2019 East Region Thread (Duke #1)

[BandAlum83]

UCF is massive.

If we advanced past our first round opponent, it'll be interesting to see how Zion fares against trees.

I would describe them as tall, not massive.

Zion is massive.

[CDu]

I’m not sure Florida St is better than LSU. When they played on a “neutral” court in Florida in November, Fla St was down by 9 late and came back and won in OT. And like Duke, some of LSUs best players are freshmen, so they’ve gotten better as the season has gone on. I worry more about the talent/athleticism of LSU and their potential to make a deep run. Granted, they are playing without their coach, but I’m pretty sure they will have a “nothing to lose” approach.

FSU has played better than LSU this season per KenPom and TRank. So I would suggest that FSU is at least equal, and probably better. They surely aren’t discernibly worse than LSU. And they are FAR better defensively than LSU.

I would also note that FSU was playing without Phil Cofer in that game, to go along with your notes that (a) FSU won and (b) LSU won’t have its coach.

And again, us facing LSU would mean that we would be in the Elite-8 and that we wouldn’t be facing MSU.

[duke2x]

Would anyone possibly have a tip about parking for Columbia on Friday? It is our spring break and I got lucky in that it’s on the way home to Fl. from Asheville where I spent the week. I can’t find a parking pass. Thanks!

Per the Colonial Life website, there are no passes. There are a lot of garages around the arena. It sounds a lot like Charlotte's Spectrum (nee Time-Warner) or Greenville's Bon Secours arenas. I would just get there early. Parkopedia says a lot of them are a 20-30 minute walk.

[UrinalCake]

Nick Ward - I see that he is back for MSU, but is he playing at his previous level? He strikes me as one of the few players in college who could physically stand up to Zion.

Also, how big a deal is that bench guard that got hurt for MSU?

[CDu]

Nick Ward - I see that he is back for MSU, but is he playing at his previous level? He strikes me as one of the few players in college who could physically stand up to Zion.

Also, how big a deal is that bench guard that got hurt for MSU?

Well, Langford wasn’t a bench guard. He was a starter averaging 15 oof. But he missed most of the conference season and all of the tourney, so their resume was largely built without him.

As for Ward, he is bulky enough to compete with Zion, but not nearly mobile enough to stay in front of Zion.

[UrinalCake]

Well, Langford wasn’t a bench guard. He was a starter averaging 15 oof. But he missed most of the conference season and all of the tourney, so their resume was largely built without him.

Sorry, I was referring to Kyle Ahrens who got hurt in the B10 final.

Also, that was an excellent autocorrect. Zion is going to cause more than 15 “oofs” to be spewed by our opponents 8-)

[flyingdutchdevil]

FSU has played better than LSU this season per KenPom and TRank. So I would suggest that FSU is at least equal, and probably better. They surely aren’t discernibly worse than LSU. And they are FAR better defensively than LSU.

I would also note that FSU was playing without Phil Cofer in that game, to go along with your notes that (a) FSU won and (b) LSU won’t have its coach.

And again, us facing LSU would mean that we would be in the Elite-8 and that we wouldn’t be facing MSU.

This cannot be overstated. LSU DOESN'T HAVE A COACH!!!!! They may win against bunnies, but against legitimate, Power 5 teams with high seeding, I can't see them winning.

[MChambers]

Nick Ward - I see that he is back for MSU, but is he playing at his previous level? He strikes me as one of the few players in college who could physically stand up to Zion.

Also, how big a deal is that bench guard that got hurt for MSU?

Ward is not yet back at his previous level, but his replacement, Tillman, is very good.

Ahrens was already suffering back problems before he hurt his ankle, so he wasn't playing at a high level. But MSU is pretty thin on the perimeter. When they lost at L'ville, Winston got in foul trouble and even fouled out. If that happens again, MSU is in big trouble.

[OldPhiKap]

This cannot be overstated. LSU DOESN'T HAVE A COACH!!!!! They may win against bunnies, but against legitimate, Power 5 teams with high seeding, I can't see them winning.

Interim Coach Tony Benford has been in coaching since 1992, so it's not like they are without someone at the helm.

[CDu]

Sorry, I was referring to Kyle Ahrens who got hurt in the B10 final.

Also, that was an excellent autocorrect. Zion is going to cause more than 15 “oofs” to be spewed by our opponents 8-)

Haha, yeah, I meant PPG. But the autocorrect is much funnier.

As for Ahrens, I think the impact would be that they just aren't terribly deep. They have just 6 guys left from their rotation back in December. And 3 of them are bigs (Ward, Goins, and Tillman). They will probably bring someone like freshman Gabe Brown (RSCI #100 in 2018) or freshman Foster Loyer (#77 in 2018) into the main rotation now. But it's a pretty short rotation they'll be playing.

Basically, MSU is entirely reliant on one player (Winston). If he's out, they are pretty bad. If he's on the floor, they stand a fighting chance against anyone. Everyone else on the perimeter is a role player who looks to feed off whatever Winston can create. It's a pretty limited offensive team that happens to have a wizard for a playmaker.

[sagegrouse]

Would anyone possibly have a tip about parking for Columbia on Friday? It is our spring break and I got lucky in that it’s on the way home to Fl. from Asheville where I spent the week. I can’t find a parking pass. Thanks!

If you're spending the night, why don't you just Uber it or Lyft it from your hotel or other attraction? (Don't ask me, I grew up in Charleston, and I can't think of anything I'd want to see there ).

[rocketeli]

If you're spending the night, why don't you just Uber it or Lyft it from your hotel or other attraction? (Don't ask me, I grew up in Charleston, and I can't think of anything I'd want to see there ).

Just don't make a mistake and go to Columbus instead. Truly nothing you'd want to see there.

[BandAlum83]

Haha, yeah, I meant PPG. But the autocorrect is much funnier.

As for Ahrens, I think the impact would be that they just aren't terribly deep. They have just 6 guys left from their rotation back in December. And 3 of them are bigs (Ward, Goins, and Tillman). They will probably bring someone like freshman Gabe Brown (RSCI #100 in 2018) or freshman Foster Loyer (#77 in 2018) into the main rotation now. But it's a pretty short rotation they'll be playing.

Basically, MSU is entirely reliant on one player (Winston). If he's out, they are pretty bad. If he's on the floor, they stand a fighting chance against anyone. Everyone else on the perimeter is a role player who looks to feed off whatever Winston can create. It's a pretty limited offensive team that happens to have a wizard for a playmaker.

So Duke would only need Tre/Jordan/Cam to focus on one high usage player and dare the other four on the floor to beat our other defensive monsters?

I'll take that.

[devildeac]

Just don't make a mistake and go to Columbus instead. Truly nothing you'd want to see there.

Paging Mike Corey...

[OldPhiKap]

Just don't make a mistake and go to Columbus instead. Truly nothing you'd want to see there.

I'm just glad we're not in de Annapolis region.

[KandG]

This cannot be overstated. LSU DOESN'T HAVE A COACH!!!!! They may win against bunnies, but against legitimate, Power 5 teams with high seeding, I can't see them winning.

I think most of the comments rationally evaluating LSU's prospects are good, and they've indeed got a lot of noise surrounding them now. Nevertheless, they scare me more than anyone in our region (probably irrationally) simply because their upside with Waters and Reid in a one-game scenario is so high...even if it's unlikely they ever hit it.

I admit to being influenced irrationally in this way by LSU's victory at Rupp, which was very impressive. Many talented, flaky teams in sports seem to get their act together when motivated by an opponent as heavily favored and hyped as we are.

All that said, I agree with most that we're still more likely to see MSU than LSU, and that Virginia Tech may yet be the toughest game we face in this region.

[ChillinDuke]

As a general note (and an annual tradition), I find it amusing (in a genial way, not in a condescending way) how people over-parse the storylines as to how "scary" or "bad a matchup" certain hypothetical teams are for Duke or how "Duke got shafted" in some way. I'm fine with it because it's what makes the Tourney so fun and what makes the general public so interested as the storylines can more or less be created to suit any matchup in any round at any time.

In practicality, I find the focus on MSU and Duke being in the same region to be totally ridiculous. First of all, we're an incredibly large amount of games away from that hypothetical matchup to be truly peeved by it. Second of all, the remaining #2 seeds are Michigan, Kentucky, and Tennessee - does anyone really want another one of those teams over MSU? Certainly not UK, I imagine. It's the NCAAT, at some point we're going to have to earn it and beat someone. They can't all be NC Central and/or North Dakota State. So the focus (in the media and by a few on the Board) on this Duke/MSU pairing seems silly to me and more meant to drum up conversation since the bubble debate isn't as loud this year.

Further to my general point, when we hit the Tourney Season(s), I find it most helpful to focus only on our 4-team pod and potentially on our 8-team pod location insofar as are there other teams looming in our pod that can skew the fanbase (read: UNC). From those perspectives I don't see any reason whatsoever to be upset, scared, or feel any negative emotion whatsoever to our immediate draw. We play a play-in winner that can be no better than KP #199 (and NCCU is worse than 300!). Our 2nd round matchups are either against #37 or #46, either of which would be ranked tenth if they were in the ACC, worse than both Clemson and NC State, neither of whom made the Tourney and worse than Syracuse who we just beat only a few days ago by 12 pts. While Johnny Dawkins is an uncomfortable coincidence, he's already been fired at one school since leaving Duke and hasn't exactly worked UCF into a juggernaut [yet] (23-8, 13-6). Tacko Fall is an interesting storyline as one of the only players that Zion could face this year that actually weighs more than him (310 lbs per KP), but as an actual player does not present some sort of Goliath at only 10.9 ppg and 7.3 rpg, mainly because he doesn't play a ton at 24.8 mpg (2.8 fouls per game). And if he somehow presented some sort of major problem for us, we (as we know full well from the postgame threads after losses) have plenty of bench depth that doesn't see the court that could help foul him - since Tacko shoots 36.1% from the FT line - that is not a typo. Others have rightly (IMO) pointed this out, but BJ Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins are certainly scarier to me than Tacko, at least from a numbers perspective (scoring, 3pt %, rebounds, etc) - I haven't watched them though. And this entire mini analysis requires them to first win a game that they aren't even favored in (KP 47%; +1 underdog per Vegas open, moved to a pick 'em currently).

Lastly, on the 8-team broader pod location, I think getting UVA, Gardner-Webb, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma is probably the most inoffensive of all the pairings we could ask for.

I won't further belabor my point, as this was way more than I intended on writing. But suffice to say, I see nothing particularly scary or irritating about our bracket, let alone offensive or downright wrong. In fact, I think our bracket is about as good as we can hope for, short of the NCAA changing the Tourney rules and just gifting us a title today.

- Chillin

[jhmoss1812]

Let's go Billikens!!! I'd be perfectly fine with VT's most recent tourney win coming in 2007.

[DavidBenAkiva]

As a general note (and an annual tradition), I find it amusing (in a genial way, not in a condescending way) how people over-parse the storylines as to how "scary" or "bad a matchup" certain hypothetical teams are for Duke or how "Duke got shafted" in some way. I'm fine with it because it's what makes the Tourney so fun and what makes the general public so interested as the storylines can more or less be created to suit any matchup in any round at any time.

...

I won't further belabor my point, as this was way more than I intended on writing. But suffice to say, I see nothing particularly scary or irritating about our bracket, let alone offensive or downright wrong. In fact, I think our bracket is about as good as we can hope for, short of the NCAA changing the Tourney rules and just gifting us a title today.

- Chillin

I'm not scared of any team per se, just trying to look at the bracket with an honest set of eyes. Villanova had a pretty rough path on their way to the National Title last year and made the rest of the field look silly. They had to face West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas, and then Michigan from the Sweet 16 through the Title. Compare that with Michigan's path to the National Title game. You can only play the teams in front of you. When I look at the bracket, I can easily see how Duke could win their way to Minneapolis. I also I don't want to count out the possibility that there are several teams that could upset Duke.

[ChillinDuke]

I'm not scared of any team per se, just trying to look at the bracket with an honest set of eyes. Villanova had a pretty rough path on their way to the National Title last year and made the rest of the field look silly. They had to face West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas, and then Michigan from the Sweet 16 through the Title. Compare that with Michigan's path to the National Title game. You can only play the teams in front of you. When I look at the bracket, I can easily see how Duke could win their way to Minneapolis. I also I don't want to count out the possibility that there are several teams that could upset Duke.

I agree with you. And your last sentence I think is the right way of putting it - easily see a path to Minny, but always a chance at an upset.

That said, for those looking for something to annoy them, I don't see it even with an honest set of eyes. The South Carolina game, IMO, is the barometer for a truly terrible matchup. A streaking team playing right in their own backyard that was probably seeded too low with UNC fans in the same spot. That's annoying, objectively unfair for a #2 seed, and foreseeable. We don't have that situation here - really anywhere in our bracket. Va Tech is as close as I can get to irritated, but even that is 3 games away (for both teams) and integration of their PG is by no means a day-1 value add. It might end up being a godsend for them, but treating that hypothetical game as though it's immediately a value add for them is not using "honest eyes".

- Chillin