What're your biggest upset picks (that you'll go on the record with)?

[gocanes0506]

I have 2 double digits making the S16: Oregon and Liberty

[fisheyes]

Yale!
Took them for 2 wins!

[wsb3]

I have 2 double digits making the S16: Oregon and Liberty

I have a Liberty grad in my small group that sure hopes you are right.

[TruBlu]

My biggest upset is that I'm upset because I picked unc to win 2 games. (Losing to Auburn)

[wavedukefan70s]

St Mary's to the elite 8

[FerryFor50]

Oregon as a 12-seed was actually favored over 5-seed Wisconsin for a few hours after the bracket came out. I think they're back to a 1.5 pt underdog now. Not sure who I'd pick in that matchup, as I think the PAC is terrible, but intriguing that the spread in a 5-12 matchup is almost a pick 'em.

With Bol Bol, I'd totally take Oregon.

Without? Oregon is just a less good Wisconsin. They both play at about the same pace (64.1 adjusted tempo for Oregon, 63.6 for Wisconsin) but Wisconsin is better on offense and defense than Oregon.

[Wander]

Yale over LSU is the popular upset pick that confuses me. I just don't get it...I guess because the coach is out?

I also have Yale over LSU. A few reasons:

1. Coaching drama that you mentioned
2. Kenpom has LSU at 18, implying they're overseeded as a 3
3. They've got a bad defense in the analytics, which seems common among big first-round upset victims (like our 2012 and 2014 teams)
4. Yale has two wins over power conference teams. Even through those two teams are mediocre and awful, I think it still mentally counts for something.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yale!
Took them for 2 wins!

So tempted to do that as well. I don't like LSU in the slightest. In the tournament, you need a coach. I don't care who the assistants are, but the whole school - and I assume the team - are still behind Will Wade.

[FerryFor50]

I also have Yale over LSU. A few reasons:

1. Coaching drama that you mentioned
2. Kenpom has LSU at 18, implying they're overseeded as a 3
3. They've got a bad defense in the analytics, which seems common among big first-round upset victims (like our 2012 and 2014 teams)
4. Yale has two wins over power conference teams. Even through those two teams are mediocre and awful, I think it still mentally counts for something.

I considered Yale, but ultimately went with LSU due to talent and the fact that the power conference wins were not impressive.

[Bob Green]

1. My biggest predicted upset is Wofford over Kentucky (2nd Rd). That's a 7 seed over a 2 seed.

2. In Round 1, I'll take the winner of the Belmont/Temple play-in game to beat Maryland. That's an 11 seed over a 6 seed.

3. In the Sweet 16, #4 FSU over #1 Gonzaga. Unfortunately for FSU, they will lose to Michigan in the Elite 8 for the second consecutive season.

[duke2x]

Because weed is legal in Oregon?

It's not a state crime in Washington either. It is a state crime in Arizona and Utah.

Oregon does have excellent chemistry right now but not the talent. I can see Oregon making the Sweet 16 over the Irvine Anteaters.

[wilson]

Truthfully I know little about SLU but I don't think this is a bad pick..SLU over VT

Undersized, but with some solid talent in the backcourt. Not a good shooting team. Pretty good defensive efficiency.

[peterjswift]

I have inadvertently also gone with the "popular" upset picks, though I picked them mostly in isolation:

Yale over LSU (seriously, primarily due to coaching drama - I feel like the regular season is enough of a grind to handle disruption with minimal impact...but the tournament has a different schedule, feel, etc - and stability is probably really helpful).

St. Mary's over Nova. Literally just because of the Gonzaga win and my love for Jay Wright and his team (by not picking them, I'm guaranteeing they will win and blow up my bracket - you're welcome Nova fans!).

Ohio St over Iowa St - as much as I hate that team from ohio, I feel like they've gone up against really tough competition all season, more so than the big 12.

11 seed over UMD - obvious reasons.

But, given my performance in previous years, as well as my performance in the degenerates gambling thread, I think it is clear that my picks are right less than 50% of the time...

[Troublemaker]

Remember, your upset foresight can also be rewarded with fake money!

Join the DBR NCAA Tournament Degenerate Gambling Contest here: https://forums.dukebasketballreport...16#post1143416

Keep in mind that with point spreads, you actually even have margin of error with your Yales, St Mary's, Oregons, what-have-you upset picks. They just need to cover for you to win fake money; they don't have to win outright.

[DU82]

Iona.

[Kedsy]

I've been tracking my interpretation of the "Wisconsin Effect" since 2010. What I look for is teams, seeded 7 or better, in the bottom 50 in tempo and bottom 150 in NCSOS. In the past nine tournaments (as long as I've been tracking), there have been 21 such teams and 16 of them (more than 76%) have lost to teams seeded three seeds or more worse than them (e.g., 7 losing to 10; 1 losing to 4, etc.). Of the five such teams that didn't lose, two of them beat double-digit seeds by just one point (so as close to losing as possible without actually doing it).

This year there are four teams that meet the criteria: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Virginia. If the odds hold true (and I know it's just 21 games but it's a pretty powerful percentage), three of those four teams will be upset by teams seeded three or more below them. That would mean, e.g., St. Louis over Virginia Tech; Iowa over Cincinnati; Florida or Nevada over Michigan (or Montana, I suppose); Wisconsin or Kansas State over Virginia (or I guess Ole Miss/Oklahoma would certainly meet the criteria).

Maybe it's real, maybe it isn't, but the results have been astounding me for years.

I also have another upset-spotting system, which using Pomeroy's numbers chooses the 10-, 11-, and 12-seeds rated closest to their first-round opponent, plus any other 10, 11, or 12 that is rated within a point (after adjusting for tempo) of their first-round opponent. Simple, perhaps, but over the past 10 tournaments, double-digit seeds that meed this criteria are 30-16 in the first-round (65.2% winning pct), and fully half (8) of the 16 losses were one-possession games. On the other hand, 10s, 11s, and 12s that did not meet this criteria had a 17-57 record (23.0%). This year, the teams meeting this criteria are Murray State, St. Mary's, Florida, and Iowa. My guess is two or three of those four teams will win. (And conveniently for my own pool-picking purposes, Florida and Iowa are on both of these possible upset lists.)


(Legal disclaimer: I assume absolutely no liability (legal, moral, or financial) if you try either of these systems and lose. I mean, what do you expect from an anonymous internet post?)

[El_Diablo]

11 St. Mary's over 6 Villanova.
11 Belmont over 6 Maryland.
8 Syracuse over 1 Gonzaga.

[BandAlum83]

I've been tracking my interpretation of the "Wisconsin Effect" since 2010. What I look for is teams, seeded 7 or better, in the bottom 50 in tempo and bottom 150 in NCSOS. In the past nine tournaments (as long as I've been tracking), there have been 21 such teams and 16 of them (more than 76%) have lost to teams seeded three seeds or more worse than them (e.g., 7 losing to 10; 1 losing to 4, etc.). Of the five such teams that didn't lose, two of them beat double-digit seeds by just one point (so as close to losing as possible without actually doing it).

This year there are four teams that meet the criteria: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Virginia. If the odds hold true (and I know it's just 21 games but it's a pretty powerful percentage), three of those four teams will be upset by teams seeded three or more below them. That would mean, e.g., St. Louis over Virginia Tech; Iowa over Cincinnati; Florida or Nevada over Michigan (or Montana, I suppose); Wisconsin or Kansas State over Virginia (or I guess Ole Miss/Oklahoma would certainly meet the criteria).

Maybe it's real, maybe it isn't, but the results have been astounding me for years.

I also have another upset-spotting system, which using Pomeroy's numbers chooses the 10-, 11-, and 12-seeds rated closest to their first-round opponent, plus any other 10, 11, or 12 that is rated within a point (after adjusting for tempo) of their first-round opponent. Simple, perhaps, but over the past 10 tournaments, double-digit seeds that meed this criteria are 30-16 in the first-round (65.2% winning pct), and fully half (8) of the 16 losses were one-possession games. On the other hand, 10s, 11s, and 12s that did not meet this criteria had a 17-57 record (23.0%). This year, the teams meeting this criteria are Murray State, St. Mary's, Florida, and Iowa. My guess is two or three of those four teams will win. (And conveniently for my own pool-picking purposes, Florida and Iowa are on both of these possible upset lists.)


(Legal disclaimer: I assume absolutely no liability (legal, moral, or financial) if you try either of these systems and lose. I mean, what do you expect from an anonymous internet post?)

Fascinating! Thanks for going on record with this!

In your first category, I do have 3 of the 4 losing to lower seeded teams (VT, Cincy and Michigan), but only Cincy losing to a seed 3 positions lower. I suppose if the brackets break differently, the lower seeds to beat VT and Michigan could be 3 or more spots lower.

In your second category, I have Iowa and Murray State winning in the first round. Iowa is a two-fer in your system! A winner by both categories. That's practically a Kedsy guarantee!

[fisheyes]

In one of my brackets I picked Syracuse to beat Gonzaga.

Well...that seems unlikely now that they suspended Howard from the team:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...e-ncaa-tourney

[duke4ever19]

I always have UNC lose in their first game.

Me too! I usually have three brackets: No.1 Duke wins the natty bracket, No.2 UNC loses their first or second game bracket, and No.3 the try and be unbiased, which more often than not, looks exactly like bracket No.1.