2019 South Region Thread (Virginia #1)

[pfrduke]

Discuss the teams and predict who will win here.

[Acymetric]

This is the toughest to predict. Half of my brain says Virginia, my heart and the other half of my brain think the first half is an idiot. I'm also just not sold on Tennessee as a legit contender. There are a lot of weak teams and tournament chokers in the top half (by seed) of this bracket. Could see Cincinnati making it to the Final Four...will need some time to settle on my vote for this one.

[gotoguy]

KSU and UT were both beaten last year by Loyola-Chicago and UVa plays similarly on offense and is better defensively. Plus K-State's best player was in a boot today on the selection show and his status is a ? for the next two weeks. So the Hoos break their glass ceiling.

[brevity]

I know the poll is limited to 15 options, but if ever there were a time to gather votes for a 16 seed...

Not much discussion yet, but I just wanted to point out that almost all discussion of and hand-wringing about Virginia's region last year was rendered moot quickly, and not just because of UMBC. Remember all that stuff about "It's so unfair that Virginia gets Kentucky and Arizona in the same half of their bracket"? That was funny. Arizona lost to Buffalo. Kentucky ended up playing its Sweet 16 game against the team that beat the team that beat Virginia, and Kentucky lost. I'm pretty sure no one, in DBR or the rest of the planet, took one look at the bracket on Selection Sunday and said "Kansas State should look out for Loyola Chicago."

It's a bit of a do-over with Virginia and Kansas State once again in the top half, and Cincinnati and Tennessee in the bottom half, but nobody knows anything.

[pfrduke]

First round schedule/Kenpom odds for the South:

Thursday
[26]Villanova (-1) vs. [31]St. Mary's (7:20, TBS)
[10]Purdue (-13) vs. [112]Old Dominion (9:50, TBS)

Friday
[32]Cincinnati (-1) vs. [36]Iowa (12:15, CBS)
[44]Mississippi (+1) vs. [38]Oklahoma (12:40, TruTV)
[23]Kansas State (-6) vs. [75]UC Irvine (2:00, TBS)
[8]Tennessee (-15) vs. [129]Colgate (2:45, CBS)
[1]Virginia (-22) vs. [167]Gardner-Webb (3:10, TruTV)
[12]Wisconsin (-5) vs. [43]Oregon (4:30, TBS)

[Phredd3]

People (not so much DBR, but pundits) seem to be gun-shy about picking Virginia, given recent history. I think they're going to be playing with a (very disciplined) chip on their shoulder and looking for a Duke rematch. I think this is the year to fear UVA.

[English]

First round schedule/Kenpom odds for the South:

Thursday
[26]Villanova (-1) vs. [31]St. Mary's (7:20, TBS)
[10]Purdue (-13) vs. [112]Old Dominion (9:50, TBS)

Friday
[32]Cincinnati (-1) vs. [36]Iowa (12:15, CBS)
[44]Mississippi (+1) vs. [38]Oklahoma (12:40, TruTV)
[23]Kansas State (-6) vs. [75]UC Irvine (2:00, TBS)
[8]Tennessee (-15) vs. [129]Colgate (2:45, CBS)
[1]Virginia (-22) vs. [167]Gardner-Webb (3:10, TruTV)
[12]Wisconsin (-5) vs. [43]Oregon (4:30, TBS)

So, 5-out-of-8 of these matchups are single-digit KenPom spreads, and 3 are single-point spreads? Sheesh. I would definitely not have guessed that coming in. The NCAAT does kooky things to teams that don't seem all that close in quality, so when they ARE close...look out.

[Acymetric]

First round schedule/Kenpom odds for the South:

Thursday
[26]Villanova (-1) vs. [31]St. Mary's (7:20, TBS)
[10]Purdue (-13) vs. [112]Old Dominion (9:50, TBS)

Friday
[32]Cincinnati (-1) vs. [36]Iowa (12:15, CBS)
[44]Mississippi (+1) vs. [38]Oklahoma (12:40, TruTV)
[23]Kansas State (-6) vs. [75]UC Irvine (2:00, TBS)
[8]Tennessee (-15) vs. [129]Colgate (2:45, CBS)
[1]Virginia (-22) vs. [167]Gardner-Webb (3:10, TruTV)
[12]Wisconsin (-5) vs. [43]Oregon (4:30, TBS)

This lines up quite nicely with my upset predictions...very comforting.

[DarkstarWahoo]

People (not so much DBR, but pundits) seem to be gun-shy about picking Virginia, given recent history. I think they're going to be playing with a (very disciplined) chip on their shoulder and looking for a Duke rematch. I think this is the year to fear UVA.

I'm one of those people, although I'm a Chicken Little even under good circumstances. A lot of it was the way they looked against FSU. Losing to FSU is nothing to be ashamed of, but they went into UMBC mode pretty early. There were about nine minutes left when Kyle Guy went barreling into an FSU defender looking to make a 10-point basket, and Jerome had some awful out-of-rhythm threes at the end (although those were late enough that he didn't have much choice). It was by far the worst I've seen them look this year.

Factor in that they haven't played two good halves against a decent opponent since...UNC in February? The "slow start and come back in the second half" tendencies seem to be playing with fire, and if they let Gardner-Webb hang around for a while, the pressure will really start to mount.

I'll feel a lot better if they can get through the opening weekend. That's when I think the pressure would lift.

[UrinalCake]

People (not so much DBR, but pundits) seem to be gun-shy about picking Virginia, given recent history. I think they're going to be playing with a (very disciplined) chip on their shoulder and looking for a Duke rematch. I think this is the year to fear UVA.

They may have a chip on their shoulder, but the question has always been whether their style of play can be effective in a tournament setting, where the pace automatically slows down and having guards who can create offense is so crucial. Three point shooting in large, unfamiliar arenas also tends to be more difficult. And when they fall behind they have a harder time coming back since lulling their opponents to sleep no longer works.

I do think that UVA has more of a traditional offense this season than in years past, but you can’t blame fans for taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to their tournament success.

[jhmoss1812]

I do think that UVA has more of a traditional offense this season than in years past, but you can’t blame fans for taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to their tournament success.

Definitely understand the wait-and-see approach by other fanbases. I definitely do the same when it comes to other teams. Fortunately, what people do in their brackets has no bearing on the actual outcome of games. In addition, if UVA does have a strong run in the tourney this year, I'll probably also win my brackets. It'll either be a win-win or a lose-lose situation for me.

[BandAlum83]

Definitely understand the wait-and-see approach by other fanbases. I definitely do the same when it comes to other teams. Fortunately, what people do in their brackets has no bearing on the actual outcome of games. In addition, if UVA does have a strong run in the tourney this year, I'll probably also win my brackets. It'll either be a win-win or a lose-lose situation for me.

In the metaphysical and quantum physics worlds can you really be sure about that?

[jhmoss1812]

In the metaphysical and quantum physics worlds can you really be sure about that?

I guess not lol. I almost put a question mark after that sentence instead of a period too.

[Phredd3]

I do think that UVA has more of a traditional offense this season than in years past, but you can’t blame fans for taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to their tournament success.

No blame assigned. I was simply expressing my (apparently) contrary view. And my sympathy lies especially with the UVA fan base. I know when examining the Duke draw, I look for demons around every bracket corner. After last year, UVA fans must be especially prone to finding such demons, even where they are least probable!

[Wahoo2000]

Here's something for the thread: If you ARE gun shy about picking UVA to the Final Four, go with a deep sleeper. Since 2014, UVA has been a 1 seed 4 times, a 2 seed once, and a 5 seed once. Here are the winners of those regions:

2014 - UVA 1 seed, region won by UConn (7 seed)
2015 - UVA 2 seed, region won by Michigan (7 seed)
2016 - UVA 1 seed, region won by Cuse (10 seed)
2017 - UVA 5 seed, region won by South Carolina (7 seed)
2018 - UVA 1 seed, region won by Loyola (11 seed)
2019 - UVA 1 seed, region won by..... ?

FYI - the 7 seed in the South this year is Cinci.... I'm just sayin' if you're a "trends" degenerate.... there MIGHT be some value there.


***FYI, while I don't charge for my picks, I'm happy to receive a 5% "finders fee" of your winnings ;-)

[Phredd3]

QED.

[BandAlum83]

Here's something for the thread: If you ARE gun shy about picking UVA to the Final Four, go with a deep sleeper. Since 2014, UVA has been a 1 seed 4 times, a 2 seed once, and a 5 seed once. Here are the winners of those regions:

2014 - UVA 1 seed, region won by UConn (7 seed)
2015 - UVA 2 seed, region won by Michigan (7 seed)
2016 - UVA 1 seed, region won by Cuse (10 seed)
2017 - UVA 5 seed, region won by South Carolina (7 seed)
2018 - UVA 1 seed, region won by Loyola (11 seed)
2019 - UVA 1 seed, region won by.... ?

FYI - the 7 seed in the South this year is Cinci... I'm just sayin' if you're a "trends" degenerate... there MIGHT be some value there.


***FYI, while I don't charge for my picks, I'm happy to receive a 5% "finders fee" of your winnings ;-)

In the immortal words of the fictional Spock: "Fascinating"

[jhmoss1812]

No blame assigned. I was simply expressing my (apparently) contrary view. And my sympathy lies especially with the UVA fan base. I know when examining the Duke draw, I look for demons around every bracket corner. After last year, UVA fans must be especially prone to finding such demons, even where they are least probable!

You should check out our home board. It's beyond comical. It's not PackPride bad but the paranoia is sky high.

[Wahoo2000]

You should check out our home board. It's beyond comical. It's not PackPride bad but the paranoia is sky high.

Indeed. The proverbial cat in a room full of rocking chairs is in a coma by comparison.

The tension is packed so tightly it has fused diamond-like and is uncut-able.

....crickets....

Ok, I think that's enough awful jokes for me... must be the nerves.

[BandAlum83]

Indeed. The proverbial cat in a room full of rocking chairs is in a coma by comparison.

The tension is packed so tightly it has fused diamond-like and is uncut-able.

...crickets...

Ok, I think that's enough awful jokes for me... must be the nerves.

Do you guys hang out on the UVA boards much, or is this your preferred location for talking college hoops?