MBB: Duke v NDSU (7:10, Fri Mar 22, CBS) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CDu]

North Dakota St did what they were supposed to do in beating a truly awful NC Central team (KenPom #303) to make it to the real bracket. Congrats to them. Now they get Duke as a reward. Maybe that is punishment for their coach wearing tee shirts on the sidelines.

The Bison are not a great team either: 19-15, KenPom #202. They lost to Gonzaga by 42 and to Iowa State by 22. They play really slowly (#313 in pace) and aren't terribly good on either end of the floor (#117 offense, #294 defense). They are certainly better at offense than defense though. On offense, they slow down the tempo. This allows them to avoid turnovers (#22 nationally) and in theory get good shots. They are a pretty good shooting team (#53 in 3pt shooting, #80 in 2pt shooting) for a low major. But they are an atrocious offensive rebounding team (#345) and don't draw a lot of fouls (#199). They take more 3s per possession than just about anyone (#12). Defensively, they are really bad at everything except fouling (#25) and defensive rebounding (#75). Everywhere else they are worse than #270. So we should be able to score on them. And I'm not convinced that they'll be able to keep us off the glass, either.

Centers: Rocky Kreuser (6'10", 245lb sophomore) is about the only legitimate size the Bison have. Kreuser is a little bit reminiscent of Ryan Kelly in style. He's a stretch 5 who doesn't rebound a ton (not awful but not great). Kreuser can block shots, but his value is really as a floor spreader on offense. He's not overly athletic, and not overly strong. But he's positionally aware and can shoot it if left open (36.1% on 3s). The only other size the Bison play is Deng Geu (6'8", 215lb redshirt junior). Geu is a terrific rebounder, especially on the defensive end. He's long and lean and a very capable jumpshooter, taking about 45% of his shots on jumpers from 2 or 3. He shoots 35.7% from 3 and 74.7% from the line. So, like Kreuser, he's a decent floor spacer for a big. North Dakota State essentially rotates these two guys at the 5 spot and plays a really small team otherwise.

Forwards: Tyson Ward (6'6", 190lb junior) is the team's primary PF option. He's an undersized 4 man, who can step out and hit the occasional 3 (32.9%) but is much happy playing in the paint. He's not overly explosive, but he's tough and crafty in getting to the rim. Still, he's also not used to facing someone like Zion. So it will be interesting to see how well he can create his own shot against a bigger and better athlete. Barrett, Reddish, and White all also have the size to handle Ward on switches, and DeLaurier should be quick enough to stay in front of him. So we should have the players to make his life tough. Aside from Ward, the Bison don't really play any other forwards or bigs.

Wings: Jared Samuelson (6'3", 185lb junior) and Sam Griesel (6'6", 210lb freshman) are the starters. Samuelson is a shooter, plain and simple. He was a former walkon who has become one of the team's stars thanks to hard work. Samuelson basically lives on the 3pt line, with over 85% of his FG attempts being from 3. He's a 46.5% 3pt shooter, so he absolutely cannot be left open. He's not very athletic, and he won't do much off the dribble. But if you leave him, he'll make you pay. I'd expect Reddish and Goldwire to be assigned to him like a shadow. Griesel is a bit bigger and more dynamic, capable of getting to the rim and finishing. He's fairly athletic, but he's not a great shooter (25% from 3; 56% from FT line). Off the bench, the sixth man is Tyree Eady (6'5", 215lb freshman). Eady is a strong kid with not overwhelming athleticism. He's not a great ballhandler, doing most of his work offensively as a catch and shoot 3pt threat. He's a terrific 3pt shooter (41.9%) who can finish in traffic off assists but isn't great at getting there on his own. Chris Quayle (6'5", 200lb redshirt junior JuCo transfer) is the next option there, although his playing time comes and goes. Quayle is just a decent shooter (~35% career 3pt shooter) and energy role player when he's in there. He does a little of everything, but nothing particularly well. Lastly is Jordan Horn (6'2", 195lb sophomore transfer from Siena). Horn is a combo guard with good ballhandling skills for a SG but not really the passing game of a PG. He's not a great shooter (a bit over 30% for his career), but not awful either. Horn will play sparingly unless foul trouble sets in.

Guards: Vinnie Shahid (5'11", 190lb junior JuCo transfer) runs the offense and his the team's leader and captain despite being a first-year player. Shahid was a 2nd Team All-American in JuCo last year, and he's their best player. Shahid's game is somewhat reminiscent of Quinn Cook's. He's a terrific ballhandler, fearless off the dribble, and a capable 3pt shooter (36.3%). Less of a pure PG than a scoring lead guard, he's not overly explosive/athletic but crafty and very strong. And he's a highly confident kid who hits his free throws (84.6%). Cameron Hunter (6'3", 185lb sophomore) is the other primary ballhandler on the team. Hunter was a starter last year, but moved to the bench this year. He's pretty athletic and has good size for a PG, but plays as much off the ball as on it this year with Shahid in town. Hunter is not afraid to attack the basket and is capable of getting and-1 dunks/layups. But his game is predominantly from 3 point range, where he shoots 41.2%. So, like Samuelson and Eady above, leaving Hunter open is a really bad idea. He's not great off the dribble, but is somewhat capable.

This is a game we should win, and should win comfortably. North Dakota State doesn't have the size or the athleticism to compete with us. They can certainly shoot, but really only have one guy who is capable of creating offense. If we are focused, we should be able to limit them offensively, and we should have no trouble scoring on the other end. Here's hoping the team comes out focused and gets early separation to take the game pressure off.

[Phredd3]

I'm wondering if in this particular game it makes sense to play Goldwire and the Four Freshmen (sounds like a band name) a fair amount of the time, rather than Javin. Their main offensive weapons are at the three-point line, and we'll need less rim protection and more agility than normal on defense (and besides, we have Zion and RJ, who can do a pretty good job at rim protection on their own). Since NDSU is not good defensively, Goldwire's lack of offense is also likely to be less of a problem than it might otherwise be.

Mind you, I think we'll win either way, and I'm guessing Javin will start if only as a coaching show of support, but I'm just wondering if we should expect more of the quicker, smaller lineup as we move into this particular game.

[BisonFan]

North Dakota St did what they were supposed to do in beating a truly awful NC Central team (KenPom #303) to make it to the real bracket. Congrats to them. Now they get Duke as a reward. Maybe that is punishment for their coach wearing tee shirts on the sidelines.

The Bison are not a great team either: 19-15, KenPom #202. They lost to Gonzaga by 42 and to Iowa State by 22. They play really slowly (#313 in pace) and aren't terribly good on either end of the floor (#117 offense, #294 defense). They are certainly better at offense than defense though. On offense, they slow down the tempo. This allows them to avoid turnovers (#22 nationally) and in theory get good shots. They are a pretty good shooting team (#53 in 3pt shooting, #80 in 2pt shooting) for a low major. But they are an atrocious offensive rebounding team (#345) and don't draw a lot of fouls (#199). They take more 3s per possession than just about anyone (#12). Defensively, they are really bad at everything except fouling (#25) and defensive rebounding (#75). Everywhere else they are worse than #270. So we should be able to score on them. And I'm not convinced that they'll be able to keep us off the glass, either.

Centers: Rocky Kreuser (6'10", 245lb sophomore) is about the only legitimate size the Bison have. Kreuser is a little bit reminiscent of Ryan Kelly in style. He's a stretch 5 who doesn't rebound a ton (not awful but not great). Kreuser can block shots, but his value is really as a floor spreader on offense. He's not overly athletic, and not overly strong. But he's positionally aware and can shoot it if left open (36.1% on 3s). The only other size the Bison play is Deng Geu (6'8", 215lb redshirt junior). Geu is a terrific rebounder, especially on the defensive end. He's long and lean and a very capable jumpshooter, taking about 45% of his shots on jumpers from 2 or 3. He shoots 35.7% from 3 and 74.7% from the line. So, like Kreuser, he's a decent floor spacer for a big. North Dakota State essentially rotates these two guys at the 5 spot and plays a really small team otherwise.

Forwards: Tyson Ward (6'6", 190lb junior) is the team's primary PF option. He's an undersized 4 man, who can step out and hit the occasional 3 (32.9%) but is much happy playing in the paint. He's not overly explosive, but he's tough and crafty in getting to the rim. Still, he's also not used to facing someone like Zion. So it will be interesting to see how well he can create his own shot against a bigger and better athlete. Barrett, Reddish, and White all also have the size to handle Ward on switches, and DeLaurier should be quick enough to stay in front of him. So we should have the players to make his life tough. Aside from Ward, the Bison don't really play any other forwards or bigs.

Wings: Jared Samuelson (6'3", 185lb junior) and Sam Griesel (6'6", 210lb freshman) are the starters. Samuelson is a shooter, plain and simple. He was a former walkon who has become one of the team's stars thanks to hard work. Samuelson basically lives on the 3pt line, with over 85% of his FG attempts being from 3. He's a 46.5% 3pt shooter, so he absolutely cannot be left open. He's not very athletic, and he won't do much off the dribble. But if you leave him, he'll make you pay. I'd expect Reddish and Goldwire to be assigned to him like a shadow. Griesel is a bit bigger and more dynamic, capable of getting to the rim and finishing. He's fairly athletic, but he's not a great shooter (25% from 3; 56% from FT line). Off the bench, the sixth man is Tyree Eady (6'5", 215lb freshman). Eady is a strong kid with not overwhelming athleticism. He's not a great ballhandler, doing most of his work offensively as a catch and shoot 3pt threat. He's a terrific 3pt shooter (41.9%) who can finish in traffic off assists but isn't great at getting there on his own. Chris Quayle (6'5", 200lb redshirt junior JuCo transfer) is the next option there, although his playing time comes and goes. Quayle is just a decent shooter (~35% career 3pt shooter) and energy role player when he's in there. He does a little of everything, but nothing particularly well. Lastly is Jordan Horn (6'2", 195lb sophomore transfer from Siena). Horn is a combo guard with good ballhandling skills for a SG but not really the passing game of a PG. He's not a great shooter (a bit over 30% for his career), but not awful either. Horn will play sparingly unless foul trouble sets in.

Guards: Vinnie Shahid (5'11", 190lb junior JuCo transfer) runs the offense and his the team's leader and captain despite being a first-year player. Shahid was a 2nd Team All-American in JuCo last year, and he's their best player. Shahid's game is somewhat reminiscent of Quinn Cook's. He's a terrific ballhandler, fearless off the dribble, and a capable 3pt shooter (36.3%). Less of a pure PG than a scoring lead guard, he's not overly explosive/athletic but crafty and very strong. And he's a highly confident kid who hits his free throws (84.6%). Cameron Hunter (6'3", 185lb sophomore) is the other primary ballhandler on the team. Hunter was a starter last year, but moved to the bench this year. He's pretty athletic and has good size for a PG, but plays as much off the ball as on it this year with Shahid in town. Hunter is not afraid to attack the basket and is capable of getting and-1 dunks/layups. But his game is predominantly from 3 point range, where he shoots 41.2%. So, like Samuelson and Eady above, leaving Hunter open is a really bad idea. He's not great off the dribble, but is somewhat capable.

This is a game we should win, and should win comfortably. North Dakota State doesn't have the size or the athleticism to compete with us. They can certainly shoot, but really only have one guy who is capable of creating offense. If we are focused, we should be able to limit them offensively, and we should have no trouble scoring on the other end. Here's hoping the team comes out focused and gets early separation to take the game pressure off.

This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

[devildeac]

This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

Thanks for visiting and especially for the inside info on the t-shirt. Great story.

[BandAlum83]

I think I heard yesterday that the NDSU coach is the youngest/fastest to get to 100 wins, or will be? That's pretty impressive. He played for the team as well and was an all-conference player.

Sounds like he has a bright future. How long will NDSU be able to keep him?

ETA: Looking at Wikipedia, not sure what I heard. He is 40 years old and his record is 86-62 in his 5th year.

and here is the story on the T-shirt:

https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

[Indoor66]

A wonderful gesture with the tee shirt. Kudos to your coach and best wishes to the younger. Cancer of horrible.

[SavDukeGrad]

This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

Welcome to the board! We always enjoy hearing the perspective of our opponents.

That’s a neat story about your coach’s shirt.

[MChambers]

This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

Thanks for posting here and explaining the t-shirt!

[BisonFan]

I think I heard yesterday that the NDSU coach is the youngest/fastest to get to 100 wins, or will be? That's pretty impressive. He played for the team as well and was an all-conference player.

Sounds like he has a bright future. How long will NDSU be able to keep him?

ETA: Looking at Wikipedia, not sure what I heard. He is 40 years old and his record is 86-62 in his 5th year.

and here is the story on the T-shirt:

https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

Coach Richman is at 96-66 and will be the youngest to 100 wins for us hopefully. He didn't play for NDSU though, he played for a 2 year school about 20 minutes away in his home town of Whapeton, ND. To be honest he was kind of on the hot seat until this years team turned it around. The last 2 years were not very good after going to the dance his first year as HC. I'm guessing he will get an extension after this season. Not sure he's done enough to attract a better offer just yet.

[tecumseh]

A wonderful gesture with the tee shirt. Kudos to your coach and best wishes to the younger. Cancer of horrible.

Some cancer is not too bad but gliomas are cancers that often occur in the most sensitive places such that you cannot surgically respect them and they are usually resistant to chemo and radiation. This kid seems to be doing poorly sadly and had little chance to survive.

[SavDukeGrad]

DukeMBB has an Instagram live video up from Duke’s open practice this afternoon. Lots of fans/spectators there!

ETA: Press row looks full. Lower level looks about 50% full on the sides, less in the end zones. That’s a lot of people for a practice!

[OldPhiKap]

This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

Thanks for the great post, BisonFan. Great story about the T-shirt, glad you shared it.

I enjoyed your game last night and your team plays well together. Seem like a great group of kids best I can tell.

I assume you may have just dropped by for the game, but please feel free to come talk hoops any time!

[CDu]

This is a pretty fair breakdown of our team. It's a young team that's come a long ways this season. They have played their best BB the last month or so. Trust me we have no delusions of beating Duke or even keeping it close. Just hoping for a decent showing and an experience our guys will never forget.

As to your shot at our coaches atire, it's a T-shirt that supports a local Fargo kid's fight against cancer. He also happens to be a neighbor to our head coach and a school mate and close friend to one of his daughters. He has worn it to every game so I'd expect to see it again Friday night. Hope it doesn't offend too many. https://971theticket.radio.com/artic...shirt-sideline

Thanks for the input! Glad to hear that there is a (very) good reason for the t-shirt. That is a wonderful story and thanks for sharing. Hope my lighthearted joke didn’t offend.

[BandAlum83]

Thanks for the input! Glad to hear that there is a (very) good reason for the t-shirt. That is a wonderful story and thanks for sharing. Hope my lighthearted joke didn’t offend.

I bet they have a sense of humor in North Dakota, too.

Although I've never met any of the 163,924 people from there.

[TruBlu]

DukeMBB has an Instagram live video up from Duke’s open practice this afternoon. Lots of fans/spectators there!

ETA: Press row looks full. Lower level looks about 50% full on the sides, less in the end zones. That’s a lot of people for a practice!

Any Bolden sightings in the open practice?

[weezie]

... Maybe that is punishment for their coach wearing tee shirts on the sidelines...

Pardon me but isn't that rather a lack of sideline decorum?

Yikes, I add my best wishes to the youngster and the cancer battle. Just saw that.

[weezie]

Any Bolden sightings in the open practice?

Chronicle reporting that Jack on injury watch for the hamstring.

[SavDukeGrad]

Any Bolden sightings in the open practice?

Yes. It looks like Bolden practiced in a knee brace.

[SavDukeGrad]

I finally watched the entire video from the open practice. Bolden practiced in a knee brace but appeared to have no practice limitations.

Jack White participated in shooting drills, which seems like good news to me. But he didn’t participate in the full court drills.

Also, the crowd cheered whenever Duke scored in the full court drills. Especially for Zion’s dunks!

[BLPOG]

Overconfidence isn't the challenge. Just plain-old "missing the game" is their biggest challenge.

This is the overall 1 seed vs a bad 16 seed. Yes- last year, UVa got rocked. But do we really think there is a >0.1% chance of happening? Cus I don't.

Duke should be overly confident.

The only thing I'm looking forward to in this game is Baker, White, Goldwire, and Vrank getting some quality minutes.

0.1%

That's 1/1000.

Expansion to 64 teams was in 1985.

34 tournaments times 4 sixteen- versus one-seed matchups is 136.

1/136 ~= 0.735%

So, going by the historical record and seeding alone, your estimate is probably off by several hundred times.

Of course there are reasons to think such an upset is more or less likely for a given team.

My point is just that 1/1000 implies a very high degree of certainty. The odds of multiple serious injuries might well exceed that. Wouldn't that have an impact on the game?