What're your biggest upset picks (that you'll go on the record with)?

[duke2x]

Sunday seems like another chalk day. Just to advance the discussion, I'll say IA over TN. It's only 10 points on Pomeroy, but I know it could as bad as FSU-Murray St in TN's favor.

Go Huskies.

[BigZ]

Yeah if Liberty or UC Irvine don’t win there will be no Cinderella this year. I don’t think Ohio St or Oregon count as Cinderella

[Troublemaker]

Yeah if Liberty or UC Irvine don’t win there will be no Cinderella this year. I don’t think Ohio St or Oregon count as Cinderella

Yeah, I mean, Oregon was preseason top-15.

I would also probably count Buffalo as Cinderella. Even though everyone now knows Buffalo is good -- they're a 6 seed, afterall -- they're still a small program, they would still have to upset TTU to make the Sweet 16, and nobody knew they were good (at least this good) in the preseason.

Rooting hard for Liberty to take out VaTech. Revenge is overrated. I'd prefer an easier (though no guaranteed win) Sweet 16 game before having to run the 3-game gauntlet of 1. MSU (#4 kenpom), 2. Gonzaga (#2 kenpom), 3. UVA (#1 kenpom).

Of course, Duke has to take care of business against UCF before worrying about any of that.

[kmspeaks]

I don't have any numbers to back this up, but when filling out my bracket this year it felt like the group at the top with the potential to win it all was a little bit bigger than normal but the separation between them and the rest of the pack was also a little larger than normal. I picked some 5/12 and 6/11 "upsets" but the top 16 just seem like they're too good this year for a double digit seed to break through to the EE or FF.

[richardjackson199]

I don't have any numbers to back this up, but when filling out my bracket this year it felt like the group at the top with the potential to win it all was a little bit bigger than normal but the separation between them and the rest of the pack was also a little larger than normal. I picked some 5/12 and 6/11 "upsets" but the top 16 just seem like they're too good this year for a double digit seed to break through to the EE or FF.

And there is an argument that Auburn deserved a 4 seed based on what they did to Tenn and winning SEC tourney. Counting them as one of top 16 teams (or not) is resulting in a weird tourney so far. Many games have been competitive and fun. But also lots of blowouts, Waters shot was closest thing to only buzzer beater, and highly unusual amount of chalk... so far.

[Acymetric]

And there is an argument that Auburn deserved a 4 seed based on what they did to Tenn and winning SEC tourney. Counting them as one of top 16 teams (or not) is resulting in a weird tourney so far. Many games have been competitive and fun. But also lots of blowouts, Waters shot was closest thing to only buzzer beater, and highly unusual amount of chalk... so far.

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

Also feels like fewer close games each day. Let's not break that flow today please.

[sagegrouse]

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

As a fan of the #1 team, "chalk" is fine with me.

[richardjackson199]

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

The first 2 days of the tourney, there were technically plenty of upsets, as usual. I won't even count 9 over 8 upsets which we all know aren't really upsets. On average, 4 or 5 of the teams seeded 5 through 7 lose in the first round. This year it was 7.

But the 1-4 seeds were not losing, and the top 15 teams in the country all won. Even the Kansas State, 4 seed that lost to UC-Irvine was not a surprise to any expert. They all called that one with K State missing a key injured player and UC-Irvine being a very good, hot team for a 13 seed.

Then by the round of 32, the relative lack of top 4 upsets coupled with the volume of 10/11/12 seeds still alive suggested that 2/3/4 seeds would, collectively, have an easier path to the second weekend.

But this many 1-4 seeds still alive is unusual. If it continues today it will be unprecedented.

Go Duke and Go Huskies!

[Wander]

As a fan of the #1 team, "chalk" is fine with me.

I think chalkiness hurts our chances, not helps. We're now guaranteed to play a 2 or 3 seed in the Elite 8 if we get there, and if Buffalo wins today, we'll be guaranteed to play a top 4 seed in the semi-final if we get there. I'm not scared of anyone as long as Zion is healthy, but I'd rather get to the Final Four and see Belmont or Nevada or whatever as our opponent.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think chalkiness hurts our chances, not helps. We're now guaranteed to play a 2 or 3 seed in the Elite 8 if we get there, and if Buffalo wins today, we'll be guaranteed to play a top 4 seed in the semi-final if we get there. I'm not scared of anyone as long as Zion is healthy, but I'd rather get to the Final Four and see Belmont or Nevada or whatever as our opponent.

I assume the poster intended the the longer chalk holds, the longer we survive as the overall number one.

[Acymetric]

The first 2 days of the tourney, there were technically plenty of upsets, as usual. I won't even count 9 over 8 upsets which we all know aren't really upsets. On average, 4 or 5 of the teams seeded 5 through 7 lose in the first round. This year it was 7.

But the 1-4 seeds were not losing, and the top 15 teams in the country all won. Even the Kansas State, 4 seed that lost to UC-Irvine was not a surprise to any expert. They all called that one with K State missing a key injured player and UC-Irvine being a very good, hot team for a 13 seed.

Then by the round of 32, the relative lack of top 4 upsets coupled with the volume of 10/11/12 seeds still alive suggested that 2/3/4 seeds would, collectively, have an easier path to the second weekend.

But this many 1-4 seeds still alive is unusual. If it continues today it will be unprecedented.

Go Duke and Go Huskies!

Have we reached unprecedented yet or does Houston need to pull it out?