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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BLPOG View Post
    0.1%

    That's 1/1000.

    Expansion to 64 teams was in 1985.

    34 tournaments times 4 sixteen- versus one-seed matchups is 136.

    1/136 ~= 0.735%

    So, going by the historical record and seeding alone, your estimate is probably off by several hundred times.

    Of course there are reasons to think such an upset is more or less likely for a given team.

    My point is just that 1/1000 implies a very high degree of certainty. The odds of multiple serious injuries might well exceed that. Wouldn't that have an impact on the game?
    Minor quibble, but .735% is only roughly 7 times greater than 0.1%. Not “several hundred times.”

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    FWIW, I am wearing a soft boot at the house for precautionary reasons.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    I bet they have a sense of humor in North Dakota, too.

    Although I've never met any of the 163,924 people from there.
    Just for the record, North Dakota is beautiful and both of the Dakotas are criminally underrated. The wind, however, is no laughing matter.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Just for the record, North Dakota is beautiful and both of the Dakotas are criminally underrated. The wind, however, is no laughing matter.
    Wind. Winter.

    Rough!

    -jk
       

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Just for the record, North Dakota is beautiful and both of the Dakotas are criminally underrated. The wind, however, is no laughing matter.
    I know quite a few North Dakotans who are quite successful in the world at large. All claim North Dakota as their home state but live elsewhere.

    Some of them spend time in the summer at Detroit Lakes -- Minnesota, not the Dakotas (nor Michigan), but less than an hour east of Fargo.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Maggie Valley, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BisonFan View Post
    This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

    As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline
    Great story. Didn't know that tidbit, though watched the Bison last night at Buffalo Wild Wings (was the only 1 watching the game in the room I was in), and watched them win the conference tourney against Omaha week before last.

    As posted elsewhere on other threads, my daughter is in her 2nd year of grad school there, and I've been to Fargo twice to see her, so I can vouch for the folks there being community oriented, down to earth, good folks. No surprise at all to me the coach and folks there would get behind a great cause. For me personally, my first Bison sporting event live was the FCS Championship in Fargo this year where they won title #7. As I am sure you (BisonFan) can attest, the NDSU fans, at least the football ones, are nuts. Confident they will take it for what it is worth - a chance, albeit very slim, to 'shock the world', and as BandAlum posted elsewhere, an opportunity to tell their kids and grandkids they played against, and maybe scored on, Zion.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by Green Wave Dukie View Post
    Great story. Didn't know that tidbit, though watched the Bison last night at Buffalo Wild Wings (was the only 1 watching the game in the room I was in), and watched them win the conference tourney against Omaha week before last.

    As posted elsewhere on other threads, my daughter is in her 2nd year of grad school there, and I've been to Fargo twice to see her, so I can vouch for the folks there being community oriented, down to earth, good folks. No surprise at all to me the coach and folks there would get behind a great cause. For me personally, my first Bison sporting event live was the FCS Championship in Fargo this year where they won title #7. As I am sure you (BisonFan) can attest, the NDSU fans, at least the football ones, are nuts. Confident they will take it for what it is worth - a chance, albeit very slim, to 'shock the world', and as BandAlum posted elsewhere, an opportunity to tell their kids and grandkids they played against, and maybe scored on, Zion.
    Good beer in Fargo/Moorhead, too. And we have a nice lil thread that discusses such things ....
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Good idea

    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    FWIW, I am wearing a soft boot at the house for precautionary reasons.
    I may wear bubble wrap until the Final Four.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by BLPOG View Post
    1/136 ~= 0.735%

    So, going by the historical record and seeding alone, your estimate is probably off by several hundred times.
    In addition to the math error pointed out above, it would take at least five hundred games to reliably distinguish a 1/25 event from a 1/100 event. It might take tens of thousands to distinguish a 1/100 event from a 1/1000 event. After 136 games we have very little information about how frequently a 16-over-1 upset is likely to occur.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    The badlands and Black Hills of SD are great. Have not had the chance to visit ND yet but look forward to it.

    And, because, this is essentially great:

    https://youtu.be/QxgmskQgb9U

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    North Dakota
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    I bet they have a sense of humor in North Dakota, too.

    Although I've never met any of the 163,924 people from there.
    We certainly do. I’ve lived in ND all my life. Went to college at the University of ND (UND) rather than NDSU. It was during my time at UND in the late 80s that I became a Duke fan.

    I was in Florida with my adult kids on vacation last week and we were able to enjoy all 3 ACC tourney games together. I indoctrinated my children well as they are also crazy Duke fans. One is a NDSU grad.

    Go Duke!

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Minor quibble, but .735% is only roughly 7 times greater than 0.1%. Not “several hundred times.”
    Wow, I'm even more tired than I thought. Thank you for correcting that bizarre error on my part.
       

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    ... After 136 games we have very little information about how frequently a 16-over-1 upset is likely to occur.
    Isn't it 1 every 136 times? I once read a discussion about Laura Bush having the accident where she hit the car driven by someone she dated in high school, and the young man died. Someone posited in the comments, "hitting your boyfriend and he dies -- what are the odds?" And someone replied, "well, for her, 1 out of 1."

    Phil Steele analyzed CFB upsets at certain betting line differentials. Wouldn't the same work, roughly, for various 16 v 1 match-ups?

    Last year, per the SRS, Virginia (#5) ended up 24 points better than #183 UMBC: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...8-ratings.html

    So, how often has a 24-point underdog won a CBB game outright? [Not sure what the spread in SRS was pre-game.]

    Right now, per the SRS, Duke (#1) is 32 points better than #214 NDSU: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...9-ratings.html

    How many times has a 32-point CBB hoops underdog won outright?

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Isn't it 1 every 136 times? I once read a discussion about Laura Bush having the accident where she hit the car driven by someone she dated in high school, and the young man died. Someone posited in the comments, "hitting your boyfriend and he dies -- what are the odds?" And someone replied, "well, for her, 1 out of 1."

    Phil Steele analyzed CFB upsets at certain betting line differentials. Wouldn't the same work, roughly, for various 16 v 1 match-ups?

    Last year, per the SRS, Virginia (#5) ended up 24 points better than #183 UMBC: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...8-ratings.html

    So, how often has a 24-point underdog won a CBB game outright? [Not sure what the spread in SRS was pre-game.]

    Right now, per the SRS, Duke (#1) is 32 points better than #214 NDSU: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...9-ratings.html

    How many times has a 32-point CBB hoops underdog won outright?
    Odds are 50/50. It either will, or it won’t.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Isn't it 1 every 136 times? I once read a discussion about Laura Bush having the accident where she hit the car driven by someone she dated in high school, and the young man died. Someone posited in the comments, "hitting your boyfriend and he dies -- what are the odds?" And someone replied, "well, for her, 1 out of 1."

    Phil Steele analyzed CFB upsets at certain betting line differentials. Wouldn't the same work, roughly, for various 16 v 1 match-ups?

    Last year, per the SRS, Virginia (#5) ended up 24 points better than #183 UMBC: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...8-ratings.html

    So, how often has a 24-point underdog won a CBB game outright? [Not sure what the spread in SRS was pre-game.]

    Right now, per the SRS, Duke (#1) is 32 points better than #214 NDSU: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...9-ratings.html

    How many times has a 32-point CBB hoops underdog won outright?
    No, with rare outcomes, each successful event is an outlier. Thus, you need a TON of observations to feel confident in your estimate of a rare outcome. For example, 1 in a million means once in one million trials. It doesn’t mean you fail 999,999 times before succeeding. That one success could happen at any time. If you only take 300 observations but get lucky and that once in a million happens, you would be overestimating the probability to say it is 1 in 300.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    I bet they have a sense of humor in North Dakota, too.

    Although I've never met any of the 163,924 people from there.
    I, too, can attest that they do. Fargo’s municipal slogan is, “North of Normal.” And they recognize that many people visit just to collect their 50th state. If that’s why you’re there, the visitor’s center in Fargo will give you a t-shirt that says, “I saved the best for last.”

    I found both those things hilariously self-deprecating when we visited last summer (for state #49, so no t-shirt for me).
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I know quite a few North Dakotans who are quite successful in the world at large. All claim North Dakota as their home state but live elsewhere.

    Some of them spend time in the summer at Detroit Lakes -- Minnesota, not the Dakotas (nor Michigan), but less than an hour east of Fargo.
    Do North Dakotans winter in South Dakota?

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    I, too, can attest that they do. Fargo’s municipal slogan is, “North of Normal.” And they recognize that many people visit just to collect their 50th state. If that’s why you’re there, the visitor’s center in Fargo will give you a t-shirt that says, “I saved the best for last.”

    I found both those things hilariously self-deprecating when we visited last summer (for state #49, so no t-shirt for me).
    Well...

    ND is the only state I haven’t driven in. (I was running late back in ‘86, Chicago to Seattle, and didn’t have time to take the northern detour.)

    I’ll get there one day!

    -jk
       

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    In addition to the math error pointed out above, it would take at least five hundred games to reliably distinguish a 1/25 event from a 1/100 event. It might take tens of thousands to distinguish a 1/100 event from a 1/1000 event. After 136 games we have very little information about how frequently a 16-over-1 upset is likely to occur.
    I’m pretty sure it’s not very often.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    I, too, can attest that they do. Fargo’s municipal slogan is, “North of Normal.” And they recognize that many people visit just to collect their 50th state. If that’s why you’re there, the visitor’s center in Fargo will give you a t-shirt that says, “I saved the best for last.”

    I found both those things hilariously self-deprecating when we visited last summer (for state #49, so no t-shirt for me).
    Indeed, it was my Dad’s 50th state. He had a party during which he placed he shot glass in the empty spot in the shelving made to fit 50 shot glasses.

    I have a framed picture of the event.

    Maybe someday I will get to 50. I am still at 37.

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