won’t happen or that it won’t be our best potential lineup. But I’ve got a suspicion K will have learned from some of the limitations presented by that lineup two seasons ago.

[CDu]

Nah, I didn’t. But you can go back and see I was down on this team’s offense for quite awhile. I’m sure it comes off as negative, probably was, but a lot ringed true. I thought the point of this thread was to prognosticate and bring noise.

We don’t know who exactly will be on the team but...

A: we’re not bringing back any proven scorers
B: Carey is the only recruit coming in with the reputation that suggests he’ll be able to contribute right away

I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest this team will be mediocre by recent standards. But hey, maybe Ellis turns out to be similar to Coby White, that would really help. I do like what I read about Moore’s ability to defend.

Except that we haven’t finished outside the top 10 offensively in a LONG time. And this year was no exception. We didn’t have a stellar offensive game Sunday (it wasn’t bad, just wasn’t great). But prior to that? Elite offensive performances throughout the tournament going back to the FSU game. It doesn’t matter how you are efficient so long as you are efficient.

If Ellis isn’t ready, it is likely to be on the defensive end. He is every bit the scorer, and will likely be a top-30 recruit by the end. He is only #49 on RSCI because one service didn’t rate him. Everywhere else he was in the 25 to 41 range as of the summer.

Moore is a likely day-one contributor, but moreso for defense like Winslow. Not that he is a bad scorer, but it isn’t his bread and butter.

If we get Hurt and a competent PG, I would expect our offense to be elite yet again. Not elite in the same way that this year’s offense was elite, or like last year either. But elite.

If we don’t get Hurt or Watford AND don’t get a decent PG, I would be concerned. But I am hopeful that second scenario remains highly unlikely.

[CDu]

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

If we land Hurt, prepare to be shocked. Because he and Carey are too talented not to start. In that scenario, I would expect one of them to play decent minutes off the bench though.

[ndkjr70]

Huge ifs, but if Tre stays, Duke gets Hurt, and there aren't any surprising departures, I REALLY like that team.

*If* Duke gets Hurt? Dude, have you even been paying attention? Duke ALWAYS gets hurt.

[robed deity]

I think one of them will start for a large portion of the season, but I also wouldn’t be “shocked” if they don’t. Carey will in all likelihood start. Putting Javin or Bolden alongside him will put us in a Bagley/Carter situation, but with less outside shooting ability. I’m not saying that won’t happen or that it won’t be our best potential lineup. But I’ve got a suspicion K will have learned from some of the limitations presented by that lineup two seasons ago.

I probably overstated it with "shocked", but re: Delaurier- it's just hard for me to imagine not starting maybe your best, most experienced defender. But as you said, it could change as the season progresses.

[dukelion]

Also, while technically this year’s team was our worst offensive team since 2012, that is kind of overstating things. We were #7 nationally on offense this year, despite numerous injuries/illnesses to key contributors. That isn’t exactly struggling.

I would not be at all shocked if next year’s squad is worse offensively and defensively than this year’s squad.

I wouldn’t be shocked if next year’s squad is better offensively either. But #7 in the nation - even with the key injuries - is a pretty high bar to top.

I think it underscores how this year's team strength was in it's defense. And the #7 ranking is relative. I think it speaks to a lot of people's misconceptions that this was some type of dominant offensive unit while in reality it was once of the least efficients team's Duke has had in the past decade.

[proelitedota]

Two years in a row we had a top 10 defense despite having freshmen being a majority of our lineup.

2017 we had a top 50 defense despite playing 3 players out of position.

Kentucky usually has a top 10 defense every year.

I don't think the defense this year was a fluke. Coaching staff and programs, like players, improve over time just like players do.

I think we'll have at least a top 20 defense on Kenpom next year.

[ndkjr70]

I think it underscores how this year's team strength was in it's defense. And the #7 ranking is relative. I think it speaks to a lot of people's misconceptions that this was some type of dominant offensive unit while in reality it was once of the least efficients team's Duke has had in the past decade.

What’s Duke ranking when Zion plays? Because the fact that we played without our NPoY or starting PG for nearly 1/3rd if the season and still finished a hair off top-5 tells me this offense was just as dominant as I thought.

[CDu]

I think it underscores how this year's team strength was in it's defense. And the #7 ranking is relative. I think it speaks to a lot of people's misconceptions that this was some type of dominant offensive unit while in reality it was once of the least efficients team's Duke has had in the past decade.

It really doesn’t though. We were still an elite offensive team. Again, it isn’t how, it is how many per possession. And we were easily a top 10 offense nationally. That isn’t a misconception. It is reality. Saying this was the worst offensive Duke team since 2012 is technically true, but MUCH more misleading than saying this was an elite offense. Just because we have had several Uber-elite offenses in recent years doesn’t mean this offense was bad. It was a bad shooting team, but an elite offensive rebounding team (#14 nationally) and an elite shooting team inside the paint (#4 nationally in 2pt %). In aggregate, an elite offensive team.

And again, that is despite us missing the most dominant player in recent memory for six games, which tanked our efficiency numbers. We were top 3-4 when we had Zion.

[proelitedota]

What’s Duke ranking when Zion plays? Because the fact that we played without our NPoY or starting PG for nearly 1/3rd if the season and still finished a hair off top-5 tells me this offense was just as dominant as I thought.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke

Didn't seem there is a correlation between our offense with Zion on or off the court. From eye sight, Zion is great at bailing us out by providing a higher floor, he does not take our offense to the next level.

[Rich]

I know it's the off season for everyone in a week and a day, but having this thread now bums me out. It just feels too early. I want us to still be playing so badly.

I played an April Fool's joke on my family when I left for work this morning. I left a note that Cassius failed a drug test after the game, disqualifying Michigan State, and so Duke was in the Final Four. How I wish that was true!

[devildeac]

Huge ifs, but if Tre stays, Duke gets Hurt, and there aren't any surprising departures, I REALLY like that team.

This is about the only time that scenario would please me...

[jv001]

I know it's the off season for everyone in a week and a day, but having this thread now bums me out. It just feels too early. I want us to still be playing so badly.

I played an April Fool's joke on my family when I left for work this morning. I left a note that Cassius failed a drug test after the game, disqualifying Michigan State, and so Duke was in the Final Four. How I wish that was true!

You mean it's not true?

[dukelion]

It really doesn’t though. We were still an elite offensive team. Again, it isn’t how, it is how many per possession. And we were easily a top 10 offense nationally. That isn’t a misconception. It is reality. Saying this was the worst offensive Duke team since 2012 is technically true, but MUCH more misleading than saying this was an elite offense. Just because we have had several Uber-elite offenses in recent years doesn’t mean this offense was bad. It was a bad shooting team, but an elite offensive rebounding team (#14 nationally) and an elite shooting team inside the paint (#4 nationally in 2pt %). In aggregate, an elite offensive team.

And again, that is despite us missing the most dominant player in recent memory for six games, which tanked our efficiency numbers. We were top 3-4 when we had Zion.

The misconception among many is that it was one of best/most efficient offenses in Duke history due in large part to Zion and RJ. My point is that is simply not true. Yes we were still a very good offense but the reality is that this was one of the best defensive teams in Duke's history which is the main reason we had a shot at competing for a championship this year.

With respect to next year, I think we can have a similar offensive rating but the defensive rating will be almost impossible to replicate without reinforcements.