2019 East Region Thread (Duke #1)

[KandG]

The South Carolina game, IMO, is the barometer for a truly terrible matchup. A streaking team playing right in their own backyard that was probably seeded too low with UNC fans in the same spot. That's annoying, objectively unfair for a #2 seed, and foreseeable. We don't have that situation here - really anywhere in our bracket.

That game against SC still gets me heated to this day...I thought we had a Final Four team at a minimum and likely a championship team peaking at the right time. Playing what amounted to a stacked road game in a hostile environment amplified by the presence of rival fans...ugh.

[Rich]

I won't further belabor my point, as this was way more than I intended on writing. But suffice to say, I see nothing particularly scary or irritating about our bracket, let alone offensive or downright wrong. In fact, I think our bracket is about as good as we can hope for, short of the NCAA changing the Tourney rules and just gifting us a title today.

- Chillin

It's over

[OldPhiKap]

That game against SC still gets me heated to this day...I thought we had a Final Four team at a minimum and likely a championship team peaking at the right time. Playing what amounted to a stacked road game in a hostile environment amplified by the presence of rival fans...ugh.

And in Charlotte a few years prior (Kyrie's return, and a second-round match with Michigan IIRC) it was the same thing. Full of Carolina fans, essentially a road game.

They should never put big rivals in the same pod. Same would go for UK-Louisville and others.

[ChillinDuke]

And in Charlotte a few years prior (Kyrie's return, and a second-round match with Michigan IIRC) it was the same thing. Full of Carolina fans, essentially a road game.

They should never put big rivals in the same pod. Same would go for UK-Louisville and others.

This brings up a good question: Can someone remind me what the advent of the Pod System was? I think Jay Bilas alluded to this on air yesterday. Did something happen where they grouped top teams together too early or something that got people up in arms so they created a Pod System?

My initial thought is that people would say it's too subjective to define "big rivals". But without knowing why we even use Pods, I will refrain from opining.

- Chillin

[devildeac]

And in Charlotte a few years prior (Kyrie's return, and a second-round match with Michigan IIRC) it was the same thing. Full of Carolina fans, essentially a road game.

They should never put big rivals in the same pod. Same would go for UK-Louisville and others.

Correct and correct. We were there but did not attend the Greenville debacle so I can't compare. None of our party of 4 complained *that* much about the cheater fans beyond our usual level of disgust, but they certainly weren't there to cheer the Devils on to a victory.

[Wahoo2000]

There are some really potentially mouth-watering matchups here. For me, the most notable would be Duke/VT and Duke/MSU.

If Robinson really is 100%, or close to it, and they escape the 1st weekend, he should have enough time back on the floor to reintegrate pretty well. I doubt the team play/cohesion will be as good as if he never left, or came back last week, but still should be pretty solid. Watching Jones match up on Robinson would just be amazing for me from a 1-v-1 perspective. I really do think Jones is one of the best defenders in the nation, but Robinson, when he's playing well, it SPECIAL. Like probably 1st team all ACC special if he hadn't gotten injured. Additionally, having him creates MUCH more freedom and flexibility for alexander-walker who looked like a COMPLETELY different player while Robinson was out. When those two were playing together and clicking, they were as dangerous and complete of an offensive backcourt as you'd find anywhere in the nation. Add in the fact that VT is an EXCELLENT 3pt shooting team and Blackshear really blossomed and gained confidence with a more featured role while Robinson was out, and VT has a 1-2-3 punch that is as good as anyone's...... except Duke. Despite ALL of that above, I can't pick against a fully healthy Duke squad. In fact, I don't think there's a team in the last 4 seasons I'd pick against this Duke squad. That confidence, combined with the very real possibility that Robinson may be much less than 100%, would keep me from picking VT to pull the upset in ANY of my brackets. Still, it has the potential to be an amazing game to watch.

If Duke does meet up with MSU in the regional final, I'll be riveted to watch Winston vs Jones matchup, as well as the battle for the boards. I think when things get tight, 2nd chance points are a HUGE key for Duke, and historically, MSU does a terrific job at owning the glass. I haven't run any of the numbers vis-a-vis kenpom rankings to see what the chances are of a Duke-MSU regional final, but I'm sure it's less likely than most people would imagine. Still, I'm really hoping to watch what should be another incredible matchup.

Other thoughts on the East-

- I have absolutely NO clue what to expect from LSU or Maryland. It wouldn't shock me for either to get to the regional final, or to be out in the first round. If *either* of those schools had great in-game strategy coaches, they'd probably be borderline 1-seeds. Instead, there's an all too likely possibility we'll get Yale or Belmont as Cinderellas into the S16.

- The "Pitino Bowl", for all the talk, I think will be a yawner. I know Louisville has had some epic chokes, but Minnesota's offense is dreadful. Beyond dreadful. And while their D is pretty good, Minnesota generates NOTHING from a turnover perspective, so chances for easy buckets just aren't there. I think Louisville is going to absolutely hammer them, which leads to...

-The most intriguing game in the round of 32 is a potential rematch of Louisville vs MSU (who they actually beat at home in OT during the ACC-B1G challenge). I'm thinking MSU pays them back in spades, but Louisville has shown at their best, they can compete with anybody. The question is whether Mack can get them to play consistently smart for a full 40 min. My money is on "no", but I wouldn't be shocked if they pulled the upset.

My "completely-unscientific-and-conjured-from-thin-air" region odds to advance to FF:
Duke - 70%
MSU - 15%
VT - 6%
LSU/Lou/MD - 8% (aggregate)
Other - 1%

[UrinalCake]

I have totally overlooked the fact that Louisville is in our region as well. Man, there’s another rematch I would rather avoid.

[CDu]

I have totally overlooked the fact that Louisville is in our region as well. Man, there’s another rematch I would rather avoid.

Well, as a 7 seed, it is highly unlikely we'd have to face them. And frankly, if they are our elite-8 opponent, I'd be thrilled.

[Acymetric]

I have totally overlooked the fact that Louisville is in our region as well. Man, there’s another rematch I would rather avoid.

I know in my brain that I should feel that way, but my heart would love to see the rematch just to see all the recaps of that epic comeback.

[Rich]

This brings up a good question: Can someone remind me what the advent of the Pod System was? I think Jay Bilas alluded to this on air yesterday. Did something happen where they grouped top teams together too early or something that got people up in arms so they created a Pod System?

My initial thought is that people would say it's too subjective to define "big rivals". But without knowing why we even use Pods, I will refrain from opining.

- Chillin

I believe it was so that higher ranked teams did not have the disadvantage of traveling to sites that were closer to the lower ranked team, at least for the first two rounds. This year there are pod games for the West and South regions in Hartford, for example.

[sagegrouse]

I have totally overlooked the fact that Louisville is in our region as well. Man, there’s another rematch I would rather avoid.

Well, as a 7 seed, it is highly unlikely we'd have to face them. And frankly, if they are our elite-8 opponent, I'd be thrilled.

I know in my brain that I should feel that way, but my heart would love to see the rematch just to see all the recaps of that epic comeback.

In general, because there is a better prospect for "shock and awe," I prefer to face teams in the NCAA's that haven't played Duke in the same season. Especially when we are the #1 seed.

[Kedsy]

In the end, Duke has to make 3s. I bet we see every team sagging the defense. They should play the FSU style defense. As long as opposing teams don't play FSU offense from the 2nd half and missed everything, the game should be close. If Duke makes 30-40% of their threes then they should win easily.

This season Duke has shot below 30% in 16 of our 34 games. In those 16 games we've gone 13-3. Two of the three losses were to a #1 seed who happens to be our arch-rival in which our best player was hurt and didn't play (and in one of them our starting center didn't play, either). The third loss was in overtime and both our starting PG and another starter didn't play. Others have already chimed in on this (and I'm by no means saying we can't lose), but it seems pretty clear that absent another major injury we won't have to make threes to win, against pretty much anyone.

That said, for those looking for something to annoy them, I don't see it even with an honest set of eyes. The South Carolina game, IMO, is the barometer for a truly terrible matchup. A streaking team playing right in their own backyard that was probably seeded too low with UNC fans in the same spot. That's annoying, objectively unfair for a #2 seed, and foreseeable. We don't have that situation here - really anywhere in our bracket. Va Tech is as close as I can get to irritated, but even that is 3 games away (for both teams) and integration of their PG is by no means a day-1 value add. It might end up being a godsend for them, but treating that hypothetical game as though it's immediately a value add for them is not using "honest eyes".

If you want to imagine DBR (and most of the rest of Duke-world) exploding, just think of the reaction if we have to play 6-seed Maryland in DC in the Elite Eight.

[Wahoo2000]

Just thought of this too - there's a real possibility that at least 2 of these fanbases get to DC for the regional semis and final:
-Maryland
-VT
-Louisville
Hopefully for Duke's sake, they have a ton of Blue Devil fans show up and keep it from feeling like a road game should 2 or even (gasp) all 3 of those teams get through.

[OldPhiKap]

Just thought of this too - there's a real possibility that at least 2 of these fanbases get to DC for the regional semis and final:
-Maryland
-VT
-Louisville
Hopefully for Duke's sake, they have a ton of Blue Devil fans show up and keep it from feeling like a road game should 2 or even (gasp) all 3 of those teams get through.

Duke has a huge alum base in the DC area. Not saying that we would outdraw Md or VT there, but I think we'd hold our own.

[Lurkingdukedog]

I'm just glad we're not in de Annapolis region.

That was actually a pretty amusing set of commercials with Charles, Spike and Samuel

[Lurkingdukedog]

I know in my brain that I should feel that way, but my heart would love to see the rematch just to see all the recaps of that epic comeback.

I think a rematch with Louisville has the possibility of turning out similarly in the rematch with Maryland in 2001. If you recall, the regular season game (gone in 60 seconds or whatever) pre-dated the huge come back in the national semi's -- Maryland was way up in the first half but by the end of the game, we beat them by double digits

[subzero02]

We are -175 to win the East Region according to http://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/f.../ncaam-futures. Michigan State is +400 and the 4 seed, Va. Tech is +1000 which is ahead of the 3 seed LSU who is +1100. By comparison, UNC is +200 to win the Midwest, Gonzaga +125 to win the West and UVA is +140 to win the South. The two most heavily favored 2 seeds to make the final four are Michigan and Kentucky, both at +275. We are +225 to win the title and are followed by Gonzaga(+500), UVA(+550), UNC(+800), Kentucky(+1200) and MSU (+1200).

[MChambers]

Duke has a huge alum base in the DC area. Not saying that we would outdraw Md or VT there, but I think we'd hold our own.

Plus, would anyone from Big Ten country travel all the way to DC? :-)

[DU82]

This brings up a good question: Can someone remind me what the advent of the Pod System was? I think Jay Bilas alluded to this on air yesterday. Did something happen where they grouped top teams together too early or something that got people up in arms so they created a Pod System?

My initial thought is that people would say it's too subjective to define "big rivals". But without knowing why we even use Pods, I will refrain from opining.

- Chillin

The pod system started in 2002, after the west region sub-regional in, I believe Boise, featured three teams from the Maryland/DC area, including the Terps. Somebody finally realized that the first two rounds didn’t need to be held in the same region as the next two rounds. It also reduced overall travel significantly.

( It probably wouldn’t have been as big a deal if it had been held in Alaska. Gary Williams would have felt at home.)

[UrinalCake]

Others have already chimed in on this (and I'm by no means saying we can't lose), but it seems pretty clear that absent another major injury we won't have to make threes to win, against pretty much anyone.

I think it would gloriously fitting if a program with a reputation of basing its style on “slow white guys shooting threes,” which is of course inaccurate to begin with, wound up winning a title by shooting the lowest three point percentage of any champion in history, led by the most athletic player in history.